Sports

Maxwell Week 1 Summary: Mill Creek tops Packers on field and in ratings

By Loren Maxwell
Aug 22, 2016

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 421 teams throughout the 2016 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

- Mill Creek takes over at the top spot after downing previous number one Colquitt County 34-27 to open the season for each team. This win avenges Mill Creek's last game, a 51-33 Packer victory over the Hawks in last year's semifinals. Interestingly, it could also have been a preview of one of this year's semifinal games if both Colquitt County and Mill Creek win their respective regions.

- Valdosta tops AAAAAA in the only other change among number one teams. The Wildcats move into the top spot off the strength of a 38-13 plowing of cross-town rival Lowndes, also becoming the first high school football program in the country to earn 900 victories. The previous top team in AAAAAA, Allatoona, was dropped 30-14 by Cartersville, the highest rated team in AAAA.

- Buford retains the highest rating in AAAAA in spite of a 24-7 loss to Roswell, the number three team in AAAAAAA. Buford has been Georgia's most consistently successful program for more than two decades and started with a rating well ahead of any other team in their classification. As the season progresses, consideration for their historical performance will diminish, but for now the math says they are still the team to beat in AAAAA.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 73.73%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 125 of 128 total games including 1 tie(s) (98.05%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 14.97 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 1.50

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Mill Creek 1-0 95.29 1 Valdosta 1-0 80.75
2 Colquitt County 0-1 94.68 2 Northside (Warner Robins) 1-0 73.85
3 Roswell 1-0 90.38 3 Allatoona 0-1 73.01
4 Grayson 0-0 88.53 4 Dacula 0-0 72.81
5 McEachern 1-0 88.52 5 Lee County 1-0 70.94
6 Archer 0-1 82.12 6 Coffee 1-0 69.77
7 Norcross 1-0 79.31 7 Mays 0-0 69.37
8 Peachtree Ridge 1-0 78.10 8 Houston County 1-0 68.54
9 Camden County 0-1 72.52 9 Hughes 1-0 66.44
10 Lowndes 0-1 71.82 10 Tucker 0-1 65.58
11 Hillgrove 1-0 70.58 11 Dalton 0-0 63.22
12 Etowah 1-0 69.99 12 Creekside 1-0 63.09
13 Brookwood 1-0 69.67 13 Lanier 1-0 62.54
14 South Gwinnett 1-0 67.92 14 Northgate 1-0 62.15
15 North Cobb 1-0 67.86 15 Harrison 1-0 61.92
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 0-1 82.19 1 Cartersville 1-0 82.74
2 Ware County 0-0 72.34 2 Woodward Academy 1-0 74.47
3 Kell 1-0 70.05 3 Blessed Trinity 1-0 71.46
4 Stockbridge 0-0 69.71 4 Sandy Creek 0-1 71.04
5 Carrollton 1-0 61.82 5 Marist 0-0 67.32
6 Jones County 0-1 60.54 6 St. Pius X 0-1 64.08
7 Bainbridge 0-0 60.18 7 Jefferson 1-0 62.90
8 Starr's Mill 0-0 59.50 8 Thomson 1-0 58.18
9 Thomas County Central 1-0 58.58 9 Carver (Columbus) 0-1 56.79
10 Carver (Atlanta) 1-0 55.84 10 Mary Persons 0-1 56.36
11 Rome 0-0 55.65 11 Burke County 1-0 55.04
12 Griffin 0-0 54.10 12 Cairo 1-0 51.53
13 Warner Robins 0-1 53.88 13 West Laurens 0-0 49.84
14 East Paulding 0-1 53.59 14 Eastside 1-0 47.79
15 Woodland (Stockbridge) 1-0 51.57 15 Spalding 0-0 47.64
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Calhoun 1-0 70.58 1 Benedictine 1-0 70.10
2 Greater Atlanta Christian 1-0 69.60 2 Fitzgerald 0-0 61.07
3 Cedar Grove 1-0 64.63 3 Brooks County 1-0 58.23
4 Westminster (Atlanta) 0-1 58.58 4 Callaway 1-0 54.69
5 Lovett 0-1 55.37 5 Elbert County 0-0-1 54.67
6 Peach County 0-0 53.06 6 Vidalia 1-0 51.60
7 Hart County 0-0-1 52.71 7 Jefferson County 1-0 51.03
8 Westside (Macon) 1-0 52.00 8 Rabun County 0-0 45.64
