You had to figure the Washington Nationals would sit atop the National League East at some point, seeing as how they’ve won the division four times in five seasons. They’re there now. They’re also here – meaning in this city – for four games.
The Atlanta Braves are, to use the evocative baseball word, scuffling. They’ve lost six of their past 10 games. Their three most recent home victories have been of the walk-off variety. Their most gifted player is on the disabled list. They just yielded 20 earned runs over four games to the Mets, who rank 12th among NL clubs in scoring.
The Mets were in disarray when they arrived, having lost five of six. They were missing Yoenis Cespedes, Todd Frazier, Wilmer Flores and Juan Ligares. On Tuesday alone, they saw two of their brittle pitchers – Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz – lost to finger injuries. They were ripe to be swept. If not for the two blown leads – actually three, Seth Lugo having turned an eighth/ninth-inning double dip in Game 1 on Monday – they’d have swept the Braves. (Can’t predict baseball, folks.)
The Nationals are missing key people, too. They’re without Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy and Adam Eaton. Max Scherzer won’t pitch in the series, having worked against Baltimore on Wednesday. Bryce Harper, finally on his long-awaited contract year, has 18 homers and 40 RBIs but is hitting .238. If we go by Baseball-Reference WAR, the Nats’ second- and fourth-most-valuable position players have been Matt Adams, who was a Brave this time a year ago, and Mark Reynolds, now on his eighth organization.
The Nats arrive having won six in a row and eight of nine, which is how they’ve seized first place by a half-game after being four games back and in fourth place only 10 days ago. This surge should, however, bear an asterisk. It came against the Padres, the Marlins and the Orioles – all holders of last place in their respective divisions. Of Washington’s past six series, only one came against a team now above .500, and that team was Arizona, which is 28-27.
That the Nats have passed both the Braves and the Phillies should be no shock. The Nats were always supposed to win this division. And it is, we remind you, still May. (At least until midnight.) Still, this might be the Braves’ best shot at a team that appears to have sorted itself.
Zimmerman, Murphy and Eaton are due to return soon-ish. The Nats’ starting pitching is the league’s best, and not by a little. Their rotation’s ERA is 2.81. No other NL club is below 3.00. They still have bullpen issue – Washington always has bullpen issues – but that’s why there’s a trade deadline.
This isn’t to write off the Braves. They’ve been good. They’re still good. They’ll get Ronald Acuna back, and Mike Soroka, too. They’ll tweak their bullpen soon. (Surely, I say.) They’ve held their own against the Nats already, going 3-3. The Braves aren’t playing as well as they were two weeks ago, but this is baseball and that’s always subject to change.
They’ve got four games against the division leader at their place, and they won’t see Scherzer. This would seem a propitious moment to get it going again.
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