Sports

Maxwell Week 10 Summary: Woodward Academy powers past Sandy Creek to top AAAA

By Loren Maxwell
Oct 26, 2015

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2015 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results from this past week:

- Woodward Academy jumped to the top of the Class AAAA ratings with a 37-7 victory over previous #3 Sandy Creek.  This marks the first time Buford does not sit atop its classification in the Maxwell Ratings since the end of 2011, when they lost 27-24 in the Class AA state championship to Calhoun.

- Mays traded places with Stephenson to become this week's number one team in the hotly contested Class AAAAA.

- Parity has slowly crept into Class AAAAAA, where Colquitt County's lead in the ratings has all but evaporated over the past couple of weeks.  Now, Roswell and Grayson are nipping at the Packer's heels with teams like Archer, Peachtree Ridge, and Mill Creek not far behind.  That doesn't count talent laden McEachern at #7 and undefeated spoiler-in-waiting, #8 Camden County, who plays Colquitt County in the regular season finale.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 1.81%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,540 of 1,667 total games including 1 tie(s) (92.41%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.76 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 1.97

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Colquitt County 8-0 96.48 1 Mays 8-0 78.36
2 Roswell 8-0 95.40 2 Stephenson 7-1 76.06
3 Grayson 9-0 94.80 3 Northgate 8-0 72.63
4 Archer 7-1 90.29 4 Northside (Warner Robins) 8-0 72.62
5 Peachtree Ridge 6-2 85.10 5 Coffee 7-1 66.49
6 Mill Creek 8-0 83.70 6 Creekside 7-2 66.33
7 McEachern 7-1 80.86 7 Allatoona 8-1 66.30
8 Camden County 8-0 80.51 8 Stockbridge 8-0 65.74
9 Walton 8-1 75.08 9 Glynn Academy 6-2 64.44
10 Lowndes 5-3 75.04 10 Starr's Mill 8-0 63.91
11 Norcross 7-1 68.99 11 Ware County 6-2 62.01
12 Lee County 6-2 66.37 12 Lanier 8-0 60.80
13 Etowah 7-1 64.37 13 Jones County 7-1 60.66
14 Valdosta 5-3 63.49 14 Houston County 7-1 59.34
15 Newton 6-2 61.77 15 Alexander 7-1 58.50
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Woodward Academy 8-0 71.72 1 Calhoun 8-0 67.01
2 Cartersville 8-0 68.61 2 Blessed Trinity 8-0 65.05
3 Buford 7-1 67.90 3 Jefferson 8-0 63.98
4 Bainbridge 8-0 63.40 4 Cedar Grove 7-1 53.94
5 Sandy Creek 6-2 61.03 5 Elbert County 7-1 50.17
6 Mary Persons 8-0 59.67 6 Dodge County 8-0 47.54
7 Thomson 7-1 59.38 7 Jackson 6-2 47.33
8 St. Pius X 6-2 58.04 8 Peach County 7-2 47.11
9 Jonesboro 7-1 57.30 9 Westside (Macon) 6-2 45.36
10 Locust Grove 8-0 55.43 10 Central (Carrollton) 8-0 44.67
11 Marist 7-2 54.17 11 Spencer 5-3 43.96
12 Spalding 7-1 51.94 12 Hart County 6-2 42.61
13 Liberty County 6-3 50.94 13 Adairsville 7-1 41.48
14 Worth County 5-3 50.82 14 Callaway 7-1 40.74
15 Burke County 6-2 50.75 15 Central (Macon) 4-4 38.77
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Benedictine 8-0 68.03 1 Prince Avenue Christian 8-0 56.95
2 Greater Atlanta Christian 7-1 63.91 2 Eagle's Landing Christian 5-3 53.25
3 Fitzgerald 7-1 54.11 3 Clinch County 7-1 46.42
4 Rabun County 8-1 51.89 4 Mount Paran Christian 8-0 44.23
5 Brooks County 7-2 50.00 5 Turner County 7-1 44.21
6 Jefferson County 6-2 46.47 6 Charlton County 6-1 41.29
7 Darlington 8-0 42.07 7 Aquinas 7-1 39.88
8 Wesleyan 7-1 41.20 8 Irwin County 5-2-1 39.46
9 Lovett 5-4 40.86 9 Marion County 7-1 38.20
10 Pace Academy 6-2 40.05 10 Savannah Christian 7-1 36.80
11 Macon County 6-2 39.16 11 Emanuel County Institute 7-1 36.77
12 Lamar County 6-2 38.81 12 Lincoln County 8-0 35.80
13 Early County 5-3-1 37.84 13 Calvary Day 7-1 34.95
14 Screven County 7-1 37.53 14 Athens Academy 7-1 34.14
15 Model 8-1 36.24 15 Landmark Christian 5-3 33.93

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 8-0 96.48 55.14 23
2 [2] Roswell 5-AAAAAA 8-0 95.40 53.88 25
3 [3] Grayson 8-AAAAAA 9-0 94.80 54.32 24
4 [4] Archer 8-AAAAAA 7-1 90.29 55.34 21
5 [5] Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 6-2 85.10 57.50 13
