HOUSTON--Tom Brady is getting more attention than Matt Ryan this week for reasons that are obvious and valid. Brady is an all-time great quarterback, maybe the best ever, and he's trying to win a record fifth Super Bowl. Ryan had a great season, then backed it up with two fine playoff Ws, but he's here for the first time.
Yet I think one of the main reasons why the Falcons are just a three-point underdog in the Super Bowl is because there's a good chance Ryan will outplay Brady. That's because Brady didn't play great in at least half of his six Super Bowls, but also because Ryan can exploit a Pats defense that hasn't been tested by an elite offense in a long while.
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For one thing, it's not clear that the Patriots' pass rush will get to Ryan. Their pressure percentage of 27.9 percent since week 14th is fourth-lowest in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. Chris Long is a plus pass rusher but the Pats generally use scheme to get pressure.
If the Pats do get to Ryan, he can handle it: Ryan’s passer rating of 87.2 while under pressure ranked third-best in the league, according PFF. In the playoffs, his rating has been 95.7 when under pressure, best among all postseason quarterbacks. If the Patriots don’t get to Ryan, he’s likely to carve them up: Ryan’s 131.1 passer rating when not facing pressure is the best in the league by far, according to PFF.
The Falcons allowed pressure on 33.1 percent of Ryan’s dropbacks this season. There’s a very real chance that Ryan will stand in a clean pocket Sunday while delivering passes to his many options. That scenario depends heavily on the Falcons setting up play-action by running effectively against New England’s sound, disciplined front. But it can happen.
I think it will happen, allowing Ryan and Kyle Shanahan to unleash the full power of the league's best offense. In the end, Ryan will have a better game than Brady.
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