The Falcons can find nothing good in blowing that game against the Chiefs and plenty of bad. In the locker room afterwards, the Falcons were obviously stunned to lose after leading for (officially) zero seconds before Matt Ryan gave it right back with a pick-two to Eric Berry. You have to wonder if losing this game in that fashion will have lingering effects for the Falcons.
It only got worse for them when the Buccaneers won at San Diego to forge a tie atop the NFC South. But here's the thing: If both the Falcons and Buccaneers win out to finish 11-5, the Falcons would win the NFC South by virtue of a tiebreaker.
So, really, the Falcons are in a similar position as they were before choking away the game to the Chiefs. They lost all of their breathing room, and did so in a shocking way, but they still control their own destiny.
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To see why, look at the NFL's tiebreaking procedure for teams from within the same division. The first is head-to-head results but that wouldn't settle things because the Falcons and Bucs split. The second is division record but that wouldn't settle it, either, because the 11-5 Falcons and 11-5 Bucs would have the same NFC South record.
That takes us to the third tiebreaker, record in common games. The Falcons and Bucs share eight common opponents outside of the division. The Bucs have already played all eight and are 4-4: Ws against the Chargers, Chiefs, Seahawks and 49ers and Ls against the Raiders, Cardinals, Broncos and Rams. The Falcons are 3-3 against common opponents with Ws vs. the Raiders, Cardinals and Broncos and Ls against the Chiefs, Chargers and Seahawks.
If the Falcons win their final four games that would include victories against the 49ers and Rams. That would give them a 5-3 record against common opponents shared with the Bucs and thus the NFC South title. The Falcons could lose again and still earn a wild card but they would be assured of a playoff berth if they win out.
At the moment, I’d take the Falcons in each of their final four games: at Rams, vs. 49ers, at Panthers and vs. Saints. Certainly any of those teams are capable of beating the Falcons. But, glass half-full here, the Falcons lost in the final moments to a good Chiefs team by a point with Ryan giving away nine points, the special teams blundering and the defense getting gashed for big plays.
None of the Falcons’ remaining opponents are as good as the Chiefs. Two of them, the 49ers and Rams, are plain bad. The Panthers, strange as it sounds, aren’t very good. The Saints always have a chance as long as they have Drew Brees, who might still be the best QB in the division.
Running the table won’t be easy, and the Falcons have a tendency to make things harder. But at least the know they are still in if they win.
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