6 [6] Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 8-0 83.70 49.06 47
7 [7] McEachern 4-AAAAAA 7-1 80.86 53.66 27
8 [8] Camden County 1-AAAAAA 8-0 80.51 56.99 15
9 [1] Mays 6-Div B-AAAAA 8-0 78.36 42.47 88
10 [2] Stephenson 6-Div A-AAAAA 7-1 76.06 32.45 189
11 [9] Walton 5-AAAAAA 8-1 75.08 50.70 38
12 [10] Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 5-3 75.04 69.20 1
13 [3] Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 8-0 72.63 31.69 196
14 [4] Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 8-0 72.62 38.86 116
15 [1] Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 8-0 71.72 37.06 138
16 [11] Norcross 7-AAAAAA 7-1 68.99 50.02 41
17 [2] Cartersville 7-AAAA 8-0 68.61 30.35 215
18 [1] Benedictine 2-AA 8-0 68.03 31.28 204
19 [3] Buford 8-AAAA 7-1 67.90 26.14 254
20 [1] Calhoun 6-AAA 8-0 67.01 25.39 263
21 [5] Coffee 3-AAAAA 7-1 66.49 46.46 57
22 [12] Lee County 1-AAAAAA 6-2 66.37 43.75 82
23 [6] Creekside 6-Div B-AAAAA 7-2 66.33 45.93 59
24 [7] Allatoona 5-AAAAA 8-1 66.30 44.58 73
25 [8] Stockbridge 4-Div B-AAAAA 8-0 65.74 35.90 151
26 [2] Blessed Trinity 4-Div B-AAA 8-0 65.05 31.59 197
27 [9] Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 6-2 64.44 52.10 33
28 [13] Etowah 5-AAAAAA 7-1 64.37 45.95 58
29 [3] Jefferson 8-AAA 8-0 63.98 34.09 171
30 [10] Starr's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 8-0 63.91 30.29 220
31 [2] Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 7-1 63.91 32.46 188
32 [14] Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 5-3 63.49 52.57 29
33 [4] Bainbridge 1-Div B-AAAA 8-0 63.40 37.40 133
34 [11] Ware County 3-AAAAA 6-2 62.01 44.12 78
35 [15] Newton 2-AAAAAA 6-2 61.77 46.84 55
36 [16] Dacula 8-AAAAAA 5-3 61.24 57.27 14
37 [5] Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 6-2 61.03 40.09 106
38 [12] Lanier 8-AAAAA 8-0 60.80 38.31 124
39 [13] Jones County 2-AAAAA 7-1 60.66 32.91 180
40 [17] North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 4-4 60.37 56.88 16
41 [6] Mary Persons 2-AAAA 8-0 59.67 40.36 103
42 [7] Thomson 3-AAAA 7-1 59.38 38.80 119
43 [14] Houston County 2-AAAAA 7-1 59.34 32.63 183
44 [18] Parkview 8-AAAAAA 5-3 59.14 55.18 22
45 [19] Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 4-4 58.80 60.03 8
46 [20] South Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 7-1 58.71 39.39 114
47 [15] Alexander 5-AAAAA 7-1 58.50 38.50 123
48 [21] Westlake 3-AAAAAA 6-2 58.27 45.27 66
49 [8] St. Pius X 6-AAAA 6-2 58.04 41.77 94
50 [22] East Coweta 3-AAAAAA 7-1 58.02 38.02 127
51 [23] North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 3-5 57.39 67.68 2
52 [16] East Paulding 5-AAAAA 6-2 57.32 46.71 56
53 [9] Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 7-1 57.30 40.65 101
54 [17] Effingham County 3-AAAAA 6-3 57.24 51.16 35
55 [24] Lambert 6-AAAAAA 7-1 57.23 42.67 87
56 [25] Hughes 3-AAAAAA 4-4 57.13 55.50 20
57 [1] Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 8-0 56.95 15.63 349
58 [26] Tift County 1-AAAAAA 5-3 56.94 40.71 100
59 [27] Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 6-3 56.62 49.31 45
60 [28] Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 4-4 56.59 58.47 11
61 [18] Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 7-1 56.56 40.80 99
62 [19] South Effingham 3-AAAAA 7-1 56.55 40.20 105
63 [29] Tucker 2-AAAAAA 5-3 56.21 32.32 191
64 [30] Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 4-4 55.62 56.73 17
65 [20] Drew 4-Div A-AAAAA 5-3 55.60 40.47 102
66 [10] Locust Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 8-0 55.43 29.95 222
67 [31] Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 4-4 54.70 53.73 26
68 [32] Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 4-4 54.45 49.80 42
69 [11] Marist 6-AAAA 7-2 54.17 34.80 160
70 [3] Fitzgerald 1-AA 7-1 54.11 36.14 147
71 [21] South Paulding 5-AAAAA 6-2 53.98 42.44 89
72 [4] Cedar Grove 4-Div A-AAA 7-1 53.94 20.89 297
73 [22] Dalton 7-Div A-AAAAA 7-2 53.75 37.92 129
74 [33] West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 5-3 53.67 45.01 70
