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Georgia to lose 33,600 jobs if health insurance subsidies expire, study says

Congress has shut down in a deadlock over whether to extend the pandemic-era federal subsidies.
Promotional materials for GeorgiaAccess.gov distributed at a Georgia Access launch event Friday, Nov. 1, 2024, near the Georgia Capitol.  Georgia Access is the state-based exchange marketplace for the Affordable Care Act in Georgia. (Ariel Hart/AJC)
Promotional materials for GeorgiaAccess.gov distributed at a Georgia Access launch event Friday, Nov. 1, 2024, near the Georgia Capitol. Georgia Access is the state-based exchange marketplace for the Affordable Care Act in Georgia. (Ariel Hart/AJC)
5 hours ago

Georgia is expected to lose about 33,600 jobs next year if federal subsidies on the Affordable Care Act marketplace exchange expire, according to a new forecast.

The study was done by researchers at George Washington University and funded by the left-leaning Commonwealth Fund. The ACA, also known as Obamacare, is operated in this state as Georgia Access.

The “enhanced” subsidies, which were enacted by the Biden administration during the pandemic to help many Americans afford health insurance, are at the center of a federal government shutdown that is entering its third week. Health insurance premiums will rise for millions of Americans unless they are extended.

The new study shows that jobs would also be on the line.

Nationwide, about 340,000 jobs would be lost, the researchers found.

Some would be in the health sector. But more than half would not; they could be people who do business with health workers, from landlords to construction crews to lunch counters, the researchers said.

The economic hit from the expiring subsidies would create a ripple effect. More people going without health insurance and being unable to pay for their health care would mean that health businesses like pharmacies, hospitals and doctors offices would have fewer paying customers, and sometimes would have to provide care for free, the study found.

“The first hit is to healthcare,” said Leighton Ku, director of the Center for Health Policy Research at George Washington University’s Milken Institute School of Public Health. “After that, it spreads out quickly.”

Georgia’s job loss would be the third worst, they found, following Texas and Florida.

Extending the subsidies for 10 years would cost a total of about $350 billion. The Trump administration and GOP allies have been trying to direct federal spending to immigration enforcement and paying for tax cuts, not health care. On health care, they worked to save $1 trillion with cuts.

The enhanced subsidies are scheduled to expire Dec. 31. They lowered premium prices and out-of-pocket costs for more people. They especially made plans more affordable for the lowest-income shoppers and higher-income ones.

People poured onto ACA exchange, and in Georgia enrollment more than doubled. About 1.5 million signed up for Georgia Access this year, and enrollment now stands at 1.35 million.

Of those, about 460,000 are expected to go uninsured as a result of both the expiring subsidies and other changes made under the Trump administration, according to the health research organization KFF.

Republicans in Congress are mostly standing firm against extending the subsidies, even as window shopping has begun and people are starting to see next year’s premium prices.

House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters last week that “it’s become a boondoggle. It’s a subsidy for insurance companies.”

Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, however, is a rare GOP voice favoring an extension.

One advocate for rural hospitals said he easily believed that 33,600 jobs could be lost, if not more.

In rural communities, “If you have a nurse who’s fully employed, a lot of times she is the main breadwinner in that family,” said Monty Veazey, president of the Georgia Alliance of Community Hospitals. “So she loses her job, and then they have to go out of the area to look for another job, and the husband has to quit his job, whatever that might be, to move with them.”

“There will be 34,000 jobs lost,” Veazey said. “But there’s going to be more affected.”

About the Author

Ariel Hart is a reporter on health care issues. She works on the AJC’s health team and has reported on subjects including the Voting Rights Act and transportation.

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