After 89 games, the most recent nine in a disastrous homestand, it feels entirely reasonable to say that it just isn’t going to happen for the 2025 Braves.
It wasn’t so long ago that a second-half rally seemed possible. It was, in fact, two weeks ago, after the Braves had won the first two games of a four-game series against the Mets in New York to improve to 37-41. They were six games out of the final wild-card spot.
But since then they’ve lost nine of 11 to fall to 39-50. They lost seven of nine in a crucial homestand.
And what reason is there to hope or believe now?
Not in a starting rotation that is without Chris Sale (60-day IL until late August), Spencer Schwellenbach (transferred to the 60-day IL on Sunday), A.J. Smith-Shawver (out for the season) and Reynaldo López (return this season uncertain).
Not in a bullpen that figures to see increased wear with the declining Bryce Elder, struggling rookie Didier Fuentes and an as-yet undetermined fifth starter in the rotation.
Not in a lineup that was supposed to return to form from a down 2024 season but can’t be trusted to score more than three runs in a game.
The nine-game homestand, tied for the longest of the season, seemed a lot like a look into the remainder of the season. In two starts by Elder and one by Fuentes, they contributed a total of 10⅔ innings and gave up a combined 15 earned runs. The Braves hit .175 with runners in scoring position, striking out 19 times in 57 at-bats.
The Braves were 2-7, including a weekend sweep at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles. They incurred three more one-run losses, their specialty. And the homestand included six games against two teams (the Los Angeles Angels and the Orioles) that were at or under .500 and were without their managers, the Orioles having fired theirs and the Angels with Ron Washington out on medical leave.
Over the nine games, with potentially the season on the line, the Braves scored two or fewer runs six times.
The Braves were six games out of the final wild-card spot after beating the Mets in the first two games of the four-game series in New York. And they were seven back when they began their homestand. But after getting dragged by the Phillies, Angels and Orioles, they embarked for a three-game series with the Athletics in Sacramento even farther behind the last wild-card spot (nine games) and with more teams to pass (six) and less time to make up ground.
It would seem that this is where the Braves’ seven-year postseason streak will come to an end. This mark of consistent excellence is praiseworthy and distinctive. It is the third longest active run in the majors, following the Los Angeles Dodgers at 12 and the Houston Astros at eight.
It’s the product of a franchise that has drafted and developed well and made smart choices in free agency and the trade market. But the streak almost certainly will be felled by the truly staggering number of injuries to the starting rotation, the failure to adequately replenish the bullpen in the offseason and, most surely, the continued shortfall in offensive production.
It will be the responsibility of President of Baseball Operations and General Manager Alex Anthopoulos, who dismissed hitting coach Kevin Seitzer after last year’s dip and hired Tim Hyers as his replacement, to fix this problem.
After their record-setting 2023, the Braves returned to the pack in 2024 and, rather than regain some of their clout, have only continued to drop. They led MLB in runs scored (among a number of categories) in 2023 with 947, or 5.8 per game. In 2024, they were 15th with 704 runs, or 4.3 per game. Through Sunday, they were 24th with 357, 4.0 per game.
Some of the pieces have changed, but not the most important ones, namely Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna and Austin Riley (though Acuña has missed much of the season returning from his ACL tear).
If the Braves were averaging half a run more than they are now, chances are they would not be 11-22 in one-run games, the most one-run losses in the majors and the third-worst winning percentage in such games through Sunday.
Even if they were merely 17-16 in one-run games, their record would be 45-44. Perhaps the Braves could try to hang on until Sale and Schwellenbach returned from, respectively, a fractured rib cage and a fractured elbow.
But it’s markedly less probable at 39-50.
Only one team has made the postseason after posting 39 or fewer wins through 89 games, according to Stathead, and that was a New York Mets team that finished 82-79 in 1973. That win total almost surely won’t cut it in the National League wild-card chase this season.
It’s been a good run. A great run, even.
But, from this vantage point, it surely looks done.
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