Sports

Maxwell Week 3 Summary: McEachern easily drops Buford in season's top rated matchup

By Loren Maxwell
Sept 8, 2015

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2015 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results from this past week:

- McEachern dropped Buford 37-14 to jump into the number two spot in the all-class ratings and just 5.99 points below Colquitt County. This is the first time since Week 2 of the 2014 season that any Class AAAAAA team has been rated within a touchdown of the Packers.

- Meanwhile Buford dropped by 8.07 points. Still, the Wolves retained their top ranking in Class AAAA and are rated two touchdowns highest their nearest Class AAAA competitor, Cartersville.

- The McEachern-Buford game remains the highest rated matchup of the season, but Archer visits Grayson this weekend in the second highest. So far, six of the top fifteen matchups of the season have been played, with only one score being within two touchdowns. In the ratings, Archer, ranked #1 in the current AJC poll, is a 2-point underdog to Grayson, ranked #4 by the AJC.

- Perennial underdog Meadowcreek made an 18-point jump in the ratings, the largest after Week 3, after upending Rockdale County 43-18 under first year coach Jason Carrera. This marks the Mustangs sixth win in their last 136 games and the 25-point margin is the largest experienced by the school since 1994.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 43.80%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 419 of 440 total games including 1 tie(s) (95.34%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.14 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 0.46

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Colquitt County 3-0 100.35 1 Northside (Warner Robins) 2-0 79.81
2 McEachern 2-0 94.36 2 Creekside 3-0 77.95
3 Grayson 2-0 88.29 3 Ware County 2-0 74.12
4 Mill Creek 3-0 87.45 4 Mays 3-0 73.55
5 Archer 2-0 86.95 5 Coffee 2-0 72.67
6 Norcross 3-0 83.98 6 Stockbridge 2-0 70.36
7 North Gwinnett 2-1 83.66 7 Allatoona 2-1 70.21
8 Walton 3-0 80.02 8 Gainesville 0-1 69.41
9 Camden County 3-0 79.46 9 East Paulding 2-0 69.37
10 Tucker 2-1 79.32 10 Kell 1-1 68.51
11 Valdosta 2-1 77.04 11 Stephenson 1-1 67.45
12 Etowah 3-0 76.23 12 Glynn Academy 2-1 66.51
13 Dacula 1-1 75.75 13 South Paulding 2-0 66.49
14 Peachtree Ridge 0-2 75.67 14 Warner Robins 2-0 64.93
15 Roswell 2-0 74.07 15 Houston County 2-0 63.67
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 2-1 88.46 1 Calhoun 2-0 78.21
2 Cartersville 2-0 74.36 2 Blessed Trinity 2-0 74.83
3 Woodward Academy 2-0 71.45 3 Jefferson 3-0 67.35
4 Marist 1-1 71.38 4 Cedar Grove 1-1 61.98
5 Sandy Creek 2-1 69.56 5 Westside (Macon) 2-0 59.75
6 St. Pius X 0-2 65.12 6 Washington County 0-2 59.52
7 Mary Persons 2-0 64.87 7 Elbert County 2-0 59.38
8 West Laurens 3-0 64.20 8 Hart County 2-0 58.01
9 Burke County 3-0 62.64 9 Westminster (Atlanta) 1-1 57.29
10 Griffin 1-1 61.62 10 Peach County 1-1 54.62
11 Jonesboro 3-0 61.62 11 Central (Carrollton) 2-0 54.48
12 Thomson 2-0 59.83 12 Laney 1-1 53.33
13 Bainbridge 2-0 58.87 13 Cook 1-1 53.10
14 Thomas County Central 1-1 57.99 14 Dodge County 2-0 50.37
15 Wayne County 2-1 57.06 15 Callaway 2-1 48.39
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Benedictine 1-0 76.42 1 Eagle's Landing Christian 1-2 56.95
2 Greater Atlanta Christian 2-1 72.83 2 Mount Paran Christian 3-0 54.79
3 Fitzgerald 3-0 63.74 3 Marion County 1-0 51.79
4 Vidalia 2-1 54.66 4 Prince Avenue Christian 2-0 49.19
5 Lovett 0-3 54.10 5 Clinch County 2-0 48.57
6 Pace Academy 3-0 53.92 6 Calvary Day 2-0 47.34
7 Macon County 2-0 52.81 7 Charlton County 1-0 46.03
8 Thomasville 0-1 50.20 8 Irwin County 1-1-1 45.31
9 Dublin 2-0 49.83 9 Landmark Christian 2-1 43.74
10 Brooks County 1-2 49.00 10 Aquinas 1-1 43.59
11 Rabun County 2-1 46.89 11 Lincoln County 2-0 41.03
12 Wesleyan 3-0 46.49 12 Pacelli 2-0 40.10
13 Lamar County 1-1 45.22 13 Emanuel County Institute 1-1 39.52
14 Jefferson County 0-2 44.29 14 Savannah Christian 1-1 39.50
15 Bacon County 2-0 43.13 15 Hawkinsville 1-1 39.16

