The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2015 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.
Interesting results from this past week:
- Grayson's victory over Archer combined with McEachern's loss to Peachtree Ridge pushes the Rams into the number two spot in Class AAAAAA. Turmoil in the ratings below Colquitt County continues the trend from 2014 where the Packers seem head and shoulders above the rest of the classification with a tight grouping of teams below them. Colquitt County is 10.38 points better than Grayson while 9.99 points separates Grayson from number ten Roswell.
- McEachern's loss also took the luster off their Week 3 matchup with Buford. Grayson's last second 26-24 victory over Archer is now the season's top rated matchup.
- The McEachern-Buford game remains the highest rated matchup of the season, but Archer visits Grayson this weekend in the second highest. So far, six of the top fifteen matchups of the season have been played, with only one score being within two touchdowns. In the ratings, Archer, ranked #1 in the current AJC poll, is a 2-point underdog to Grayson, ranked #4 by the AJC.
- Perennial underdog Meadowcreek won big again by setting a school scoring record in dumping Clarkston 53-14. This improves the Mustangs to 2-1, their first winning record at any point in the season since Week 3 of 2001. However, the victory barely moved the needle in the ratings for either team. Clarkston is the lowest rated team in Class AAAAA, nearly three touchdowns below Hardaway, rated the second lowest in Class AAAAA.
Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings
As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.
The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 34.69%.
For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 581 of 611 total games including 1 tie(s) (95.17%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.37 points.
The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.
All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
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Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.
Home Advantage: 0.25
By Class
All-Class
Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.
Regions
Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.
Least Likely Results
These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.
Highest Rated Matchups
These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.
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