9 Pace Academy 0-0 50.45 9 Washington County 0-0 45.62
10 Liberty County 0-0 47.45 10 Dodge County 0-1 44.84
11 Worth County 0-1 46.99 11 Lamar County 0-0 43.08
12 Cook 0-1 45.89 12 Early County 0-1 42.13
13 Monroe 0-0 45.41 13 Laney 0-1 40.69
14 Jackson 1-0 44.52 14 Heard County 1-0 36.69
15 Pierce County 0-0 43.37 15 Model 0-0 36.27
A - Public A - Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Irwin County 1-0 46.28 1 Eagle's Landing Christian 1-0 61.76
2 Clinch County 1-0 45.88 2 Prince Avenue Christian 1-0 54.41
3 Macon County 0-0 44.16 3 Mount Paran Christian 1-0 46.54
4 Marion County 1-0 41.22 4 Wesleyan 1-0 45.49
5 Charlton County 0-0 41.12 5 Aquinas 0-1 45.09
6 Emanuel County Institute 1-0 40.31 6 Darlington 1-0 42.28
7 Commerce 0-0 37.31 7 Landmark Christian 1-0 40.17
8 Bowdon 0-0 34.38 8 Calvary Day 1-0 39.16
9 Lincoln County 0-0 33.95 9 Stratford Academy 0-0 36.64
10 Trion 0-0 32.13 10 Mount Pisgah Christian 1-0 36.23
11 Mount Zion (Carroll) 0-0 31.94 11 Savannah Christian 0-1 35.70
12 Manchester 1-0 30.89 12 Pinecrest Academy 0-0 32.86
13 McIntosh County Academy 1-0 30.54 13 Athens Academy 1-0 29.30
14 Turner County 1-0 30.27 14 Brookstone 1-0 28.57
15 Washington-Wilkes 0-0 28.61 15 First Presbyterian 0-0 27.97

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Mill Creek 6 - AAAAAAA 1-0 95.29 94.68 2
2 [2] Colquitt County 1 - AAAAAAA 0-1 94.68 95.29 1
3 [3] Roswell 4 - AAAAAAA 1-0 90.38 82.19 6
4 [4] Grayson 8 - AAAAAAA 0-0 88.53 0.00 0
5 [5] McEachern 3 - AAAAAAA 1-0 88.52 82.12 7
6 [1] Cartersville 5 - AAAA 1-0 82.74 73.01 12
7 [1] Buford 8 - AAAAA 0-1 82.19 90.38 3
8 [6] Archer 8 - AAAAAAA 0-1 82.12 88.52 4
9 [1] Valdosta 1 - AAAAAA 1-0 80.75 71.82 13
10 [7] Norcross 7 - AAAAAAA 1-0 79.31 65.79 30
11 [8] Peachtree Ridge 6 - AAAAAAA 1-0 78.10 0.00 0
12 [2] Woodward Academy 4 - AAAA 1-0 74.47 58.58 53
13 [2] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 - AAAAAA 1-0 73.85 53.88 70
14 [3] Allatoona 6 - AAAAAA 0-1 73.01 82.74 5
15 [4] Dacula 8 - AAAAAA 0-0 72.81 0.00 0
16 [9] Camden County 1 - AAAAAAA 0-1 72.52 0.00 0
17 [2] Ware County 2 - AAAAA 0-0 72.34 0.00 0
18 [10] Lowndes 1 - AAAAAAA 0-1 71.82 80.75 8
19 [3] Blessed Trinity 7 - AAAA 1-0 71.46 64.08 37
20 [4] Sandy Creek 5 - AAAA 0-1 71.04 0.00 0
21 [5] Lee County 1 - AAAAAA 1-0 70.94 60.54 48
22 [11] Hillgrove 3 - AAAAAAA 1-0 70.58 58.48 55
23 [1] Calhoun 6 - AAA 1-0 70.58 23.97 184
24 [1] Benedictine 2 - AA 1-0 70.10 61.79 44
25 [3] Kell 7 - AAAAA 1-0 70.05 65.58 31
26 [12] Etowah 4 - AAAAAAA 1-0 69.99 25.50 175
27 [6] Coffee 1 - AAAAAA 1-0 69.77 50.82 80
28 [4] Stockbridge 4 - AAAAA 0-0 69.71 0.00 0
29 [13] Brookwood 7 - AAAAAAA 1-0 69.67 64.42 36
30 [2] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 - AAA 1-0 69.60 55.37 64
31 [7] Mays 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 69.37 0.00 0
32 [8] Houston County 1 - AAAAAA 1-0 68.54 56.36 61
33 [14] South Gwinnett 8 - AAAAAAA 1-0 67.92 61.50 47
34 [15] North Cobb 3 - AAAAAAA 1-0 67.86 52.63 73
35 [16] Westlake 2 - AAAAAAA 0-0 67.71 0.00 0
36 [17] Newton 8 - AAAAAAA 1-0 67.62 56.67 60
37 [18] Tift County 1 - AAAAAAA 1-0 67.38 46.69 90
38 [5] Marist 7 - AAAA 0-0 67.32 0.00 0
39 [9] Hughes 5 - AAAAAA 1-0 66.44 48.66 84
40 [19] Parkview 7 - AAAAAAA 1-0 66.30 0.00 0
41 [20] Walton 4 - AAAAAAA 0-1 65.79 79.31 9
42 [10] Tucker 4 - AAAAAA 0-1 65.58 70.05 19
43 [21] East Coweta 2 - AAAAAAA 1-0 65.38 55.79 63
44 [22] Shiloh 8 - AAAAAAA 1-0 65.27 63.27 38
45 [23] Milton 5 - AAAAAAA 1-0 64.69 56.76 59
46 [3] Cedar Grove 5 - AAA 1-0 64.63 61.53 46
47 [24] North Gwinnett 6 - AAAAAAA 0-1 64.42 69.67 22
48 [6] St. Pius X 8 - AAAA 0-1 64.08 71.46 14
49 [25] Collins Hill 6 - AAAAAAA 0-1 63.27 65.27 33
