Sports

Maxwell Week Three Summary: 1-AAAAAA is 18-0, but against smaller competition

By Todd Holcomb
Sept 9, 2014

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2014 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results after Week Three:

- Region 1-AAAAAA continues to roll in the early season, going an impressive 18-0 so far. However, aside from a couple of admittedly notable opponents, the region has played against a relatively weak slate. Of their 15 in-state opponents, 12 have been from a lower classification, as are eight of their remaining 11 in-state non-region opponents. Assuming Colquitt County defeats Enterprise High School from Alabama, who has started the season 1-2, Maxwell calculates there is a 59.5% chance that all six teams will be 5-0 entering into region play.

- Two-time defending Class AAAAAA champion Norcross dropped nearly 10 points after their 26-0 loss to Milton, but their historical performance combined with their Week 1 win over Tucker has kept them buoyed in the top 10 so far. Milton joins them in the top 10 as a result of the win.

- McEachern drops to 0-2 with their loss to Buford, but has played against the state's toughest schedule to date. Upcoming games against Peachtree Ridge and Lovejoy won't make it any easier, and that's only before they enter region play against the likes of North Cobb, Hillgrove, and Marietta. In total, they play the toughest schedule in the state. However, it's still possible for them to start 0-4 and win the top seed in Region 4-AAAAAA.

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 43.68%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 420 of 440 total games including 4 ties (95.91%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 11.36 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

Home Advantage: -0.56

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Colquitt County 3-0 95.08 1 Northside (Warner Robins) 2-0 83.34
2 Grayson 2-0 87.72 2 Kell 2-0 77.89
3 Camden County 3-0 87.70 3 Ware County 2-0 75.72
4 North Gwinnett 2-1 85.88 4 Gainesville 0-1 74.31
5 Lowndes 3-0 85.51 5 Allatoona 3-0 73.45
6 Milton 2-0 84.32 6 Creekside 2-1 72.51
7 Norcross 2-1 84.12 7 Coffee 2-0 71.19
8 Dacula 2-0 82.90 8 East Paulding 1-1 69.32
9 Valdosta 3-0 81.36 9 Stephenson 1-1 67.58
10 Lovejoy 2-0 81.01 10 Glynn Academy 2-1 65.60
11 Peachtree Ridge 2-0 80.87 11 Flowery Branch 1-0 65.51
12 Walton 3-0 80.46 12 Carver (Columbus) 2-1 64.75
13 McEachern 0-2 80.11 13 Stockbridge 1-1 63.34
14 Tucker 1-2 79.11 14 Mays 2-1 62.93
15 North Cobb 2-1 78.74 15 Warner Robins 1-1 61.77
 
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 3-0 93.14 1 Washington County 2-0 79.99
2 Sandy Creek 3-0 86.58 2 Calhoun 2-0 77.12
3 Griffin 2-0 83.61 3 Blessed Trinity 2-0 68.64
4 Marist 2-0 75.05 4 Jefferson 3-0 67.59
5 Woodward Academy 2-0 69.68 5 Peach County 2-0 67.10
6 Burke County 2-1 69.22 6 Westminster (Atlanta) 2-0 62.55
7 Thomas County Central 1-1 68.50 7 Westside (Macon) 2-0 59.63
8 Cartersville 1-1 65.26 8 Hart County 2-0 57.75
9 Carrollton 0-3 63.98 9 Ringgold 2-0 57.01
10 Whitewater 2-0 63.88 10 Central (Carrollton) 2-0 56.81
11 Troup 2-0 61.86 11 Elbert County 2-0 56.05
12 Cairo 2-0 61.28 12 Cedar Grove 1-1 55.25
13 Wayne County 2-1 60.09 13 Callaway 2-1 54.92
14 St. Pius X 0-2 59.89 14 Laney 1-1 52.51
15 Thomson 1-1 57.09 15 West Hall 2-0 48.44
 
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Greater Atlanta Christian 3-0 66.83 1 Aquinas 2-0 52.81
2 Brooks County 1-2 62.93 2 Savannah Christian 2-0 49.43
3 Lovett 1-2 61.20 3 Emanuel County Institute 2-0 49.29
4 Fitzgerald 3-0 59.46 4 Mount Paran Christian 3-0 49.18
5 Benedictine 0-1 58.12 5 Eagle’s Landing Christian 0-3 48.31
6 Lamar County 1-0-1 57.57 6 Charlton County 2-0 46.00
7 Vidalia 3-0 56.63 7 Marion County 1-0 45.80
8 Washington-Wilkes 2-0 53.18 8 Calvary Day 2-0 45.79
9 Jefferson County 0-2 46.89 9 Landmark Christian 3-0 45.44
10 Thomasville 0-2 45.23 10 Dooly County 2-0 43.59
11 B.E.S.T. Academy 1-1 44.86 11 Hawkinsville 2-0 43.22
12 Bowdon 1-1 44.44 12 Prince Avenue Christian 1-1 42.46
13 Early County 1-1-1 44.42 13 Irwin County 1-1-1 42.35
14 Heard County 0-2 44.40 14 Clinch County 1-1 40.43
15 Dublin 1-1 41.21 15 Lincoln County 1-1 40.02

