Sports

Maxwell Week 6 Summary: Turner County tunes up Charlton County to jump in ratings

By Loren Maxwell
Sept 29, 2015

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2015 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results from this past week:

- Turner County blew past the previous top Class A public school, Charlton County, by a score of 44-0 to jump nearly 10 points in the ratings.  First year coach Ben Simmons has guided the Rebels to a 5-0 start, which is only one win away from tying their most in a season over the past seven years.

- Washington County, the top team in Class AAA entering the season, notched their first win of the season with a 54-0 victory over winless Glenn Hills.  After losing only state championship games for the last two years, the Golden Hawks have four losses on the season while their rating is more than five touchdowns lower than their preseason rating.

- Roswell should be keeping an eye on two different games this weekend to improve their rating.  The first is their 5-AAAAAA showdown with undefeated Walton but they should also be watching the scoreboard for Colquitt County's game with Lowndes.  If the Hornets are victorious and the Vikings can upend the Packers, look for Roswell to enjoy a significant boost.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 20.86%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 886 of 955 total games including 1 tie(s) (92.83%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.57 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 0.81

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Colquitt County 5-0 99.74 1 Northside (Warner Robins) 5-0 79.11
2 Grayson 5-0 93.75 2 Ware County 5-0 78.63
3 Mill Creek 5-0 89.95 3 Stephenson 3-1 77.47
4 Archer 3-1 89.44 4 Mays 5-0 75.80
5 McEachern 3-1 88.74 5 Allatoona 4-1 73.36
6 Peachtree Ridge 3-2 83.40 6 Creekside 4-1 72.48
7 Roswell 4-0 82.79 7 Coffee 4-1 72.03
8 Norcross 5-0 81.75 8 Houston County 5-0 71.81
9 Walton 5-0 80.28 9 Stockbridge 4-0 71.44
10 Tucker 3-2 78.00 10 Gainesville 3-1 69.39
11 Lowndes 4-1 77.22 11 South Paulding 3-1 69.13
12 Valdosta 4-1 76.44 12 East Paulding 3-1 68.42
13 Dacula 4-1 75.82 13 Northgate 5-0 67.22
14 Camden County 5-0 75.63 14 Lanier 5-0 64.84
15 Tift County 5-0 74.32 15 Glynn Academy 3-2 62.28
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 3-1 86.01 1 Calhoun 5-0 76.39
2 Cartersville 4-0 77.09 2 Blessed Trinity 5-0 75.62
3 Sandy Creek 4-1 76.03 3 Jefferson 5-0 67.37
4 Woodward Academy 5-0 73.64 4 Cedar Grove 4-1 64.05
5 Marist 4-1 70.96 5 Elbert County 5-0 60.80
6 St. Pius X 2-2 66.10 6 Westside (Macon) 5-0 60.65
7 Bainbridge 5-0 65.22 7 Peach County 4-1 54.42
8 Mary Persons 5-0 62.78 8 Central (Carrollton) 5-0 54.18
9 Jonesboro 5-1 62.51 9 Callaway 4-1 52.61
10 Thomson 4-0 60.81 10 Dodge County 5-0 50.81
11 Burke County 4-1 58.27 11 Pierce County 3-1 50.39
12 Spalding 5-0 57.40 12 Adairsville 4-0 50.23
13 West Laurens 4-1 57.24 13 Hart County 3-2 49.16
14 Eastside 4-1 56.37 14 Laney 2-2 46.91
15 Carrollton 2-3 55.45 15 Cook 3-2 46.37
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Benedictine 4-0 76.18 1 Eagle's Landing Christian 3-3 61.49
2 Greater Atlanta Christian 4-1 73.58 2 Mount Paran Christian 5-0 55.74
3 Fitzgerald 5-0 68.57 3 Prince Avenue Christian 5-0 52.43
4 Wesleyan 5-0 54.23 4 Irwin County 3-1-1 50.26
5 Brooks County 3-2 53.29 5 Turner County 5-0 49.57
6 Rabun County 4-1 51.32 6 Calvary Day 4-0 49.24
7 Pace Academy 5-1 50.30 7 Clinch County 4-1 48.22
8 Macon County 3-2 49.72 8 Marion County 3-1 46.06
9 Lovett 2-4 47.63 9 Lincoln County 5-0 46.03
10 Lamar County 3-2 47.12 10 Charlton County 3-1 45.80
11 Jefferson County 3-2 46.48 11 Aquinas 4-1 45.61
12 Darlington 5-0 45.37 12 Landmark Christian 3-2 43.84
13 Early County 2-2-1 45.01 13 Savannah Christian 4-1 41.38
14 Thomasville 1-3 43.16 14 Emanuel County Institute 4-1 40.73
15 Dublin 4-1 42.57 15 Pinecrest Academy 3-1 37.10

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 5-0 99.74 43.91 164
