Online betting markets briefly rattle Georgia’s U.S. Senate race
Today’s newsletter highlights
- Fulton County special grand jurors asked politicians whether they wrote their own tweets.
- A news story’s photo caption becomes campaign fodder in Georgia’s 11th District.
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez attends Sunday service at Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church.
Market whiplash
For a few hours late Sunday, the online betting markets sent a stir through Georgia politics.
Former coach Derek Dooley, who has trailed U.S. Rep. Mike Collins in public polling and most prediction markets, suddenly spiked on Polymarket and Kalshi in the GOP race for U.S. Senate. Then, almost as quickly, the surge faded.
That doesn’t mean Dooley had secretly taken command of the race. It could mean one bettor, or a handful of them, poured money into the market and briefly moved the price. It could also mean traders were reacting to rumors, campaign chatter or nothing much at all. Or that they just wanted news coverage.
That’s the point.
Prediction markets can be useful as an instant measure of political sentiment. But they can also be vulnerable to sudden swings that say little about a candidate’s chances.
The timing was striking because NPR reported over the weekend that an unnamed campaign staffer in a Southern statewide race used knowledge of an unreleased poll to bet on their own candidate before the survey became public, then cashed in.
The broader industry is already under scrutiny. Kalshi and Polymarket have said they are tightening safeguards, and Kalshi recently sanctioned three political candidates for betting on their own races.
The U.S. Senate recently voted to ban senators and staff from using prediction markets amid worries that officials could profit from nonpublic information. The House is considering similar measures.
Polymarket and Kalshi both showed Collins with the edge early Monday.
But the Sunday whipsaw was a reminder that these markets are not polls. And sometimes it’s not about who is winning, but who is betting.
Things to know
Good morning! Here are three things to know for today.
- The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has asked a judge to open secret court proceedings initiated by two Democratic-backed candidates for the Georgia Supreme Court, the AJC’s Rosie Manins reports.
- Collins has campaigned for the U.S. Senate on taking away commercial driver’s licenses from noncitizens. A ProPublica investigation found Collins’ trucking company has been involved in crashes that killed five people and injured more than 50 others.
- A new AJC poll shows Gov. Brian Kemp remains one of the most popular elected officials in Georgia. Greg Bluestein writes about why that popularity hasn’t transferred to Dooley, Kemp’s pick for the U.S. Senate.
Come clean
If you could question politicians while they were under oath, what would you ask? A Fulton County special grand jury wanted to know if they write their own tweets.
Transcripts published last week by Lawfare show at least one person on a special grand jury that aided District Attorney Fani Willis’ 2020 election investigation questioned multiple people about whether they personally write their tweets or if they have staff write for them.
Kemp? A hard no. Former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan? It depends.
“If you see obnoxious pictures of my kids hitting home runs or something, that’s probably me,” Duncan, now a Democratic candidate for governor, told the jury. “If you see us making some sort of public-facing comment, that’s someone on my staff.”
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said he looks at his account, but added “I just don’t touch the keyboard.” Michael Flynn, President Donald Trump’s former national security adviser, said he was banned. And former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani asked if he were under oath before he answered (he writes most of them, he said.)
And then there was this exchange with former U.S. Sen. David Perdue:
- Juror: Do you have Twitter?
- Perdue: Did I have what?
- Juror: Twitter.
- Perdue: No.
- Juror: No?
- Perdue: Twitter? What did you say?
- Juror: Twitter.
- Perdue: Twittis?
- Juror: Twitter.
- Perdue: Oh, Twitter. No, I do not have a Twitter.
Perdue later clarified his office did run an official Twitter account. Perdue said he’s ultimately responsible for every tweet. But during a political campaign, sometimes things get hairy.
“You have these operatives over here. I never saw that, and that was always, always turning and turning, and that’s the way that went,” he said.
Buried the lead?
This is why you should always read the photo captions.
The Columbus Ledger-Enquirer published a story Friday afternoon about the Public Service Commission’s two-day hearing. The story was devoted to “polarizing views on energy policy.”
But it was a photo of Commissioner Tricia Pridemore — a Republican candidate for Congress in next week’s primary — that caught everyone’s attention.
“Georgia Public Service Commissioner Tricia Pridemore fell asleep for a few minutes during the FCR-27 hearing May 5, 2026,” reads the caption beneath a photo taken by reporter Kala Hunter, referencing Georgia Power’s Fuel Cost Recovery proposal.
The photo shows Pridemore slumped down in her chair with her eyes closed. Yet, the story makes no mention of the brief nap.
Pridemore’s opponents are already trying to take advantage of it. The photo was blasted out to GOP voters over the weekend.
And Rob Adkerson, a GOP rival, expects to make hay over it. His adviser Dan McLagan had this stemwinder: “Sleeping on the job is not a good look when your campaign slogan is that you’re a hard worker,” he said. “I wonder if she was dreaming about power rate increases.”
Pridemore fessed up about the nap in statement to the AJC, saying she “dozed off for a minute” during what she called “a 10-hour marathon meeting.”