All-Class

Rank Cls Rnk Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rnk
1 1 Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 3-0 95.08 59.54 67
2 1 Buford 8-AAAA 3-0 93.14 63.53 46
3 2 Grayson 8-AAAAAA 2-0 87.72 75.92 17
4 3 Camden County 1-AAAAAA 3-0 87.70 56.12 86
5 2 Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 3-0 86.58 43.67 176
6 4 North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 2-1 85.88 78.97 9
7 5 Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 3-0 85.51 54.85 92
8 6 Milton 5-AAAAAA 2-0 84.32 79.36 7
9 7 Norcross 7-AAAAAA 2-1 84.12 77.48 14
10 3 Griffin 4-Div B-AAAA 2-0 83.61 46.68 151
11 1 Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 2-0 83.34 62.55 54
12 8 Dacula 8-AAAAAA 2-0 82.90 77.14 15
13 9 Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 3-0 81.36 59.35 68
14 10 Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 2-0 81.01 46.93 148
15 11 Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 2-0 80.87 69.80 30
16 12 Walton 5-AAAAAA 3-0 80.46 68.57 33
17 13 McEachern 4-AAAAAA 0-2 80.11 89.23 1
18 1 Washington County 3-AAA 2-0 79.99 56.83 83
19 14 Tucker 2-AAAAAA 1-2 79.11 57.80 78
20 15 North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 2-1 78.74 78.33 12
21 16 Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 2-1 78.06 70.85 27
22 2 Kell 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-0 77.89 65.19 43
23 17 Hughes 3-AAAAAA 2-1 77.52 74.54 20
24 18 Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 1-2 77.48 80.77 6
25 2 Calhoun 6-AAA 2-0 77.12 62.06 56
26 19 Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 2-1 76.80 70.35 28
27 20 Etowah 5-AAAAAA 3-0 76.52 61.42 60
28 3 Ware County 3-AAAAA 2-0 75.72 63.49 48
29 4 Marist 6-AAAA 2-0 75.05 61.76 59
30 21 Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 1-1 74.60 73.15 24
31 4 Gainesville 8-AAAAA 0-1 74.31 87.16 2
32 5 Allatoona 5-AAAAA 3-0 73.45 60.52 64
33 22 Archer 8-AAAAAA 0-2 73.22 83.44 4
34 6 Creekside 6-Div B-AAAAA 2-1 72.51 66.23 41
35 23 Marietta 4-AAAAAA 1-2 71.24 74.30 21
36 7 Coffee 3-AAAAA 2-0 71.19 34.55 245
37 5 Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 2-0 69.68 52.40 115
38 8 East Paulding 5-AAAAA 1-1 69.32 66.26 40
39 6 Burke County 3-AAAA 2-1 69.22 60.18 65
40 24 Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 0-2 68.78 82.46 5
41 25 East Coweta 3-AAAAAA 2-0 68.77 53.56 107
42 3 Blessed Trinity 4-Div B-AAA 2-0 68.64 54.49 96
43 7 Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 1-1 68.50 61.79 57
44 26 Tift County 1-AAAAAA 3-0 68.09 38.50 216
45 27 South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 0-2 68.07 78.63 11
46 4 Jefferson 8-AAA 3-0 67.59 37.49 225
47 9 Stephenson 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 67.58 46.33 152
48 5 Peach County 2-AAA 2-0 67.10 53.88 104
49 28 Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 0-3 66.96 78.98 8
50 1 Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 3-0 66.83 53.40 108
51 29 Parkview 8-AAAAAA 1-1 66.38 63.98 45
52 10 Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 2-1 65.60 68.05 36
53 11 Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 1-0 65.51 39.77 201
54 8 Cartersville 7-AAAA 1-1 65.26 58.81 73
55 30 Newnan 3-AAAAAA 1-1 64.89 67.61 37
56 12 Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 2-1 64.75 51.57 125
57 9 Carrollton 5-AAAA 0-3 63.98 73.40 23
58 10 Whitewater 5-AAAA 2-0 63.88 39.89 200
59 13 Stockbridge 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-1 63.34 47.75 142
61 2 Brooks County 1-AA 1-2 62.93 58.08 75
60 14 Mays 6-Div B-AAAAA 2-1 62.93 51.79 123
62 6 Westminster (Atlanta) 4-Div B-AAA 2-0 62.55 56.86 82
63 31 Lee County 1-AAAAAA 3-0 62.23 45.55 161
64 32 West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 0-2 61.97 76.60 16
65 33 Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 3-0 61.96 41.75 190
66 34 Cherokee 5-AAAAAA 2-1 61.95 58.03 76
67 11 Troup 5-AAAA 2-0 61.86 48.51 135
68 15 Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 1-1 61.77 46.18 154
69 35 Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 1-1 61.42 63.13 52
70 12 Cairo 1-Div A-AAAA 2-0 61.28 49.31 133
71 3 Lovett 6-AA 1-2 61.20 58.36 74
72 16 South Paulding 5-AAAAA 2-0 61.02 47.02 146
73 36 Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 1-1 60.77 67.17 38
