Why Falcons should trade down in draft
The Falcons only have five picks in next week's NFL draft thanks to Noisegate (fifth-round pick forfeited) and the Andy Levitre trade last September (sixth-round pick). GM Thomas Dimitroff has said repeatedly that the Falcons plan to be "creative" in the draft, which AJC colleague D. Orlando Ledbetter interprets that to mean the team is seeking to trade down.
I think that trading down to accumulate more draft picks would be the right move for the Falcons. Dimitroff’s propensity for trading up in drafts during his tenure means the Falcons have had relatively few picks over the years. Time to reverse that trend, if possible.
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The Falcons have drafted 62 players since Arthur Blank hired Dimitroff as GM in Jan. 2008. Only 10 NFL teams made fewer draft picks over that time span. The same number of teams made fewer picks in the top three rounds, where the best prospects tend to be found.
Draft picks for NFL teams 2008-2015
| Team | Picks | Rds 1-3 |
|---|---|---|
| CIN | 75 | 31 |
| NEP | 73 | 33 |
| PHI | 72 | 24 |
| SFF | 71 | 26 |
| STL | 71 | 29 |
| GBP | 70 | 24 |
| SEA | 70 | 19 |
| PIT | 68 | 25 |
| WAS | 68 | 20 |
| BAL | 67 | 27 |
| KCC | 67 | 29 |
| MIN | 67 | 21 |
| BUF | 66 | 25 |
| DEN | 66 | 28 |
| HOU | 66 | 26 |
| TEN | 66 | 25 |
| MIA | 65 | 26 |
| CLE | 63 | 28 |
| DAL | 63 | 21 |
| OAK | 63 | 20 |
| DET | 62 | 28 |
| ATL | 62 | 24 |
| ARI | 60 | 24 |
| IND | 60 | 22 |
| NYG | 58 | 26 |
| CAR | 57 | 22 |
| CHI | 57 | 21 |
| JAX | 56 | 23 |
| TBB | 56 | 23 |
| NYJ | 52 | 21 |
| SDC | 51 | 23 |
| NOS | 47 | 21 |
Source: Pro Football Reference
The Falcons appear to have done well in free agency . They shored up a weaknesses on the interior of the offensive line (Alex Mack) and retained a key tackle (Ryan Schraeder). They added a pass rusher with potential (Derrick Shelby). The Falcons probably overpaid for Mohamed Sanu but it's plausible he could end up being a superior replacement for Roddy White.
But they need more talent. The best way to get it is through the draft. Younger players tend to be healthier and faster. Drafted players can be developed and later signed to cap-friendly extensions. This draft is considered to be deep in talent so the Falcons could trade down and still get good prospects.
Obviously the Falcons can’t swing a trade without a willing partner. They shouldn’t do it if they can’t get appropriate compensation. But if the Falcons get a fair offer to trade down and accumulate more picks in this draft or even future ones, they should do it.
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