2 [2] Grayson 8-AAAAAA 5-0 93.75 68.18 14
3 [3] Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 5-0 89.95 63.54 25
4 [4] Archer 8-AAAAAA 3-1 89.44 76.72 4
5 [5] McEachern 4-AAAAAA 3-1 88.74 77.21 3
6 [1] Buford 8-AAAA 3-1 86.01 51.32 103
7 [6] Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 3-2 83.40 67.18 17
8 [7] Roswell 5-AAAAAA 4-0 82.79 63.26 27
9 [8] Norcross 7-AAAAAA 5-0 81.75 59.48 39
10 [9] Walton 5-AAAAAA 5-0 80.28 63.46 26
11 [1] Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 5-0 79.11 50.53 108
12 [2] Ware County 3-AAAAA 5-0 78.63 41.06 194
13 [10] Tucker 2-AAAAAA 3-2 78.00 51.55 99
14 [3] Stephenson 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-1 77.47 50.58 107
15 [11] Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 4-1 77.22 60.88 34
16 [2] Cartersville 7-AAAA 4-0 77.09 55.39 61
17 [12] Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 4-1 76.44 49.03 115
18 [1] Calhoun 6-AAA 5-0 76.39 34.45 261
19 [1] Benedictine 2-AA 4-0 76.18 46.89 137
20 [3] Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 4-1 76.03 55.31 63
21 [13] Dacula 8-AAAAAA 4-1 75.82 61.81 30
22 [4] Mays 6-Div B-AAAAA 5-0 75.80 49.64 114
23 [14] Camden County 1-AAAAAA 5-0 75.63 51.92 97
24 [2] Blessed Trinity 4-Div B-AAA 5-0 75.62 44.65 156
25 [15] Tift County 1-AAAAAA 5-0 74.32 38.60 223
26 [4] Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 5-0 73.64 48.94 116
27 [2] Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 4-1 73.58 52.91 85
28 [16] Lee County 1-AAAAAA 5-0 73.50 34.18 264
29 [5] Allatoona 5-AAAAA 4-1 73.36 55.71 59
30 [6] Creekside 6-Div B-AAAAA 4-1 72.48 58.34 45
31 [17] North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 2-3 72.44 77.73 1
32 [7] Coffee 3-AAAAA 4-1 72.03 55.65 60
33 [8] Houston County 2-AAAAA 5-0 71.81 45.89 146
34 [18] Etowah 5-AAAAAA 4-1 71.68 58.43 43
35 [9] Stockbridge 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-0 71.44 35.63 249
36 [19] Parkview 8-AAAAAA 3-2 71.43 76.15 5
37 [5] Marist 6-AAAA 4-1 70.96 38.39 225
38 [20] North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 2-3 70.66 68.41 13
39 [21] East Coweta 3-AAAAAA 4-0 69.56 48.63 120
40 [10] Gainesville 8-AAAAA 3-1 69.39 43.12 172
41 [11] South Paulding 5-AAAAA 3-1 69.13 60.35 35
42 [3] Fitzgerald 1-AA 5-0 68.57 47.60 132
43 [12] East Paulding 5-AAAAA 3-1 68.42 64.47 23
44 [22] Newton 2-AAAAAA 4-1 67.47 54.73 69
45 [3] Jefferson 8-AAA 5-0 67.37 43.58 169
46 [13] Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 5-0 67.22 39.95 209
47 [23] Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 3-1 66.93 60.09 38
48 [24] Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 2-3 66.92 63.81 24
49 [25] Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 3-2 66.16 60.34 36
50 [6] St. Pius X 6-AAAA 2-2 66.10 58.57 41
51 [26] Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 3-2 65.89 61.34 32
52 [27] Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 2-3 65.60 69.88 10
53 [7] Bainbridge 1-Div B-AAAA 5-0 65.22 47.73 128
54 [14] Lanier 8-AAAAA 5-0 64.84 48.18 124
55 [28] Hughes 3-AAAAAA 1-3 64.81 73.74 6
56 [29] Newnan 3-AAAAAA 3-1 64.38 58.77 40
57 [4] Cedar Grove 4-Div A-AAA 4-1 64.05 37.07 239
58 [30] Westlake 3-AAAAAA 3-1 63.97 48.13 125
59 [31] Harrison 4-AAAAAA 3-2 63.90 56.27 58
60 [32] Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 2-3 63.87 69.49 12
61 [8] Mary Persons 2-AAAA 5-0 62.78 45.94 145
62 [9] Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 5-1 62.51 50.66 105
63 [15] Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 3-2 62.28 56.74 53
64 [16] Alexander 5-AAAAA 4-0 62.19 40.04 207
65 [33] Milton 5-AAAAAA 1-4 62.17 70.81 9
66 [17] Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 4-1 62.12 48.09 126
67 [18] Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 4-1 61.95 38.27 228
68 [19] Jones County 2-AAAAA 4-1 61.73 37.26 238
69 [34] Lambert 6-AAAAAA 4-1 61.69 52.41 89
70 [1] Eagle's Landing Christian 5-A 3-3 61.49 62.76 29
71 [35] South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 1-4 61.32 71.20 8
