The Mets were foolhardy. They had little to show for the mountains of money they spent on free agents. The Braves were sensible. They won six consecutive division titles while avoiding committing big money even for their own free agents.
That was before. Now, the Mets are surging with players they signed to big money as free agents while the Braves struggle. The Braves once were the class of the East. Now, the Mets are their measuring stick.
The Mets are in town to play three games. Winning the series “would be huge,” Braves outfielder Michael Harris II said before the series opener Tuesday.
“It would be a good confidence boost against a tough opponent in our division,” Harris said.
The Braves got off to a good start. They tied the score with three runs in the eighth inning, then won 5-4 in the 10th. The victory left the Braves 12 games behind the Mets in the National League East and 6½ games back in the wild-card standings.
The Mets didn’t get much from their highly paid stars in the opener other than Juan Soto’s solo homer in the first inning. The game was the first of seven for the Braves versus the Mets over 10 days. The chances are good that the Mets will get production from more of the players they signed to rich, long-term contracts as free agents.
The Mets are rolling now that the money has translated to wins. They won 101 games in 2022, good for second in the division behind the Braves, before losing in the wild-card round. The Mets sneaked into last year’s playoffs by beating the Braves in the penultimate game. The Mets advanced to the National League Championship Series while the Braves were swept by the Padres in the wild-card round.
The Mets reloaded by signing Soto to a record $765 million contract in December. Soto and two other players who signed significant free agent deals, Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte, rank among the top six Mets hitters. Another free agent signee, right-hander Kodai Senga, is the MLB leader in adjusted ERA. Mets closer Edwin Diaz’s $102 million contract is the biggest ever for a relief pitcher (he’s got 15 saves in 16 chances this season).
The smaller-market Braves used a different route to build their roster. They’ve signed several players to long-term contract extensions before they reach free agency. They filled in gaps with short-term deals for free agents. That strategy paid off as they dominated the East with players who cost a lot less than the top free agents.
The forecast is cloudier now that too many of those core players have underperformed since the start of the 2024 season. The conservative approach to free agency limits the Braves from maximizing talent acquisition. They don’t pay free agents top money for long-term deals, and they balked at paying market rate for three of their star players who recently made it to free agency.
Ex-Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman signed with the Dodgers for $162 million over six years in March 2022. He’s produced a 156 adjusted OPS since the start of the 2022 season. Freeman’s successor, Matt Olson, has a 133 OPS+ over that time. Ex-Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson has compiled an 11.2 WAR (FanGraphs) for the Cubs since signing with them in December 2022 (seven years, $177 million). Braves shortstops have a 3.1 WAR during that time.
The Mets had to make a choice when Nimmo made it to free agency in December 2022. They re-signed him for $162 over eight years. During that same offseason the Mets signed Diaz, Senga and Justin Verlander (two years, $87 million).
That kind of spending was expected when Steve Cohen bought the Mets in November 2020 for a reported $2.4 billion. Days after purchasing the team, Cohen, MLB’s wealthiest franchise owner, promised that the Mets would behave like a big-market team but tempered expectations.
“Are we going to act like drunken sailors in the marketplace? No,” Cohen said at the time. “I want to be thoughtful. You can spend a lot of money today and then tie up your team in bad contracts for the next five years.”
The Mets spent relatively modestly before the 2021 and 2022 seasons. They committed to only a couple of big deals: Francisco Lindor’s 10-year, $341 million extension and Max Scherzer’s three year, $130 million free agent contract. The team’s “drunken sailor” phase started in the weeks following the 2022 season.
The Mets committed to more than $500 million in salaries to free agents during that offseason, topped by Nimmo’s deal. The Mets continued the spending spree with the Soto contract. It broke the record for largest MLB free-agent contract in history, previously held by Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani (10 years, $700 million).
It’s possible all that spending won’t get the Mets to the World Series. They haven’t been there since 2015, when they lost to the Royals.
“If I don’t win a World Series in the next three to five years, I would consider that slightly disappointing,” Cohen said soon after buying the team, and this is year 5.
The Braves won the World Series the year after Cohen bought the Mets. They are long shots even to make it to the playoffs this year. It’s possible they’ll be sellers at the trade deadline. The Braves almost certainly won’t be big players in free agency next winter. It’s not their way.
The Mets are the big spenders. It looked wasteful when they were underachievers. Now they are cashing in with wins.
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