Maxwell Week 4 Summary: Class AAAAAA contenders continue to percolate

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2015 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results from this past week:

- Grayson's victory over Archer combined with McEachern's loss to Peachtree Ridge pushes the Rams into the number two spot in Class AAAAAA. Turmoil in the ratings below Colquitt County continues the trend from 2014 where the Packers seem head and shoulders above the rest of the classification with a tight grouping of teams below them. Colquitt County is 10.38 points better than Grayson while 9.99 points separates Grayson from number ten Roswell.

- McEachern's loss also took the luster off their Week 3 matchup with Buford. Grayson's last second 26-24 victory over Archer is now the season's top rated matchup.

- The McEachern-Buford game remains the highest rated matchup of the season, but Archer visits Grayson this weekend in the second highest. So far, six of the top fifteen matchups of the season have been played, with only one score being within two touchdowns. In the ratings, Archer, ranked #1 in the current AJC poll, is a 2-point underdog to Grayson, ranked #4 by the AJC.

- Perennial underdog Meadowcreek won big again by setting a school scoring record in dumping Clarkston 53-14. This improves the Mustangs to 2-1, their first winning record at any point in the season since Week 3 of 2001. However, the victory barely moved the needle in the ratings for either team. Clarkston is the lowest rated team in Class AAAAA, nearly three touchdowns below Hardaway, rated the second lowest in Class AAAAA.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 34.69%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 581 of 611 total games including 1 tie(s) (95.17%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.37 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 0.25

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Colquitt County 4-0 101.49 1 Northside (Warner Robins) 3-0 79.69
2 Grayson 3-0 91.11 2 Creekside 4-0 78.64
3 McEachern 2-1 88.26 3 Ware County 3-0 77.57
4 Archer 2-1 87.22 4 Mays 3-0 73.97
5 Mill Creek 3-0 86.62 5 Stockbridge 3-0 71.10
6 North Gwinnett 2-1 84.03 6 South Paulding 3-0 71.08
7 Walton 4-0 82.99 7 Coffee 2-1 70.23
8 Peachtree Ridge 1-2 82.36 8 Gainesville 1-1 69.19
9 Norcross 3-0 81.60 9 Kell 2-1 69.04
10 Roswell 3-0 81.12 10 Allatoona 3-1 68.48
11 Tucker 2-2 77.72 11 Stephenson 2-1 67.96
12 Camden County 4-0 77.34 12 Glynn Academy 2-1 66.31
13 Valdosta 3-1 76.79 13 Houston County 3-0 65.44
14 Dacula 2-1 75.91 14 East Paulding 2-1 65.34
15 Tift County 4-0 74.16 15 Warner Robins 3-0 65.04
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 2-1 86.07 1 Calhoun 3-0 78.33
2 Cartersville 3-0 76.22 2 Blessed Trinity 3-0 75.00
3 Sandy Creek 3-1 73.10 3 Jefferson 4-0 68.83
4 Woodward Academy 3-0 72.48 4 Cedar Grove 2-1 64.09
5 Marist 2-1 71.37 5 Westside (Macon) 3-0 63.97
6 St. Pius X 1-2 65.81 6 Elbert County 3-0 61.58
7 Mary Persons 3-0 62.31 7 Central (Carrollton) 3-0 55.57
8 Thomson 3-0 61.53 8 Peach County 2-1 55.55
9 West Laurens 3-1 61.52 9 Westminster (Atlanta) 1-2 54.48
10 Bainbridge 3-0 61.41 10 Hart County 2-1 53.18
11 Thomas County Central 2-1 58.56 11 Laney 2-1 51.77
12 Burke County 3-1 58.31 12 Adairsville 3-0 50.83
13 Wayne County 2-2 56.56 13 Dodge County 3-0 50.54
14 Carrollton 0-3 56.09 14 Pierce County 2-1 49.75
15 Eastside 3-0 55.90 15 Washington County 0-3 48.88
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Benedictine 2-0 75.73 1 Eagle's Landing Christian 2-2 58.38
2 Greater Atlanta Christian 2-1 72.89 2 Mount Paran Christian 3-0 54.77
3 Fitzgerald 3-0 64.45 3 Marion County 2-0 54.22
4 Vidalia 2-1 53.58 4 Charlton County 2-0 50.61
5 Pace Academy 4-0 52.39 5 Prince Avenue Christian 3-0 50.43
6 Lovett 0-4 51.74 6 Clinch County 3-0 50.35
7 Brooks County 1-2 50.47 7 Calvary Day 2-0 47.47
8 Rabun County 3-1 50.35 8 Aquinas 2-1 45.92
9 Thomasville 0-2 49.08 9 Irwin County 1-1-1 45.41
10 Macon County 2-1 49.04 10 Lincoln County 3-0 44.12