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 3-0 100.35 61.20 58
2 [2] McEachern 4-AAAAAA 2-0 94.36 83.66 5
3 [1] Buford 8-AAAA 2-1 88.46 69.59 28
4 [3] Grayson 8-AAAAAA 2-0 88.29 67.54 34
5 [4] Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 3-0 87.45 67.18 35
6 [5] Archer 8-AAAAAA 2-0 86.95 66.49 36
7 [6] Norcross 7-AAAAAA 3-0 83.98 71.48 24
8 [7] North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 2-1 83.66 79.26 8
9 [8] Walton 5-AAAAAA 3-0 80.02 65.01 39
10 [1] Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 2-0 79.81 60.63 59
11 [9] Camden County 1-AAAAAA 3-0 79.46 63.82 46
12 [10] Tucker 2-AAAAAA 2-1 79.32 52.82 102
13 [1] Calhoun 6-AAA 2-0 78.21 59.50 67
14 [2] Creekside 6-Div B-AAAAA 3-0 77.95 60.09 62
15 [11] Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 2-1 77.04 59.34 68
16 [1] Benedictine 2-AA 1-0 76.42 72.38 20
17 [12] Etowah 5-AAAAAA 3-0 76.23 56.63 80
18 [13] Dacula 8-AAAAAA 1-1 75.75 74.00 16
19 [14] Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 0-2 75.67 87.40 2
20 [2] Blessed Trinity 4-Div B-AAA 2-0 74.83 58.66 73
21 [2] Cartersville 7-AAAA 2-0 74.36 57.36 78
22 [3] Ware County 3-AAAAA 2-0 74.12 26.54 312
23 [15] Roswell 5-AAAAAA 2-0 74.07 56.35 83
24 [16] Tift County 1-AAAAAA 3-0 73.80 41.13 192
25 [17] Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 2-0 73.64 65.16 38
26 [18] Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 2-1 73.59 73.17 17
27 [4] Mays 6-Div B-AAAAA 3-0 73.55 48.62 132
28 [2] Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 2-1 72.83 62.43 50
29 [5] Coffee 3-AAAAA 2-0 72.67 31.18 273
30 [19] Lee County 1-AAAAAA 3-0 71.84 44.28 172
31 [3] Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 2-0 71.45 55.51 87
32 [4] Marist 6-AAAA 1-1 71.38 54.56 92
33 [20] Westlake 3-AAAAAA 2-0 71.22 45.57 159
34 [21] North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 0-3 71.18 79.13 9
35 [22] Milton 5-AAAAAA 0-2 70.93 78.81 10
36 [23] Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 1-2 70.77 71.61 23
37 [6] Stockbridge 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-0 70.36 56.49 82
38 [7] Allatoona 5-AAAAA 2-1 70.21 58.03 76
39 [24] Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 2-1 70.16 64.45 44
40 [5] Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 2-1 69.56 45.90 153
41 [8] Gainesville 8-AAAAA 0-1 69.41 87.84 1
42 [9] East Paulding 5-AAAAA 2-0 69.37 63.99 45
43 [10] Kell 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-1 68.51 64.85 42
44 [25] East Coweta 3-AAAAAA 2-0 68.38 54.57 91
45 [11] Stephenson 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 67.45 46.30 147
46 [3] Jefferson 8-AAA 3-0 67.35 43.78 175
47 [26] Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 1-1 67.28 61.65 55
48 [27] Newnan 3-AAAAAA 2-0 66.86 56.28 84
49 [28] Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 0-2 66.53 85.49 4
50 [12] Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 2-1 66.51 62.42 51
51 [13] South Paulding 5-AAAAA 2-0 66.49 49.63 126
52 [29] Hughes 3-AAAAAA 0-3 65.68 80.30 7
53 [30] South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 1-1 65.67 70.29 27
54 [31] Parkview 8-AAAAAA 2-0 65.16 47.77 139
55 [6] St. Pius X 6-AAAA 0-2 65.12 73.14 18
56 [14] Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 2-0 64.93 40.48 201
57 [7] Mary Persons 2-AAAA 2-0 64.87 49.96 122
58 [32] Newton 2-AAAAAA 3-0 64.81 42.96 183
59 [8] West Laurens 2-AAAA 3-0 64.20 48.79 130
60 [3] Fitzgerald 1-AA 3-0 63.74 44.26 174
61 [15] Houston County 2-AAAAA 2-0 63.67 38.35 219
62 [33] Harrison 4-AAAAAA 2-1 63.29 57.14 79
63 [16] Alexander 5-AAAAA 2-0 63.29 48.15 136
64 [17] Mundy's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 63.08 64.98 41
65 [34] Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 1-1 62.69 61.82 53
66 [9] Burke County 3-AAAA 3-0 62.64 49.88 123
67 [18] Dalton 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 62.43 78.66 11
68 [4] Cedar Grove 4-Div A-AAA 1-1 61.98 48.41 134
69 [10] Griffin 4-Div B-AAAA 1-1 61.62 45.70 157