“I regret that I did, and next time I’ll drink another quart of coffee,” she said.
But her campaign is embracing the faux pas. A new ad shows a series of left-wing luminaries — Greta Thunberg, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — before showing a photo of Pridemore asleep at her desk with the words “Let’s wake up from this bad dream.”
“Even Ronald Reagan dozed off once in a while,” Pridemore said.
Net worth
It’s been a question that’s shadowed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones’ campaign for governor, and a persistent line of attack from several of his top GOP rivals: How could someone who reported has roughly $11 million in net worth loan himself $16 million?
The answer was widely assumed to involve his family’s business empire, which includes insurance, petroleum and real estate interests. His campaign didn’t shy away from that explanation in a statement from spokeswoman Kayla Lott.
“The Jones family runs a successful business, and Burt is committed to using his resources to keep Georgia in Republican hands, while Rick Jackson and his family use their resources to support Democrats like Jon Ossoff and Stacey Abrams,” she said.
No. 2
State Sen. Blake Tillery is trying to turn fundraising into a closing argument in the GOP race for lieutenant governor.
His campaign says he raised $429,461 in the quarter ending April 30, more than the rest of the Republican field combined. But he still trails former state Sen. John F. Kennedy in cash on hand, with roughly $980,000 banked compared with Kennedy’s $1.25 million.
State Sen. Greg Dolezal raised $84,000, lent his campaign $1.75 million and ended with $942,000. State Sen. Steve Gooch raised $95,000 and finished with $440,000. State Rep. David Clark raised $28,000 and had $100,000 left.
Tillery used the numbers to sharpen his contrast with his rivals.
“I’m not a multimillionaire candidate who is self-funding like Greg Dolezal,” Tillery said. “I didn’t abandon my constituents by quitting right before the session to fundraise like John Kennedy.”
On the Democratic side, former state Sen. Nabilah Parkes raised $165,000 and ended with $145,000. State Sen. Josh McLaurin raised $84,000 and finished with nearly $130,000.
Listen up
Today on the “Politically Georgia” podcast, we answer questions from listeners about the May 19 primaries, including why the AJC poll shows so many voters are still undecided.
You can listen and subscribe to “Politically Georgia” for free on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Have a question or comment for the show? Email us at politicallygeorgia@ajc.com or give us a call at 770-810-5297 and you could be featured on a future episode.
Skipping the ‘gimmicks’
Attorney General Chris Carr is going no-frills with his closing message in the GOP race for governor.
Trailing a trio of rivals in the polls, his 30-second ad this week swipes at the memorable ads of candidates that came before him, including Sonny Perdue’s rat metaphor, David Perdue’s jean jacket and Kelly Loeffler’s “Attila the Hun” spectacle.
“Some candidates run on gimmicks. I’m Chris Carr, running on real results,” he said, adding a dig at his better-funded rivals. “While others spend millions on flashy ads trying to buy your vote, I’ve spent my career earning it.”
Today in Washington
- Trump will host an event at the White House on maternal health and a celebration of the Indiana University national football championship team.
- The House returns Tuesday.
- The Senate will vote on more Trump nominations.
AOC at Ebenezer
U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the New York Democrat who is considering a run for president in 2028, attended Sunday’s service at Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church.
U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock, the senior pastor, called her to the pulpit to deliver brief remarks. Ocasio-Cortez spoke about voting rights and the “terrifying times” ushered in by the recent Supreme Court decision neutralizing the Voting Rights Act, which led to swift action in Tennessee and Louisiana to pass new maps erasing districts represented by Black Democrats.
“I’m here today, brothers and sisters, with a simple message: We stand together and we are not going back,” she said. “This is America; we are not divided by state. We are united by our humanity and common citizenship, because no man can grant us our humanity, and no law can erase it.”
And wading deeper into Georgia politics, the congresswoman separately endorsed Democratic state Rep. Ruwa Romman in her contested state Senate race, saying in a video posted to X on Sunday, “I’m on Team Ruwa!”
Shoutouts
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Before you go
Qualifying begins today for a special election in Georgia’s 13th Congressional District to fill the unexpired term of U.S. Rep. David Scott, who died last month.
That’ll do it for us today. As always, you can send your best scoops, gossip and insider information to greg.bluestein@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com, patricia.murphy@ajc.com and adam.beam@ajc.com.
About the Authors
Greg Bluestein is the Atlanta Journal Constitution's chief political reporter. He is also an author, TV analyst and co-host of the Politically Georgia podcast.
Tia Mitchell is the AJC’s Washington Bureau Chief and a co-host of the "Politically Georgia" podcast. She writes about Georgia’s congressional delegation, campaigns, elections and the impact that decisions made in D.C. have on residents of the Peach State.
Patricia Murphy is the AJC's senior political columnist. She was previously a nationally syndicated columnist for CQ Roll Call, national political reporter for the Daily Beast and Politics Daily, and wrote for The Washington Post and Garden & Gun. She graduated from Vanderbilt and holds a master’s degree in journalism from Columbia University.
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