11 Dublin 3-0 47.44 11 Landmark Christian 2-1 43.80
12 Wesleyan 3-0 46.59 12 Pacelli 3-0 40.78
13 Lamar County 1-2 46.48 13 Savannah Christian 2-1 40.27
14 Jefferson County 1-2 45.12 14 Commerce 2-1 39.73
15 Early County 1-1-1 42.80 15 Emanuel County Institute 2-1 39.39

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 4-0 101.49 59.48 54
2 [2] Grayson 8-AAAAAA 3-0 91.11 73.73 10
3 [3] McEachern 4-AAAAAA 2-1 88.26 82.06 2
4 [4] Archer 8-AAAAAA 2-1 87.22 77.72 7
5 [5] Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 3-0 86.62 63.98 32
6 [1] Buford 8-AAAA 2-1 86.07 67.00 25
7 [6] North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 2-1 84.03 79.69 4
8 [7] Walton 5-AAAAAA 4-0 82.99 66.42 26
9 [8] Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 1-2 82.36 87.74 1
10 [9] Norcross 7-AAAAAA 3-0 81.60 65.89 28
11 [10] Roswell 5-AAAAAA 3-0 81.12 63.86 34
12 [1] Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 3-0 79.69 56.17 73
13 [2] Creekside 6-Div B-AAAAA 4-0 78.64 53.51 92
14 [1] Calhoun 6-AAA 3-0 78.33 48.27 134
15 [11] Tucker 2-AAAAAA 2-2 77.72 48.49 132
16 [3] Ware County 3-AAAAA 3-0 77.57 47.53 141
17 [12] Camden County 1-AAAAAA 4-0 77.34 59.21 55
18 [13] Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 3-1 76.79 55.39 80
19 [2] Cartersville 7-AAAA 3-0 76.22 58.26 63
20 [14] Dacula 8-AAAAAA 2-1 75.91 63.36 39
21 [1] Benedictine 2-AA 2-0 75.73 57.45 67
22 [2] Blessed Trinity 4-Div B-AAA 3-0 75.00 56.55 71
23 [15] Tift County 1-AAAAAA 4-0 74.16 41.77 196
24 [4] Mays 6-Div B-AAAAA 3-0 73.97 48.97 127
25 [16] Etowah 5-AAAAAA 3-1 73.18 61.78 48
26 [3] Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 3-1 73.10 50.41 112
27 [2] Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 2-1 72.89 62.62 43
28 [17] Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 3-1 72.62 56.13 74
29 [4] Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 3-0 72.48 53.75 90
30 [18] Lee County 1-AAAAAA 3-0 72.14 43.70 183
31 [19] North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 1-3 71.66 73.20 12
32 [20] Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 2-2 71.51 75.99 8
33 [5] Marist 6-AAAA 2-1 71.37 49.60 119
34 [21] East Coweta 3-AAAAAA 3-0 71.37 55.47 79
35 [22] Newton 2-AAAAAA 4-0 71.25 50.01 115
36 [5] Stockbridge 4-Div B-AAAAA 3-0 71.10 38.19 226
37 [6] South Paulding 5-AAAAA 3-0 71.08 55.76 77
38 [23] Parkview 8-AAAAAA 3-0 70.97 55.39 81
39 [24] Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 2-2 70.83 68.69 20
40 [7] Coffee 3-AAAAA 2-1 70.23 52.39 94
41 [8] Gainesville 8-AAAAA 1-1 69.19 68.15 24
42 [9] Kell 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-1 69.04 59.18 57
43 [3] Jefferson 8-AAA 4-0 68.83 46.03 159
44 [10] Allatoona 5-AAAAA 3-1 68.48 49.59 120
45 [11] Stephenson 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-1 67.96 40.40 211
46 [25] Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 2-1 66.43 62.17 47
47 [12] Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 2-1 66.31 62.29 46
48 [26] Hughes 3-AAAAAA 0-3 66.24 81.34 3
49 [6] St. Pius X 6-AAAA 1-2 65.81 64.81 31
50 [27] Harrison 4-AAAAAA 3-1 65.65 51.13 104
51 [28] Westlake 3-AAAAAA 2-1 65.56 53.59 91
52 [13] Houston County 2-AAAAA 3-0 65.44 40.90 205
53 [14] East Paulding 5-AAAAA 2-1 65.34 65.18 30
54 [29] Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 1-2 65.27 63.66 36
55 [15] Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 3-0 65.04 32.83 268
56 [30] Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 3-1 64.79 56.82 69
57 [3] Fitzgerald 1-AA 3-0 64.45 45.26 170
58 [4] Cedar Grove 4-Div A-AAA 2-1 64.09 48.28 133
59 [31] Newnan 3-AAAAAA 2-1 64.02 62.33 45
60 [5] Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 3-0 63.97 49.48 123
61 [16] Mundy's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 2-1 63.20 58.17 64
62 [32] Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 2-1 63.16 54.98 84
63 [17] Dalton 7-Div A-AAAAA 2-1 62.67 51.10 105
64 [33] South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 1-2 62.57 69.89 17
65 [7] Mary Persons 2-AAAA 3-0 62.31 46.11 158
66 [18] Alexander 5-AAAAA 3-0 61.79 44.46 174
