- Although the regular season is about 70 percent complete, several region titles are still up for grabs.  The below chart shows each region's Parity Index, which is the percentage of time the same team would win the region title twice in a row if the season was replayed infinitely from this point forward.  For example, the region champion in 3-AAAAAA would only be the same team twice in a row 35.3% of the time, with the title rotating between Hughes, East Coweta, Westlake, and Newnan 99.97% of the time with the remaining 0.3% going to South Cobb, Douglas County, and Pebblebrook.  Some region titles are fairly well in the bag.  Prince Avenue Christian has what is shown as a 100.0% chance of winning the title, although the math says Athens Academy has 1 in 333,332.33 odds of being declared champion.

Note this is not the same as each team's projected region finish.  The structure of the season makes it possible for one game to determine if a team will finish first or be bumped down to third without a chance to finish second due to some other factor, such a head to head against the second place team.  The brackets in the weekly playoff projections reflect each team's projected finish.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 9.16%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,211 of 1,299 total games including 1 tie(s) (93.26%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.41 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

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Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 2.06

By Class

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.