70 [11] Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 3-0 61.62 48.08 137
71 [19] Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-1 61.14 62.24 52
72 [20] Lanier 8-AAAAA 2-0 60.95 50.60 116
73 [35] Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 0-3 60.56 67.81 31
74 [36] Cherokee 5-AAAAAA 2-1 60.35 50.27 119
75 [21] New Manchester 5-AAAAA 2-0 60.27 50.48 117
76 [12] Thomson 3-AAAA 2-0 59.83 51.90 107
77 [5] Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 2-0 59.75 41.02 196
78 [6] Washington County 3-AAA 0-2 59.52 62.81 49
79 [37] West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 0-2 59.39 81.00 6
80 [7] Elbert County 8-AAA 2-0 59.38 42.10 188
81 [22] Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 2-1 59.10 52.95 101
82 [13] Bainbridge 1-Div B-AAAA 2-0 58.87 47.55 141
83 [38] Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 2-1 58.31 51.19 109
84 [8] Hart County 8-AAA 2-0 58.01 37.04 228
85 [14] Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 1-1 57.99 55.10 90
86 [23] Starr's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 2-0 57.89 45.84 154
87 [39] North Paulding 4-AAAAAA 0-3 57.77 74.87 14
88 [24] Jones County 2-AAAAA 2-0 57.74 25.25 318
89 [9] Westminster (Atlanta) 4-Div B-AAA 1-1 57.29 53.72 96
90 [25] Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 2-0 57.22 40.38 204
91 [15] Wayne County 3-AAAA 2-1 57.06 49.66 124
92 [1] Eagle's Landing Christian 5-A 1-2 56.95 72.05 22
93 [40] South Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 2-0 56.87 44.94 162
94 [16] Carrollton 5-AAAA 0-3 56.56 71.14 25
95 [17] Grady 6-AAAA 2-0 56.30 43.76 176
96 [41] South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 1-1 56.01 60.50 61
97 [42] Marietta 4-AAAAAA 0-3 56.00 74.61 15
98 [18] Whitewater 5-AAAA 1-1 55.86 45.79 155
99 [43] Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 0-2 55.63 70.99 26
100 [19] North Oconee 8-AAAA 0-2 55.12 72.52 19
101 [26] Drew 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 54.83 53.44 99
102 [2] Mount Paran Christian 6-Div A-A 3-0 54.79 24.68 320
103 [4] Vidalia 2-AA 2-1 54.66 41.78 189
104 [10] Peach County 2-AAA 1-1 54.62 50.29 118
105 [11] Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 2-0 54.48 34.24 252
106 [27] M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 54.47 59.97 64
107 [5] Lovett 6-AA 0-3 54.10 60.50 60
108 [6] Pace Academy 6-AA 3-0 53.92 43.14 181
109 [28] Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 1-1 53.55 31.80 269
110 [12] Laney 3-AAA 1-1 53.33 53.56 98
111 [29] Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 2-0 53.21 32.58 264
112 [30] Sequoyah 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-2 53.12 75.53 13
113 [13] Cook 1-Div A-AAA 1-1 53.10 52.11 106
114 [44] Lambert 6-AAAAAA 1-1 53.02 47.81 138
115 [20] Cairo 1-Div A-AAAA 0-1 53.01 58.42 74
116 [7] Macon County 4-AA 2-0 52.81 41.02 195
117 [31] Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 52.78 55.60 86
118 [32] Creekview 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 52.72 57.67 77
119 [33] Brunswick 3-AAAAA 1-1 52.54 43.56 178
120 [34] Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-1 51.95 54.34 93
121 [3] Marion County 4-A 1-0 51.79 11.40 381
122 [45] Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 2-1 51.37 38.22 220
123 [35] Carver (Atlanta) 6-Div B-AAAAA 1-2 51.14 51.06 110
124 [36] Loganville 8-AAAAA 2-0 51.01 39.78 207
125 [21] Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 2-0 50.81 38.40 218
126 [37] Harris County 1-AAAAA 0-2 50.70 59.29 69
127 [22] Stephens County 8-AAAA 1-1 50.65 42.17 185
128 [46] Douglas County 3-AAAAAA 0-2 50.50 61.78 54
129 [38] LaGrange 1-AAAAA 2-1 50.47 45.93 152
130 [14] Dodge County 1-Div A-AAA 2-0 50.37 36.92 230
131 [8] Thomasville 1-AA 0-1 50.20 64.66 43
132 [39] Evans 2-AAAAA 1-1 50.07 55.23 89
133 [9] Dublin 3-AA 2-0 49.83 42.16 186
134 [40] Hiram 5-AAAAA 1-1 49.55 46.26 149
135 [41] Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-0 49.22 31.45 272
136 [4] Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 2-0 49.19 21.92 338
137 [23] Baldwin 2-AAAA 2-0 49.18 21.91 339