67 [6] Elbert County 8-AAA 3-0 61.58 46.43 155
68 [19] Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 2-1 61.57 57.79 65
69 [8] Thomson 3-AAAA 3-0 61.53 49.13 126
70 [9] West Laurens 2-AAAA 3-1 61.52 51.92 97
71 [10] Bainbridge 1-Div B-AAAA 3-0 61.41 47.97 138
72 [34] Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 0-3 61.22 79.66 5
73 [35] Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 0-3 61.00 68.16 22
74 [20] Lanier 8-AAAAA 3-0 60.94 50.00 116
75 [36] Milton 5-AAAAAA 0-3 60.39 69.41 18
76 [21] Starr's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 3-0 60.15 49.49 122
77 [22] Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 3-0 59.21 40.19 213
78 [23] Carver (Atlanta) 6-Div B-AAAAA 3-1 59.10 45.45 168
79 [24] Jones County 2-AAAAA 3-0 59.09 27.51 317
80 [37] Cherokee 5-AAAAAA 2-1 59.05 47.50 142
81 [11] Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 2-1 58.56 46.82 149
82 [1] Eagle's Landing Christian 5-A 2-2 58.38 62.97 40
83 [12] Burke County 3-AAAA 3-1 58.31 47.32 146
84 [38] Marietta 4-AAAAAA 1-3 58.29 68.16 23
85 [25] New Manchester 5-AAAAA 3-0 58.06 45.64 167
86 [39] Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 3-1 57.44 44.35 178
87 [26] Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-2 57.30 60.26 51
88 [40] South Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 3-0 56.85 39.28 219
89 [13] Wayne County 3-AAAA 2-2 56.56 49.72 118
90 [41] Lambert 6-AAAAAA 2-1 56.24 50.56 109
91 [14] Carrollton 5-AAAA 0-3 56.09 70.41 15
92 [27] Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 2-1 56.07 54.82 86
93 [15] Eastside 4-Div A-AAAA 3-0 55.90 30.10 291
94 [16] Eagle's Landing 4-Div A-AAAA 3-0 55.83 39.63 217
95 [28] Drew 4-Div A-AAAAA 2-1 55.77 41.43 198
96 [42] West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 1-2 55.61 62.60 44
97 [7] Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 3-0 55.57 30.09 292
98 [8] Peach County 2-AAA 2-1 55.55 43.23 187
99 [17] Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 3-1 55.43 50.43 111
100 [43] North Paulding 4-AAAAAA 0-4 55.26 74.02 9
101 [18] North Oconee 8-AAAA 0-2 54.77 71.43 14
102 [2] Mount Paran Christian 6-Div A-A 3-0 54.77 23.81 344
103 [19] Whitewater 5-AAAA 1-2 54.76 56.40 72
104 [29] Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-1 54.63 47.75 139
105 [30] M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-1 54.62 60.09 53
106 [31] Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 1-2 54.58 55.54 78
107 [9] Westminster (Atlanta) 4-Div B-AAA 1-2 54.48 54.90 85
108 [32] Brunswick 3-AAAAA 1-2 54.47 60.57 50
109 [44] Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 0-2 54.33 68.19 21
110 [3] Marion County 4-A 2-0 54.22 23.93 342
111 [33] Harris County 1-AAAAA 1-2 53.89 51.68 100
112 [20] Cairo 1-Div A-AAAA 0-2 53.85 61.16 49
113 [34] Creekview 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-2 53.71 66.26 27
114 [35] Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 2-0 53.65 33.05 266
115 [4] Vidalia 2-AA 2-1 53.58 39.09 220
116 [21] Griffin 4-Div B-AAAA 1-2 53.26 49.99 117
117 [10] Hart County 8-AAA 2-1 53.18 45.99 161
118 [36] Loganville 8-AAAAA 3-0 53.05 37.79 230
119 [5] Pace Academy 6-AA 4-0 52.39 40.73 206
120 [37] South Effingham 3-AAAAA 3-0 52.17 41.15 200
121 [45] South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 1-2 51.88 59.14 58
122 [46] Northview 6-AAAAAA 3-0 51.80 36.25 239
123 [11] Laney 3-AAA 2-1 51.77 41.06 202
124 [6] Lovett 6-AA 0-4 51.74 62.68 42
125 [22] Stephens County 8-AAAA 2-1 51.35 43.29 186
126 [38] Paulding County 5-AAAAA 2-1 51.31 48.05 136
127 [39] Sequoyah 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-3 51.27 72.49 13
128 [12] Adairsville 6-AAA 3-0 50.83 32.77 269
129 [40] LaGrange 1-AAAAA 2-1 50.72 45.95 162
130 [23] Locust Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 3-0 50.71 35.66 243
131 [4] Charlton County 2-A 2-0 50.61 33.28 263
132 [13] Dodge County 1-Div A-AAA 3-0 50.54 29.36 299
133 [7] Brooks County 1-AA 1-2 50.47 63.96 33
134 [5] Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 3-0 50.43 20.01 358
