FanGraphs: Braves starting pitching worst in majors
Before spring training the advanced statistics website FanGraphs predicted the Braves would win 67 games, same as last season (which was their fewest since 1990). Now that camp is winding down and rosters are taking shape, the Depth Charts projections updated on Wednesday have the Braves winning 68 games.
The main weakness for the Braves, as FanGraphs sees it, is the starting pitching. It projects that the Braves' rotation will have the lowest WAR among major league teams at 7.3. The second-worst team in the starting pitching projections, the Royals, are predicted to post a 8.5 WAR.
(Dave Cameron on FanGraphs offers this caution: "(i)n many cases, the difference between a mid-tier and bottom-tier ranking is going to be fractions of a win. . . . Try to keep in mind that this series is more about providing information than it is about arguing over which team should be a few places higher or lower on a list.)
FanGraphs predicts Braves right-hander Julio Teheran will be better after a career-worst year in 2015 and will be the only pitcher on staff to top 200 innings. The projection believes Teheran won't return to his All-Star form in 2014 but will be something close to his solid from in 2013.
The FanGraphs projection also sees a bounce-back season for new addition Bud Norris. It predicts he will post his highest WAR since 2013 while pitching 161 innings.
That’s pretty much the extent of the good news for the Braves’ rotation, according to FanGraphs. It predicts Matt Wisler and Mike Foltnyewicz will be the only other starters to log more than 100 innings (at near-replacement level production) with the rest of starting innings going to a motley collection of journeymen and youngsters.
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