The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2014 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.
Interesting results after Week Three:
- Region 1-AAAAAA continues to roll in the early season, going an impressive 18-0 so far. However, aside from a couple of admittedly notable opponents, the region has played against a relatively weak slate. Of their 15 in-state opponents, 12 have been from a lower classification, as are eight of their remaining 11 in-state non-region opponents. Assuming Colquitt County defeats Enterprise High School from Alabama, who has started the season 1-2, Maxwell calculates there is a 59.5% chance that all six teams will be 5-0 entering into region play.
- Two-time defending Class AAAAAA champion Norcross dropped nearly 10 points after their 26-0 loss to Milton, but their historical performance combined with their Week 1 win over Tucker has kept them buoyed in the top 10 so far. Milton joins them in the top 10 as a result of the win.
- McEachern drops to 0-2 with their loss to Buford, but has played against the state's toughest schedule to date. Upcoming games against Peachtree Ridge and Lovejoy won't make it any easier, and that's only before they enter region play against the likes of North Cobb, Hillgrove, and Marietta. In total, they play the toughest schedule in the state. However, it's still possible for them to start 0-4 and win the top seed in Region 4-AAAAAA.
As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.
The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 43.68%.
For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 420 of 440 total games including 4 ties (95.91%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 11.36 points.
The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.
All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
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Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings
Home Advantage: -0.56
By Class
All-Class
Regions
Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.
Least Likely Results
These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.
Highest Rated Matchups
These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.
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