Weekend Predictions: Falcons look like odd team out among locals

If you really think about it, Weekend Predictions is just like Bijan Robinson. He’s the best player in football, and I’m the best picker. Robinson makes a lot more money because no one wants to pay to watch me do my job badly.

I’m still treading water with my picks against the spread. Kudos to the Falcons for making me look better by comparison. Joke’s on me for trusting them the past two weeks.

Falcons (+5½) at Patriots

Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. on the team’s struggling offense: “We’re right where we want to be. People are doubting us. People don’t think that we can get it done.” I think it would be better for the Falcons to be in a place where people are praising them because they know they can get it done. No one is saying that about the NFL’s No. 28 scoring offense.

Kirk Cousins wasn’t good against the Dolphins. Penix (knee) could return this week. He still has the worst performance by a Falcons QB this season. No matter the QB, the Falcons will try to run the ball against a team good at stopping it. They’ll lose, but offer enough resistance to cover the spread.

No. 5 Georgia (-7½) vs. Florida in Jacksonville, Florida

Longtime Florida assistant Billy Gonzales told reporters he agreed to be the interim head coach so he could “provide guidance” for players and be “another father figure.” Per the AP, Gonzales paused before adding: “Obviously, I like winning. We want to win.” Even interim coaches can’t risk making the customers angry by suggesting that the job is about anything other than victory.

Last time we saw the Bulldogs, they were struggling to stop Ole Miss. The Gators might do something similar if they had Lane Kiffin calling the plays and tutoring quarterback DJ Lagway. In Gainesville, they are hoping that’s what happens next year. Ending the losing streak vs. Georgia at four games would be a big morale boost, too. That’s not happening: Bulldogs will cover.

No. 8 Georgia Tech (-5½) at North Carolina State

Tech Brent Key said the Yellow Jackets (8-0, 5-0 ACC) are only halfway through the season. Even I can do that math: Key is planning to go to the College Football Playoff. Jackets players weren’t thinking about the CFP at all before Key broke the coach’s code by not taking it one game at a time.

The Jackets haven’t wobbled since escaping Wake Forest with a win. They buried Virginia Tech and Syracuse early and trailed only briefly during the victory at Duke. Meanwhile, N.C. State (4-4, 1-3) has lost four consecutive games against power conference foes largely because of its bad defense. The Jackets will cover the spread again.

Other college games of interest

South Carolina (+12½) at No. 7 Ole Miss

Kiffin hasn’t said much publicly about the open Florida and LSU jobs. His players said Kiffin told them to take the speculation as a compliment to them and the program. I doubt Kiffin thinks it’s a compliment to his program when other coaches court Ole Miss players in the transfer portal. The Rebels might be flat for this game, but if so, I don’t think the Gamecocks can score enough points to take advantage. Ole Miss is my pick.

No. 9 Vanderbilt (+2½) at No. 20 Texas

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian slammed a report in the Athletic that said the coach’s representatives let NFL teams know he’s interested in any potential opening. Reporter Dianna Russini appeared on “The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz” and said she didn’t get the story from Sarkisian or his agents. Why does this stuff always play out like bad tradecraft. Finally, Vandy is an underdog that I like.

No. 18 Oklahoma (+3½) at No. 14 Tennessee

The Rocky Top Insider headline says: “Josh Heupel Named on LSU Football Writer’s Hot Board for Tigers Job.” I spent no time deciphering what any of that means because the answer might make me weep. The loser of this game could go on to finish as the three-loss SEC team that the CFP committee lets in to juice the TV ratings. Oklahoma is another ‘dog I’m backing.

No. 15 Virginia (-4½) at California

It would help the Jackets if Virginia (7-1, 4-0) loses to an ACC opponent in an ACC game (the loss to N.C. State didn’t count). Maybe Virginia’s magic dust stops working this week. The latest lucky escape: UNC was inches short on a game-winning two-point try. As much as I love home ‘dogs, I don’t buy that Cal is any good. Virginia will cover the spread.

Kentucky (+10½) at Auburn

If Auburn coach Hugh Freeze is a lame duck, then he at least can keep alive the tradition of beating Kentucky before he’s gone. The Tigers are 19-1 against the Wildcats from the 1967 season on. Kentucky Sports Radio’s Matt Jones said there’s an “85 to 90% chance” that coach Mark Stoops will be fired. I heard it’s actually 92.7%. The Tigers are my pick.

Other NFL games of interest

Panthers (+13½) at Packers

Carolina coach Dave Canales said his team’s 40-9 home loss to the Bills showed that it needed to get back to the fundamentals. Maybe it showed who the Panthers really are. Quarterback Bryce Young (ankle) didn’t play against the Bills. He wouldn’t have done anything about the 245 rushing yards allowed. It won’t matter if Young returns for this game. Packers are the pick.

Saints (+14) at Rams

The Saints are terrible. They have the worst point differential in the NFC (minus-81). They’ve lost hope that Spencer Rattler is the QB to save them (rookie Tyler Shough will start this week). This obviously is setting things up for the Saints to knock the Falcons out of the playoffs by winning the regular-season finale. Shough isn’t bad, but facing L.A.’s defense in his first start is a tough assignment. I’m taking the Rams to cover.

Chiefs (-2½) at Bills

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes to media: “They don’t like us.” He was talking about Bills fans, but it’s true anywhere the NFL’s most annoying team goes. Unfortunately, the Chiefs got their act together with three consecutive wins by a total margin of 89-24. The Bills used the bye to regroup after the loss to the Falcons. I like them as home ‘dogs.