50 [11] Dalton 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 63.22 0.00 0
51 [12] Creekside 5 - AAAAAA 1-0 63.09 0.00 0
52 [7] Jefferson 8 - AAAA 1-0 62.90 25.55 174
53 [13] Lanier 8 - AAAAAA 1-0 62.54 46.40 94
54 [14] Northgate 5 - AAAAAA 1-0 62.15 45.83 98
55 [15] Harrison 6 - AAAAAA 1-0 61.92 53.59 71
56 [5] Carrollton 7 - AAAAA 1-0 61.82 55.33 65
57 [16] Glynn Academy 2 - AAAAAA 0-1 61.79 70.10 18
58 [17] South Paulding 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 61.79 0.00 0
59 [1] Eagle's Landing Christian 5 - A 1-0 61.76 42.55 109
60 [18] Stephenson 4 - AAAAAA 0-1 61.53 64.63 35
61 [26] Central Gwinnett 7 - AAAAAAA 0-1 61.50 67.92 25
62 [2] Fitzgerald 1 - AA 0-0 61.07 0.00 0
63 [6] Jones County 4 - AAAAA 0-1 60.54 70.94 15
64 [7] Bainbridge 1 - AAAAA 0-0 60.18 0.00 0
65 [27] West Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 1-0 60.16 52.05 74
66 [28] Wheeler 2 - AAAAAAA 1-0 60.02 50.08 82
67 [29] North Paulding 3 - AAAAAAA 1-0 60.01 46.61 91
68 [19] Gainesville 8 - AAAAAA 1-0 59.99 32.87 146
69 [8] Starr's Mill 3 - AAAAA 0-0 59.50 0.00 0
70 [4] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 - AAA 0-1 58.58 74.47 10
71 [9] Thomas County Central 1 - AAAAA 1-0 58.58 46.99 89
72 [30] South Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 0-1 58.48 70.58 16
73 [3] Brooks County 1 - AA 1-0 58.23 45.89 96
74 [8] Thomson 3 - AAAA 1-0 58.18 40.69 120
75 [31] Lambert 5 - AAAAAAA 0-0 57.01 0.00 0
76 [9] Carver (Columbus) 1 - AAAA 0-1 56.79 0.00 0
77 [32] Lassiter 4 - AAAAAAA 1-0 56.76 37.71 129
78 [20] Alpharetta 7 - AAAAAA 0-1 56.76 64.69 34
79 [21] Drew 4 - AAAAAA 0-1 56.67 67.62 27
80 [22] Alexander 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 56.57 0.00 0
81 [10] Mary Persons 2 - AAAA 0-1 56.36 68.54 24
82 [10] Carver (Atlanta) 6 - AAAAA 1-0 55.84 35.32 138
83 [23] Lovejoy 4 - AAAAAA 0-1 55.79 65.38 32
84 [11] Rome 7 - AAAAA 0-0 55.65 0.00 0
85 [24] Creekview 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 55.45 0.00 0
86 [5] Lovett 5 - AAA 0-1 55.37 69.60 23
87 [33] Newnan 2 - AAAAAAA 0-1 55.33 61.82 43
88 [11] Burke County 3 - AAAA 1-0 55.04 33.93 142
89 [4] Callaway 5 - AA 1-0 54.69 41.22 116
90 [5] Elbert County 8 - AA 0-0-1 54.67 52.71 72
91 [2] Prince Avenue Christian 8 - A 1-0 54.41 45.09 100
92 [12] Griffin 3 - AAAAA 0-0 54.10 0.00 0
93 [13] Warner Robins 1 - AAAAA 0-1 53.88 73.85 11
94 [14] East Paulding 7 - AAAAA 0-1 53.59 61.92 42
95 [6] Peach County 4 - AAA 0-0 53.06 0.00 0
96 [7] Hart County 8 - AAA 0-0-1 52.71 54.67 68
97 [34] Cherokee 4 - AAAAAAA 0-1 52.63 67.86 26
98 [35] Woodstock 4 - AAAAAAA 0-1 52.05 60.16 49
99 [8] Westside (Macon) 4 - AAA 1-0 52.00 34.89 140
100 [6] Vidalia 2 - AA 1-0 51.60 44.84 101
101 [15] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 - AAAAA 1-0 51.57 31.25 151
102 [12] Cairo 1 - AAAA 1-0 51.53 34.25 141
103 [7] Jefferson County 4 - AA 1-0 51.03 35.70 137
104 [25] Effingham County 2 - AAAAAA 0-1 50.82 69.77 21
105 [16] Harris County 1 - AAAAA 1-0 50.77 0.00 0
106 [9] Pace Academy 5 - AAA 0-0 50.45 0.00 0
107 [17] Dutchtown 4 - AAAAA 0-0 50.45 0.00 0
108 [36] Mountain View 6 - AAAAAAA 1-0 50.36 19.68 199
109 [37] Marietta 3 - AAAAAAA 0-1 50.08 60.02 50
110 [18] Clarke Central 8 - AAAAA 1-0 49.96 37.78 128
111 [13] West Laurens 2 - AAAA 0-0 49.84 0.00 0
112 [19] Wayne County 2 - AAAAA 0-0 49.82 0.00 0
113 [26] Brunswick 2 - AAAAAA 0-0 49.21 0.00 0
114 [27] New Manchester 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 49.10 0.00 0
115 [28] Mundy's Mill 4 - AAAAAA 0-1 48.66 66.44 29
116 [20] Riverwood 6 - AAAAA 0-0 48.46 0.00 0
117 [21] Villa Rica 7 - AAAAA 1-0 48.17 42.69 108
118 [29] Cambridge 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 48.10 0.00 0