72 [20] Creekview 7-Div A-AAAAA 3-2 61.28 62.78 28
73 [36] South Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 5-0 61.18 39.63 211
74 [10] Thomson 3-AAAA 4-0 60.81 43.78 166
75 [5] Elbert County 8-AAA 5-0 60.80 44.85 155
76 [6] Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 5-0 60.65 40.03 208
77 [37] Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 3-2 60.21 52.77 87
78 [21] Carver (Atlanta) 6-Div B-AAAAA 4-1 59.72 42.66 176
79 [38] Cherokee 5-AAAAAA 3-1 59.34 43.13 171
80 [39] North Paulding 4-AAAAAA 1-4 59.28 71.70 7
81 [22] Mundy's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 3-2 58.53 53.32 81
82 [40] Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 1-4 58.34 67.38 16
83 [11] Burke County 3-AAAA 4-1 58.27 47.48 133
84 [23] Kell 7-Div B-AAAAA 3-2 58.04 52.06 95
85 [41] West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 3-2 57.63 48.51 122
86 [24] Drew 4-Div A-AAAAA 3-1 57.61 36.65 243
87 [12] Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 5-0 57.40 36.56 244
88 [13] West Laurens 2-AAAA 4-1 57.24 43.87 165
89 [42] Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 3-2 57.18 49.97 113
90 [25] Dalton 7-Div A-AAAAA 3-2 57.16 50.15 111
91 [26] Starr's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 4-0 56.95 39.55 213
92 [14] Eastside 4-Div A-AAAA 4-1 56.37 42.87 174
93 [27] South Effingham 3-AAAAA 4-0 56.05 43.64 167
94 [28] New Manchester 5-AAAAA 3-1 55.98 50.06 112
95 [2] Mount Paran Christian 6-Div A-A 5-0 55.74 24.14 347
96 [29] Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 3-2 55.65 54.09 75
97 [30] Loganville 8-AAAAA 4-1 55.47 45.85 147
98 [15] Carrollton 5-AAAA 2-3 55.45 54.93 67
99 [43] Marietta 4-AAAAAA 1-4 55.35 66.94 18
100 [16] Worth County 1-Div B-AAAA 2-2 55.17 58.15 48
101 [17] Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 2-2 55.17 52.58 88
102 [31] Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 2-2 54.78 57.17 52
103 [18] North Oconee 8-AAAA 2-2 54.45 50.90 104
104 [7] Peach County 2-AAA 4-1 54.42 34.42 262
105 [32] Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 3-1 54.27 44.14 162
106 [4] Wesleyan 6-AA 5-0 54.23 29.08 312
107 [8] Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 5-0 54.18 33.27 275
108 [33] Effingham County 3-AAAAA 3-2 54.01 56.28 57
109 [34] Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-1 53.76 34.96 257
110 [44] Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 0-4 53.61 68.13 15
111 [19] Liberty County 3-AAAA 4-2 53.50 47.25 135
112 [35] LaGrange 1-AAAAA 3-2 53.40 46.94 136
113 [5] Brooks County 1-AA 3-2 53.29 47.69 130
114 [36] Paulding County 5-AAAAA 3-1 53.28 48.69 119
115 [9] Callaway 5-AAA 4-1 52.61 42.33 181
116 [3] Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 5-0 52.43 19.77 379
117 [20] Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 4-0 52.42 29.47 309
118 [21] Eagle's Landing 4-Div A-AAAA 3-2 52.35 48.93 117
119 [37] Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 2-3 52.27 55.31 64
120 [38] Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-1 52.26 35.28 254
121 [22] Griffin 4-Div B-AAAA 2-3 51.82 47.92 127
122 [23] Wayne County 3-AAAA 2-4 51.54 54.82 68
123 [24] Stephens County 8-AAAA 3-1 51.40 43.12 173
124 [6] Rabun County 8-AA 4-1 51.32 35.07 255
125 [39] M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-3 51.18 65.46 20
126 [40] Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-3 50.93 54.42 71
127 [45] Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 1-4 50.84 69.66 11
128 [10] Dodge County 1-Div A-AAA 5-0 50.81 28.63 317
129 [25] Cairo 1-Div A-AAAA 1-3 50.71 54.12 74
130 [11] Pierce County 1-Div A-AAA 3-1 50.39 41.08 193
131 [7] Pace Academy 6-AA 5-1 50.30 39.37 215
132 [4] Irwin County 2-A 3-1-1 50.26 43.14 170
133 [12] Adairsville 6-AAA 4-0 50.23 33.69 271
134 [46] Centennial 6-AAAAAA 2-3 49.99 57.22 51
135 [47] South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 1-3 49.87 58.16 47
136 [26] Whitewater 5-AAAA 1-3 49.85 56.65 55
137 [27] Locust Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 5-0 49.84 31.62 295