138 [42] Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 0-2 49.10 59.94 65
139 [10] Brooks County 1-AA 1-2 49.00 61.34 56
140 [43] South Effingham 3-AAAAA 2-0 48.99 35.65 239
141 [44] Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-2 48.86 53.71 97
142 [24] Locust Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 2-0 48.81 37.10 226
143 [47] Northview 6-AAAAAA 2-0 48.71 31.49 271
144 [45] Effingham County 3-AAAAA 2-0 48.62 41.02 197
145 [5] Clinch County 2-A 2-0 48.57 27.73 303
146 [25] Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 2-0 48.55 35.12 244
147 [15] Callaway 5-AAA 2-1 48.39 42.15 187
148 [46] Salem 8-AAAAA 2-0 48.35 33.53 258
149 [47] Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-0 48.26 30.31 284
150 [26] Eagle's Landing 4-Div A-AAAA 2-0 47.95 29.78 289
151 [27] Pickens 7-AAAA 2-0 47.48 33.34 260
152 [6] Calvary Day 3-Div A-A 2-0 47.34 20.43 344
153 [48] Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 1-2 47.32 55.39 88
154 [28] Westover 1-Div B-AAAA 0-2 47.12 66.27 37
155 [29] Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 2-0 47.09 27.80 302
156 [30] Eastside 4-Div A-AAAA 2-0 47.02 23.07 327
157 [11] Rabun County 8-AA 2-1 46.89 40.56 200
158 [31] Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 0-2 46.75 68.37 29
159 [48] Paulding County 5-AAAAA 1-1 46.70 50.67 115
160 [16] Adairsville 6-AAA 2-0 46.65 27.88 300
161 [12] Wesleyan 6-AA 3-0 46.49 27.32 308
162 [49] Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 0-3 46.40 63.21 48
163 [7] Charlton County 2-A 1-0 46.03 25.55 317
164 [32] Worth County 1-Div B-AAAA 0-2 45.97 67.79 33
165 [33] Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 1-0 45.67 23.60 323
166 [17] West Hall 7-AAA 2-0 45.67 22.41 333
167 [34] Columbia 6-AAAA 0-2 45.47 51.67 108
168 [50] Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-0 45.42 31.58 270
169 [51] Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-1 45.32 34.87 245
170 [8] Irwin County 2-A 1-1-1 45.31 44.40 169
171 [13] Lamar County 4-AA 1-1 45.22 34.63 247
172 [18] Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 1-1 44.99 52.61 103
173 [52] Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 1-0 44.90 18.23 352
174 [49] Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-2 44.81 76.63 12
175 [53] Statesboro 3-AAAAA 0-2 44.77 60.08 63
176 [50] North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 1-1 44.46 48.70 131
177 [19] Pierce County 1-Div A-AAA 1-1 44.45 36.66 235
178 [14] Jefferson County 3-AA 0-2 44.29 61.24 57
179 [35] Howard 2-AAAA 3-0 44.29 36.37 236
180 [51] Pope 5-AAAAAA 0-2 43.96 59.65 66
181 [54] Winder-Barrow 8-AAAAA 1-1 43.93 46.24 150
182 [9] Landmark Christian 5-A 2-1 43.74 34.31 249
183 [10] Aquinas 7-Div B-A 1-1 43.59 30.94 275
184 [55] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 3-0 43.59 20.06 346
185 [56] Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 43.54 50.74 114
186 [15] Bacon County 2-AA 2-0 43.13 23.07 326
187 [57] Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 1-1 43.12 38.04 221
188 [52] Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 0-2 43.11 49.63 125
189 [20] Ringgold 6-AAA 1-1 42.72 39.89 206
190 [53] Centennial 6-AAAAAA 0-2 42.55 65.01 40
191 [16] Darlington 7-AA 2-0 42.40 22.22 335
192 [17] Early County 1-AA 1-1-1 42.10 41.16 191
193 [21] Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 2-1 42.01 43.07 182
194 [18] Bleckley County 4-AA 1-2 41.88 51.06 111
195 [58] Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-2 41.87 47.73 140
196 [36] Veterans 2-AAAA 0-2 41.86 58.24 75
197 [19] Heard County 5-AA 0-2 41.47 55.84 85
198 [37] Liberty County 3-AAAA 2-1 41.47 30.92 276
199 [22] Jackson County 8-AAA 2-0 41.39 29.71 291
200 [23] Appling County 1-Div A-AAA 0-2 41.32 49.99 121
201 [24] Jackson 2-AAA 1-1 41.30 43.43 179
202 [38] Troup 5-AAAA 0-2 41.25 53.39 100
203 [11] Lincoln County 7-Div B-A 2-0 41.03 30.26 285
204 [39] North Hall 8-AAAA 0-1 40.97 67.81 32
205 [40] Lithonia 6-AAAA 2-0 40.72 10.19 384
206 [20] Screven County 3-AA 2-0 40.58 30.19 286