119 [30] M.L. King 4 - AAAAAA 1-0 47.81 40.70 119
120 [14] Eastside 4 - AAAA 1-0 47.79 35.22 139
121 [15] Spalding 2 - AAAA 0-0 47.64 0.00 0
122 [10] Liberty County 2 - AAA 0-0 47.45 0.00 0
123 [22] Grady 6 - AAAAA 1-0 47.25 24.00 183
124 [23] Flowery Branch 8 - AAAAA 0-0 47.12 0.00 0
125 [11] Worth County 1 - AAA 0-1 46.99 58.58 54
126 [24] South Effingham 2 - AAAAA 0-1 46.69 67.38 28
127 [31] Lakeside (Evans) 3 - AAAAAA 0-1 46.67 0.00 0
128 [25] Paulding County 7 - AAAAA 0-1 46.61 60.01 51
129 [38] North Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 1-0 46.57 43.39 105
130 [26] Loganville 8 - AAAAA 0-0 46.55 0.00 0
131 [3] Mount Paran Christian 6 - A 1-0 46.54 22.98 189
132 [32] Northview 7 - AAAAAA 0-1 46.40 62.54 40
133 [33] Centennial 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 46.36 0.00 0
134 [4] Irwin County 2 - A 1-0 46.28 22.48 191
135 [16] Stephens County 8 - AAAA 0-0 46.03 0.00 0
136 [12] Cook 1 - AAA 0-1 45.89 58.23 56
137 [5] Clinch County 2 - A 1-0 45.88 20.70 197
138 [27] Veterans 1 - AAAAA 0-1 45.83 62.15 41
139 [17] Upson-Lee 2 - AAAA 0-0 45.75 0.00 0
140 [28] Locust Grove 4 - AAAAA 0-0 45.69 0.00 0
141 [8] Rabun County 8 - AA 0-0 45.64 0.00 0
142 [9] Washington County 3 - AA 0-0 45.62 0.00 0
143 [6] Wesleyan 5 - A 1-0 45.49 15.11 214
144 [13] Monroe 1 - AAA 0-0 45.41 0.00 0
145 [7] Aquinas 7 - A 0-1 45.09 54.41 69
146 [18] North Oconee 8 - AAAA 0-0 45.01 0.00 0
147 [29] Cass 7 - AAAAA 0-0 44.99 0.00 0
148 [10] Dodge County 3 - AA 0-1 44.84 51.60 76
149 [30] Hiram 7 - AAAAA 1-0 44.69 38.24 126
150 [14] Jackson 4 - AAA 1-0 44.52 27.76 166
151 [34] Sprayberry 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 44.51 0.00 0
152 [19] Westover 1 - AAAA 0-0 44.38 0.00 0
153 [8] Macon County 4 - A 0-0 44.16 0.00 0
154 [20] Pickens 6 - AAAA 1-0 44.12 32.04 148
155 [35] Tri-Cities 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 43.54 0.00 0
156 [36] Sequoyah 6 - AAAAAA 0-1 43.39 46.57 92
157 [15] Pierce County 2 - AAA 0-0 43.37 0.00 0
158 [39] Pebblebrook 2 - AAAAAAA 1-0 43.33 36.19 135
159 [11] Lamar County 5 - AA 0-0 43.08 0.00 0
160 [21] Oconee County 8 - AAAA 0-0 42.97 0.00 0
161 [37] Douglas County 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 42.87 0.00 0
162 [31] Southwest DeKalb 5 - AAAAA 1-0 42.79 26.61 170
163 [22] Central (Carrollton) 5 - AAAA 0-1 42.69 48.17 85
164 [32] Eagle's Landing 4 - AAAAA 0-1 42.55 61.76 45
165 [16] Crisp County 1 - AAA 1-0 42.48 27.14 169
166 [33] Miller Grove 5 - AAAAA 1-0 42.32 -5.66 246
167 [9] Darlington 6 - A 1-0 42.28 0.00 0
168 [23] Ridgeland 6 - AAAA 1-0 42.27 37.60 130
169 [12] Early County 1 - AA 0-1 42.13 0.00 0
170 [24] Northwest Whitfield 6 - AAAA 1-0 42.11 29.29 161
171 [34] Arabia Mountain 5 - AAAAA 1-0 41.24 0.30 241
172 [10] Marion County 4 - A 1-0 41.22 -7.10 247
173 [25] LaGrange 5 - AAAA 0-1 41.22 54.69 67
174 [35] McIntosh 3 - AAAAA 1-0 41.14 32.90 145
175 [11] Charlton County 2 - A 0-0 41.12 0.00 0
176 [40] Rockdale County 8 - AAAAAAA 1-0 40.79 27.47 168
177 [36] Columbia 5 - AAAAA 0-1 40.70 47.81 86
178 [13] Laney 4 - AA 0-1 40.69 58.18 57
179 [17] Appling County 2 - AAA 0-0 40.62 0.00 0
180 [12] Emanuel County Institute 3 - A 1-0 40.31 25.69 172
181 [26] Salem 4 - AAAA 1-0 40.18 29.78 158
182 [13] Landmark Christian 5 - A 1-0 40.17 28.60 162
183 [37] Whitewater 3 - AAAAA 0-0 39.49 0.00 0
184 [38] Richmond Hill 2 - AAAAAA 0-0 39.42 0.00 0
185 [38] Statesboro 2 - AAAAA 0-0 39.37 0.00 0
186 [14] Calvary Day 3 - A 1-0 39.16 -7.64 248
187 [39] Evans 3 - AAAAAA 0-0 39.11 0.00 0
188 [27] Baldwin 3 - AAAA 1-0 38.85 17.01 208
189 [41] Kennesaw Mountain 3 - AAAAAAA 0-1 38.24 44.69 102
190 [28] Northside (Columbus) 1 - AAAA 1-0 38.20 21.44 194
191 [40] Winder-Barrow 8 - AAAAAA 0-1 37.78 49.96 83