138 [8] Macon County 4-AA 3-2 49.72 45.48 148
139 [28] Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 3-2 49.67 45.26 152
140 [41] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-1 49.60 34.50 260
141 [29] Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 1-3 49.59 66.19 19
142 [5] Turner County 2-A 5-0 49.57 27.27 326
143 [6] Calvary Day 3-Div A-A 4-0 49.24 21.82 363
144 [13] Hart County 8-AAA 3-2 49.16 41.97 188
145 [42] Salem 8-AAAAA 4-1 49.13 36.17 246
146 [43] Winder-Barrow 8-AAAAA 2-3 48.70 55.07 65
147 [44] Harris County 1-AAAAA 1-3 48.51 50.19 110
148 [30] Baldwin 2-AAAA 3-2 48.40 41.80 189
149 [48] Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 2-3 48.29 55.06 66
150 [7] Clinch County 2-A 4-1 48.22 31.64 294
151 [31] Pickens 7-AAAA 4-0 48.03 32.54 281
152 [32] Howard 2-AAAA 4-1 47.78 40.27 202
153 [45] Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 3-2 47.69 39.12 216
154 [9] Lovett 6-AA 2-4 47.63 48.35 123
155 [46] Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-3 47.61 58.19 46
156 [47] Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-1 47.42 38.32 227
157 [33] Veterans 2-AAAA 1-3 47.27 61.35 31
158 [10] Lamar County 4-AA 3-2 47.12 38.73 222
159 [14] Laney 3-AAA 2-2 46.91 41.62 190
160 [49] Northview 6-AAAAAA 3-2 46.80 42.64 177
161 [34] Columbia 6-AAAA 3-2 46.63 39.10 217
162 [11] Jefferson County 3-AA 3-2 46.48 40.23 204
163 [48] Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 3-1 46.46 34.09 266
164 [15] Cook 1-Div A-AAA 3-2 46.37 38.90 218
165 [16] Washington County 3-AAA 1-4 46.07 52.05 96
166 [8] Marion County 4-A 3-1 46.06 24.53 343
167 [9] Lincoln County 7-Div B-A 5-0 46.03 25.57 335
168 [10] Charlton County 2-A 3-1 45.80 35.99 247
169 [50] Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 1-3 45.72 52.31 90
170 [11] Aquinas 7-Div B-A 4-1 45.61 27.02 328
171 [12] Darlington 7-AA 5-0 45.37 24.11 348
172 [51] Douglas County 3-AAAAAA 0-4 45.34 57.38 50
173 [49] Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 0-5 45.32 60.91 33
174 [50] Brunswick 3-AAAAA 1-4 45.25 53.12 82
175 [17] Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 4-1 45.12 33.21 276
176 [13] Early County 1-AA 2-2-1 45.01 45.41 150
177 [51] Statesboro 3-AAAAA 1-3 44.83 53.01 84
178 [52] Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 2-3 44.72 44.05 163
179 [53] Sequoyah 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-4 44.56 60.22 37
180 [18] Jackson 2-AAA 3-1 44.45 27.70 323
181 [19] Pepperell 5-AAA 4-1 43.94 34.76 259
182 [12] Landmark Christian 5-A 3-2 43.84 36.86 242
183 [20] Westminster (Atlanta) 4-Div B-AAA 2-3 43.77 41.45 191
184 [35] Grady 6-AAAA 2-3 43.72 45.97 144
185 [54] Columbus 1-AAAAA 4-1 43.55 37.70 235
186 [55] Hiram 5-AAAAA 2-2 43.49 42.43 180
187 [21] Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 2-2 43.44 47.37 134
188 [14] Thomasville 1-AA 1-3 43.16 53.33 80
189 [22] Central (Macon) 2-AAA 3-2 43.12 38.04 230
190 [52] Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-5 42.73 77.64 2
191 [15] Dublin 3-AA 4-1 42.57 31.76 290
192 [23] Jackson County 8-AAA 3-2 42.23 42.00 187
193 [56] Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-3 42.17 46.42 140
194 [53] Duluth 7-AAAAAA 1-4 42.17 64.61 22
195 [16] Bacon County 2-AA 3-2 42.16 40.72 197
196 [36] Westover 1-Div B-AAAA 0-4 42.07 58.42 44
197 [17] Model 7-AA 5-0 42.00 30.46 303
198 [24] Appling County 1-Div A-AAA 3-2 41.90 33.49 272
199 [37] Lithonia 6-AAAA 3-2 41.52 37.95 231
200 [13] Savannah Christian 3-Div A-A 4-1 41.38 21.95 362
201 [38] Perry 2-AAAA 1-4 41.16 54.03 76
202 [57] Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 2-2 40.98 45.27 151
203 [58] Grovetown 2-AAAAA 3-2 40.97 42.12 185
204 [39] North Hall 8-AAAA 1-3 40.79 51.80 98
205 [14] Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 4-1 40.73 22.65 358
206 [40] Monroe Area 8-AAAA 2-2 40.46 45.06 153
207 [59] Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-2 40.03 37.53 236
208 [54] Pope 5-AAAAAA 0-4 39.37 58.02 49
209 [60] Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-2 39.29 37.94 232
