Jalen Brunson, Phil Booth and Mikal Bridges were the fifth, sixth and seventh top scorers on Villanova’s 2016 NCAA championship team. Only Brunson was a starter, and he wasn’t one of the Wildcats on the floor for Kris Jenkins’ title-winning shot against North Carolina. Bridges didn’t start a game that season. Booth started only three, though he scored 20 points in the final.
Today they are the first, second and sixth leading scorers on a team favored to win its second title in three seasons. Brunson, a junior, was named the Associated Press player of the year Thursday. Booth, also a junior, is described by coach Jay Wright as “the glue on our team.” Villanova isn’t a program that traffics in one-and-dones, which could be the reason Villanova keeps making Final Fours.
Duke won the 2015 NCAA championship with three freshmen who left school after cutting the nets in Indianapolis. The Blue Devils had one one-and-done the next season, three the next; they could have four now. Over those three seasons, they lost in the Sweet 16, the round of 32 and the Elite Eight.
Kentucky won the 2012 title with three one-and-dones. It reached the Final Four undefeated – losing in the semifinal to Wisconsin – with three one-and-dones in 2015. The Wildcats had three one-and-dones in each of the next two seasons. They figure to have at least two now. Over those years, they were eliminated in the round of 32, the Elite Eight and the Sweet 16.
Loyola-Chicago graces this Final Four. Five of its top six scorers are juniors and seniors. The Ramblers will face Michigan in Saturday’s first semi. The Wolverines’ top five scorers are juniors and seniors. Villanova’s opponent is Kansas, which has known one-and-dones – Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, Ben McLemore, Kelly Oubre, Josh Jackson – but wouldn’t appear to have one now. None of its top five scorers is a freshman.
In 2015, Duke and Kentucky sent six one-and-dones from Final Four qualifiers to the NBA. The past two Final Fours have seen three one-and-dones: Malachi Richardson of Syracuse, Tony Bradley of North Carolina and Zach Collins of Gonzaga. This year’s convocation figures to produce none.
Said Kansas coach Bill Self, speaking Thursday: “I know personally with me, I think the best teams are the ones where your most talented kids are your youngest kids, but your foundation always your upperclassmen. When we won it in ’08, we had some unbelievable seniors that had been there and done it, and then our two most talented kids (Sherron Collins, Darrell Arthur) were sophomores.”
Think of Duke, beaten by Kansas in overtime in the Midwest Regional final Sunday. The Devils had Marvin Bagley III, who’ll be a top-five NBA draft pick, and Wendell Carter Jr., who’ll be among the top 10. Their lone significant senior was Grayson Allen, the antithesis of a calming influence. Kentucky lost to ninth-seeded Kansas State just after being anointed the South Regional’s team to beat; the SEC Wildcats started five freshmen and had no one older than a sophomore among their rotation.
It’s impossible to know what March Madness is like if you’ve never experienced it. Referring to the stacked Kentucky team that beat his Jayhawks for the 2012 title, Self noted the presence of freshmen Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who went 1-2 in that year’s draft. Then he said: “They still had (senior Darius) Miller and some guys that were a little bit older and probably were a foundation for them.”
Kentucky has gone from that semblance of balance to starting over every season. Duke has come close to doing the same. (Although with ace recruiter Jeff Capel gone to Pitt as head coach, that could change.) Even if you’re a Hall of Fame coach, which both John Calipari and Mike Krzyzewski are, starting over is hard. It’s harder still in March, where many of the other teams have some prior knowledge.
Villanova’s Booth was setting a screen for Josh Hart in the right corner when Ryan Arcidiacano flipped the ball back to Jenkins two springs ago. Carter was a junior at Pace Academy. Bagley, who skipped his senior year in high school, was a sophomore – and a teammate of fellow one-and-done Deandre Ayton, whose NCAA tournament with Arizona lasted one game.
Self: “There’s so many good players in college basketball. When you think about an 18- or 19-year-old completing against a 22- or 23-year-old that knows how to play, even though there might be a little discrepancy in talent, a lot of times strength and experience offsets that.”
Even though the influence of one-and-dones, at least at the Final Four level, has clearly ebbed, no program capable of attracting a major talent will ever say no to one. This is basketball: The better your players, the better your chances. But we’re seeing compelling evidence that beginning anew every October doesn’t always cut it in March/April. Heck, the past two No. 1 overall draftees – Ben Simmons of LSU and Markelle Fultz of Washington – didn’t even make the Dance.
Said Self: “Duke winning it (in 2015) with primarily young guys, it will happen again where somebody will do that. But I really think the percentage play is having a balance of both.”
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