135 [6] Clinch County 2-A 3-0 50.35 27.54 316
136 [8] Rabun County 8-AA 3-1 50.35 40.61 208
137 [14] Pierce County 1-Div A-AAA 2-1 49.75 40.30 212
138 [24] Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 3-0 49.73 31.21 281
139 [25] Worth County 1-Div B-AAAA 1-2 49.64 59.19 56
140 [41] Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-2 49.40 54.51 88
141 [42] Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 2-1 49.17 46.55 153
142 [9] Thomasville 1-AA 0-2 49.08 69.41 19
143 [47] Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 1-2 49.06 58.35 62
144 [10] Macon County 4-AA 2-1 49.04 43.16 188
145 [43] Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 1-2 48.92 49.51 121
146 [15] Washington County 3-AAA 0-3 48.88 57.41 68
147 [26] Grady 6-AAAA 2-1 48.81 43.61 184
148 [27] North Hall 8-AAAA 1-1 48.78 55.08 83
149 [44] Salem 8-AAAAA 3-0 48.69 29.70 295
150 [48] Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 1-2 48.67 58.85 59
151 [16] Callaway 5-AAA 2-1 48.37 42.21 194
152 [28] Howard 2-AAAA 4-0 48.01 36.72 237
153 [45] Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-1 47.97 39.60 218
154 [29] Baldwin 2-AAAA 2-1 47.87 32.08 275
155 [30] Pickens 7-AAAA 2-0 47.78 33.67 256
156 [46] Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-1 47.66 41.32 199
157 [47] Effingham County 3-AAAAA 2-1 47.63 47.35 145
158 [31] Veterans 2-AAAA 1-2 47.56 54.25 89
159 [7] Calvary Day 3-Div A-A 2-0 47.47 19.68 360
160 [49] Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 1-2 47.45 50.06 114
161 [11] Dublin 3-AA 3-0 47.44 27.84 311
162 [48] Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 0-4 47.24 63.43 38
163 [32] Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 2-1 47.08 41.59 197
164 [33] Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 0-3 46.96 70.32 16
165 [34] Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 2-0 46.82 22.87 348
166 [12] Wesleyan 6-AA 3-0 46.59 27.19 321
167 [49] Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-1 46.53 37.28 232
168 [13] Lamar County 4-AA 1-2 46.48 45.99 160
169 [50] Douglas County 3-AAAAAA 0-3 46.29 55.78 76
170 [8] Aquinas 7-Div B-A 2-1 45.92 30.06 293
171 [17] Cook 1-Div A-AAA 1-2 45.80 50.44 110
172 [51] Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-3 45.73 77.75 6
173 [35] Westover 1-Div B-AAAA 0-2 45.73 63.53 37
174 [36] Columbia 6-AAAA 1-2 45.70 41.86 195
175 [9] Irwin County 2-A 1-1-1 45.41 44.37 176
176 [50] Winder-Barrow 8-AAAAA 1-2 45.19 58.79 60
177 [51] Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 1-2 45.17 47.69 140
178 [14] Jefferson County 3-AA 1-2 45.12 51.85 98
179 [18] Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 2-1 44.15 37.96 228
180 [10] Lincoln County 7-Div B-A 3-0 44.12 29.36 300
181 [11] Landmark Christian 5-A 2-1 43.80 35.15 246
182 [52] Statesboro 3-AAAAA 0-2 43.73 57.56 66
183 [19] Jackson 2-AAA 2-1 43.22 29.38 297
184 [53] Grovetown 2-AAAAA 2-1 43.20 41.06 203
185 [54] Hiram 5-AAAAA 1-2 43.14 46.71 150
186 [20] Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 2-1 43.07 44.70 173
187 [55] Evans 2-AAAAA 1-2 42.89 46.68 151
188 [52] Centennial 6-AAAAAA 0-3 42.82 63.78 35
189 [15] Early County 1-AA 1-1-1 42.80 42.27 192
190 [37] Perry 2-AAAA 1-2 42.62 50.62 108
191 [38] Liberty County 3-AAAA 2-2 42.52 40.43 210
192 [53] Duluth 7-AAAAAA 1-2 42.17 49.27 124
193 [21] Appling County 1-Div A-AAA 1-2 42.16 43.92 182
194 [56] Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 2-0 42.09 21.08 353
195 [16] Darlington 7-AA 3-0 42.08 19.06 362
196 [57] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 3-1 41.94 27.80 312
197 [17] Bacon County 2-AA 2-1 41.89 39.82 215
198 [18] Bleckley County 4-AA 1-2 41.61 50.21 113
199 [54] Pope 5-AAAAAA 0-3 41.42 58.38 61
200 [22] West Hall 7-AAA 2-1 41.33 28.77 303
201 [58] Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-1 41.31 34.36 252
202 [55] North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 1-2 40.86 49.21 125
203 [12] Pacelli 4-A 3-0 40.78 23.82 343
204 [19] Heard County 5-AA 1-2 40.69 44.39 175
