‘Tea party’ vs. ‘establishment’ fight isn’t so clear in Georgia

With a number of U.S. Senate primaries looming, including Georgia’s on May 20, the “tea party vs. establishment” theme is once again emerging as a storyline for GOP contests. But with a twist.

Nationally, the narrative has concerned the national Republican Party’s attempt to adapt, after some bruising intra-party battles in 2010 and 2012. The GOP establishment has tried both promoting their preferred candidates and reaching out to critics. It has also offered candidates training, the better to avoid an election-changing mistake like Todd Akin’s “legitimate rape” comment in 2012.

The rift between the tea party and the establishment may be overblown, however.

Sean Trende, the widely respected elections analyst at RealClearPolitics.com, recently argued the tea party must be credited for its wins if it’s going to be docked for its losses. Trende pointed to Mike Lee of Utah, Ted Cruz of Texas, Marco Rubio of Florida, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin as examples of conservative senators who couldn’t have been elected without the tea party. He also pointed out that so-called establishment Republicans in Montana, New Mexico, Virginia and Wisconsin lost winnable Senate races in 2012.

So the GOP has to acknowledge the good as well as the bad. But what does this all mean for Georgia?

While U.S. Rep. Paul Broun has been considered the “tea party candidate” in the race, that’s debatable now. Karen Handel has won endorsements from the Tea Party Express and movement favorites Sarah Palin, Erick Erickson and Julianne Thompson. Her recent rise in the polls just might reflect a growing belief that she offers the best combination of electability and conservatism.

It’s fair to say she is considered less likely than Broun or Rep. Phil Gingrey to have an “Akin moment.”

How about the “establishment candidate”?

I suppose that would be Jack Kingston, the longtime congressman from Savannah. Kingston has the backing of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, as good a bellwether as any for deciding who’s the “establishment” guy. But Kingston has tried hard not to wear that label too prominently, running TV ads with his old station wagon to present himself — unsuccessfully, in the view of a lot of people I talk to — as more of an ordinary guy.

David Perdue might also be called “establishment” because he’s viewed as more of a moderate candidate, though his ads focusing on his lack of electoral experience are clearly a way to avoid being tagged with the E-word.

But it’s also possible the run-off won’t be a clear-cut “tea party vs. establishment” affair.

The two most recent opinion polls show a top three of Handel, Kingston and Perdue. What if it’s Handel vs. Perdue? Is one of them really “establishment” in the usual sense of the word? Would a Kingston-Perdue run-off be a contest of establishment vs. establishment?