207 [41] Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 1-2 40.18 45.70 156
208 [12] Pacelli 4-A 2-0 40.10 28.22 298
209 [13] Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 1-1 39.52 35.43 241
210 [14] Savannah Christian 3-Div A-A 1-1 39.50 32.23 266
211 [54] Duluth 7-AAAAAA 1-2 39.47 44.68 163
212 [25] Oconee County 8-AAA 2-0 39.36 10.90 383
213 [42] Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 0-2 39.20 86.55 3
214 [15] Hawkinsville 4-A 1-1 39.16 32.83 263
215 [16] Commerce 8-A 2-0 39.15 18.00 353
216 [17] Tattnall Square 7-Div A-A 2-0 38.64 8.80 393
217 [59] Shaw 1-AAAAA 1-2 38.59 46.03 151
218 [60] McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 38.24 38.84 212
219 [43] White County 8-AAAA 0-2 38.18 44.43 165
220 [21] Model 7-AA 3-0 37.93 27.81 301
221 [55] Campbell 3-AAAAAA 2-0 37.92 9.25 389
222 [22] Swainsboro 3-AA 1-2 37.89 56.61 81
223 [18] Turner County 2-A 2-0 37.46 27.69 304
224 [26] Pepperell 5-AAA 1-1 37.14 40.47 202
225 [56] Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 0-2 37.04 52.40 104
226 [19] Mount Pisgah Christian 6-Div B-A 1-1 36.84 35.41 242
227 [61] Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 0-2 36.66 48.38 135
228 [62] Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-1 36.63 33.56 257
229 [44] Gilmer 7-AAAA 1-1 36.63 29.59 292
230 [45] Perry 2-AAAA 0-2 36.55 50.85 112
231 [46] Monroe Area 8-AAAA 1-1 36.44 39.57 210
232 [27] Washington 4-Div B-AAA 0-2 36.37 53.72 95
233 [28] Dawson County 7-AAA 1-1 36.12 41.02 194
234 [47] Fayette County 5-AAAA 0-3 35.82 50.77 113
235 [63] Grovetown 2-AAAAA 1-1 35.75 35.64 240
236 [20] Dooly County 4-A 1-1 35.43 30.62 278
237 [57] Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 1-1 35.39 33.00 261
238 [29] Central (Macon) 2-AAA 1-1 34.86 35.90 237
239 [58] Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 0-2 34.67 52.19 105
240 [64] Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-2 34.60 63.54 47
241 [23] Bowdon 5-AA 0-2 34.24 45.58 158
242 [21] Stratford Academy 7-Div A-A 1-1 34.20 33.96 253
243 [65] Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-0 34.14 13.99 369
244 [24] B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 0-1 34.09 48.85 129
245 [48] Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 1-1 34.07 42.60 184
246 [66] Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 1-1 34.04 37.94 222
247 [25] Union County 8-AA 2-0 33.84 6.87 398
248 [59] Rockdale County 2-AAAAAA 1-2 33.83 37.02 229
249 [30] Maynard Jackson 4-Div A-AAA 1-1 33.77 32.87 262
250 [26] Seminole County 1-AA 0-1 33.57 39.64 209
251 [67] Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 0-1 33.54 58.92 72
252 [68] Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 0-2 33.24 41.09 193
253 [31] Cedartown 5-AAA 0-2 33.16 50.18 120
254 [22] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-Div A-A 2-1 32.32 7.31 396
255 [27] Pelham 1-AA 2-0 32.31 11.74 377
256 [69] Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 0-2 32.25 41.64 190
257 [28] Metter 3-AA 2-1 32.06 30.34 283
258 [23] Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 1-1 31.98 30.62 279
259 [32] Sonoraville 6-AAA 1-1 31.96 32.21 267
260 [33] Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 2-1 31.95 18.53 351
261 [24] Pinecrest Academy 6-Div B-A 1-0 31.39 17.14 357
262 [34] Rutland 2-AAA 1-1 31.34 40.60 199
263 [29] Hapeville 6-AA 2-0 31.32 20.66 343
264 [35] Spencer 2-AAA 1-1 31.22 43.61 177
265 [49] Chamblee 6-AAAA 1-1 31.01 31.09 274
266 [25] Johnson County 3-Div B-A 1-1 30.98 36.87 232
267 [50] Redan 6-AAAA 2-0 30.86 17.84 354
268 [70] Columbus 1-AAAAA 2-0 30.59 22.46 332
269 [26] First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 0-1 30.20 44.29 171
270 [36] Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 2-0 29.99 15.15 362
271 [60] Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 1-1 29.91 49.32 127
272 [30] Washington-Wilkes 8-AA 0-2 29.81 34.28 250
273 [37] Westside (Augusta) 3-AAA 1-2 29.73 40.78 198
274 [31] Chattooga 7-AA 2-0 29.72 22.37 334
275 [51] Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 0-2 29.67 68.17 30