75 [2] Eagle's Landing Christian 5-A 5-3 53.25 38.56 122
76 [23] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 6-2 53.15 31.36 202
77 [24] Carver (Atlanta) 6-Div B-AAAAA 5-3 53.10 41.97 93
78 [25] Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-4 52.88 51.12 36
79 [34] Harrison 4-AAAAAA 5-3 52.63 44.26 75
80 [35] Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 4-4 52.34 49.49 44
81 [12] Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 7-1 51.94 31.18 206
82 [4] Rabun County 8-AA 8-1 51.89 21.31 293
83 [26] Mundy's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 5-4 51.59 43.87 81
84 [27] Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 6-2 51.10 35.94 150
85 [28] Creekview 7-Div A-AAAAA 5-3 51.08 48.37 50
86 [13] Liberty County 3-AAAA 6-3 50.94 42.42 90
87 [29] Kell 7-Div B-AAAAA 6-2 50.84 38.04 126
88 [14] Worth County 1-Div B-AAAA 5-3 50.82 41.68 95
89 [15] Burke County 3-AAAA 6-2 50.75 39.99 108
90 [5] Elbert County 8-AAA 7-1 50.17 36.72 140
91 [30] Loganville 8-AAAAA 7-1 50.02 28.66 233
92 [5] Brooks County 1-AA 7-2 50.00 36.01 148
93 [36] Newnan 3-AAAAAA 6-2 49.98 38.85 117
94 [31] Paulding County 5-AAAAA 5-3 49.33 47.00 53
95 [37] Milton 5-AAAAAA 2-6 49.32 61.42 6
96 [38] South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 2-7 48.85 63.49 5
97 [39] Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 1-7 48.56 64.45 4
98 [32] Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 7-2 47.95 29.74 225
99 [33] Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 5-3 47.88 41.24 96
100 [6] Dodge County 1-Div A-AAA 8-0 47.54 22.89 279
101 [16] Eastside 4-Div A-AAAA 6-2 47.36 31.37 201
102 [7] Jackson 2-AAA 6-2 47.33 36.52 142
103 [40] Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 4-5 47.11 51.09 37
104 [8] Peach County 2-AAA 7-2 47.11 30.29 219
105 [41] Centennial 6-AAAAAA 5-3 46.87 43.95 80
106 [17] West Laurens 2-AAAA 6-2 46.81 34.05 172
107 [18] Eagle's Landing 4-Div A-AAAA 5-3 46.75 36.67 141
108 [19] Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 6-2 46.49 32.78 182
109 [6] Jefferson County 3-AA 6-2 46.47 30.31 218
110 [3] Clinch County 2-A 7-1 46.42 17.47 334
111 [20] Carrollton 5-AAAA 5-3 46.20 35.14 156
112 [34] Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 6-2 46.16 33.82 174
113 [42] Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 4-4 45.58 45.53 62
114 [9] Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 6-2 45.36 33.57 176
115 [43] Cherokee 5-AAAAAA 4-4 45.33 44.19 77
116 [44] North Paulding 4-AAAAAA 2-7 45.33 59.81 9
117 [21] Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 5-3 45.08 38.60 121
118 [22] Wayne County 3-AAAA 3-6 44.78 52.43 31
119 [10] Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 8-0 44.67 20.23 303
120 [35] Gainesville 8-AAAAA 5-3 44.37 35.79 152
121 [4] Mount Paran Christian 6-Div A-A 8-0 44.23 15.23 351
122 [5] Turner County 2-A 7-1 44.21 18.69 323
123 [23] Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 5-3 44.18 37.30 136
124 [24] Veterans 2-AAAA 4-4 44.10 45.02 69
125 [36] New Manchester 5-AAAAA 4-4 44.07 44.22 76
126 [11] Spencer 2-AAA 5-3 43.96 38.85 118
127 [25] Cairo 1-Div A-AAAA 3-4 43.70 44.08 79
128 [45] Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 2-6 43.19 60.05 7
129 [37] LaGrange 1-AAAAA 4-4 42.91 39.49 112
130 [12] Hart County 8-AAA 6-2 42.61 29.02 232
131 [7] Darlington 7-AA 8-0 42.07 16.25 342
132 [38] Brunswick 3-AAAAA 2-6 41.76 53.62 28
133 [39] Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 5-3 41.75 34.40 166
134 [13] Adairsville 6-AAA 7-1 41.48 19.44 313
135 [6] Charlton County 2-A 6-1 41.29 24.50 271
136 [26] Howard 2-AAAA 5-3 41.29 36.89 139
137 [8] Wesleyan 6-AA 7-1 41.20 24.86 269
138 [27] Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 4-4 41.20 41.00 98
139 [40] Winder-Barrow 8-AAAAA 5-3 40.87 37.27 137
140 [9] Lovett 6-AA 5-4 40.86 34.29 168
141 [28] Stephens County 8-AAAA 7-1 40.75 20.05 305
142 [14] Callaway 5-AAA 7-1 40.74 24.01 274
143 [10] Pace Academy 6-AA 6-2 40.05 30.24 221