210 [61] Evans 2-AAAAA 2-3 39.27 40.47 200
211 [18] Heard County 5-AA 2-3 39.23 42.53 178
212 [41] White County 8-AAAA 0-4 39.01 53.73 78
213 [55] Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 2-2 38.66 38.20 229
214 [42] Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 2-3 38.49 39.65 210
215 [19] Hapeville 6-AA 4-1 38.43 27.16 327
216 [43] Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 1-4 38.35 64.78 21
217 [56] North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 1-4 38.25 53.07 83
218 [20] Vidalia 2-AA 3-2 37.52 24.60 341
219 [15] Pinecrest Academy 6-Div B-A 3-1 37.10 30.94 300
220 [44] Troup 5-AAAA 0-5 36.86 56.52 56
221 [62] Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 0-4 36.57 52.16 93
222 [25] Oconee County 8-AAA 4-1 36.56 18.44 383
223 [45] Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 3-2 36.51 31.65 293
224 [16] Athens Academy 8-A 4-0 36.43 12.64 401
225 [21] Union County 8-AA 5-0 36.22 15.07 393
226 [63] Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 1-3 36.21 47.72 129
227 [26] Morgan County 8-AAA 2-2 36.13 33.48 273
228 [64] Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-2 36.10 37.41 237
229 [17] Commerce 8-A 3-2 35.92 29.47 310
230 [27] Ringgold 6-AAA 2-3 35.82 38.51 224
231 [46] Redan 6-AAAA 2-3 35.74 41.42 192
232 [22] Metter 3-AA 4-1 35.72 29.04 313
233 [47] Fayette County 5-AAAA 1-4 35.66 46.40 141
234 [48] Ridgeland 7-AAAA 1-3 35.53 40.52 198
235 [65] Shaw 1-AAAAA 2-3 35.51 37.88 233
236 [23] Bowdon 5-AA 1-3 35.28 42.16 184
237 [18] Stratford Academy 7-Div A-A 2-2 35.22 31.69 291
238 [24] B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 1-4 35.21 51.53 100
239 [19] Pacelli 4-A 4-1 35.15 23.91 350
240 [28] Dawson County 7-AAA 2-2 35.10 35.58 250
241 [20] Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 3-1 35.05 29.68 307
242 [29] Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 3-2 34.72 24.84 340
243 [49] Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 2-3 34.71 39.53 214
244 [21] Mount Pisgah Christian 6-Div B-A 1-3 34.61 44.43 160
245 [50] Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 3-1 34.59 25.07 338
246 [30] East Hall 7-AAA 1-3 34.56 43.59 168
247 [25] Chattooga 7-AA 4-1 34.53 24.29 345
248 [22] Brookstone 4-A 2-2 34.49 35.01 256
249 [57] Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 0-5 34.05 53.90 77
250 [26] Screven County 3-AA 4-1 34.02 21.31 370
251 [23] Christian Heritage 6-Div A-A 3-2 33.78 32.50 282
252 [66] McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 2-3 33.77 37.84 234
253 [67] Northside (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 2-2 33.69 35.67 248
254 [27] Putnam County 4-AA 5-1 33.45 23.69 353
255 [58] Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 3-2 33.20 31.78 289
256 [31] Sonoraville 6-AAA 3-2 32.99 26.40 330
257 [32] West Hall 7-AAA 2-3 32.91 33.86 270
258 [59] Rockdale County 2-AAAAAA 1-4 32.90 51.49 101
259 [51] Gilmer 7-AAAA 1-3 32.77 40.32 201
260 [68] Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-5 32.67 58.46 42
261 [24] First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 2-2 32.56 30.50 302
262 [52] Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 3-2 32.43 25.51 336
263 [33] Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 3-2 32.42 28.36 320
264 [60] Campbell 3-AAAAAA 2-2 32.40 26.27 333
265 [61] Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 2-3 32.29 56.73 54
266 [28] Washington-Wilkes 8-AA 0-4 32.27 46.78 138
267 [34] Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 1-3 32.00 46.01 143
268 [29] Berrien 1-AA 1-3 31.99 44.48 159
269 [25] Trion 6-Div A-A 4-1 31.88 15.45 390
270 [30] Coosa 7-AA 1-3 31.79 45.02 154
271 [31] Bleckley County 4-AA 1-4 31.56 42.19 183
272 [32] Manchester 5-AA 3-2 31.54 27.46 324
273 [33] Pelham 1-AA 3-2 31.39 30.87 301
274 [35] Spencer 2-AAA 1-3 31.26 48.58 121
275 [26] Greenville 4-A 3-1 31.12 18.81 381
276 [34] Dade County 7-AA 3-2 30.90 36.88 241
277 [69] Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 0-4 30.80 54.50 70