276 [27] Trion 6-Div A-A 2-0 29.54 7.02 397
277 [32] Berrien 1-AA 0-2 29.50 49.21 128
278 [38] Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 0-2 29.28 46.27 148
279 [71] Northside (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 1-1 29.03 26.02 314
280 [52] Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 1-1 28.96 23.05 328
281 [33] Holy Innocents 6-AA 1-2 28.87 38.84 213
282 [53] Ridgeland 7-AAAA 0-2 28.71 37.73 223
283 [39] East Hall 7-AAA 0-2 28.50 46.53 144
284 [40] Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 1-1 28.33 36.68 234
285 [54] Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 1-1 28.14 29.22 294
286 [28] Claxton 3-Div A-A 1-1 28.06 27.21 310
287 [72] Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 28.03 13.08 372
288 [41] Morgan County 8-AAA 0-2 27.94 40.31 205
289 [34] Greene County 8-AA 2-0 27.91 19.99 347
290 [35] Dade County 7-AA 2-0 27.54 - 411
291 [29] Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 1-1 27.52 32.33 265
292 [30] Greenville 4-A 1-0 27.23 11.72 378
293 [42] North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 0-2 27.21 44.43 167
294 [31] Athens Academy 8-A 2-0 27.13 4.03 405
295 [36] Coosa 7-AA 0-2 27.12 44.43 166
296 [73] Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-2 27.05 46.49 146
297 [55] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 1-1 27.01 39.50 211
298 [61] Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 0-2 26.70 48.55 133
299 [74] Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-2 25.96 44.41 168
300 [32] Christian Heritage 6-Div A-A 0-2 25.90 40.38 203
301 [75] North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-0 25.77 15.77 360
302 [76] Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 0-2 25.74 38.43 217
303 [43] Rockmart 5-AAA 1-1 25.58 23.99 322
304 [37] Manchester 5-AA 1-1 25.55 30.62 280
305 [77] Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 1-1 25.43 35.36 243
306 [44] Towers 4-Div A-AAA 0-2 25.23 44.95 161
307 [45] Lumpkin County 7-AAA 0-2 25.14 35.89 238
308 [56] Chestatee 8-AAAA 0-2 25.08 44.39 170
309 [46] Franklin County 7-AAA 0-2 24.97 54.33 94
310 [33] Brookstone 4-A 0-2 24.84 33.72 256
311 [78] Apalachee 8-AAAAA 0-2 24.22 43.30 180
312 [79] River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-2 24.21 38.57 214
313 [57] Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 0-2 24.06 45.45 160
314 [58] Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 2-0 24.02 8.94 391
315 [34] Mitchell County 1-A 1-1 23.89 22.21 336
316 [35] Wilcox County 2-A 0-2 23.78 37.29 225
317 [38] Bryan County 2-AA 0-2 23.27 30.06 288
318 [62] Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 1-2 23.13 29.41 293
319 [47] Fannin County 7-AAA 1-1 23.07 23.55 325
320 [48] Banks County 7-AAA 1-1 23.03 28.99 295
321 [36] Telfair County 2-A 1-1 23.00 15.70 361
322 [49] Southwest 2-AAA 1-1 22.89 34.24 251
323 [39] Putnam County 4-AA 2-1 22.88 21.63 340
324 [40] Bremen 5-AA 0-2 22.68 36.86 233
325 [63] Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 0-2 22.60 47.34 143
326 [80] Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-1 22.56 33.75 254
327 [37] Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 1-1 22.16 14.64 365
328 [41] Monticello 4-AA 0-2 22.00 34.72 246
329 [38] Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 0-1 21.96 39.64 208
330 [39] Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 2-0 21.96 1.12 409
331 [40] Athens Christian 8-A 1-2 21.56 23.59 324
332 [42] McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 0-3 21.53 44.55 164
333 [43] Northeast 4-AA 0-2 21.45 27.57 306
334 [50] Kendrick 2-AAA 1-1 20.81 4.14 404
335 [51] Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 1-1 20.75 22.70 330
336 [44] Gordon Lee 7-AA 2-1 20.74 14.87 364
337 [41] Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 0-2 20.52 33.74 255
338 [59] Madison County 8-AAAA 0-3 20.34 36.90 231
339 [52] Jordan 2-AAA 1-1 20.09 24.36 321
340 [45] Jeff Davis 2-AA 2-0 20.01 2.86 406
341 [81] Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-2 19.76 46.52 145