144 [41] Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 3-5 39.92 46.86 54
145 [42] Sequoyah 7-Div A-AAAAA 2-6 39.88 50.45 39
146 [7] Aquinas 7-Div B-A 7-1 39.88 8.08 397
147 [43] M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-5 39.80 47.53 52
148 [8] Irwin County 2-A 5-2-1 39.46 28.34 239
149 [44] Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 5-3 39.36 28.43 236
150 [11] Macon County 4-AA 6-2 39.16 26.76 250
151 [45] Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 5-3 38.81 32.60 184
152 [12] Lamar County 4-AA 6-2 38.81 23.10 277
153 [15] Central (Macon) 2-AAA 4-4 38.77 35.68 153
154 [16] Laney 3-AAA 6-2 38.70 19.56 312
155 [46] Northview 6-AAAAAA 4-4 38.55 39.89 109
156 [29] Griffin 4-Div B-AAAA 4-4 38.52 34.12 170
157 [17] Cook 1-Div A-AAA 6-3 38.51 28.34 240
158 [46] Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 5-3 38.27 30.91 210
159 [9] Marion County 4-A 7-1 38.20 14.38 355
160 [47] Columbus 1-AAAAA 6-3 38.14 33.68 175
161 [18] Westminster (Atlanta) 4-Div B-AAA 4-4 37.86 33.53 177
162 [13] Early County 1-AA 5-3-1 37.84 28.36 237
163 [19] Pierce County 1-Div A-AAA 6-2 37.81 28.66 234
164 [48] Northside (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 5-2 37.72 31.58 198
165 [49] Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 3-5 37.62 45.31 65
166 [14] Screven County 3-AA 7-1 37.53 13.46 365
167 [30] Grady 6-AAAA 4-4 37.24 34.59 161
168 [47] Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 4-4 37.17 40.04 107
169 [10] Savannah Christian 3-Div A-A 7-1 36.80 13.41 366
170 [11] Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 7-1 36.77 12.64 374
171 [50] Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 3-5 36.61 37.73 131
172 [31] North Hall 8-AAAA 4-4 36.58 35.66 154
173 [15] Model 7-AA 8-1 36.24 20.89 296
174 [51] Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-4 35.85 36.30 145
175 [12] Lincoln County 7-Div B-A 8-0 35.80 9.30 395
176 [48] Marietta 4-AAAAAA 1-7 35.73 58.72 10
177 [52] Salem 8-AAAAA 4-4 35.12 32.87 181
178 [53] Statesboro 3-AAAAA 2-6 35.10 48.91 49
179 [20] Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 5-3 34.96 25.61 259
180 [21] Oconee County 8-AAA 6-2 34.96 19.94 308
181 [13] Calvary Day 3-Div A-A 7-1 34.95 10.32 387
182 [32] Westover 1-Div B-AAAA 2-5 34.64 44.49 74
183 [14] Athens Academy 8-A 7-1 34.14 -1.43 415
184 [22] Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 5-3 34.10 28.15 245
185 [49] Douglas County 3-AAAAAA 1-7 34.10 49.62 43
186 [15] Landmark Christian 5-A 5-3 33.93 24.21 273
187 [23] Appling County 1-Div A-AAA 4-4 33.72 32.47 187
188 [54] Grovetown 2-AAAAA 4-4 33.47 37.32 135
189 [16] Vidalia 2-AA 5-3 33.32 22.95 278
190 [55] Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 3-5 33.06 38.18 125
191 [56] Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 2-7 32.82 44.65 71
192 [33] Perry 2-AAAA 2-7 32.79 44.63 72
193 [57] Shaw 1-AAAAA 4-5 32.76 34.91 157
194 [58] Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 3-5 32.62 37.82 130
195 [50] Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 2-6 32.44 45.07 67
196 [51] Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 1-7 32.35 48.34 51
197 [16] Commerce 8-A 5-3 32.31 20.02 307
198 [52] South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 3-5 32.29 37.65 132
199 [34] North Oconee 8-AAAA 4-4 32.26 33.86 173
200 [35] Pickens 7-AAAA 7-1 31.94 16.79 337
201 [24] Washington County 3-AAA 3-5 31.93 34.81 159
202 [59] Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 2-6 31.87 43.55 83
203 [60] Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 5-3 31.61 25.59 260
204 [25] Pepperell 5-AAA 5-3 31.52 25.42 262
205 [17] Heard County 5-AA 5-3 31.51 23.38 276
206 [36] Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 4-4 31.46 31.10 208
207 [17] Pinecrest Academy 6-Div B-A 7-1 31.30 15.08 353
208 [37] Columbia 6-AAAA 3-5 31.22 36.37 143
209 [18] Hapeville 6-AA 4-4 30.97 28.04 246
210 [18] Stratford Academy 7-Div A-A 6-2 30.97 14.24 356
211 [19] Dublin 3-AA 6-3 30.76 22.38 282