278 [27] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-Div A-A 4-1 30.57 9.20 407
279 [53] Chamblee 6-AAAA 2-2 30.44 31.05 299
280 [28] Dooly County 4-A 2-3 30.38 32.41 283
281 [54] Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 3-2 30.00 28.87 315
282 [70] Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 0-5 29.83 50.64 106
283 [71] Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-4 29.53 54.20 73
284 [36] Washington 4-Div B-AAA 1-4 29.52 38.77 220
285 [29] Hawkinsville 4-A 3-2 29.40 22.72 357
286 [37] North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 1-4 29.32 42.11 186
287 [38] Maynard Jackson 4-Div A-AAA 1-4 29.16 46.75 139
288 [72] Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 1-4 29.10 47.67 131
289 [35] Holy Innocents 6-AA 1-4 28.85 44.19 161
290 [73] Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-3 28.69 42.78 175
291 [39] Lumpkin County 7-AAA 2-3 28.67 31.16 298
292 [30] Telfair County 2-A 2-3 28.42 31.68 292
293 [40] Franklin County 7-AAA 2-2 28.37 32.56 280
294 [36] Seminole County 1-AA 1-3 28.17 29.66 308
295 [31] Johnson County 3-Div B-A 2-3 27.78 34.05 267
296 [74] Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-2 27.72 31.48 296
297 [37] Greene County 8-AA 3-2 27.67 27.46 325
298 [38] Swainsboro 3-AA 2-3 27.20 34.10 265
299 [39] Bremen 5-AA 2-3 26.77 31.44 297
300 [40] McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 1-4 26.72 40.85 196
301 [75] Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 0-4 26.22 53.65 79
302 [41] Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 3-2 25.67 26.37 331
303 [42] Southwest 2-AAA 2-2 25.57 34.90 258
304 [41] Jeff Davis 2-AA 4-1 25.40 14.10 395
305 [43] Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 3-2 25.38 24.56 342
306 [62] Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 0-5 25.06 55.35 62
307 [44] Kendrick 2-AAA 2-3 25.03 33.34 274
308 [76] Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 1-4 24.93 52.16 92
309 [77] Apalachee 8-AAAAA 0-5 24.88 51.37 102
310 [78] Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-4 24.87 44.53 158
311 [45] Towers 4-Div A-AAA 1-4 24.84 40.19 206
312 [32] Tattnall Square 7-Div A-A 3-1 24.71 12.37 402
313 [55] Southeast Whitfield 7-AAAA 3-2 24.23 13.34 399
314 [63] Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 0-5 24.12 52.26 91
315 [33] Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 2-3 24.02 29.32 311
316 [46] Rutland 2-AAA 1-4 23.82 42.46 179
317 [47] Cedartown 5-AAA 0-5 23.80 37.02 240
318 [34] Athens Christian 8-A 1-4 23.67 35.47 251
319 [48] Fannin County 7-AAA 2-2 23.58 20.77 375
320 [42] Long County 2-AA 1-3 23.11 34.00 268
321 [56] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 1-4 22.71 38.35 226
322 [35] Miller County 1-A 2-3 22.68 31.93 287
323 [36] Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 2-2 22.63 19.52 380
324 [79] North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-3 22.63 40.88 195
325 [57] Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 3-1 22.53 14.75 394
326 [49] Rockmart 5-AAA 1-3 22.53 27.85 322
327 [43] East Laurens 3-AA 4-0 22.16 8.64 409
328 [58] Chestatee 8-AAAA 0-4 21.96 44.53 157
329 [80] North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-3 21.83 40.24 203
330 [59] Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 0-5 21.76 48.72 118
331 [37] Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 2-3 21.63 26.30 332
332 [50] Banks County 7-AAA 3-2 21.40 18.31 385
333 [64] Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 0-4 21.36 46.09 142
334 [51] Beach 1-Div B-AAA 3-2 21.09 21.34 368
335 [60] Madison County 8-AAAA 0-4 20.91 40.49 199
336 [38] Claxton 3-Div A-A 1-3 20.62 28.52 319
337 [81] Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-5 20.53 52.77 86
338 [39] Treutlen 3-Div B-A 3-2 20.52 21.32 369
339 [40] Walker 6-Div A-A 3-2 20.50 22.86 355
340 [44] Monticello 4-AA 0-5 20.13 36.33 245
341 [45] Gordon Lee 7-AA 2-3 19.37 24.22 346
342 [61] Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 2-4 19.36 26.14 334
