The Cowboys did the Falcons a solid and played to win against the Lions Monday night in spite of Dallas already having clinched the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The Cowboys beat the Lions, clearing the way for the Falcons to earn the NFC’s No. 2 playoff seed with a victory against the Saints on Sunday at The Dome.
In that scenario, the Falcons would finish the regular season 11-5. The Giants (10-5) can finish tied with the Falcons by beating Washington on Sunday but the Falcons would be the No. 2 seed by virtue of their NFC South title. If the Falcons lose to the Saints, they leave the door open for the Seahawks (9-5-1) to take the No. 2 seed with a victory over the 49ers, in which case the Falcons would play host to a wild-card opponent.
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As the No. 2 seed, the Falcons would get a bye for the wild-card round and play host to the highest-seeded wild-card winner the next weekend. If the Falcons advanced, they'd get a home game in the NFC championship game against any opponent other than Dallas.
The Falcons probably still would have earned the No. 2 seed if the Lions had beaten the Cowboys on Monday and then the Packers on Sunday. Fivethirtyeight.com's computer simulations gave them a 93 percent chance of doing so in that scenario. (Those same simulations now give the Falcons a 78 percent chance to beat the Saints.)
But with the Cowboys taking care of the Lions, the Falcons don't have to worry about whatever permutations would have given the Lions the tiebreaker on strength of victory. All the Falcons have to do is beat the Saints to earn No. 2 seed in the wide-open NFC.
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