212 [38] Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 2-6 30.58 48.93 48
213 [61] Hiram 5-AAAAA 3-5 30.53 38.74 120
214 [62] Evans 2-AAAAA 3-5 30.11 34.15 169
215 [53] North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 1-7 30.02 45.58 61
216 [39] Fayette County 5-AAAA 2-6 29.83 43.50 84
217 [20] Union County 8-AA 7-1 29.55 9.82 390
218 [40] Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 6-3 29.31 20.66 300
219 [21] Metter 3-AA 6-2 29.12 21.77 287
220 [54] Duluth 7-AAAAAA 1-7 28.97 58.34 12
221 [26] Jackson County 8-AAA 4-5 28.97 32.47 186
222 [27] Sonoraville 6-AAA 6-3 28.80 13.18 370
223 [63] Harris County 1-AAAAA 2-6 28.77 35.94 149
224 [41] Lithonia 6-AAAA 5-4 28.73 26.13 255
225 [22] Chattooga 7-AA 6-2 28.67 18.50 325
226 [42] Redan 6-AAAA 4-4 28.48 24.95 267
227 [64] Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 3-5 28.46 31.81 192
228 [19] Trion 6-Div A-A 5-3 28.45 16.51 341
229 [55] Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 3-5 28.30 34.82 158
230 [28] Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 5-3 28.27 18.23 328
231 [43] Baldwin 2-AAAA 3-5 27.71 34.47 162
232 [44] Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 2-6 27.70 39.33 115
233 [29] Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 5-3 27.63 22.53 281
234 [45] Ridgeland 7-AAAA 3-5 27.62 30.72 213
235 [30] Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 5-3 27.31 22.27 283
236 [20] Christian Heritage 6-Div A-A 5-4 27.09 25.43 261
237 [23] Dade County 7-AA 5-3 26.72 25.18 265
238 [24] Putnam County 4-AA 6-2 26.71 16.60 340
239 [25] Manchester 5-AA 5-3 26.33 21.31 294
240 [65] Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-7 26.31 45.46 63
241 [66] McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 3-5 26.13 36.17 146
242 [31] Morgan County 8-AAA 3-5 26.03 32.38 190
243 [26] Swainsboro 3-AA 4-4 25.91 28.27 243
244 [27] Bacon County 2-AA 4-4 25.88 28.32 241
245 [67] Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-8 24.91 50.09 40
246 [46] Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 3-5 24.70 30.52 214
247 [21] Brookstone 4-A 5-3 24.65 18.57 324
248 [68] Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 1-7 24.45 43.20 86
249 [56] Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 0-8 24.34 45.04 68
250 [69] North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 3-5 24.33 37.37 134
251 [28] Pelham 1-AA 4-4 24.16 30.33 217
252 [22] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-Div A-A 6-2 23.61 6.78 400
253 [32] Dawson County 7-AAA 5-3 23.48 18.89 320
254 [23] Telfair County 2-A 4-4 23.15 20.86 299
255 [33] Jordan 2-AAA 3-6 22.94 31.54 199
256 [47] Whitewater 5-AAAA 2-6 22.90 45.62 60
257 [24] Mount Pisgah Christian 6-Div B-A 4-4 22.85 24.32 272
258 [57] Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 2-6 22.74 56.22 18
259 [29] Bryan County 2-AA 4-4 22.06 22.12 286
260 [34] East Hall 7-AAA 4-4 22.04 21.60 288
261 [30] Washington-Wilkes 8-AA 3-5 22.03 29.59 226
262 [48] Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 4-4 21.92 24.90 268
263 [70] Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-5 21.79 31.74 193
264 [58] Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-8 21.66 65.78 3
265 [49] White County 8-AAAA 2-6 21.59 31.37 200
266 [31] B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 2-6 21.58 34.44 165
267 [35] Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 3-5 21.30 26.94 249
268 [25] First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 4-4 21.17 17.82 330
269 [50] Monroe Area 8-AAAA 2-6 20.88 39.56 111
270 [32] Bowdon 5-AA 3-5 20.64 25.66 258
271 [33] McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 3-5 20.48 26.37 253
272 [26] Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 5-3 20.47 15.87 344
273 [59] Pope 5-AAAAAA 0-8 20.42 55.63 19
274 [36] Franklin County 7-AAA 4-4 20.11 20.48 301
275 [51] Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 4-4 20.05 19.15 316
276 [37] Ringgold 6-AAA 4-4 19.73 17.78 331