74 37 Harrison 4-AAAAAA 2-1 60.23 54.37 97
75 17 Dalton 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 60.15 77.68 13
76 13 Wayne County 3-AAAA 2-1 60.09 54.23 99
77 14 St. Pius X 6-AAAA 0-2 59.89 69.16 31
78 7 Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 2-0 59.63 42.64 185
79 38 Roswell 5-AAAAAA 1-1 59.54 63.32 50
80 4 Fitzgerald 1-AA 3-0 59.46 42.95 182
81 18 Lanier 8-AAAAA 2-0 59.40 52.93 111
82 19 Brunswick 3-AAAAA 1-1 59.32 48.48 136
83 39 North Paulding 4-AAAAAA 1-2 59.06 63.09 53
84 40 Newton 2-AAAAAA 2-0 58.63 31.84 267
85 5 Benedictine 2-AA 0-1 58.12 66.27 39
86 8 Hart County 8-AAA 2-0 57.75 36.27 231
87 6 Lamar County 4-AA 1-0-1 57.57 30.90 273
88 41 South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 1-1 57.48 57.14 80
89 15 Thomson 3-AAAA 1-1 57.09 63.44 49
90 9 Ringgold 6-AAA 2-0 57.01 33.73 252
91 10 Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 2-0 56.81 44.93 167
92 7 Vidalia 2-AA 3-0 56.63 35.96 234
94 20 Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 1-0 56.29 28.26 299
93 42 Westlake 3-AAAAAA 1-1 56.29 52.25 116
95 43 Lambert 6-AAAAAA 1-1 56.25 50.85 130
96 11 Elbert County 8-AAA 2-0 56.05 44.11 173
97 21 Statesboro 3-AAAAA 0-2 55.99 65.21 42
98 22 Houston County 2-AAAAA 2-0 55.72 34.18 246
99 16 North Hall 8-AAAA 0-1 55.60 68.15 35
100 17 Mary Persons 2-AAAA 1-1 55.45 54.23 100
101 23 New Manchester 5-AAAAA 2-0 55.38 44.65 168
102 12 Cedar Grove 4-Div A-AAA 1-1 55.25 53.35 109
103 18 Eagle's Landing 4-Div A-AAAA 2-0 55.15 39.18 206
104 13 Callaway 5-AAA 2-1 54.92 45.09 165
105 24 Harris County 1-AAAAA 0-2 54.69 59.07 71
106 19 Columbia 6-AAAA 1-1 54.42 53.77 105
107 25 Alexander 5-AAAAA 2-0 54.40 41.43 192
108 26 Carver (Atlanta) 6-Div B-AAAAA 2-1 54.05 51.92 119
109 20 Westover 1-Div B-AAAA 1-1 53.91 52.49 114
110 44 Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 1-1 53.49 54.68 94
111 27 Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 3-0 53.42 35.30 239
112 21 Bainbridge 1-Div B-AAAA 1-1 53.38 52.85 112
113 22 North Oconee 8-AAAA 0-2 53.19 68.73 32
114 8 Washington-Wilkes 8-AA 2-0 53.18 30.97 271
115 28 Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 1-1 53.00 30.17 283
116 29 Jones County 2-AAAAA 2-0 52.94 26.49 313
117 1 Aquinas 7-Div B-A 2-0 52.81 33.94 247
118 30 Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 1-2 52.79 61.79 58
119 31 Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 52.69 51.94 118
120 14 Laney 3-AAA 1-1 52.51 51.88 120
121 32 Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-1 52.28 52.76 113
122 45 Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 1-2 52.17 54.96 90
123 33 M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 0-2 52.06 63.49 47
124 34 Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-1 52.04 51.46 126
125 35 Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 51.93 53.35 110
126 23 Baldwin 2-AAAA 2-0 51.68 32.60 259
127 36 Effingham County 3-AAAAA 2-0 51.32 42.90 183
128 24 Gilmer 7-AAAA 2-0 51.21 26.38 314
129 25 Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 1-1 51.02 48.25 137
130 26 Eastside 4-Div A-AAAA 2-0 50.90 36.41 229
131 37 Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 0-2 50.74 59.13 69
132 38 Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-1 50.43 47.42 143
133 46 Rockdale County 2-AAAAAA 3-0 50.40 36.27 232
134 47 Northview 6-AAAAAA 2-0 50.38 30.92 272
135 39 Sequoyah 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-2 50.21 72.58 25
136 48 Campbell 3-AAAAAA 2-0 49.86 25.91 316
137 27 Grady 6-AAAA 1-1 49.59 48.06 139
138 49 South Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 1-1 49.52 43.54 177
139 40 Mundy's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-2 49.46 71.21 26
140 2 Savannah Christian 3-Div A-A 2-0 49.43 37.94 220
141 3 Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 2-0 49.29 33.85 250
142 4 Mount Paran Christian 6-Div A-A 3-0 49.18 32.84 258
143 41 Drew 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 49.03 62.19 55
144 42 Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-0 48.82 34.67 244
145 43 Loganville 8-AAAAA 1-0 48.73 36.87 227
146 50 Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 2-0 48.54 43.05 181
147 15 West Hall 7-AAA 2-0 48.44 26.32 315
148 5 Eagle's Landing Christian 5-A 0-3 48.31 60.56 63
