Optimistic projections about the 2017 Braves largely center on what should be an improved pitching rotation after it was bad in 2016. That outlook hinges on the three reliable veterans added to the staff (necessary, by the way, because the first wave of pitching prospects so far hasn’t panned out).
That viewpoint also assumes Julio Teheran will continue to perform like a staff ace. That seems reasonable. Teheran just and had his best season in 2016 and turned 25 in January. His FIP suggests he's been a bit fortunate and his fastball velocity has declined to 90-91 mph. But Teheran has very good command, he's a good defender and he excels at holding base runners.
Maybe Teheran is not a perennial All-Star but it seems sensible to believe he will remain a very good pitcher for the Braves. However Tony Blengino, writing for ESPN Insider, offers some reasons why Teheran could regress.
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Blengino includes Teheran among six MLB pitchers “with upside who -- with a tweak or two -- could markedly improve their performances this season.” Blengino identifies a “problem pitch” for each of those players. Blengino does so by using the contact score metric, defined as the “relative production allowed by a pitcher overall or on a given pitch” with 100 set as the league average. Adjusted contact score measures “how a pitcher should have performed based on their individual batted-ball exit speed/launch angle mix.”
Blengino notes the big difference between Teheran’s unadjusted and adjusted contact scores on fly balls and says his fastball is Teheran’s problem pitch:
Assuming the new Braves' park is more hitter-friendly, Teheran could take a Shelby Miller-like turn this season. His slider (21.6 percent swing-and-miss rate) leads a solid group of off-speed offerings, but he needs to locate both fastballs much better. He didn't pay for his mistakes in his old digs, and he may learn the hard way moving forward."
Miller, as you may recall, had a breakout season with the Braves in 2015 and then regressed badly after they traded him to the Diamondbacks after that season.
The Braves say SunTrust Park should play similarly to Turner Field , which was pitcher-friendly most seasons. GM John Coppolella has said the new the team's studies showed that the new park may be "slightly more hitter-friendly" than the old park but still relatively favorable to pitchers. Obviously, no one knows for sure.
Blengino’s take is that Teheran needs to improve his four-seam fastball or more of those hard-hit fly balls could go for home runs and extra bases in the new park. I don’t see a “Shelby Miller-like” decline for Teheran even if I see Blengino’s point. Teheran, as noted, still is only 25-years old. I'm thinking he will be better with his fastball and remain a very good pitcher on an improved Braves staff.
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