Weekend Predictions: Don’t expect a winning sweep from Georgia, Tech and Falcons
Weekend Predictions has done much better picking against the spread for NFL games than college. I’m tempted to start selecting more pro games, but I suspect that wouldn’t line up with the interest of readers. So, I’m willing to continue embarrassing myself on Saturdays for your benefit.
You’re welcome.
Bills (-4½) at Falcons
Rod Beard, the AJC’s senior editor for pro sports, provided an update on how Falcons players are doing in fantasy football. Since people are always fascinated to hear about someone else’s fantasy team, I’ll tell you that I’ve had Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts (resurgent) on my bench in favor of Brock Bowers (struggling). My fantasy football decisions haven’t been any better than my picks.
The Bills are 4-1, scoring 40 more points than they’ve allowed. They won at Baltimore in Week 1. I suppose they are a great team, but they don’t look like it because of a porous run defense. The Falcons are built to take advantage of that. I’m taking them with the points, though they’ll lose straight up.
No. 10 Georgia (-3½) at Auburn
The “Hugh Freeze hot seat” Google search is getting a lot more results nowadays. Auburn’s coach said he doesn’t pay attention to the speculation, suggested God is writing his story and insisted the Tigers are “getting closer every game.” I don’t see any evidence that those things are true. Freeze’s $15.4 million buyout won’t be an issue if Auburn’s shot-callers decide they want to fire the team’s third football coach since 2020.
Run defense is one thing the Tigers are very good at. The Bulldogs have been just OK running the ball. Georgia coach Kirby Smart wants to change that, but deep passes should get better results against Auburn. UGA quarterback Gunner Stockton has been inconsistent when throwing long. Georgia will cover the spread because he’ll be better at it in this game.
Virginia Tech (+14½) at No. 13 Georgia Tech
USA Today declared that Yellow Jackets coach Brent Key ($4.5 million salary) is No. 2 among underpaid college football coaches behind Indiana’s Curt Cignetti ($8.5 million). If that’s true, it’s because collusion to hold down player compensation artificially inflates the market for coaches. I’m not pocket-watching coaches. I’m just saying you never see lists of underpaid college football players, but you hear a lot about how they are getting more money than they should.
Georgia Tech tends to underperform as a big underdog. Virginia Tech tends to underperform, period. The Hokies were 2-0 with interim coach Philip Montgomery before losing last week to Wake Forest as seven-point favorites. I’m thinking that, after the bye week, Key will have the Jackets sharper than they were at Wake Forest. Georgia Tech is my pick.
Appalachian State (-1½) at Georgia State
At this point, I’m only providing my pick in the Georgia State game so that you’ll know to expect the opposite. My record is 1-3 against the spread in games involving the Panthers. I’ve lost twice when picking them as big road underdogs. I lost when picking against them as big home underdogs versus James Madison last weekend. I’m backing the Panthers this time on the theory that last week’s defensive effort is the beginning of a turnaround.
Other college games of interest
Florida (+7½) at No. 5 Texas A&M
I’ve been using the wrong metrics to evaluate the Gators. I really should just figure out how close coach Billy Napier is to getting fired. Every time it looks like he’s done, Napier wins a big game. Last weekend, it was a convincing victory over Texas in which Florida’s offense suddenly looked great against an elite defense. I’ve underrated the Aggies all season, but not this time. They are my pick.
No. 6 Oklahoma (-1½) vs. Texas (Dallas)
Texas coach Steve Sarkisian to reporters about the loss at Florida: “Take the other 135 (FBS teams) and have them go play at Ohio State and at The Swamp. See how they do.” Winning at OSU is hard unless you’re Michigan, but South Florida won at Florida last month. Bold move for Sarkisian to talk about Texas like it’s any other program. He’ll be in deeper trouble with Texas boosters after the Sooners cover the spread.
No. 8 Alabama (-2½) at No. 14 Missouri
The Crimson Tide followed their victory at Georgia with a 30-14 decision over Vanderbilt. They are 12-2 when coach Kalen DeBoer wears his black hoodie. Mizzou coach Eli Drinkwitz jumped on the SEC coaches’ teleconference to ask DeBoer if he would wear “the black hoodie of death” for this game. DeBoer was noncommittal, but he’s obviously going to wear it because why give Bama fans another reason to hate him if he loses?
South Carolina (+9½) at No. 11 LSU
Brian Kelly said he left Notre Dame for LSU because he wanted to coach against the big boys. Now, the pressure is on Kelly to win big after he got a rich NIL budget this season and landed a great transfer class. Everyone knows he reacts well in these situations. South Carolina has covered the spread in five straight games as a road underdog with two straight-up wins (Clemson and Kentucky). Make it six wins in a row ATS for the Gamecocks.
Other NFL games of interest
49ers (-2½) at Buccaneers
If you’re savoring the Bill Belichick pile on, here’s another shovel. After flopping as Belichick’s QB in New England, Mac Jones looks like an All-Pro with Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers have won three games in a row with Jones filling in for injured Brock Purdy and passing for 905 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception. The Buccaneers scored the go-ahead points in the final minute of all three of their victories. Their luck will run out this weekend. The 49ers are the pick.
Patriots (-3½) at Saints
The Patriots are starting to climb out of the hole that Belichick dug for them. They followed their blowout victory over Carolina with a comeback win at previously undefeated Buffalo. The Saints celebrated like they won the Super Bowl after beating the Giants on Sunday to end an eight-game losing streak dating to last season. The good times will end this weekend when the Pats cover.
Cowboys (-3½) at Panthers
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones flipped off Jets fans during Sunday’s Dallas victory, then told reporters he meant to give a thumbs-up to his team’s fans. Jones has been symbolically flipping off Cowboys fans for years with the way he’s managed the team. The Panthers are 2-0 at home after beating the Dolphins on Sunday. The Cowboys will end that streak while covering the spread.
Last week: 4-7. Season: 32-34.
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