342 [60] Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 1-2 19.75 28.99 296
343 [42] Walker 6-Div A-A 1-1 19.49 30.63 277
344 [43] Terrell County 1-A 1-2 19.04 33.49 259
345 [53] Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 0-2 18.69 37.07 227
346 [82] Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-2 18.30 31.82 268
347 [44] Treutlen 3-Div B-A 2-0 18.25 11.42 380
348 [64] Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 0-3 17.74 38.45 216
349 [45] George Walton Academy 8-A 0-2 17.74 30.09 287
350 [61] Southeast Whitfield 7-AAAA 2-1 17.39 -0.15 412
351 [83] Hardaway 1-AAAAA 1-2 17.22 26.43 313
352 [46] Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 0-2 17.11 38.54 215
353 [54] Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 2-0 16.83 -9.69 417
354 [46] Long County 2-AA 0-1 16.77 30.44 282
355 [84] North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 0-2 16.68 37.49 224
356 [47] East Laurens 3-AA 2-0 16.65 8.92 392
357 [55] North Murray 6-AAA 0-2 16.03 27.65 305
358 [47] Taylor County 4-A 0-2 15.66 21.10 342
359 [62] New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 2-1 14.91 27.16 311
360 [48] King's Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 0-1 14.77 19.95 348
361 [49] Jenkins County 3-Div A-A 1-1 14.62 7.50 395
362 [48] Chattahoochee County 5-AA 1-1 14.54 12.29 376
363 [56] Beach 1-Div B-AAA 2-1 14.45 9.06 390
364 [57] Josey 3-AAA 2-0 13.64 8.46 394
365 [58] Glenn Hills 3-AAA 0-2 13.60 59.03 71
366 [63] Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 0-2 13.03 21.92 337
367 [59] McNair 4-Div A-AAA 0-2 12.54 25.81 316
368 [50] Atkinson County 2-A 0-2 12.44 25.98 315
369 [60] Haralson County 5-AAA 0-2 12.17 29.77 290
370 [51] Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 2-1 12.05 12.44 375
371 [52] Miller County 1-A 0-2 11.86 47.40 142
372 [64] Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-2 11.82 59.08 70
373 [65] LaFayette 7-AAAA 1-1 11.51 5.98 400
374 [53] Randolph-Clay 1-A 2-1 11.41 13.31 370
375 [61] Hephzibah 3-AAA 0-1 10.68 23.02 329
376 [54] Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 1-1 10.57 12.57 374
377 [62] Murray County 6-AAA 1-1 10.47 20.23 345
378 [55] Central (Talbotton) 4-A 2-0 9.60 2.61 407
379 [49] Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 0-1 8.94 21.50 341
380 [63] Butler 3-AAA 0-1 8.70 13.19 371
381 [64] East Jackson 8-AAA 1-1 8.64 9.65 387
382 [56] Portal 3-Div A-A 0-2 8.23 16.40 359
383 [65] Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 1-2 7.70 17.77 355
384 [50] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 0-2 7.32 28.88 297
385 [57] Warren County 7-Div B-A 1-2 7.03 19.15 349
386 [51] Groves 2-AA 0-2 6.97 10.00 386
387 [52] Harlem 3-AA 0-2 6.71 30.59 281
388 [66] South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 0-2 6.69 27.38 307
389 [58] Calhoun County 1-A 0-3 6.46 27.88 299
390 [59] Lakeview Academy 8-A 1-1 6.34 6.17 399
391 [53] Crawford County 4-AA† 2-1 5.63 0.88 410
392 [60] St. Francis 6-Div B-A 1-1 4.61 -9.58 416
393 [67] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 0-2 4.29 24.85 319
394 [68] Islands 1-Div B-AAA 1-1 4.17 19.00 350
395 [66] Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-2 4.08 72.29 21
396 [61] Schley County 4-A 0-1 2.83 -0.87 414
397 [62] Lanier County 2-A 0-2 2.60 27.27 309
398 [54] Temple 5-AA 1-1 2.44 5.32 402
399 [63] Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 0-1 2.18 17.10 358
400 [64] Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 0-1 0.43 22.54 331
401 [55] Oglethorpe County 8-AA 0-2 0.24 44.27 173
402 [65] Strong Rock Christian 5-A 0-2 -0.19 9.39 388
403 [66] Baconton 1-A 1-2 -0.42 14.06 368
404 [56] Social Circle 8-AA 1-0 -2.78 -0.65 413
405 [69] Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 1-1 -3.04 5.34 401
406 [67] Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 0-2 -3.25 10.13 385
407 [68] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 1-2 -3.70 2.52 408
408 [85] Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 0-3 -3.94 34.42 248