149 28 Pickens 7-AAAA 2-0 48.27 40.20 197
150 44 Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 1-1 48.02 32.42 260
151 45 McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 47.88 45.45 162
152 51 North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 0-2 47.41 57.72 79
153 29 Perry 2-AAAA 1-1 47.11 55.76 88
155 9 Jefferson County 3-AA 0-2 46.89 63.15 51
154 30 Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 0-2 46.89 68.18 34
156 31 Stephens County 8-AAAA 1-1 46.75 38.93 210
157 32 West Laurens 2-AAAA 2-1 46.65 44.19 171
158 46 Evans 2-AAAAA 1-1 46.37 54.25 98
159 16 Adairsville 6-AAA 2-0 46.15 34.70 243
160 6 Charlton County 2-A 2-0 46.00 35.24 241
161 52 Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 1-2 45.96 54.74 93
162 53 Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-2 45.82 75.32 19
163 7 Marion County 4-A 1-0 45.80 19.81 342
164 8 Calvary Day 3-Div A-A 2-0 45.79 17.75 350
165 47 Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-2 45.52 73.51 22
166 48 LaGrange 1-AAAAA 1-2 45.45 50.10 132
167 9 Landmark Christian 5-A 3-0 45.44 29.28 290
168 10 Thomasville 1-AA 0-2 45.23 53.96 103
169 17 Pierce County 1-Div A-AAA 2-0 45.15 27.18 309
170 33 White County 8-AAAA 1-1 45.06 39.01 209
171 49 Hiram 5-AAAAA 1-1 44.97 46.31 153
172 11 B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 1-1 44.86 55.87 87
173 50 Creekview 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-2 44.51 56.52 85
174 12 Bowdon 5-AA 1-1 44.44 41.58 191
175 13 Early County 1-AA 1-1-1 44.42 39.28 204
176 34 Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 1-1 44.41 30.34 281
177 14 Heard County 5-AA 0-2 44.40 56.63 84
178 35 Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 1-0 44.37 30.99 270
179 51 Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 0-2 44.12 46.86 149
180 36 Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 0-2 43.86 70.24 29
181 18 Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 1-1 43.79 51.13 128
182 10 Dooly County 4-A 2-0 43.59 28.70 296
183 37 Liberty County 3-AAAA 2-1 43.46 37.80 221
184 52 Salem 8-AAAAA 1-1 43.32 47.26 144
185 11 Hawkinsville 4-A 2-0 43.22 30.34 282
186 54 Douglas County 3-AAAAAA 0-2 43.21 54.89 91
187 53 Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-0 43.08 32.01 264
188 55 Pope 5-AAAAAA 0-2 42.90 58.85 72
189 56 Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 1-1 42.77 39.12 208
190 54 Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-2 42.61 60.08 66
191 12 Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 1-1 42.46 28.13 302
192 13 Irwin County 2-A 1-1-1 42.35 44.56 170
193 19 Appling County 1-Div A-AAA 0-2 42.34 51.74 124
194 57 Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 0-2 42.30 59.10 70
195 20 Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 2-1 42.27 42.37 187
196 38 Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 1-1 42.22 48.16 138
197 21 Washington 4-Div B-AAA 0-2 42.08 51.82 122
198 58 Duluth 7-AAAAAA 1-2 41.80 43.49 178
199 39 Worth County 1-Div B-AAAA 0-2 41.55 60.84 62
200 55 Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 0-1 41.48 55.49 89
201 15 Dublin 3-AA 1-1 41.21 39.21 205
202 59 Centennial 6-AAAAAA 0-2 41.12 53.97 102
203 56 Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-0 41.08 21.93 333
204 40 Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 0-2 41.04 78.66 10
205 57 Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-0 40.95 32.30 261
206 58 Shaw 1-AAAAA 1-2 40.90 47.91 141
207 59 Paulding County 5-AAAAA 1-1 40.77 41.22 194
208 14 Clinch County 2-A 1-1 40.43 40.52 195
209 41 Chestatee 8-AAAA 0-2 40.33 56.98 81
210 22 Dodge County 1-Div A-AAA 2-0 40.23 21.33 336
211 42 Lithonia 6-AAAA 2-0 40.18 17.07 353
212 60 Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 0-2 40.13 54.22 101
213 15 Lincoln County 7-Div B-A 1-1 40.02 53.75 106
214 43 Locust Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 1-1 39.68 42.05 189
215 60 Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 0-2 39.37 51.85 121
216 44 Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 1-2 39.26 39.15 207
217 61 Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 38.88 45.68 159
218 45 Fayette County 5-AAAA 1-2 38.87 45.31 163
219 62 Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 3-0 38.63 17.37 352
