Population shift could impact City Council election

Over the past generation, Atlanta has been losing black residents and gaining white ones at a rate that threatens the city’s unofficial title as the “Black Mecca.”

Now, some longtime political observers are wondering how the demographic shift will impact Tuesday’s municipal elections for City Council.

Two of the three most hotly contested races feature black incumbents facing white challengers. The outcomes could increase the number of white members on the majority black City Council or leave the ratio unchanged.

“We’re in a period of transition in America, and in Atlanta we’re seeing examples of it,” said former Mayor Shirley Franklin, who left office in 2010. “It’s exciting to watch as Atlanta evolves.”

Franklin has studied census data that show rising white populations in the city’s central core, a shift that she predicts will ultimately make the city’s leadership more racially diverse. Atlanta’s City Council currently is composed of 12 black members, three whites and one Asian.

But the contested races do not break down neatly along racial lines, and analysts expect traditional drivers such as incumbency to play a strong role.

Mayor Kasim Reed, riding strong political support throughout the city, is backing all but one incumbent. The Buckhead Coalition through its political action committee is backing all incumbents except for one race in which it is abstaining.

“If we picked incumbents, then we picked mostly blacks,” said coalition President Sam Massell, who was Atlanta’s last white mayor.

A generation ago, the city’s black population approached 70 percent, but it has steadily drifted south to a little more than 50 percent now, while the white population has risen to about 40 percent.

District 5, which includes the gentrifying East Atlanta and Kirkwood neighborhoods, has experienced the most dramatic demographic change. In the decade ending in 2010, more than 10,000 African-Americans left the district and about 7,000 new white residents moved in. (Atlanta, in that time, grew slightly to 420,000 residents but saw a loss of 29,000 black residents — down to 227,000 — and a gain of 23,000 whites and 5,000 Asians, totaling 161,000 and 13,000, respectively.)

Natalyn Archibong, an attorney who is black, has represented District 5 since 2001, when voters overwhelmingly elected her, seeing Archibong as a moderate voice against the racially divisive incumbent, Sherry Dorsey. In that election, Dorsey whipped up long-time black residents against “new” residents, a code for whites. Archibong’s 2001 slogan — “For all of us” — proved to be a coalition-builder and a winner.

In 2001, 77 percent of the district’s residents were African-American. Now, it’s half and Archibong faces three white challengers — Matt Rinker, Christian Enterkin and John Paul Michalik.

Steve Suna, a white resident lured to Kirkwood 23 years ago by an $80,000 home, said the district is witnessing the first campaign since 2001 where race could become a factor.

“I don’t know if it’s race or just demographics,” Suna said. “I think it’s a lot of new people who moved in and don’t know what problems we had in the past. Sometimes people want to vote for somebody new.”

Michael Langford, an activist from south Atlanta, has worked get-out-the-vote efforts for several elections. He supports Archibong and worries about the tenor of the campaign.

“It will be a true test of character of our city,” said Langford, who will drive voters to the polls Tuesday. “It’s going to be a tight race; I expect a runoff. I believe in diversity, but we need to focus on the candidate.”

Another closely watched contest is a citywide race between Post 2 incumbent Aaron Watson, who is black, and Mary Norwood, a white Buckhead resident who represented the district for two terms until 2009, when she lost a close race for mayor to Reed.

Norwood has campaigned hard in south Atlanta neighborhoods through the years and enjoys some black support. Watson lives in a predominately white neighborhood and said, “I’m comfortable in every part of town.”

Bob Holmes, a former legislator and professor emeritus of political science at Clark Atlanta University, said race still plays an issue in campaigns, but nothing like it did in past decades. He said the Watson-Norwood campaign is more personality-driven and can be viewed as an unofficial referendum on Reed, who has supported Watson against his old political foe.

“The mayor says (Watson is) part of his team,” Holmes said. “The implicit question is: Do you support the mayor or someone who is independent and will challenge the mayor?”

Matt Towery, a former legislator who runs the political polling firm Insider Advantage, said polls performed two weeks ago on the Watson-Norwood race found that white voters — who are younger, and more apt to be engaged in community associations and neighborhood computer news feeds — were more tuned in to the relatively low-key municipal election. The majority of the undecided voters were black, he said.

“The question is, will the traditional (African-American political) turnout get geared up?” Towery asked. “In 1990, the answer was ‘yes.’ This will be a test in whose political ground game works best in letting voters know who the candidates are.”

Franklin said the black-white politics of the past are yielding to a more multifaceted political dynamic in Atlanta.

“If you’re talking about diversity as just black and white, then you’re locked in the past,” Franklin said. “In Atlanta you’ve seen whites represent predominately black areas and blacks representing predominately white areas. It’s not frequent, but with population shifts I think we’ll see more of it.”

A classic case of this is seen each meeting on the City Council dais, where District 1 Councilwoman Carla Smith sits next to District 2 Councilman Kwanza Hall. The two fly in the face of “predictable” racial voting. Hall is black and represents a central Atlanta district that is two-thirds white. Smith, who is white, represents a southeast district that includes the Grant Park and Lakewood neighborhoods and is two-thirds black.

“It does say something interesting about Atlanta; in the Deep South some people don’t think that is possible,” Hall said.

The seatmates have become friends and often trade political and social intelligence.