205 [59] Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 2-2 40.55 38.44 223
206 [39] Lithonia 6-AAAA 2-1 40.55 25.96 335
207 [60] Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-1 40.46 35.02 248
208 [23] Pepperell 5-AAA 2-1 40.44 37.30 231
209 [40] Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 2-1 40.39 32.11 274
210 [13] Savannah Christian 3-Div A-A 2-1 40.27 27.98 309
211 [41] Troup 5-AAAA 0-3 39.90 54.52 87
212 [61] Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 0-3 39.76 56.64 70
213 [20] Screven County 3-AA 3-0 39.76 27.41 318
214 [14] Commerce 8-A 2-1 39.73 29.16 301
215 [24] Washington 4-Div B-AAA 1-2 39.62 46.40 156
216 [42] Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 1-3 39.57 48.67 131
217 [15] Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 2-1 39.39 26.49 329
218 [25] Jackson County 8-AAA 2-1 39.12 36.73 236
219 [21] Model 7-AA 4-0 39.00 27.68 314
220 [16] Hawkinsville 4-A 2-1 38.60 27.24 320
221 [43] White County 8-AAAA 0-3 38.55 46.57 152
222 [62] Shaw 1-AAAAA 1-2 38.49 45.95 163
223 [26] Central (Macon) 2-AAA 2-1 38.47 33.45 259
224 [27] Ringgold 6-AAA 1-2 38.38 41.05 204
225 [56] Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 2-1 38.25 29.56 296
226 [22] Swainsboro 3-AA 1-2 37.63 55.87 75
227 [23] Bowdon 5-AA 1-2 37.13 41.12 201
228 [17] Turner County 2-A 3-0 37.04 21.51 352
229 [18] Mount Pisgah Christian 6-Div B-A 1-2 36.99 45.87 164
230 [44] Monroe Area 8-AAAA 1-2 36.57 51.28 102
231 [24] Seminole County 1-AA 1-1 36.16 31.13 282
232 [63] Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 1-2 35.80 46.16 157
233 [19] Tattnall Square 7-Div A-A 3-0 35.58 8.23 402
234 [57] Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 0-3 35.51 52.19 96
235 [45] Gilmer 7-AAAA 1-1 35.38 28.05 307
236 [25] B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 1-2 35.19 43.03 189
237 [46] Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 0-3 35.17 73.46 11
238 [47] Fayette County 5-AAAA 0-3 34.91 50.82 106
239 [26] Union County 8-AA 3-0 34.74 11.55 386
240 [28] Morgan County 8-AAA 1-2 34.73 37.25 234
241 [20] Pinecrest Academy 6-Div B-A 2-0 34.51 20.27 355
242 [21] Dooly County 4-A 1-2 34.47 38.28 224
243 [22] Stratford Academy 7-Div A-A 1-1 34.24 33.76 255
244 [48] Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 2-1 34.23 28.17 306
245 [23] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-Div A-A 3-1 34.14 11.13 388
246 [64] McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-2 34.11 38.85 222
247 [65] Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-3 33.84 62.76 41
248 [49] Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 1-2 33.59 51.84 99
249 [50] Ridgeland 7-AAAA 1-2 33.55 35.19 245
250 [66] Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 2-1 33.47 30.36 288
251 [51] Redan 6-AAAA 2-1 33.47 28.74 304
252 [58] Rockdale County 2-AAAAAA 1-3 33.19 43.97 181
253 [24] First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 1-1 33.16 33.52 258
254 [25] Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 2-1 32.83 32.71 270
255 [29] Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 1-2 32.78 42.41 191
256 [67] Columbus 1-AAAAA 3-0 32.59 23.36 346
257 [27] Chattooga 7-AA 3-0 32.47 23.78 345
258 [28] Hapeville 6-AA 3-0 32.45 16.84 367
259 [30] Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 2-1 32.45 19.35 361
260 [52] Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 2-1 32.36 24.88 338
261 [68] Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 0-3 31.98 45.33 169
262 [29] Coosa 7-AA 1-2 31.95 40.45 209
263 [69] Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 0-3 31.90 50.62 107
264 [31] Oconee County 8-AAA 2-1 31.89 17.59 366
265 [32] Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 2-1 31.64 26.32 331
266 [70] Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 0-2 31.63 55.25 82
267 [30] Washington-Wilkes 8-AA 0-3 31.56 40.69 207
268 [33] Spencer 2-AAA 1-1 31.54 45.02 172
269 [31] Metter 3-AA 3-1 31.50 26.43 330
270 [34] Dawson County 7-AAA 1-2 31.36 35.98 240
271 [35] Sonoraville 6-AAA 2-1 31.05 25.97 334
272 [53] Chamblee 6-AAAA 1-1 30.89 30.82 285