277 [60] Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 4-4 19.44 19.83 309
278 [38] Southwest 2-AAA 3-5 18.80 28.35 238
279 [34] Greene County 8-AA 4-4 18.63 19.23 315
280 [27] Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 4-4 18.30 20.05 306
281 [35] Berrien 1-AA 2-6 18.30 32.91 179
282 [28] Dooly County 4-A 5-3 18.08 11.88 378
283 [29] Johnson County 3-Div B-A 4-4 17.83 20.42 302
284 [71] Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-7 17.69 41.17 97
285 [36] Gordon Lee 7-AA 4-4 17.65 14.04 358
286 [39] Banks County 7-AAA 5-3 17.58 13.56 364
287 [52] Troup 5-AAAA 0-8 17.43 51.92 34
288 [30] Pacelli 4-A 5-3 17.41 11.15 383
289 [37] Jeff Davis 2-AA 4-4 17.33 17.09 336
290 [31] Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 4-4 17.30 11.40 381
291 [40] Maynard Jackson 4-Div A-AAA 4-4 17.21 20.88 298
292 [38] Thomasville 1-AA 1-6 16.68 35.45 155
293 [53] Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 3-4 16.58 27.02 248
294 [41] Kendrick 2-AAA 3-5 16.50 29.22 231
295 [42] Washington 4-Div B-AAA 2-6 16.49 28.52 235
296 [43] North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 2-6 16.44 28.32 242
297 [61] Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 1-7 16.22 42.34 91
298 [44] Fannin County 7-AAA 4-4 15.54 13.80 360
299 [39] Bremen 5-AA 4-4 15.54 16.75 338
300 [54] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 2-6 15.23 29.41 229
301 [72] Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-8 15.19 52.23 32
302 [40] Holy Innocents 6-AA 2-7 15.16 34.46 164
303 [73] Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 2-6 14.79 40.23 104
304 [45] Cedartown 5-AAA 1-7 14.79 29.57 227
305 [41] Seminole County 1-AA 3-5 14.68 17.30 335
306 [46] Beach 1-Div B-AAA 5-4 14.60 13.98 359
307 [32] Athens Christian 8-A 5-4 14.38 10.37 386
308 [33] Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 3-5 14.37 18.94 319
309 [42] Long County 2-AA 3-5 14.23 19.11 317
310 [47] West Hall 7-AAA 3-5 14.12 18.70 321
311 [34] Hawkinsville 4-A 5-4 13.82 10.96 384
312 [55] Gilmer 7-AAAA 3-5 13.58 21.51 290
313 [62] Campbell 3-AAAAAA 2-6 13.51 31.33 203
314 [43] East Laurens 3-AA 4-4 13.40 18.45 326
315 [56] Chamblee 6-AAAA 2-6 13.38 28.18 244
316 [74] Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 2-6 13.07 34.47 163
317 [35] Treutlen 3-Div B-A 5-4 13.06 11.39 382
318 [63] Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 2-5 12.82 26.49 252
319 [36] Terrell County 1-A 4-4 12.69 15.72 347
320 [44] Crawford County 4-AA† 8-2 12.66 -2.74 417
321 [45] Coosa 7-AA 1-7 12.61 30.35 216
322 [46] Bleckley County 4-AA 1-7 12.40 31.19 205
323 [47] Monticello 4-AA 1-7 12.24 25.70 257
324 [75] North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-7 12.07 39.45 113
325 [64] Rockdale County 2-AAAAAA 1-7 11.91 43.41 85
326 [48] Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 3-5 11.91 21.07 295
327 [37] Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 6-2 11.53 0.57 414
328 [48] Harlem 3-AA 2-7 11.34 25.28 264
329 [76] Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 1-7 11.13 34.31 167
330 [38] Mitchell County 1-A 3-5 11.06 15.83 345
331 [49] Rockmart 5-AAA 2-6 11.02 22.15 285
332 [39] Miller County 1-A 4-4 10.88 13.61 363
333 [77] Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 0-8 10.62 45.35 64
334 [50] Towers 4-Div A-AAA 1-6 10.55 30.76 212
335 [78] Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-7 10.55 32.56 185
336 [40] Taylor County 4-A 3-5 10.31 11.68 379
337 [41] Atkinson County 2-A 2-6 10.28 24.81 270
338 [51] Lumpkin County 7-AAA 2-6 10.13 18.99 318
339 [52] Josey 3-AAA 5-4 9.95 9.95 389
340 [57] Southeast Whitfield 7-AAAA 4-5 9.94 12.16 377
341 [79] Hardaway 1-AAAAA 1-7 9.65 31.70 195
342 [53] Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 1-7 9.59 31.11 207
343 [80] Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-6 9.23 29.52 228
344 [54] North Murray 6-AAA 3-5 8.71 18.70 322
345 [42] Randolph-Clay 1-A 5-3 8.65 4.56 407
346 [55] Rutland 2-AAA 1-7 8.58 30.77 211
347 [43] Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 3-5 8.04 13.01 372