409 [57] Armuchee 7-AA 0-3 -6.70 17.63 356
410 [69] North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 1-1 -6.72 -2.12 415
411 [67] Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 0-2 -7.77 11.07 382
412 [70] Gordon Central 6-AAA 0-2 -7.86 14.45 366
413 [70] Towns County 8-A 0-2 -10.49 15.07 363
414 [71] Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 0-3 -13.49 14.36 367
415 [72] Stewart County 1-A† 0-2 -21.67 11.63 379
416 [68] Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 0-2 -25.16 5.06 403
417 [73] Providence Christian 8-A 0-2 -26.40 12.93 373
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAA 95.29 77.82
2 7 - AAAAAA 87.94 65.22
3 8 - AAAAAA 86.41 67.74
4 5 - AAAAAA 82.97 65.99
5 4 - AAAAAA 81.75 64.32
6 2 - AAAAAA 75.25 48.86
7 3 - AAAAAA 74.90 57.33
8 5 - AAAA 73.67 55.37
9 3 - AAAAA 72.66 53.13
10 5 - AAAAA 72.44 54.08
11 6 - AAAAA 70.43 51.61
6 - Div B - AAAAA 78.69 58.14
6 - Div A - AAAAA 62.69 46.90
12 2 - AAAAA 70.28 48.76
13 2 - AAAA 66.36 49.07
14 4 - AAAAA 66.12 46.73
4 - Div B - AAAAA 66.93 47.28
4 - Div A - AAAAA 65.49 46.16
15 6 - AAAAAA 65.78 47.17
16 8 - AAA 65.45 44.52
17 3 - AAAA 65.26 49.74
18 6 - AAAA 63.75 44.65
19 8 - AAAAA 63.71 45.51
20 7 - AAAAA 63.37 45.06
7 - Div A - AAAAA 63.59 46.04
7 - Div B - AAAAA 63.12 44.05
21 6 - AA 62.95 41.31
22 8 - AAAA 62.41 41.89
23 1 - AAAA 61.06 43.91
1 - Div A - AAAA 61.63 44.17
1 - Div B - AAAA 60.47 43.67
24 1 - AA 60.32 42.45
25 4 - AAAA 58.86 39.10
4 - Div B - AAAA 63.28 42.52
4 - Div A - AAAA 54.20 36.00
26 7 - AAAA 58.77 35.51
27 4 - AAA 58.54 32.84
4 - Div B - AAA 65.63 40.84
4 - Div A - AAA 48.83 26.03
28 1 - AAAAA 58.31 39.55
29 2 - AA 57.42 29.19
30 5 - AAA 54.16 35.45
31 2 - AAA 54.00 34.22
32 5 - A 52.97 27.44
33 3 - AAA 51.70 23.71
34 3 - AA 51.57 33.87
35 6 - AAA 51.41 21.03
36 4 - AA 50.53 34.10
37 2 - A 50.34 30.69
38 1 - AAA 50.16 30.93
1 - Div A - AAA 56.29 39.88
1 - Div B - AAA 37.81 18.59
39 4 - A 47.01 27.71
40 7 - AAA 45.09 29.10
41 7 - AA 44.19 27.28
42 6 - A 42.72 26.29
6 - Div A - A 46.91 31.27
6 - Div B - A 38.85 22.11
43 3 - A 42.48 22.34
3 - Div A - A 45.39 25.93
3 - Div B - A 38.49 17.20
44 7 - A 42.39 25.32
7 - Div A - A 43.05 26.84
7 - Div B - A 41.49 22.93
45 8 - AA 42.15 21.13
46 5 - AA 41.61 23.79
47 8 - A 39.38 16.50
48 1 - A 25.62 12.05

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/28 Southeast Whitfield Murray County 21 - 35 7.37 67.6% 0.360
08/28 Sandy Creek Jonesboro 15 - 17 8.39 69.8% 0.379
09/03 Lovejoy Dutchtown 12 - 20 6.59 65.9% 0.389
09/04 Morgan County Putnam County 10 - 13 5.51 63.4% 0.422
09/04 Rockdale County Meadowcreek 18 - 43 3.47 58.6% 0.425
09/04 Westminster (Atlanta) Laney 3 - 10 4.42 60.9% 0.430
09/04 Schley County Baconton 7 - 21 3.70 59.1% 0.431
08/21 Luella Shaw 14 - 39 2.82 57.0% 0.439
08/21 Laney Dublin 0 - 3 3.96 59.8% 0.446
08/28 Richmond Academy Westside (Augusta) 20 - 27 2.97 57.4% 0.454
09/03 LaGrange Spalding 9 - 20 2.38 55.9% 0.459
08/28 Groves Islands 0 - 8 2.35 55.8% 0.463
08/28 Strong Rock Christian Social Circle 23 - 31 2.13 55.3% 0.466
09/04 Washington-Wilkes Wilkinson County 34 - 39 1.83 54.6% 0.474
09/04 Gilmer Dawson County 9 - 23 0.96 52.4% 0.483

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
90.42 09/04 McEachern Buford 37 - 14 6.36 65.4%
87.54 09/11 Grayson Archer - 1.80 54.5%
85.99 08/22 Colquitt County North Gwinnett 45 - 14 16.69 84.1%
85.33 10/30 Mill Creek Norcross - 3.93 59.7%
85.28 09/25 Mill Creek North Gwinnett - 3.34 58.3%
83.81 10/02 Norcross North Gwinnett - 0.78 51.9%
81.81 08/22 McEachern Tucker 50 - 14 15.04 81.8%
81.58 11/06 Colquitt County Camden County - 20.44 88.5%
79.33 08/22 Norcross Valdosta 34 - 31 6.94 66.7%
78.62 09/04 Mill Creek Dacula 34 - 7 11.25 75.5%
78.62 10/30 Archer Dacula - 10.74 74.5%
78.31 10/16 Colquitt County Valdosta - 23.77 91.5%
78.15 10/02 Camden County Valdosta - 1.96 54.9%
78.14 10/23 Grayson Dacula - 13.00 78.6%
78.08 08/29 Archer Peachtree Ridge 26 - 10 11.74 76.4%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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