273 [32] Pelham 1-AA 3-0 30.64 11.72 384
274 [26] Trion 6-Div A-A 3-0 30.28 9.70 397
275 [36] Maynard Jackson 4-Div A-AAA 1-2 30.17 34.89 250
276 [59] Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 2-1 30.08 33.10 265
277 [33] Putnam County 4-AA 3-1 29.96 26.89 325
278 [37] Rutland 2-AAA 1-2 29.87 45.77 165
279 [60] Campbell 3-AAAAAA 2-1 29.66 14.97 375
280 [54] Southeast Whitfield 7-AAAA 3-1 29.50 9.01 399
281 [27] Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 1-2 29.22 38.25 225
282 [34] Holy Innocents 6-AA 1-2 29.13 38.96 221
283 [71] Northside (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 1-1 28.97 25.67 336
284 [38] East Hall 7-AAA 0-2 28.79 46.93 148
285 [28] Christian Heritage 6-Div A-A 1-2 28.56 34.12 254
286 [61] Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 2-2 28.54 31.26 280
287 [72] Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-2 28.16 31.42 279
288 [39] Lumpkin County 7-AAA 1-2 27.97 31.00 283
289 [29] Johnson County 3-Div B-A 1-2 27.94 34.99 249
290 [40] Cedartown 5-AAA 0-3 27.87 40.14 214
291 [30] Claxton 3-Div A-A 1-1 27.83 26.29 333
292 [73] Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-3 27.72 44.10 180
293 [31] Greenville 4-A 2-0 27.71 7.26 405
294 [35] Berrien 1-AA 0-3 27.60 47.26 147
295 [36] Greene County 8-AA 2-1 27.51 27.99 308
296 [32] Athens Academy 8-A 3-0 27.45 1.66 412
297 [41] Westside (Augusta) 3-AAA 1-3 27.16 39.73 216
298 [42] North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 0-3 26.88 48.70 130
299 [55] Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 1-2 26.58 35.20 244
300 [74] Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 0-3 26.51 48.05 137
301 [75] Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-3 26.01 48.81 128
302 [33] Brookstone 4-A 0-2 25.63 34.79 251
303 [34] Telfair County 2-A 2-1 25.25 15.60 372
304 [43] Towers 4-Div A-AAA 0-3 25.06 44.37 177
305 [44] Franklin County 7-AAA 0-2 24.99 52.26 95
306 [37] Manchester 5-AA 1-2 24.91 33.23 264
307 [56] Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 0-3 24.91 48.08 135
308 [76] Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 1-2 24.78 51.15 103
309 [45] Fannin County 7-AAA 2-1 24.73 16.42 370
310 [62] Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 0-3 24.65 52.90 93
311 [35] Wilcox County 2-A 1-2 24.33 27.77 313
312 [36] Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 1-1 24.18 24.67 339
313 [46] Southwest 2-AAA 1-2 24.05 46.49 154
314 [38] Dade County 7-AA 2-1 23.96 33.30 262
315 [47] Banks County 7-AAA 2-1 23.80 20.26 356
316 [57] Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 2-0 23.79 8.44 400
317 [63] Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 0-3 23.57 47.47 143
318 [77] Apalachee 8-AAAAA 0-3 23.57 45.02 171
319 [78] Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-2 23.48 51.32 101
320 [79] North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-1 23.38 23.09 347
321 [58] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 1-2 23.27 35.10 247
322 [59] Chestatee 8-AAAA 0-3 23.15 42.23 193
323 [48] Rockmart 5-AAA 1-2 23.10 26.78 328
324 [39] Bremen 5-AA 0-3 23.10 37.95 229
325 [40] Jeff Davis 2-AA 3-0 22.31 3.78 409
326 [41] McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 0-3 22.09 45.71 166
327 [37] Mitchell County 1-A 1-2 21.98 26.90 324
328 [38] Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 2-1 21.95 13.20 380
329 [49] Beach 1-Div B-AAA 3-1 21.71 16.53 369
330 [42] Bryan County 2-AA 0-3 21.59 30.79 286
331 [80] North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-2 21.57 32.30 273
332 [39] Athens Christian 8-A 1-2 21.00 22.15 350
333 [50] Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 1-2 20.90 27.59 315
334 [43] Northeast 4-AA 0-3 20.84 33.31 261
335 [40] Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 1-2 20.74 30.75 287
336 [51] Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 3-0 20.66 0.24 413
337 [41] Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 0-3 20.44 37.25 233
338 [64] Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 0-4 20.03 47.46 144