348 [44] Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 4-4 8.04 9.81 391
349 [45] North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 5-3 7.79 2.57 411
350 [81] River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-8 7.72 36.35 144
351 [56] McNair 4-Div A-AAA 2-5 7.67 20.10 304
352 [57] Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 3-6 7.60 22.70 280
353 [82] Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-8 7.38 52.53 30
354 [46] Greenville 4-A 3-5 7.03 15.26 350
355 [58] Murray County 6-AAA 4-4 6.90 6.09 404
356 [47] Walker 6-Div A-A 3-5 6.24 21.33 292
357 [48] George Walton Academy 8-A 3-5 6.07 9.72 392
358 [49] Northeast 4-AA 0-8 5.29 29.92 223
359 [49] Tattnall Square 7-Div A-A 3-5 5.02 11.51 380
360 [58] New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 6-3 4.56 -2.41 416
361 [50] Social Circle 8-AA 3-5 4.56 15.76 346
362 [50] Wilcox County 2-A 2-6 4.49 22.21 284
363 [51] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 1-7 4.35 26.56 251
364 [59] Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 0-8 3.64 37.92 128
365 [52] Chattahoochee County 5-AA 3-5 3.40 6.34 402
366 [51] Claxton 3-Div A-A 2-6 3.17 17.84 329
367 [60] Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 2-6 3.16 13.31 369
368 [52] Jenkins County 3-Div A-A 2-6 3.16 12.35 376
369 [61] Madison County 8-AAAA 1-7 3.03 25.11 266
370 [62] Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 0-8 2.62 29.27 230
371 [53] Warren County 7-Div B-A 3-6 2.58 13.64 362
372 [54] Portal 3-Div A-A 1-7 2.43 19.58 311
373 [83] Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-8 1.71 49.13 46
374 [53] Temple 5-AA 3-5 1.60 7.77 398
375 [55] Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 2-6 1.49 16.62 339
376 [56] Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 3-5 1.13 10.24 388
377 [63] Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-8 1.03 41.99 92
378 [59] Haralson County 5-AAA 1-7 0.57 14.18 357
379 [57] St. Francis 6-Div B-A 3-5 0.23 4.20 408
380 [60] Butler 3-AAA 3-5 -0.15 12.69 373
381 [58] Central (Talbotton) 4-A 3-5 -0.80 9.37 394
382 [84] Apalachee 8-AAAAA 0-8 -1.07 39.68 110
383 [59] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 3-5 -2.08 1.92 413
384 [54] Oglethorpe County 8-AA 1-8 -2.36 30.97 209
385 [61] South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 0-8 -2.59 17.64 333
386 [62] East Jackson 8-AAA 1-8 -2.91 25.92 256
387 [63] Hephzibah 3-AAA 3-5 -3.06 2.83 409
388 [64] Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 1-7 -3.16 19.27 314
389 [60] Lanier County 2-A 1-7 -3.87 21.41 291
390 [65] Westside (Augusta) 3-AAA 2-6 -3.94 13.33 368
391 [64] Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 1-7 -5.25 31.71 194
392 [61] Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 1-7 -5.72 12.43 375
393 [62] King's Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 1-7 -5.89 19.82 310
394 [65] LaFayette 7-AAAA 1-7 -5.98 17.75 332
395 [55] Armuchee 7-AA 1-8 -6.56 23.92 275
396 [66] Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-8 -7.25 33.11 178
397 [56] Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 1-7 -7.55 15.68 348
398 [85] Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 1-7 -9.75 27.94 247
399 [63] Lakeview Academy 8-A 2-6 -10.10 2.22 412
400 [66] Islands 1-Div B-AAA 1-7 -10.26 13.66 361
401 [64] Strong Rock Christian 5-A 1-7 -10.87 6.21 403
402 [65] Towns County 8-A 1-8 -11.10 18.26 327
403 [66] Baconton 1-A 2-7 -11.44 4.82 406
404 [67] Chestatee 8-AAAA 0-8 -11.44 29.78 224
405 [67] Calhoun County 1-A 0-8 -13.26 15.10 352
406 [67] Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 2-6 -13.63 2.72 410
407 [68] Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 1-7 -13.89 14.52 354
408 [69] Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 0-8 -14.32 13.08 371
409 [57] Groves 2-AA 0-8 -14.83 16.18 343
410 [68] Glenn Hills 3-AAA 0-9 -19.92 21.52 289
411 [70] Schley County 4-A 0-8 -20.35 10.72 385
412 [71] Providence Christian 8-A 0-8 -23.45 9.18 396
