3 intriguing Falcons prop bets against Tampa
As you’ll read in the legalese at the bottom of the story, this is not professional gambling advice.
It’s not even really advice.
But we do love a creative way to look at a game, and Vegas offers plenty opportunity for that.
So let’s take a stroll through some interesting numbers set for Sunday’s season-opener in Atlanta — where the Falcons are currently considered a 2.5-point underdog against the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
We picked three and filed them under “easy,” “interesting” and “out there.”
EASY: Over/under 47.5 total points
The Falcons won both matchups with the Bucs in 2024, and both games (a 36-30 overtime affair in Week 5 and a 31-26 nail-biter in Week 8) crushed this number.
More context: The Falcons had a healthy Kirk Cousins under center at that point. And a healthy Kaleb McGary, for that matter.
That said, the Atlanta offense did average 32 points in Michael Penix Jr.’s three starts at the end of the season. But it’d be fair to expect a little rust from both offenses — neither Penix nor Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield played a single exhibition snap.
Nevertheless: I’m taking the over.
INTERESTING: Kyle Pitts, 40+ receiving yards
This will be the year Kyle Pitts breaks out! Again!
In all seriousness, Pitts has remained healthy after missing some summer activities with a foot injury. Penix essentially started training camp by saying he planned to turn to the fifth-year tight end early and often in his first full season as a starter.
The historical numbers? Well … Pitts hasn’t averaged more than 40 receiving yards since his rookie year, but he did eclipse the mark seven times last season.
Against Tampa: 91 and 88 yards, his two highest totals of the year.
That last part is plenty intriguing … but I have trust issues. Under.
OUT THERE: Bijan Robinson: 75.5 rushing yards, 21.5 receiving yards
Everyone loves Bijan, but stay with me on these under/over plays.
The Bucs (sort of) kept Atlanta’s star running back in check in 2024, holding him below his average of 111 total yards per game.
- Matchup 1: 61 rushing yards, 16 receiving
- Matchup 2: 63 rushing yards, 43 receiving
That was with a healthy McGary on the right side of the O-line, where the Falcons ran the ball a league-leading 14.4% of the time last year. It’s also worth considering Robinson charted a *total* of 20 receiving yards in Penix’s three starts.
This feels like a trap, especially in Week 1. The heart says overs all around, though.
Odds are sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM, and are subject to change. The content provided is intended solely for informational and entertainment purposes. It does not constitute professional advice, or the promotion or endorsement of gambling in any form.
Gambling is illegal in Georgia. It is your responsibility to ensure that your activities follow local laws. If you or someone you know is seeking help for a gambling problem, contact 1-800-GAMBLER.
About the Author
Tyler Estep hosts the AJC Win Column, Atlanta's new weekly destination for all things sports. He also shepherds the Sports Daily and Braves Report newsletters to your inbox.