192 [41] Johns Creek 7 - AAAAAA 0-1 37.71 56.76 58
193 [18] Adairsville 6 - AAA 0-1 37.60 42.27 112
194 [15] Commerce 8 - A 0-0 37.31 0.00 0
195 [42] Jonesboro 4 - AAAAAA 0-1 37.19 29.96 157
196 [29] Shaw 1 - AAAA 0-0 37.18 0.00 0
197 [39] Fayette County 3 - AAAAA 0-0 37.14 0.00 0
198 [40] Ola 4 - AAAAA 1-0 36.70 15.35 211
199 [14] Heard County 5 - AA 1-0 36.69 13.25 216
200 [16] Stratford Academy 7 - A 0-0 36.64 0.00 0
201 [15] Model 7 - AA 0-0 36.27 0.00 0
202 [17] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 - A 1-0 36.23 24.84 181
203 [43] South Cobb 6 - AAAAAA 0-1 36.19 43.33 106
204 [42] Forsyth Central 5 - AAAAAAA 0-0 36.15 0.00 0
205 [19] North Hall 7 - AAA 1-0 35.79 11.94 219
206 [18] Savannah Christian 3 - A 0-1 35.70 51.03 79
207 [16] Screven County 4 - AA 0-1 35.67 0.00 0
208 [41] Lithonia 5 - AAAAA 0-1 35.32 55.84 62
209 [30] Luella 4 - AAAA 0-1 35.22 47.79 87
210 [31] Howard 2 - AAAA 0-1 34.89 52.00 75
211 [20] Morgan County 8 - AAA 0-0 34.83 0.00 0
212 [32] Perry 2 - AAAA 0-0 34.78 0.00 0
213 [21] Central (Macon) 4 - AAA 0-0 34.39 0.00 0
214 [19] Bowdon 6 - A 0-0 34.38 0.00 0
215 [17] Thomasville 1 - AA 0-1 34.25 51.53 78
216 [33] Chapel Hill 5 - AAAA 0-0 34.05 0.00 0
217 [20] Lincoln County 7 - A 0-0 33.95 0.00 0
218 [44] Grovetown 3 - AAAAAA 0-1 33.93 55.04 66
219 [42] Riverdale 3 - AAAAA 1-0 33.93 22.08 193
220 [34] Americus-Sumter 1 - AAAA 0-0 33.24 0.00 0
221 [22] Southeast Bulloch 3 - AAA 0-0 33.12 0.00 0
222 [45] Habersham Central 8 - AAAAAA 1-0 33.10 23.58 186
223 [46] Pope 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 33.01 0.00 0
224 [43] Decatur 6 - AAAAA 0-1 32.90 41.14 117
225 [35] West Hall 7 - AAAA 0-1 32.87 59.99 52
226 [21] Pinecrest Academy 6 - A 0-0 32.86 0.00 0
227 [18] Dublin 3 - AA 1-0 32.66 23.96 185
228 [22] Trion 6 - A 0-0 32.13 0.00 0
229 [47] Chattahoochee 7 - AAAAAA 0-1 32.04 44.12 104
230 [23] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 - A 0-0 31.94 0.00 0
231 [19] Washington 6 - AA 0-0 31.80 0.00 0
232 [44] Maynard Jackson 6 - AAAAA 0-0 31.78 0.00 0
233 [20] Spencer 5 - AA 0-0 31.71 0.00 0
234 [23] Jenkins 3 - AAA 1-0 31.54 7.75 230
235 [24] Jackson County 8 - AAA 1-0 31.50 19.06 200
236 [45] Union Grove 4 - AAAAA 0-1 31.25 51.57 77
237 [21] Hapeville Charter 6 - AA 1-0 30.96 0.00 0
238 [25] Dawson County 7 - AAA 0-0 30.91 0.00 0
239 [24] Manchester 4 - A 1-0 30.89 10.06 225
240 [26] Franklin County 8 - AAA 1-0 30.61 25.43 176
241 [25] McIntosh County Academy 3 - A 1-0 30.54 20.18 198
242 [46] Cedar Shoals 8 - AAAAA 0-0 30.50 0.00 0
243 [27] Sonoraville 6 - AAA 0-0 30.27 0.00 0
244 [26] Turner County 2 - A 1-0 30.27 18.62 201
245 [36] Columbus 1 - AAAA 0-0 30.26 0.00 0
246 [22] Pepperell 7 - AA 0-0 30.12 0.00 0
247 [48] Alcovy 3 - AAAAAA 1-0 30.09 28.06 165
248 [49] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 - AAAAAA 1-0 29.96 37.19 131
249 [50] Heritage (Conyers) 3 - AAAAAA 0-1 29.78 40.18 122
250 [37] Druid Hills 4 - AAAA 1-0 29.45 20.78 196
251 [27] Athens Academy 8 - A 1-0 29.30 14.17 215
252 [28] Ringgold 6 - AAA 0-1 29.29 42.11 113
253 [23] Bacon County 2 - AA 0-0 29.01 0.00 0
254 [28] Washington-Wilkes 7 - A 0-0 28.61 0.00 0
255 [24] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 - AA 0-1 28.60 40.17 123
256 [29] Brookstone 4 - A 1-0 28.57 16.45 209
257 [38] Henry County 4 - AAAA 0-0 28.53 0.00 0
258 [29] Union County 7 - AAA 0-0 28.24 0.00 0
259 [51] River Ridge 6 - AAAAAA 1-0 28.13 18.28 202
260 [43] Duluth 6 - AAAAAAA 0-1 28.06 30.09 156
261 [30] First Presbyterian 7 - A 0-0 27.97 0.00 0
262 [39] Cedartown 5 - AAAA 0-1 27.89 0.00 0
263 [25] Swainsboro 2 - AA 0-1 27.76 44.52 103
264 [44] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 - AAAAAAA 1-0 27.66 17.36 206