413 [69] Gordon Central 6-AAA 1-7 -27.02 6.97 399
414 [72] Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 0-8 -29.43 6.40 401
415 [73] Stewart County 1-A† 0-8 -31.71 9.53 393
416 [68] Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 0-5 -33.67 5.98 405
417 [70] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 0-9 -35.23 13.40 367
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAA 91.45 72.36
2 8 - AAAAAA 83.43 58.67
3 7 - AAAAAA 80.78 55.86
4 5 - AAAAAA 77.95 55.24
5 4 - AAAAAA 68.99 51.19
6 3 - AAAAA 68.71 50.24
7 6 - AAAAA 66.57 40.58
6 - Div B - AAAAA 74.91 50.43
6 - Div A - AAAAA 55.07 34.85
8 4 - AAAAA 65.96 43.48
4 - Div A - AAAAA 68.23 43.31
4 - Div B - AAAAA 63.33 43.59
9 5 - AAAA 65.77 40.19
10 5 - AAAAA 63.67 44.50
11 2 - AAAAA 63.04 38.25
12 2 - AAAAAA 62.13 36.72
13 3 - AAAAAA 61.70 42.17
14 3 - AAAA 60.51 46.06
15 6 - AAAAAA 59.86 42.43
16 2 - AAAA 59.07 42.65
17 8 - AAA 56.96 36.01
18 1 - AAAA 56.17 36.84
1 - Div B - AAAA 59.89 37.93
1 - Div A - AAAA 52.86 35.91
19 7 - AAAAA 55.69 37.68
7 - Div A - AAAAA 57.21 39.26
7 - Div B - AAAAA 54.04 36.23
20 4 - AAAA 55.49 34.07
4 - Div A - AAAA 55.89 36.42
4 - Div B - AAAA 55.04 31.29
21 8 - AAAAA 54.70 35.76
22 1 - AAAAA 53.32 35.72
23 6 - AA 52.98 32.20
24 2 - AAA 51.61 32.86
25 6 - AAAA 51.55 32.97
26 1 - AA 51.26 29.70
27 2 - A 48.21 27.07
28 8 - AAAA 47.67 26.63
29 4 - AAA 45.79 21.68
4 - Div B - AAA 51.74 28.82
4 - Div A - AAA 37.33 14.39
30 3 - AA 45.27 27.83
31 7 - AAAA 45.03 22.54
32 5 - AAA 44.78 23.96
33 5 - A 44.56 13.29
34 2 - AA 44.25 22.22
35 1 - AAA 43.47 23.98
1 - Div A - AAA 48.34 31.46
1 - Div B - AAA 34.78 12.49
36 7 - AA 41.86 23.58
37 6 - AAA 41.82 10.63
38 4 - AA 39.63 22.15
39 8 - AA 38.85 15.48
40 8 - A 38.58 11.07
41 6 - A 36.15 17.80
6 - Div A - A 41.20 26.12
6 - Div B - A 29.77 9.66
42 7 - A 34.50 16.32
7 - Div B - A 36.58 16.14
7 - Div A - A 32.90 16.42
43 3 - A 33.83 12.03
3 - Div A - A 35.35 12.96
3 - Div B - A 31.94 10.88
44 5 - AA 33.78 16.67
45 7 - AAA 31.99 17.59
46 3 - AAA 31.38 5.71
47 4 - A 31.29 12.79
48 1 - A 18.14 3.84

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
20150925 Westminster (Atlanta) Therrell 23 - 25 23.99 91.7% 0.160
20150828 Richmond Academy Westside (Augusta) 20 - 27 18.98 87.0% 0.195
20150911 Northwest Whitfield Southeast Whitfield 12 - 21 17.41 85.1% 0.208
20151023 B.E.S.T. Academy K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 26 - 27 19.19 87.2% 0.221
20150904 Bryan County Claxton 7 - 13 16.92 84.4% 0.227
20150925 Swainsboro Harlem 27 - 34 16.54 83.9% 0.228
20151009 First Presbyterian Mount de Sales 21 - 22 17.71 85.5% 0.241
20150918 Pacelli Greenville 12 - 22 12.35 77.5% 0.282
20151023 Parkview Shiloh 21 - 26 12.54 77.8% 0.298
20150828 Crawford County Central (Talbotton) 21 - 30 11.50 75.9% 0.300
20150918 Dalton Cass 8 - 23 10.03 73.2% 0.308
20150828 Druid Hills Chamblee 12 - 19 10.37 73.8% 0.326
20150904 St. Francis Lakeview Academy 7 - 27 8.36 69.8% 0.329
20150828 Putnam County Greene County 33 - 38 10.05 73.2% 0.339
20150918 Mount de Sales Strong Rock Christian 15 - 18 10.39 73.9% 0.342

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
91.52 20150911 Grayson Archer 26 - 24 6.48 65.7%
86.44 20150829 Archer Peachtree Ridge 26 - 10 7.16 67.2%
84.39 20151106 Mill Creek Peachtree Ridge - 0.57 51.4%
84.06 20151106 Colquitt County Camden County - 14.00 80.2%
82.03 20150911 Peachtree Ridge McEachern 9 - 6 6.21 65.0%
78.03 20151002 Colquitt County Lowndes 42 - 20 19.48 87.5%
76.42 20151009 Camden County Lowndes 38 - 19 7.44 67.8%
75.77 20151002 Roswell Walton 48 - 14 22.28 90.3%
75.72 20150821 Roswell Lowndes 35 - 8 22.33 90.3%
72.52 20151023 Peachtree Ridge Norcross 31 - 0 14.15 80.4%
70.33 20151030 Mill Creek Norcross - 16.68 84.1%
69.99 20151030 Camden County Lee County - 12.17 77.2%
69.41 20150904 McEachern Buford 37 - 14 14.92 81.6%
68.40 20151009 Colquitt County Lee County 54 - 17 28.14 94.3%
68.02 20151016 Lowndes Lee County 42 - 7 10.64 74.3%

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