339 [81] River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-3 20.02 31.70 278
340 [52] Kendrick 2-AAA 1-2 19.80 24.18 340
341 [53] Jordan 2-AAA 1-2 19.77 29.79 294
342 [60] Madison County 8-AAAA 0-3 19.65 38.05 227
343 [82] Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-3 19.35 44.12 179
344 [44] East Laurens 3-AA 3-0 19.19 10.77 392
345 [42] Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 1-2 19.19 28.50 305
346 [43] Terrell County 1-A 1-2 18.94 33.31 260
347 [45] Monticello 4-AA 0-3 18.78 34.16 253
348 [54] Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 1-2 18.56 25.43 337
349 [44] Walker 6-Div A-A 1-2 18.48 32.44 272
350 [45] George Walton Academy 8-A 0-3 18.06 36.83 235
351 [83] Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-3 18.00 43.45 185
352 [61] Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 1-3 17.90 27.86 310
353 [46] Long County 2-AA 0-2 17.77 31.82 276
354 [47] Gordon Lee 7-AA 2-2 17.76 16.71 368
355 [84] Hardaway 1-AAAAA 1-3 17.20 35.92 242
356 [46] Taylor County 4-A 0-3 16.86 27.31 319
357 [55] North Murray 6-AAA 0-3 16.52 29.00 302
358 [47] Atkinson County 2-A 1-2 15.97 18.71 364
359 [48] King's Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 0-2 15.03 30.28 290
360 [56] Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 0-3 14.95 31.75 277
361 [49] Treutlen 3-Div B-A 2-1 14.27 13.97 379
362 [48] Chattahoochee County 5-AA 1-1 14.17 11.41 387
363 [50] Miller County 1-A 0-3 13.88 42.68 190
364 [57] Murray County 6-AAA 1-1 13.86 27.12 322
365 [62] Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 0-3 12.79 29.37 298
366 [58] Haralson County 5-AAA 0-2 12.66 30.92 284
367 [59] Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 1-3 12.16 36.32 238
368 [60] Hephzibah 3-AAA 1-1 11.99 5.14 406
369 [51] Randolph-Clay 1-A 2-2 11.74 21.90 351
370 [63] New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 2-1 11.64 22.79 349
371 [52] Warren County 7-Div B-A 2-2 11.64 15.35 373
372 [61] Glenn Hills 3-AAA 0-3 11.55 60.20 52
373 [53] Jenkins County 3-Div A-A 1-2 11.27 10.31 396
374 [62] Josey 3-AAA 2-1 11.18 11.13 389
375 [54] Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 2-1 11.09 10.96 390
376 [55] Central (Talbotton) 4-A 2-1 10.08 11.95 383
377 [64] LaFayette 7-AAAA 1-2 9.89 14.69 376
378 [63] McNair 4-Div A-AAA 0-3 9.70 24.00 341
379 [65] Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-3 9.03 48.73 129
380 [56] Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 1-2 8.56 18.87 363
381 [64] South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 0-3 8.55 30.34 289
382 [49] Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 0-2 8.40 26.95 323
383 [65] Butler 3-AAA 1-1 8.06 10.93 391
384 [57] Portal 3-Div A-A 0-3 6.22 20.76 354
385 [50] Crawford County 4-AA† 3-1 6.05 -4.81 416
386 [66] East Jackson 8-AAA 1-2 5.66 11.70 385
387 [58] Calhoun County 1-A 0-4 5.13 26.85 326
388 [51] Harlem 3-AA 0-3 4.79 26.31 332
389 [59] Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 1-1 4.71 10.73 394
390 [60] Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 0-2 4.38 33.57 257
391 [61] Strong Rock Christian 5-A 0-3 4.22 19.95 359
392 [66] Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-3 3.91 65.55 29
393 [62] Lanier County 2-A 0-2 3.13 26.81 327
394 [52] Social Circle 8-AA 2-0 2.88 1.69 411
395 [63] Schley County 4-A 0-2 2.36 12.88 382
396 [53] Armuchee 7-AA 1-3 1.71 20.07 357
397 [67] Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 1-2 1.40 10.74 393
398 [64] North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 2-1 0.68 0.07 414
399 [67] Islands 1-Div B-AAA 1-1 0.35 15.03 374
400 [54] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 0-3 0.09 18.62 365
401 [65] Lakeview Academy 8-A 1-2 0.09 -0.29 415
402 [55] Oglethorpe County 8-AA 0-3 -0.59 35.98 241
403 [56] Temple 5-AA 1-2 -0.84 3.50 410
404 [66] St. Francis 6-Div B-A 1-1 -1.31 -13.12 417
405 [68] Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 1-2 -1.81 7.37 404
406 [57] Groves 2-AA 0-3 -1.89 4.64 407
407 [67] Baconton 1-A 1-3 -1.96 14.33 378