343 [41] Atkinson County 2-A 2-3 19.35 21.65 365
344 [52] Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 1-3 19.27 28.60 318
345 [42] Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 1-4 19.27 32.16 284
346 [46] Bryan County 2-AA 1-4 19.19 30.31 305
347 [53] Westside (Augusta) 3-AAA 1-4 19.18 33.03 277
348 [43] George Walton Academy 8-A 2-3 18.73 22.79 356
349 [44] Wilcox County 2-A 2-3 18.67 22.21 361
350 [54] Jordan 2-AAA 1-4 18.64 35.44 252
351 [45] Taylor County 4-A 1-3 18.33 21.66 364
352 [46] Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 1-3 18.26 33.87 269
353 [47] Mitchell County 1-A 1-4 18.25 31.86 288
354 [48] Terrell County 1-A 1-4 18.07 42.28 182
355 [55] North Murray 6-AAA 1-4 17.76 32.04 285
356 [56] Josey 3-AAA 3-2 17.64 18.43 384
357 [62] New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 4-1 17.61 8.13 412
358 [82] River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-5 16.94 34.40 263
359 [49] Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 1-3 16.72 24.90 339
360 [57] McNair 4-Div A-AAA 1-4 16.37 28.95 314
361 [50] Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 1-3 16.19 23.82 351
362 [47] Northeast 4-AA 0-5 15.91 32.94 278
363 [58] Butler 3-AAA 2-2 15.82 21.05 373
364 [83] Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-5 15.22 45.47 149
365 [48] Harlem 3-AA 2-3 14.92 21.23 372
366 [51] Randolph-Clay 1-A 3-2 14.13 17.69 387
367 [52] King's Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 0-4 14.01 38.73 221
368 [84] Hardaway 1-AAAAA 1-4 13.75 38.84 219
369 [53] Warren County 7-Div B-A 2-3 13.49 21.31 371
370 [59] Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 0-4 13.35 32.76 279
371 [54] Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 3-2 12.98 13.05 400
372 [60] Glenn Hills 3-AAA 0-5 12.94 52.09 94
373 [55] Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 2-2 12.12 19.79 378
374 [61] Murray County 6-AAA 2-2 11.68 15.39 391
375 [62] Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 1-4 11.53 35.39 253
376 [63] Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 0-5 11.28 28.68 316
377 [63] South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 0-5 11.06 29.85 306
378 [56] Strong Rock Christian 5-A 1-3 10.70 18.23 386
379 [64] LaFayette 7-AAAA 1-3 10.43 21.63 366
380 [57] Central (Talbotton) 4-A 2-3 10.08 21.04 374
381 [49] Social Circle 8-AA 2-2 9.84 22.39 360
382 [58] Portal 3-Div A-A 0-4 9.81 26.65 329
383 [59] Jenkins County 3-Div A-A 1-3 9.34 13.65 397
384 [50] Temple 5-AA 3-2 9.21 7.25 414
385 [65] Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-5 8.78 50.24 109
386 [51] Crawford County 4-AA† 4-2 8.00 0.71 416
387 [64] Haralson County 5-AAA 0-4 7.48 24.44 344
388 [52] Chattahoochee County 5-AA 1-3 6.49 9.56 406
389 [53] Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 0-4 6.45 32.02 286
390 [65] Hephzibah 3-AAA 1-3 5.71 13.96 396
391 [66] East Jackson 8-AAA 1-4 4.56 20.09 376
392 [60] Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 1-4 3.74 21.37 367
393 [61] St. Francis 6-Div B-A 1-3 3.61 8.47 410
394 [66] Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-5 3.47 54.27 72
395 [62] North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 2-2 2.90 8.40 411
396 [54] Oglethorpe County 8-AA 0-5 2.18 40.20 205
397 [67] Islands 1-Div B-AAA 1-3 1.81 25.26 337
398 [67] Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 1-4 1.58 16.34 389
399 [63] Lanier County 2-A 0-4 1.43 22.48 359
400 [55] Armuchee 7-AA 1-4 0.91 23.68 354
401 [56] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 0-5 0.68 30.34 304
402 [64] Calhoun County 1-A 0-5 0.44 28.15 321
403 [57] Groves 2-AA 0-5 -1.20 15.28 392
404 [65] Lakeview Academy 8-A 2-2 -1.36 -4.58 417
405 [66] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 2-3 -1.40 1.97 415
406 [67] Schley County 4-A 0-4 -1.51 24.03 349
407 [68] Baconton 1-A 1-4 -2.32 16.76 388
408 [85] Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 0-5 -2.50 39.58 212
409 [68] Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 1-3 -4.00 11.99 404
