There are all sorts of clues to look at it in the race for the White House with just over four weeks until Election Day, but let's take a snapshot of the Obama-Romney race in the ten main swing states.
There have been some interesting poll numbers in recent days from a few states showing a bump for Mitt Romney in the wake of last week's debate victory; in coming days, it will be important to note whether that is just a blip or a real trend.
* Florida (29 Electoral Votes) - Mitt Romney stumped in Florida both on Saturday and Sunday, his first full weekend of campaigning in months. Two new polls out on Friday - which were both taken after the first debate - showed Romney ahead in Florida. The poll average in this state is now a tie.
* Ohio (18) - The President has spent a lot of time in Ohio of late (he will be back on Wednesday again) and it shows, as the poll average has him leading by 3 percent; but two polls taken after the first debate showed a definite bump for Romney. Hopefully we will see more data this week from the Buckeye State.
* Michigan (16) - Still waiting for post-debate polls in the Wolverine State, which has been trending much more to the Democrats in recent weeks. The average shows the President ahead by 10 points. My gut tells me if Ohio is close, Michigan can't be double digits right now.
* North Carolina (15) - After the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, the President enjoyed a big bump in the polls in the Tar Heel State - but that seems to have waned in recent weeks, as several polls put Romney ahead. That may increase after last week's good debate for the GOP challenger.
* Virginia (13) - The Old Dominion has seen a lot of the two candidates in recent weeks; Romney was there after last week's debate and is back again on Monday with two more events. Even before the first debate, the polls had started to close in Virginia, with three straight polls that had the President ahead by only two points. Two polls taken after the debate gave Romney a narrow lead, while another had Obama still ahead.
* Wisconsin (10) - Wisconsin is another swing state that went big for the Democrats in the aftermath of the Democratic convention, with several polls giving the President a double digit lead. One poll taken after last week's debate by PPP had that lead down to just 2 points. "There's also been a big uptick in Republican enthusiasm about the election," the PPP poll concluded.
* Colorado (9) - Voters in the Centennial State got to see the candidates up close before and after last week's debate in Denver, where the polls have been on both sides of the ledger in recent weeks, resulting in a poll average that's a tie, as the race has swung back from a slight edge for the Democrats.
* Iowa (6) - Iowa was Ground Zero when this race began in the cold of January and it still matters in October. The polls give the President an average lead of 3.5% at this point; the only poll since the debate was from Rasmussen, which gave the President a two point edge. You can sense the overall interest in the Hawkeye State, as over 110,000 absentee ballots are already in, over 60% of them from Democrats.
* Nevada (6) - This is another state that has trended for the President in the polls, but we haven't seen any data since the first debate. It is probably worth remembering that two years ago, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid trailed in the polls all the way until Election Day, and then won, so take the polling with a pinch of salt.
* New Hampshire (4) - You would think that the Granite State would be more receptive to their next door neighbor, the former Governor of Massachusetts, a man who also owns a vacation home on Lake Winnipesaukee, but that's not the case. One poll in late September gave the President a 15 point lead. But just like in Nevada, let's remember a lesson from 2008, when the polls said Barack Obama would knock out Hillary Clinton in the Democratic Primary. That didn't happen.
At this point, the edge is still with the President, but we saw how last week's debate didn't go according to conventional wisdom.
Just over four weeks to go.