220 16 Brookstone 4-A 2-0 38.45 28.61 297
221 23 Cedartown 5-AAA 0-2 38.36 48.00 140
222 63 Starr's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-2 38.29 51.37 127
223 16 Darlington 7-AA 1-1 38.10 28.22 300
224 17 Tattnall Square 7-Div A-A 2-0 37.70 3.24 401
225 24 Morgan County 8-AAA 1-1 37.56 33.90 248
226 17 Macon County 4-AA 1-1 37.40 37.51 224
227 18 Wesleyan 6-AA 2-1 37.00 30.78 275
228 25 Cook 1-Div A-AAA 0-2 36.99 49.09 134
229 46 Ridgeland 7-AAAA 1-1 36.81 27.82 305
230 18 Pacelli 4-A 2-0 36.33 28.21 301
231 47 Monroe Area 8-AAAA 0-2 36.31 38.46 217
232 19 Metter 3-AA 2-1 36.23 33.30 255
233 64 Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-0 36.11 20.81 339
234 65 South Effingham 3-AAAAA 1-1 35.94 31.97 265
235 20 Manchester 5-AA 1-1 35.80 35.85 235
236 48 Veterans 2-AAAA 0-2 35.76 46.00 157
237 21 Screven County 3-AA 2-0 35.69 24.59 322
238 22 Holy Innocents 6-AA 1-2 35.65 41.37 193
239 26 East Hall 7-AAA 1-1 35.35 42.07 188
240 19 First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 1-0 35.32 29.69 286
241 20 Mount Pisgah Christian 6-Div B-A 1-1 35.29 32.26 262
242 27 Kendrick 2-AAA 2-0 35.22 7.58 393
243 49 Madison County 8-AAAA 2-1 34.56 30.59 278
244 23 Model 7-AA 3-0 34.51 22.99 326
245 21 Stratford Academy 7-Div A-A 1-1 34.45 26.64 312
246 24 Northeast 4-AA 1-1 34.29 29.82 285
247 50 Chamblee 6-AAAA 0-2 34.05 38.60 214
248 25 Seminole County 1-AA 0-1 33.74 35.77 237
249 66 Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 1-1 33.25 36.34 230
250 28 Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 2-0 32.95 18.04 348
251 26 Pace Academy 6-AA 1-2 32.91 45.15 164
252 67 Winder-Barrow 8-AAAAA 1-1 32.87 46.77 150
254 69 Grovetown 2-AAAAA 1-1 32.59 30.55 279
253 68 Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-2 32.59 44.11 174
255 51 Maynard Jackson 4-Div A-AAA 1-1 32.58 31.55 268
256 70 Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-1 32.54 30.75 276
257 27 McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 0-3 32.49 50.82 131
258 29 Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 1-1 32.23 42.72 184
259 52 Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-2 32.04 64.49 44
260 30 Dawson County 7-AAA 0-2 32.01 46.08 156
261 28 Pelham 1-AA 2-0 31.80 8.69 388
262 71 Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-2 31.69 44.63 169
263 29 Bacon County 2-AA 1-1 31.55 27.47 308
264 53 Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 0-2 31.55 50.97 129
265 30 Bleckley County 4-AA 0-3 31.07 43.18 180
266 54 Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 1-1 30.84 31.88 266
267 72 Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 0-1-1 30.73 38.52 215
268 22 Commerce 8-A 2-0 30.73 12.15 374
269 31 Rutland 2-AAA 0-2 30.59 46.96 147
270 73 Northside (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 1-1 30.56 27.54 307
271 31 Swainsboro 3-AA 0-3 30.35 61.22 61
272 32 Berrien 1-AA 1-1 30.10 39.67 202
273 74 River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 29.79 38.34 218
274 32 Jackson County 8-AAA 0-2 29.74 40.37 196
275 23 Wilcox County 2-A 0-2 29.60 43.41 179
276 33 Jackson 2-AAA 1-1 29.59 36.50 228
277 24 Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 1-1 29.58 12.39 373
278 33 Dade County 7-AA 1-1 29.52 - -
279 61 Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 1-2 29.43 37.65 223
280 25 Trion 6-Div A-A 2-0 29.29 9.48 386
281 55 Howard 2-AAAA 1-1-1 29.13 37.71 222
282 34 North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 0-2 28.94 45.70 158
283 26 George Walton Academy 8-A 1-1 28.80 22.36 331
284 34 Bremen 5-AA 1-1 28.78 23.58 324
285 35 Oconee County 8-AAA 2-0 28.61 12.71 371
286 75 Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 0-2 28.37 38.72 213
287 27 Claxton 3-Div A-A 1-1 28.21 29.39 288
288 56 Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 2-0 28.18 26.93 311
289 36 Southwest 2-AAA 1-1 27.94 44.16 172
290 28 Turner County 2-A 1-1 27.80 29.14 292
291 37 Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 0-2 27.70 43.70 175
292 35 Rabun County 8-AA 1-2 27.18 38.73 212
293 38 Sonoraville 6-AAA 1-1 27.13 30.87 274
294 39 Pepperell 5-AAA 0-2 26.91 42.61 186
295 40 Towers 4-Div A-AAA 0-2 26.57 45.06 166
296 29 Mitchell County 1-A 1-1 26.56 25.48 319
297 41 Glenn Hills 3-AAA 0-2 26.53 57.87 77
298 36 Union County 8-AA 2-0 26.31 3.96 400