410 [69] Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 0-5 -4.22 20.01 377
411 [69] Gordon Central 6-AAA 1-4 -4.51 23.69 352
412 [70] Towns County 8-A 1-4 -5.12 12.33 403
413 [70] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 0-5 -11.33 10.66 405
414 [71] Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 0-5 -15.13 13.56 398
415 [72] Stewart County 1-A† 0-5 -20.64 18.48 382
416 [73] Providence Christian 8-A 0-4 -21.98 9.05 408
417 [68] Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 0-3 -24.47 7.67 413
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAA 95.50 78.60
2 8 - AAAAAA 88.71 68.73
3 7 - AAAAAA 88.04 66.66
4 5 - AAAAAA 82.43 65.06
5 4 - AAAAAA 79.77 63.65
6 5 - AAAA 75.44 54.02
7 2 - AAAAAA 73.28 48.22
8 3 - AAAAA 73.19 53.36
9 5 - AAAAA 72.79 53.91
10 3 - AAAAAA 72.10 54.12
11 6 - AAAAA 71.74 51.50
6 - Div B - AAAAA 78.01 58.28
6 - Div A - AAAAA 64.27 46.65
12 2 - AAAAA 71.36 48.11
13 4 - AAAAA 66.35 46.64
4 - Div A - AAAAA 67.05 46.28
4 - Div B - AAAAA 65.44 46.92
14 2 - AAAA 66.14 50.92
15 6 - AAAAAA 65.95 48.91
16 8 - AAAAA 65.48 46.61
17 3 - AAAA 64.90 50.83
18 8 - AAA 64.14 43.92
19 7 - AAAAA 63.89 46.20
7 - Div A - AAAAA 65.17 47.46
7 - Div B - AAAAA 62.55 44.99
20 6 - AA 63.04 42.31
21 6 - AAAA 62.73 44.06
22 8 - AAAA 62.56 42.51
23 1 - AAAA 62.29 44.12
1 - Div B - AAAA 64.18 44.80
1 - Div A - AAAA 60.52 43.47
24 1 - AA 61.57 42.16
25 4 - AAAA 60.98 41.23
4 - Div B - AAAA 62.55 40.95
4 - Div A - AAAA 59.49 41.47
26 1 - AAAAA 60.57 42.31
27 7 - AAAA 56.69 34.92
28 4 - AAA 56.05 32.49
4 - Div B - AAA 61.59 38.34
4 - Div A - AAA 49.05 26.63
29 5 - AAA 55.75 34.58
30 2 - AAA 55.61 35.53
31 5 - A 54.20 26.29
32 2 - A 54.00 33.99
33 2 - AA 52.21 29.08
34 6 - AAA 50.89 20.17
35 1 - AAA 50.63 31.39
1 - Div A - AAA 56.26 39.92
1 - Div B - AAA 39.55 19.88
36 4 - AA 48.99 32.92
37 3 - AA 48.71 32.01
38 7 - AA 47.76 30.60
39 8 - AA 44.74 23.45
40 4 - A 44.36 26.96
41 6 - A 44.10 27.16
6 - Div A - A 48.94 33.61
6 - Div B - A 39.11 21.40
42 3 - AAA 43.84 21.71
43 7 - AAA 43.81 29.26
44 7 - A 43.55 26.56
7 - Div B - A 44.82 25.58
7 - Div A - A 42.62 27.09
45 5 - AA 42.85 25.47
46 3 - A 42.45 21.83
3 - Div A - A 45.33 23.58
3 - Div B - A 39.03 19.77
47 8 - A 41.56 17.64
48 1 - A 26.16 12.23

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
09/25 Westminster (Atlanta) Therrell 23 - 25 17.29 84.9% 0.241
08/28 Southeast Whitfield Murray County 21 - 35 13.35 79.2% 0.253
09/25 Swainsboro Harlem 27 - 34 13.08 78.7% 0.281
08/28 Sandy Creek Jonesboro 15 - 17 14.33 80.7% 0.284
08/28 Emanuel County Institute Swainsboro 28 - 29 12.72 78.1% 0.315
08/28 Richmond Academy Westside (Augusta) 20 - 27 10.73 74.5% 0.320
09/18 Washington McNair 6 - 7 12.35 77.5% 0.320
09/11 Alpharetta Johns Creek 39 - 42 11.12 75.2% 0.330
09/11 Jonesboro Eagle's Landing 7 - 17 9.35 71.8% 0.334
09/25 Tri-Cities Druid Hills 10 - 14 9.56 72.2% 0.351
09/04 Central Gwinnett Mundy's Mill 20 - 35 7.59 68.1% 0.354
09/18 Vidalia McIntosh County Academy 14 - 15 10.00 73.1% 0.358
09/03 Lovejoy Dutchtown 12 - 20 8.21 69.5% 0.360
09/11 Macon County Perry 33 - 34 9.37 71.8% 0.368
09/11 Northwest Whitfield Southeast Whitfield 12 - 21 7.39 67.7% 0.372

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
90.94 09/11 Grayson Archer 26 - 24 5.11 62.5%
87.06 09/04 McEachern Buford 37 - 14 3.54 58.7%
85.56 09/11 McEachern Peachtree Ridge 6 - 9 4.53 61.1%
85.35 11/06 Mill Creek Peachtree Ridge - 7.36 67.6%
85.27 08/29 Archer Peachtree Ridge 26 - 10 6.85 66.5%
83.89 10/30 Mill Creek Norcross - 9.01 71.1%
82.55 10/23 Peachtree Ridge Norcross - 0.84 52.1%
81.26 10/02 Roswell Walton - 3.32 58.2%
80.64 08/22 McEachern Tucker 50 - 14 10.74 74.5%
79.36 10/02 Colquitt County Lowndes - 21.72 89.8%
79.00 08/21 Roswell Lowndes 35 - 8 6.38 65.4%
78.85 10/30 Archer Dacula - 12.81 78.3%
78.82 09/04 Mill Creek Dacula 34 - 7 13.33 79.1%
78.40 08/22 Norcross Valdosta 34 - 31 5.31 63.0%
77.59 11/06 Colquitt County Camden County - 23.30 91.1%

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