408 [85] Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 0-4 -3.77 33.00 267
409 [68] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 1-3 -3.79 4.30 408
410 [69] Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 0-3 -4.14 13.17 381
411 [70] Towns County 8-A 1-2 -4.37 7.67 403
412 [69] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 0-3 -4.82 16.38 371
413 [70] Gordon Central 6-AAA 0-3 -6.97 32.68 271
414 [71] Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 0-4 -13.71 14.43 377
415 [72] Stewart County 1-A† 0-3 -22.88 8.24 401
416 [68] Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 0-2 -23.48 10.67 395
417 [73] Providence Christian 8-A 0-2 -26.83 9.46 398
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAA 95.57 77.98
2 7 - AAAAAA 88.70 66.55
3 8 - AAAAAA 87.35 68.06
4 5 - AAAAAA 83.58 66.08
5 4 - AAAAAA 80.99 64.92
6 2 - AAAAAA 76.12 49.73
7 5 - AAAA 74.80 55.32
8 3 - AAAAAA 73.22 54.96
9 3 - AAAAA 73.06 53.35
10 5 - AAAAA 71.79 53.55
11 6 - AAAAA 71.58 52.72
6 - Div B - AAAAA 80.10 60.73
6 - Div A - AAAAA 62.83 46.87
12 2 - AAAAA 70.76 49.09
13 4 - AAAAA 66.41 46.96
4 - Div A - AAAAA 66.49 46.26
4 - Div B - AAAAA 66.29 47.53
14 2 - AAAA 66.33 50.74
15 8 - AAA 64.98 43.09
16 6 - AAAAAA 64.70 48.14
17 3 - AAAA 64.43 49.33
18 8 - AAAAA 64.15 45.89
19 7 - AAAAA 64.10 45.44
7 - Div A - AAAAA 64.80 47.27
7 - Div B - AAAAA 63.25 43.57
20 8 - AAAA 63.44 43.26
21 6 - AAAA 62.71 43.91
22 6 - AA 62.19 41.05
23 1 - AAAA 61.77 43.94
1 - Div B - AAAA 61.88 44.42
1 - Div A - AAAA 61.65 43.41
24 1 - AA 60.70 42.65
25 1 - AAAAA 59.95 40.58
26 4 - AAAA 59.35 40.12
4 - Div A - AAAA 59.79 39.82
4 - Div B - AAAA 58.90 40.38
27 4 - AAA 58.36 32.59
4 - Div B - AAA 64.91 41.19
4 - Div A - AAA 48.36 24.95
28 7 - AAAA 57.73 36.68
29 2 - AA 56.56 28.83
30 2 - AAA 55.83 35.08
31 5 - AAA 54.45 34.70
32 5 - A 53.23 26.88
33 2 - A 52.06 32.15
34 6 - AAA 51.64 20.71
35 3 - AA 50.96 33.60
36 1 - AAA 50.31 31.32
1 - Div A - AAA 55.77 39.38
1 - Div B - AAA 39.91 20.44
37 4 - AA 50.17 34.62
38 4 - A 47.55 28.06
39 3 - AAA 46.84 21.95
40 7 - AA 45.00 27.95
41 7 - A 44.07 27.18
7 - Div A - A 44.15 28.55
7 - Div B - A 43.96 24.87
42 7 - AAA 43.76 28.82
43 8 - AA 43.72 22.10
44 6 - A 43.60 26.78
6 - Div A - A 47.88 32.38
6 - Div B - A 39.40 21.85
45 5 - AA 42.06 23.80
46 3 - A 41.88 21.13
3 - Div A - A 45.41 25.19
3 - Div B - A 36.91 15.98
47 8 - A 39.65 15.95
48 1 - A 25.28 11.78

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/28 Southeast Whitfield Murray County 21 - 35 15.88 83.0% 0.213
08/28 Sandy Creek Jonesboro 15 - 17 17.92 85.7% 0.232
09/11 Alpharetta Johns Creek 39 - 42 14.24 80.6% 0.280
09/11 Northwest Whitfield Southeast Whitfield 12 - 21 10.65 74.4% 0.314
09/03 Lovejoy Dutchtown 12 - 20 8.22 69.5% 0.360
09/04 Pierce County Bacon County 40 - 41 7.61 68.1% 0.396
09/11 Macon County Perry 33 - 34 6.66 66.1% 0.410
09/04 Schley County Baconton 7 - 21 4.56 61.2% 0.414
09/11 McEachern Peachtree Ridge 6 - 9 5.65 63.8% 0.419
08/28 Richmond Academy Westside (Augusta) 20 - 27 4.99 62.2% 0.420
09/04 Gilmer Dawson County 9 - 23 4.27 60.5% 0.420
09/04 Morgan County Putnam County 10 - 13 5.02 62.3% 0.429
09/11 Lakeview Academy Towns County 21 - 25 4.71 61.6% 0.432
08/21 Laney Dublin 0 - 3 4.58 61.3% 0.436
09/04 Rockdale County Meadowcreek 18 - 43 2.86 57.1% 0.438

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
88.74 09/11 Grayson Archer 26 - 24 4.14 60.2%
87.02 09/04 McEachern Buford 37 - 14 2.43 56.1%
86.28 08/22 Colquitt County North Gwinnett 45 - 14 17.46 85.1%
85.19 09/25 Mill Creek North Gwinnett - 2.33 55.8%
84.52 09/11 McEachern Peachtree Ridge 6 - 9 5.65 63.8%
84.14 08/29 Archer Peachtree Ridge 26 - 10 5.11 62.5%
83.99 11/06 Mill Creek Peachtree Ridge - 4.51 61.1%
83.43 10/30 Mill Creek Norcross - 5.26 62.9%
83.10 10/09 North Gwinnett Peachtree Ridge - 1.92 54.8%
82.70 10/02 North Gwinnett Norcross - 2.18 55.4%
81.99 10/02 Walton Roswell - 1.62 54.0%
81.98 10/23 Peachtree Ridge Norcross - 0.51 51.3%
80.36 08/22 McEachern Tucker 50 - 14 10.54 74.1%
78.95 11/06 Colquitt County Camden County - 23.90 91.6%
78.68 10/30 Archer Dacula - 11.06 75.1%