265 [45] Berkmar 7 - AAAAAAA 0-1 27.47 40.79 118
266 [40] Richmond Academy 3 - AAAA 0-0 27.24 0.00 0
267 [31] Dooly County 4 - A 0-1 27.14 42.48 110
268 [30] Redan 5 - AAA 0-1 26.61 42.79 107
269 [26] Bryan County 2 - AA 0-0 26.49 0.00 0
270 [27] Chattooga 7 - AA 0-0 26.30 0.00 0
271 [32] Pelham 1 - A 1-0 26.01 10.19 224
272 [33] Athens Christian 8 - A 0-0 25.87 0.00 0
273 [28] Metter 2 - AA 0-1 25.69 40.31 121
274 [31] North Murray 6 - AAA 1-0 25.57 20.91 195
275 [46] Discovery 6 - AAAAAAA 0-1 25.55 62.90 39
276 [47] Campbell 2 - AAAAAAA 0-1 25.50 69.99 20
277 [48] Meadowcreek 7 - AAAAAAA 0-0 25.44 0.00 0
278 [41] White County 7 - AAAA 0-1 25.43 30.61 153
279 [42] Troup 5 - AAAA 0-1 25.34 24.86 180
280 [52] Bradwell Institute 2 - AAAAAA 0-0 25.22 0.00 0
281 [47] Walnut Grove 8 - AAAAA 0-0 24.99 0.00 0
282 [43] Southeast Whitfield 6 - AAAA 1-0 24.95 -9.80 250
283 [32] Monroe Area 8 - AAA 0-0 24.92 0.00 0
284 [34] Johnson County 3 - A 1-0 24.90 -5.51 245
285 [44] Hardaway 1 - AAAA 1-0 24.86 25.34 177
286 [35] Holy Innocents 5 - A 0-1 24.84 36.23 134
287 [36] Seminole County 1 - A 0-0 24.24 0.00 0
288 [33] Fannin County 7 - AAA 1-0 24.06 23.21 188
289 [53] North Atlanta 7 - AAAAAA 0-1 24.00 47.25 88
290 [29] Douglass 6 - AA 0-1 23.97 70.58 17
291 [34] Tattnall County 2 - AAA 0-1 23.96 32.66 147
292 [48] Lithia Springs 6 - AAAAA 0-0 23.90 0.00 0
293 [35] Bremen 6 - AAA 0-0 23.65 0.00 0
294 [37] Hawkinsville 4 - A 0-0 23.59 0.00 0
295 [36] East Hall 7 - AAA 0-1 23.58 33.10 144
296 [38] Gordon Lee 6 - A 1-0 23.36 17.76 205
297 [45] Gilmer 6 - AAAA 0-1 23.21 24.06 182
298 [39] Our Lady of Mercy 5 - A 0-1 22.98 46.54 93
299 [40] Fellowship Christian 6 - A 1-0 22.90 9.58 227
300 [41] Telfair County 2 - A 0-0 22.59 0.00 0
301 [30] Berrien 1 - AA 0-1 22.48 46.28 95
302 [42] Wilkinson County 7 - A 0-0 22.47 0.00 0
303 [46] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 - AAAA 1-0 22.26 -15.22 252
304 [47] North Clayton 4 - AAAA 0-1 22.08 33.93 143
305 [37] Kendrick 4 - AAA 0-1 21.44 38.20 127
306 [43] Christian Heritage 6 - A 0-1 20.91 25.57 173
307 [49] Chamblee 5 - AAAAA 0-1 20.78 29.45 159
308 [31] Bleckley County 3 - AA 0-1 20.70 45.88 97
309 [32] Northeast 3 - AA 0-0 20.28 0.00 0
310 [38] Brantley County 2 - AAA 0-1 20.18 30.54 154
311 [50] Banneker 6 - AAAAA 0-0 20.09 0.00 0
312 [44] Greene County 7 - A 0-0 19.74 0.00 0
313 [39] Lumpkin County 7 - AAA 0-0 19.73 0.00 0
314 [54] Osborne 6 - AAAAAA† 0-1 19.68 50.36 81
315 [40] Rutland 4 - AAA 0-0 19.49 0.00 0
316 [55] Greenbrier 3 - AAAAAA 0-0 19.44 0.00 0
317 [33] Southwest 3 - AA 0-0 19.21 0.00 0
318 [34] Coosa 7 - AA 0-0 19.12 0.00 0
319 [35] Banks County 8 - AA 0-1 19.06 31.50 150
320 [41] Dougherty 1 - AAA 0-1 18.62 30.27 155
321 [51] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 - AAAAA 0-1 18.28 28.13 164
322 [36] Rockmart 7 - AA 1-0 18.22 0.00 0
323 [45] Mount de Sales 7 - A 1-0 18.07 12.16 218
324 [37] Toombs County 2 - AA 1-0 18.01 7.44 231
325 [38] Dade County 7 - AA 0-1 17.76 23.36 187
326 [56] Dunwoody 7 - AAAAAA 0-1 17.36 27.66 167
327 [46] Taylor County 4 - A 1-0 17.24 8.02 229
328 [47] George Walton Academy 8 - A 0-0 17.09 0.00 0
329 [48] Hancock Central 7 - A 0-1 17.01 38.85 125
330 [39] Jeff Davis 2 - AA 0-0 16.78 0.00 0
331 [40] Monticello 8 - AA 0-0 16.52 0.00 0
332 [41] Jordan 5 - AA 0-1 16.45 28.57 163
333 [48] Madison County 8 - AAAA 0-0 16.32 0.00 0
334 [49] Mitchell County 1 - A 0-0 16.26 0.00 0
335 [52] North Springs 6 - AAAAA 0-0 15.88 0.00 0
336 [57] Forest Park 4 - AAAAAA† 1-0 15.56 15.22 212
337 [42] Pike County 4 - AAA 0-1 15.35 36.70 132
338 [43] Towers 5 - AAA 0-1 15.22 15.56 210
339 [49] Cross Creek 3 - AAAA 1-0 15.20 5.88 234