299 42 Rockmart 5-AAA 1-1 26.10 24.39 323
300 37 Coosa 7-AA 0-2 26.10 46.15 155
301 30 Johnson County 3-Div B-A 0-2 25.90 33.16 256
302 31 Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 1-1 25.83 33.79 251
303 32 Taylor County 4-A 0-1-1 25.70 28.96 293
304 57 Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 0-2 25.26 75.85 18
305 76 Apalachee 8-AAAAA 0-2 24.84 35.19 242
306 43 Central (Macon) 2-AAA 1-1 24.42 25.52 318
307 77 Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 1-1 24.13 33.02 257
308 44 Westside (Augusta) 3-AAA 0-2-1 24.03 37.31 226
309 62 Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 1-2 24.02 27.98 303
310 33 Telfair County 2-A 2-0 24.00 14.11 367
311 34 Greenville 4-A 1-0 23.85 11.14 379
312 38 Bryan County 2-AA 0-2 23.67 32.22 263
313 35 Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 1-1 23.28 9.21 387
314 36 Walker 6-Div A-A 1-1 22.72 27.90 304
315 58 LaFayette 7-AAAA 2-0 22.18 8.58 390
316 39 East Laurens 3-AA 1-0-1 22.13 11.61 378
317 37 Athens Christian 8-A 1-2 21.96 20.59 340
318 78 Columbus 1-AAAAA 1-1 21.93 27.56 306
319 38 Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 0-2 21.92 38.80 211
320 79 Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 21.83 21.58 335
321 45 Franklin County 7-AAA 0-2 21.80 52.25 117
322 39 Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-Div A-A 2-1 21.72 7.66 392
323 46 Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 0-2 21.68 39.99 198
324 47 North Murray 6-AAA 1-1 21.66 18.36 347
325 40 Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 0-1 21.56 35.77 236
326 48 Fannin County 7-AAA 1-1 20.76 25.69 317
327 49 Lumpkin County 7-AAA 0-2 20.66 30.41 280
328 41 Christian Heritage 6-Div A-A 0-2 20.65 39.98 199
329 42 Pinecrest Academy 6-Div B-A 1-0 20.57 10.02 384
330 43 Athens Academy 8-A 1-1 20.51 5.26 398
331 44 Miller County 1-A 0-2 20.37 45.67 160
332 59 Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 0-1 20.28 27.12 310
334 51 Beach 1-Div B-AAA 2-1 19.85 16.74 356
333 50 Spencer 2-AAA 0-2 19.85 47.09 145
335 52 Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 1-1 19.30 24.70 320
336 63 Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 0-2 18.91 38.22 219
337 45 King's Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 0-1 18.80 23.28 325
338 46 Portal 3-Div A-A 2-0 18.71 7.94 391
339 53 South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 1-1 18.65 30.62 277
340 80 Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-2 18.30 35.30 240
341 47 Calhoun County 1-A 2-1 18.12 22.01 332
342 54 McNair 4-Div A-AAA 1-1 17.95 16.03 357
343 64 Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 0-2 17.85 54.51 95
344 40 Monticello 4-AA 0-2 17.55 28.89 295
345 41 Groves 2-AA 2-0 17.46 -2.50 407
346 60 Southeast Whitfield 7-AAAA 2-1 17.21 -0.56 406
347 61 Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 1-1 16.77 15.20 364
348 55 Jordan 2-AAA 1-1 16.67 17.81 349
350 62 Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 1-1 16.43 30.07 284
349 42 Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 1-0 16.43 11.73 375
351 43 Long County 2-AA 0-1 16.22 33.51 253
352 56 Banks County 7-AAA 1-1 16.22 20.96 338
353 44 Greene County 8-AA 1-1 15.90 20.35 341
354 48 Atkinson County 2-A 2-0 15.83 9.97 385
355 81 Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-1 15.42 28.60 298
356 57 Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 1-2 15.35 24.65 321
357 45 Gordon Lee 7-AA 1-2 15.32 19.21 344
358 49 Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 0-2 15.16 33.89 249
359 46 Putnam County 4-AA 1-2 14.87 16.83 355
360 82 North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-1 14.72 11.12 380
361 50 Terrell County 1-A 0-2 13.57 36.11 233
362 51 Jenkins County 3-Div A-A 2-0 13.31 4.86 399
363 63 Redan 6-AAAA 0-2 12.76 20.98 337
364 83 Hardaway 1-AAAAA 0-3 12.56 22.88 327
365 64 Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 0-3 12.31 33.42 254
366 52 Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 1-1 12.29 10.03 383
367 53 Randolph-Clay 1-A 2-1 12.28 13.84 369
368 54 Strong Rock Christian 5-A 2-0 12.21 2.16 403
369 47 Chattahoochee County 5-AA 1-1 12.03 15.90 361
370 65 Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 0-1 11.74 22.39 330
371 58 Haralson County 5-AAA 0-2 11.71 22.78 328
