I noted two weeks ago that it's kind of silly to give out free agent grades in March. No one knows for sure how free agents added will pan out or how free agents lost will affect their old team. Not to mention that even if a team signs the right free agents, spending big on them now while striking out in the draft can lead to problems later .
Remember when the Bucs went crazy in 2014 and added big-ticket free agents Michael Johnson, Anthony Collins and Josh McCown? The Bucs went 2-14 that year, two games worse than the season before, and none of those players were on Tampa Bay’s roster in 2015.
Last year the Panthers were panned for really only adding offensive tackle Michael Oher and wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr. Oher ended up being an adequate left tackle and Ginn served as a big-play threat as the Panthers won the NFC.
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Usually grades handed out within the first few days of free agency are forgotten by the next news cycle but Pro Football Focus circled back for another look once the initial flurry died down. With the dust settled, Matt Claassen of Pro Football Focus analyzed the free-agent moves for all of the NFC South teams and gave the Falcons a high grade of "B+" The Panthers earned a "B," the Bucs got a "B-" and the Saints brought up the rear with a "C-" grade.
Claassen praises the Falcons for (so far) retaining breakout right tackle Ryan Schraeder with a second-round tender of $2.56 million. He believes the Falcons can field a top-five offensive line if center Alex Mack returns to his pre-injury level of play. Claassen also thinks new defensive end Derrick Shelby will help the pass rush.
The only knock against the Falcons, according to Claassen: signing wide receiver Mohamed Sanu to replace Roddy White. He says letting White walk isn’t the issue; it’s that Sanu will cost the Falcons $14 million over the next two seasons when PFF ranked him 101st out of 121 qualifying wide receivers last year.
Claassen didn't mention it, but I would add to the list of Falcons missteps singing Paul Worrilow to the second-round tender. Worrilow ranked 80th out of 97 linebackers in PFF's ratings and lacks the speed that coach/quasi GM Dan Quinn said he wants at the position. So why give $2.56 million to retain a player who almost certainly wasn't going to get close to that on the open market?
Since Claassen evaluated the Falcons' moves they've added linebacker/end Courtney Upshaw and re-signed Philip Wheeler. Neither player moves the needle much (though PFF graded both players higher than Worrilow last season).
Then again, maybe Upshaw and Wheeler turn out to be great additions. Perhaps Sanu blossoms into a star with more snaps than he ever got in Cincinnati. It’s also possible Mack becomes a bust and Shelby can’t get to the quarterback more often with more snaps.
Nobody knows for sure in March. But at first glance it appears the Falcons “won” free agency in the NFC South.
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