340 [44] McNair 5 - AAA 0-0 15.12 0.00 0
341 [42] Therrell 6 - AA 0-1 15.11 45.49 99
342 [50] Claxton 3 - A 0-0 14.44 0.00 0
343 [45] Long County 2 - AAA 0-0 14.35 0.00 0
344 [51] Walker 6 - A 0-1 14.17 29.30 160
345 [58] Apalachee 8 - AAAAAA 0-0 14.15 0.00 0
346 [46] Beach 3 - AAA 0-0 13.88 0.00 0
347 [52] Wilcox County 2 - A 0-0 13.60 0.00 0
348 [43] South Atlanta 6 - AA 0-1 13.25 36.69 133
349 [53] Hebron Christian Academy 8 - A 1-0 12.46 1.89 240
350 [54] Pacelli 4 - A 0-1 12.16 18.07 203
351 [55] Savannah Country Day 3 - A 0-0 12.11 0.00 0
352 [50] Chestatee 7 - AAAA 0-1 11.94 35.79 136
353 [56] Jenkins County 3 - A 1-0 11.91 -1.63 243
354 [57] Warren County 7 - A 1-0 11.69 11.41 222
355 [58] St. Francis 6 - A 0-0 11.64 0.00 0
356 [59] Whitefield Academy 6 - A 0-0 11.41 0.00 0
357 [44] Putnam County 8 - AA 0-1 11.41 11.69 221
358 [60] Treutlen 3 - A 1-0 11.28 -3.74 244
359 [61] Twiggs County 7 - A 0-0 10.66 0.00 0
360 [45] Albany 1 - AA 0-1 10.19 26.01 171
361 [62] Greenville 4 - A 0-1 10.06 30.89 152
362 [46] Harlem 4 - AA 0-0 9.94 0.00 0
363 [63] Randolph-Clay 1 - A 1-0 9.64 0.00 0
364 [51] LaFayette 6 - AAAA 1-0 9.61 -1.30 242
365 [64] Atkinson County 2 - A 0-1 9.58 22.90 190
366 [53] Hampton 4 - AAAAA 1-0 9.28 4.60 238
367 [47] Westside (Augusta) 4 - AA 0-0 9.13 0.00 0
368 [65] Miller County 1 - A 0-0 9.03 0.00 0
369 [66] Chattahoochee County 1 - A 0-0 8.66 0.00 0
370 [67] Portal 3 - A 0-0 8.43 0.00 0
371 [47] Johnson (Savannah) 3 - AAA 0-0 8.12 0.00 0
372 [48] Savannah 3 - AAA 0-0 8.05 0.00 0
373 [68] Terrell County 1 - A 0-1 8.02 17.24 207
374 [54] New Hampstead 2 - AAAAA 0-1 7.75 31.54 149
375 [48] East Laurens 3 - AA 0-1 7.44 18.01 204
376 [69] King's Ridge Christian 6 - A 1-0 7.19 -21.91 255
377 [70] Crawford County 4 - A 0-0 6.94 0.00 0
378 [49] Josey 4 - AA 0-0 6.93 0.00 0
379 [50] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6 - AA 1-0 6.88 -17.88 253
380 [49] Haralson County 6 - AAA 0-0 6.15 0.00 0
381 [51] Butler 4 - AA 0-1 5.88 15.20 213
382 [52] Social Circle 8 - AA 1-0 5.66 5.38 236
383 [55] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 - AAAAA 0-1 5.38 5.66 235
384 [71] Tattnall Square 7 - A 0-0 4.96 0.00 0
385 [50] Murray County 6 - AAA 1-0 4.61 -18.36 254
386 [56] Morrow 3 - AAAAA 0-1 4.60 9.28 228
387 [72] Wheeler County 3 - A 1-0 3.42 -8.03 249
388 [53] Temple 5 - AA 0-0 2.45 0.00 0
389 [51] East Jackson 8 - AAA 0-1 1.89 12.46 217
390 [73] Riverside Military Academy 8 - A 0-0 1.43 0.00 0
391 [74] Lanier County 2 - A 0-0 1.38 0.00 0
392 [52] Stone Mountain 5 - AAA 0-1 0.30 41.24 114
393 [75] Lakeview Academy 8 - A 0-0 -0.90 0.00 0
394 [54] Armuchee 7 - AA 0-1 -1.30 9.61 226
395 [52] Hephzibah 3 - AAAA 0-1 -1.63 11.91 220
396 [53] Groves 3 - AAA 0-0 -1.99 0.00 0
397 [55] Oglethorpe County 8 - AA 0-0 -2.15 0.00 0
398 [76] Strong Rock Christian 5 - A 0-0 -2.31 0.00 0
399 [77] North Cobb Christian 6 - A 0-0 -2.35 0.00 0
400 [78] Towns County 8 - A 1-0 -2.67 0.00 0
401 [79] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 - A 0-0 -2.82 0.00 0
402 [80] Georgia Military College 7 - A† 0-1 -3.74 11.28 223
403 [54] Windsor Forest 3 - AAA 0-0 -4.67 0.00 0
404 [81] Montgomery County 3 - A 0-1 -5.51 24.90 179
405 [57] Clarkston 5 - AAAAA† 0-1 -5.66 42.32 111
406 [82] Calhoun County 1 - A 0-0 -6.26 0.00 0
407 [83] Schley County 4 - A 0-1 -7.10 41.22 115
408 [56] Glenn Hills 4 - AA 0-0 -7.52 0.00 0
409 [55] Islands 3 - AAA 0-1 -7.64 39.16 124
410 [84] Central (Talbotton) 4 - A 0-1 -8.03 3.42 239
411 [56] Coahulla Creek 6 - AAA 0-1 -9.80 24.95 178
412 [85] Baconton Charter 1 - A 1-0 -10.13 -32.71 256
413 [57] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 - AAA 0-1 -15.22 22.26 192
414 [86] Fulton Leadership Academy 5 - A 0-1 -17.88 6.88 233
