Everybody knows the Falcons have a great offense and an average-at-best defense. If, like me, you believe the Falcons are legit Super Bowl contenders but sometimes wonder about that defense , at least it's clear that they aren't the only unbalanced team in the playoffs.
In his analysis of the final DVOA rankings, Aaron Schatz of the invaluable Football Outsiders writes that there are no teams in this field that are really good on both sides of the ball:
"As we've noted in past weeks, what stands out most about 2016 is not just the lack of great teams but the lack of good, balanced teams. Pittsburgh's loss to Cleveland dropped them from ninth to 11th in defensive DVOA, which means that no team in 2016 finished in the top ten on both offense and defense. Pittsburgh is the only team to finish in the top dozen on both sides of the ball. As noted earlier, only three teams were above-average on both offense and defense: Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and New England (barely)."
Those three AFC teams are in the opposite bracket from the Falcons. In the NFC, the Falcons rank No. 3 in overall DVOA behind only Dallas (No. 2). And while the Falcons may be unbalanced their strength is, um, stronger than any other NFC team.
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The Falcons are No. 1 in offensive DVOA, No. 27 in defensive DVOA and No. 8 in special teams DVOA. The The DVOA gap on offense between the favored Cowboys and the Falcons (about five percent) isn't much different than the gap on defense (about 7.3) and the Falcons have a one percent edge in special teams. Statistically, these are two evenly-matched teams.
The Seahawks have been inconsistent all year (No. 29 in weekly DVOA variance) and have faded late (14th in weighted DVOA, which gives more weight to recent games). The Packers have become a trendy NFC pick but Green Bay's weighted DVOA (No. 7) is the same as its overall DVOA. The Packers still may be who we thought they were.
The same can be said of the Falcons, who are a great offensive team with solid special teams and a flawed defense. That might be enough for them to reach the Super Bowl this season. If they do, that could be the only time the Falcons would face a good, balanced opponent.
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