From Orlando, Florida
In a series of rallies on Monday, President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney will take their case to the voters one final time, appealing for support in a last dash through the swing states of the 2012 race for the White House.
The President will hit Wisconsin and Ohio and then end his campaign with a rally in Des Moines, Iowa, while Romney will make a final appearance in Manchester, New Hampshire, as the first two states of this race become the final stops for these candidates.
Romney's decision to return to Florida to start his final day was a bit of a surprise, given that many Republicans feel like he is the favorite here in the Sunshine State - though - the poll averages still have him ahead only slightly.
Along with Florida and New Hampshire, Romney also stumps on Monday in Virginia and Ohio.
As for the polls, the weekend was dominated by polls showing President Obama holding on to his advantage in most of the swing states, as popular prediction models gave him as much as a 4 in 5 chance of winning on Tuesday.
But some of those same polls also were based on turnout scenarios that produced an even higher turnout advantage for Democrats than they had in the big Obama win of 2008, which Republicans argued was next to impossible, especially since many of the same surveys showed an advantage for Romney among independent voters.
So, let's take a final snapshot of this race.
Florida (29 Electoral Votes) - The polls have trended towards Romney ever since the first Presidential debate in early November, but Romney has not been able to put away the Sunshine State in many of those surveys. Most polls still show him leading among independent voters. The calculus is brutally simple on Election Night - if Romney cannot win in Florida, that pretty much means President Obama will be re-elected.
Pennsylvania (20) - Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan both visited the Keystone State over the weekend, and Bill Clinton will be there on Monday for Barack Obama. There is some polling that suggests the race is a dead heat, but many Democrats believe they will prevail despite the late GOP rush in this state. Republicans spent a big chunk of money in the closing week on TV ads here. If it works, it will be seen as a smart choice to invest time here - if it doesn't, it will have been a big waste of time and a huge waste of money.
Ohio (18) - The Buckeye State remains the firewall for the President, as he has stubbornly held on to a short lead in Ohio for months, even after recent gains by Romney. The one caveat continues to be the makeup of the electorate; the last poll by the Columbus Dispatch on Sunday gave Mr. Obama only a two point lead, as the newspaper acknowledged that a strong turnout on Election Day for the Republicans could swing the state to Romney. Only twice since 1900 has the loser of Ohio gone on to win the White House.
Michigan (15) - While Michigan is still on the board as a swing state, many believe this is already in the Obama column. Romney has not invested any of his own money for ads here, and recent polls continue to give the President a lead that is outside the margin of error. Neither candidate went to Michigan in the final three weeks of the campaign, which tells a clear story about how it isn't on the front burner in this election.
North Carolina (15) - Just like Michigan is not in play, few believe North Carolina is either, as many Republicans argue it will be in the Romney column when the votes are counted. Yes, Democrats have the advantage right now in early voting, but Romney's people keep saying they are confident they will win on Election Day - and President Obama never made another trip to the Tar Heel State to shore up support.
Virginia (13) - This state is very tight, as both candidates have worked hard to win the Old Dominion. The President had a very large rally on Saturday night in the outer suburbs of Washington, D.C. Romney has also campaigned here repeatedly in recent days. While Team Obama believes they can win this state, a review of absentee voting patterns shows that support for Democrats is down across the state when compared to four years ago. Will those voters show up on Election Day? This state is a must-win for Romney.
Wisconsin (10) - The polls show this is a tight race, but with a slight edge to the President. Republicans though express confidence behind the scenes that they have the infrastructure to turn this race into a Romney victory, citing their success earlier this year with the Scott Walker recall election. Both the President and Romney have made more visits to the Badger State in the last ten days of the election than in the previous three months.
Colorado (9) - The polls have gone back and forth in the Centennial State in recent weeks, with neither candidate able to separate - the polling averages give a slight edge to the President, but Republicans believe they hold the advantage in terms of the early vote in this state, a claim Democrats dispute. If the turnout here is more like 2004, many in the GOP believe they will lay claim to Colorado's Electoral Votes on Tuesday night.
Nevada (6) - Democrats seem to have the advantage in early voting in the Silver State, as the number of ballots cast in Clark County - home to Las Vegas and lots of Democrats - is up 20% from four years ago. Republicans meanwhile were able to muster only slight gains in Washoe County, home to Reno. Unless there is a major tide for Romney on Election Day, this state seems likely to end up in the Obama column, as Romney has not been able to crack the President's support despite numerous campaign stops.
Iowa (6) - President Obama will finish his campaign in Iowa on Monday night, the state that launched his run for the White House with a win in January of 2008 against Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. The polls here have trended to the President, but they have also featured turnout models that forecast an even higher turnout for Democrats than in 2008, something Republicans say will not happen. Democrats lead in early voting by about 10% - they led by 11% in 2004 when President Bush won the Hawkeye State, giving the GOP hope about 2012.
New Hampshire (4) - Mitt Romney will end his campaign with a rally in New Hampshire on Monday night, returning to a state where he still has high hopes. A new WMUR-TV poll released over the weekend showed a dead heat, but it also used a turnout model that predicted an even better show at the polls for Democrats than in 2008 when Obama won easily. That same poll had Romney ahead by 22 points among independent voters - if that really happens, Romney will win the Granite State.