415 [57] Gordon Central 7 - AA 0-1 -18.36 4.61 237
416 [87] Providence Christian 8 - A 0-0 -20.67 0.00 0
417 [88] Glascock County 7 - A† 0-1 -21.91 7.19 232
418 [58] Cross Keys 5 - AAAAA† 0-0 -28.79 0.00 0
419 [89] Stewart County 1 - A 0-0 -31.67 0.00 0
420 [90] Pataula Charter 1 - A† 0-1 -32.71 -10.13 251
421 [91] Webster County 1 - A† 0-0 -36.71 0.00 0
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAAA 93.70 75.68
2 8 - AAAAAAA 88.08 69.62
3 1 - AAAAAA 87.20 72.70
4 6 - AAAAAAA 83.82 58.51
5 4 - AAAAAAA 82.98 63.33
6 3 - AAAAAAA 82.67 62.47
7 7 - AAAAAAA 76.19 52.62
8 5 - AAAAAA 73.48 57.48
9 2 - AAAAAAA 71.86 54.42
10 5 - AAAA 71.29 42.90
11 8 - AAAAAA 70.37 47.78
12 5 - AAAAAAA 70.20 54.36
13 7 - AAAA 70.15 39.48
14 1 - AAAAA 68.51 53.88
15 6 - AAAAAA 68.11 50.78
16 7 - AAAAA 67.42 50.18
17 2 - AAAAA 66.25 44.82
18 8 - AAAA 66.02 47.46
19 4 - AAAAAA 66.02 50.87
20 8 - AAAAA 64.32 40.35
21 4 - AAAAA 64.24 45.18
22 2 - AAAAAA 63.12 45.78
23 5 - AAA 62.10 36.78
24 2 - AAAA 60.49 44.93
25 1 - AA 60.37 38.40
26 4 - AAAA 59.10 37.48
27 3 - AAAAA 58.34 40.04
28 3 - AAAA 56.81 33.03
29 1 - AAA 56.55 41.07
30 1 - AAAA 56.28 39.30
31 7 - AAAAAA 55.64 38.19
32 4 - AAA 54.20 34.23
33 2 - AA 53.75 30.33
34 6 - AAAAA 53.55 34.16
35 5 - AA 51.81 31.89
36 7 - AAA 51.36 30.47
37 2 - AAA 50.03 31.76
38 5 - A 49.67 22.30
39 3 - AAAAAA 49.03 33.16
40 5 - AAAAA 48.74 37.67
41 8 - AAA 48.50 30.09
42 6 - AAAA 47.80 29.93
43 2 - A 47.17 26.56
44 3 - AA 46.00 26.87
45 8 - AA 45.42 18.83
46 6 - AAA 43.65 19.86
  6 - South - AAA 57.71 31.30
  6 - North - AAA 29.58 6.46
47 6 - A 42.92 24.70
  6 - Div A - A 44.11 27.43
  6 - Div B - A 41.64 22.11
48 4 - AA 42.78 16.87
49 4 - A 39.25 19.33
  4 - Div A - A 39.64 19.83
  4 - Div B - A 38.82 18.86
50 8 - A 38.93 14.82
51 3 - A 38.31 18.52
  3 - Div A - A 41.49 23.31
  3 - Div B - A 33.94 13.46
52 7 - A 38.06 22.81
  7 - Div B - A 38.89 25.62
  7 - Div A - A 37.07 20.06
53 6 - AA 37.72 21.69
54 7 - AA 36.06 18.06
55 3 - AAA 29.73 9.06
56 1 - A 22.46 7.01

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/19 Mount Zion (Jonesboro) Jonesboro - 32.7% 0.398
08/19 Jenkins New Hampstead 21 - 20 91.5% 0.465
08/19 Hardaway Troup 21 - 14 - 48.8% 0.493
08/19 Heard County South Atlanta 22 - 19 91.2% 0.497
08/19 Elbert County Hart County 13 - 13 54.9% 0.498
08/19 Forest Park Towers 50.9% 0.504
08/19 Social Circle Johnson (Gainesville) 19 - 14 50.7% 0.504
08/19 Warren County Putnam County 14 - 0 50.7% 0.505
08/19 Mill Creek Colquitt County 34 - 27 51.5% 0.509
08/19 Fannin County Gilmer 17 - 14 52.1% 0.510
08/19 Alcovy Duluth 27 - 19 55.0% 0.528
08/19 Shiloh Collins Hill 27 - 14 55.0% 0.533
08/19 Cedar Grove Stephenson 34 - 23 57.7% 0.547
08/19 Salem Heritage (Conyers) 14 - 13 73.9% 0.549
08/19 Druid Hills Chamblee 14 - 13 70.4% 0.550

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
94.98 08/20 Mill Creek Colquitt County 34 - 27 0.61 51.5%
92.33 09/09 Colquitt County Roswell - 2.81 57.0%
88.47 09/02 McEachern Grayson - 1.49 53.7%
85.51 09/09 Mill Creek Archer - 11.68 76.3%
85.13 09/23 Roswell Archer - 6.76 66.3%
84.66 08/19 Roswell Buford 24 - 7 8.19 69.4%
84.31 08/20 McEachern Archer 27 - 14 6.40 65.5%
84.13 09/23 Colquitt County Valdosta - 12.44 77.6%
83.80 10/14 Grayson Archer - 7.91 68.8%
80.67 09/16 Archer Norcross - 1.31 53.3%
79.95 08/26 Archer Peachtree Ridge - 2.52 56.3%
79.46 10/14 Mill Creek Peachtree Ridge - 18.69 86.6%
75.80 09/23 McEachern Camden County - 14.50 81.0%
75.61 08/19 Cartersville Allatoona 30 - 14 9.74 72.6%
75.59 10/07 Valdosta Northside (Warner Robins) - 8.40 69.8%

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Loren Maxwell

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