CARMELO underestimated the Hawks. Nate Silver's projection system predicted 45 victories for the Hawks. They've got 48 Ws going into tonight's regular-season finale at the disappointing Wizards. They've secured home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, with opponent to be determined .
I did not underestimate the Hawks. The Vegas over/under for victories was 49.5 and I wrote: "(P)ut me down for the under." The Hawks will go under. Nailed it.
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Well, OK, not exactly. I also wrote:
“I agree that (Paul) Millsap and (Kyle) Korver won’t be as good and Al Horford will see a gentler decline. Jeff Teague probably won’t repeat his career year. The wing is iffy without (DeMarre) Carroll because Tim Hardaway Jr. is sub-replacement level, and Thabo Sefolosha is a net negative in comparison to Carroll because his lack of offense offsets his good defense—and the Hawks are in real trouble if Sefolosha can’t return to form physically.”
Milsap has been at least as good as last year, maybe better. Horford indeed has seen a slight decline, which still means he's having a typically very good Horford year. Korver will finish with his worst shooting season since 2010-11 but he's trending up. Hardaway Jr. started off bad but has ended up being useful. Sefolosha has been a low-usage, high-efficiency offensive player while playing about 1,800 minutes.
I was right in the big picture but, truth be told, I pretty much gave up on the Hawks back on Feb. 22 because of their lackluster offense and a tough schedule. They lost to the Warriors that night but are 17-6 since then. They Hawks have peaked by improving from very good to exceptional on defense and getting a little bit better on offense.
Now come the playoffs. I didn't think it was a good idea for Hawks boss Mike Budenholzer to stand pat at the trade deadline . The skeptical-but-grounded view is that the Hawks' run will end when they meet the Cavaliers or Raptors in the East semifinals.
Maybe that's what happens. But give the Hawks credit for meeting expectations when seven weeks even 40 wins and a playoff berth looked like bad bets. I look forward to seeing if they can prove me wrong.
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