372 59 Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 1-2 11.59 15.66 363
373 60 Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 1-1 11.38 -6.44 411
374 55 Schley County 4-A 1-0 10.98 -9.75 413
375 56 Lanier County 2-A 1-2 10.91 14.56 365
376 48 Chattooga 7-AA 0-2 10.62 29.24 291
377 57 St. Francis 6-Div B-A 2-0 9.69 -17.98 416
378 66 Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-1 9.67 87.14 3
379 84 North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 0-2 9.46 29.60 287
380 49 Hapeville 6-AA 0-2 9.06 29.35 289
381 85 Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 0-3 8.69 39.31 203
382 58 Treutlen 3-Div B-A 0-2 8.51 16.01 358
383 50 Jeff Davis 2-AA 1-1 8.35 -2.99 408
384 59 Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 1-1 8.08 13.13 370
385 60 Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 2-1 6.96 6.47 396
386 61 Josey 3-AAA 1-1 6.24 11.72 376
388 51 Harlem 3-AA 0-2 5.38 28.92 294
387 62 Hephzibah 3-AAA 0-1 5.38 15.98 359
389 63 Butler 3-AAA 0-1 4.74 5.68 397
390 64 East Jackson 8-AAA 1-1 4.61 1.41 404
391 65 Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 0-2 4.24 15.88 362
392 52 Armuchee 7-AA 1-2 3.63 12.41 372
393 67 Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 0-2 3.62 17.04 354
394 53 Temple 5-AA 1-1 3.61 3.16 402
395 54 Oglethorpe County 8-AA 0-2 3.45 35.53 238
396 66 Gordon Central 6-AAA 0-2 2.96 19.70 343
397 68 New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 0-3 2.69 31.07 269
398 61 Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 0-2 2.33 17.46 351
399 62 Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 1-1 1.20 1.05 405
400 67 Murray County 6-AAA 1-1 0.18 18.99 345
401 63 Warren County 7-Div B-A 1-2 -1.60 14.08 368
402 64 Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 0-1 -2.48 22.69 329
403 65 Lakeview Academy 8-A 0-2 -5.26 6.59 395
404 68 Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 0-2 -5.38 10.42 382
405 69 Islands 1-Div B-AAA 0-2 -7.69 14.53 366
406 55 K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 0-2 -8.12 21.87 334
407 66 Baconton 1-A 1-2 -9.19 11.01 381
408 56 Crawford County 4-AA† 1-2 -11.21 -7.20 412
409 67 Central (Talbotton) 4-A 1-1 -11.27 -10.20 414
410 68 Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 0-3 -11.44 8.66 389
411 69 Towns County 8-A 0-2 -11.63 7.26 394
412 70 Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 1-2 -11.79 -5.83 410
413 71 Stewart County 1-A† 0-2 -16.53 18.86 346
414 57 Social Circle 8-AA 0-1 -17.64 11.65 377
415 72 North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 1-1 -21.80 -10.47 415
416 69 Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 0-2 -30.41 -5.21 409
417 73 Providence Christian 8-A 0-2 -31.82 15.93 360
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Rating Average Rating
1 1-AAAAAA 97.37 80.42
2 7-AAAAAA 89.01 68.75
3 8-AAAAAA 85.77 68.39
4 4-AAAAAA 83.46 68.44
5 5-AAAAAA 83.40 65.23
6 5-AAAA 82.67 64.54
7 2-AAAAAA 79.67 55.52
8 3-AAAAAA 75.12 57.37
9 3-AAAAA 74.65 56.59
10 5-AAAAA 70.30 51.52
11 6-AAAAA 68.27 52.21
6-Div B-AAAAA 73.12 55.75
6-Div A-AAAAA 63.90 49.37
12 6-AAAAAA 67.82 50.06
13 3-AAAA 67.67 51.64
14 8-AAAAA 67.47 48.17
15 2-AAAAA 67.36 45.38
16 8-AAAA 66.25 47.70
17 1-AAAA 63.81 44.72
1-Div A-AAAA 68.14 47.74
1-Div B-AAAA 59.33 42.21
18 8-AAA 63.72 41.05
19 6-AAAA 63.53 45.22
20 1-AA 62.07 43.42
21 7-AAAAA 61.79 42.25
7-Div B-AAAAA 63.27 39.94
7-Div A-AAAAA 60.77 43.98
22 4-AAAAA 60.71 43.82
4-Div B-AAAAA 63.65 47.01
4-Div A-AAAAA 57.92 40.79
23 6-AA 60.19 36.92
24 2-AAAA 60.14 44.55
25 7-AAAA 59.85 38.91
26 1-AAAAA 59.82 38.82
27 4-AAAA 58.19 36.45
4-Div B-AAAA 63.32 37.76
4-Div A-AAAA 55.05 35.12
28 4-AAA 57.86 34.09
4-Div B-AAA 65.63 42.08
4-Div A-AAA 47.73 28.75
29 3-AAA 56.92 23.03
30 5-AAA 56.71 35.53
31 6-AAA 55.84 21.37
32 2-AAA 55.20 32.14
33 2-AA 52.34 28.84
34 5-A 49.75 27.43
35 4-A 49.11 31.04
36 3-AA 48.99 32.16
37 4-AA 48.28 31.42
38 5-AA 48.21 29.35
39 2-A 47.36 29.73
40 1-AAA 46.70 28.97
1-Div A-AAA 50.99 35.37
1-Div B-AAA 38.99 20.63
41 3-A 45.24 22.17
3-Div A-A 48.27 27.43
3-Div B-A 39.93 14.76
42 7-AAA 44.78 27.26
43 7-A 44.11 25.78
7-Div B-A 45.49 25.02
7-Div A-A 43.11 26.22
44 7-AA 40.33 22.85
45 8-AA 40.09 18.07
46 6-A 39.09 23.30
6-Div A-A 42.60 27.69
6-Div B-A 35.78 19.74
47 8-A 36.04 13.90
48 1-A 28.52 14.57

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
8/22 Lamar County Howard 19 – 19 27.89 94.2% 0.234
8/29 Southeast Whitfield Murray County 21 – 22 17.60 85.3% 0.242
8/29 Callaway B.E.S.T. Academy 7 – 14 10.63 74.3% 0.322
8/22 Athens Christian Strong Rock Christian 7 – 8 9.19 71.5% 0.371
9/5 Monroe Area Walnut Grove 18 – 23 7.57 68.1% 0.381
8/29 North Gwinnett North Cobb 29 – 36 6.58 65.9% 0.392
9/5 Cook Berrien 14 – 21 6.33 65.3% 0.397
8/29 Northeast Southwest 16 – 20 5.79 64.1% 0.414
8/22 South Forsyth Mountain View 31 – 38 4.12 60.1% 0.435
8/29 Richmond Academy Westside (Augusta) 24 – 24 7.26 67.4% 0.469
9/5 Heritage (Conyers) Salem 14 – 19 1.35 53.4% 0.481
8/22 Columbia Southwest DeKalb 12 – 13 1.59 54.0% 0.482
8/29 Wesleyan East Hall 13 – 20 1.09 52.7% 0.484
9/5 Johnson County Telfair County 20 – 21 1.33 53.3% 0.485
8/29 Hardaway Chattahoochee County 19 – 22 1.09 52.7% 0.486

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
90.25 11/7 Colquitt County Camden County - 6.83 66.4%
88.34 10/3 Colquitt County Lowndes - 9.01 71.1%
86.42 10/10 Camden County Lowndes - 2.75 56.8%
84.96 10/3 North Gwinnett Norcross - 1.20 53.0%
84.60 10/24 Grayson Dacula - 5.38 63.1%
84.22 9/5 Norcross Milton 0 - 26 0.35 50.9%
83.71 10/3 Camden County Valdosta - 5.78 64.1%
83.62 10/17 Colquitt County Valdosta - 14.28 80.7%
83.02 9/5 Buford McEachern 27 - 20 12.47 77.7%
82.89 10/31 Lowndes Valdosta - 4.71 61.6%
82.61 10/10 North Gwinnett Peachtree Ridge - 5.57 63.6%
82.18 8/23 North Gwinnett McEachern 52 - 49 5.77 64.0%
82.13 10/24 Norcross Peachtree Ridge - 3.81 59.4%
81.90 10/17 Milton Walton - 4.43 60.9%
81.25 8/29 North Gwinnett North Cobb 29 - 36 6.58 65.9%

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Todd Holcomb

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