Sports

Maxwell Week 1 Summary: Buford, Sandy Creek, Griffin are top 10 in all-class rankings

By Todd Holcomb
Aug 26, 2014

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2014 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results after Week One:

- Norcross remains the No. 1 team in all classifications.

- Three Class AAAA teams - Buford, Sandy Creek and Griffin - are in the top 10, and each is ranked higher than any team in AAAAA, the second-highest classification.

- This week's report includes a ranking of the regions. Region 1-AAAAAA comes out on top.

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 78.9%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 93 of 96 total games including 2 ties (97.9%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 11.56 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

Home Advantage: -1.99

Rank Class Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rnk
1 1 Norcross 7-AAAAAA 1-0 95.62 82.86 6
2 1 Buford 8-AAAA 1-0 94.15 - -
3 2 North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 1-0 93.71 83.73 5
4 3 Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 1-0 91.07 77.90 13
5 2 Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 1-0 89.01 76.54 15
6 4 Camden County 1-AAAAAA 1-0 88.28 - -
7 5 Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 1-0 84.50 75.12 21
8 6 McEachern 4-AAAAAA 0-1 83.73 93.71 2
9 3 Griffin 4-Div B-AAAA 0-0 83.48 - -
10 7 Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 0-0 83.16 - -
11 8 Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 1-0 82.99 60.14 49
12 9 Tucker 2-AAAAAA 0-1 82.86 95.62 1
13 1 Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 1-0 82.60 74.36 24
14 2 Kell 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 81.98 75.06 22
15 10 Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 1-0 81.57 69.86 30
16 11 Dacula 8-AAAAAA 1-0 80.48 75.97 16
17 3 Gainesville 8-AAAAA 0-0 79.91 - -
18 12 Grayson 8-AAAAAA 0-0 79.54 - -
19 1 Washington County 3-AAA 0-0 79.46 - -
20 13 Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 0-0 78.51 - -
21 14 Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 0-1 77.90 91.07 3
22 15 Walton 5-AAAAAA 1-0 77.64 70.69 29
23 4 Ware County 3-AAAAA 1-0 77.36 65.45 37
24 5 Creekside 6-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 77.03 59.51 52
25 16 Hughes 3-AAAAAA 1-0 76.59 60.00 51
26 17 Archer 8-AAAAAA 0-1 76.54 89.01 4
27 2 Calhoun 6-AAA 0-0 75.44 - -
28 4 Carrollton 5-AAAA 0-1 75.06 81.98 8
29 18 Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 0-1 73.98 78.49 12
30 5 Marist 6-AAAA 0-0 73.96 - -
32 19 Etowah 5-AAAAAA 1-0 73.92 66.17 35
31 6 Burke County 3-AAAA 1-0 73.92 62.09 43
33 1 Lovett 6-AA 1-0 73.82 33.05 133
34 20 Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 0-0 73.27 - -
35 21 Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 0-1 73.13 82.51 7
36 6 Coffee 3-AAAAA 1-0 73.02 56.63 59
37 22 North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 0-1 72.37 80.61 11
38 7 Stephenson 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 72.11 47.82 94
39 7 Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 0-0 71.30 - -
40 8 Allatoona 5-AAAAA 1-0 71.17 66.90 32
41 23 West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 0-0 71.14 - -
42 24 North Paulding 4-AAAAAA 1-0 70.73 52.00 75
43 8 St. Pius X 6-AAAA 0-0 70.58 - -
44 25 Milton 5-AAAAAA 0-0 70.39 - -
45 9 Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 0-0 70.36 - -
46 26 Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 0-1 69.86 81.57 9
47 10 M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 0-0 68.82 - -
48 27 South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 0-1 68.70 75.65 19
49 28 Parkview 8-AAAAAA 0-0 68.32 - -
50 29 Marietta 4-AAAAAA 0-1 68.16 75.91 18
51 2 Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 1-0 67.96 60.48 47
52 30 Newnan 3-AAAAAA 0-0 66.81 - -
53 9 Whitewater 5-AAAA 0-0 66.76 - -
54 11 Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 0-0 66.55 - -
55 12 Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 1-0 66.34 52.82 69
56 31 Tift County 1-AAAAAA 1-0 66.09 28.11 145
57 10 Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 0-0 65.27 - -
58 11 Monroe Area 8-AAAA 0-0 65.16 - -
59 13 East Paulding 5-AAAAA 0-1 64.91 69.18 31
60 32 East Coweta 3-AAAAAA 0-0 64.85 - -
61 3 Blessed Trinity 4-Div B-AAA 0-0 64.57 - -
62 14 Brunswick 3-AAAAA 1-0 64.47 38.33 120
63 12 Cartersville 7-AAAA 0-0 64.27 - -
64 4 Callaway 5-AAA 1-0 64.09 52.52 73
65 15 Statesboro 3-AAAAA 0-1 64.08 75.91 17
66 5 Jefferson 8-AAA 1-0 63.69 32.80 134
67 3 Brooks County 1-AA 0-1 63.46 75.37 20
68 33 Harrison 4-AAAAAA 1-0 63.20 48.27 91
69 16 Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 1-0 62.76 56.26 60
70 17 Stockbridge 4-Div B-AAAAA 0-1 62.70 - -
71 34 Lee County 1-AAAAAA 1-0 62.06 52.69 70
72 13 North Hall 8-AAAA 0-0 62.01 - -
73 18 Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 0-0 61.77 - -
74 19 South Paulding 5-AAAAA 1-0 61.47 44.91 106
75 35 Cherokee 5-AAAAAA 1-0 61.31 50.75 82
76 36 Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 1-0 60.91 48.08 92
77 37 Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 0-0 60.77 - -
78 20 Harris County 1-AAAAA 0-0 60.69 - -
79 38 Newton 2-AAAAAA 1-0 60.31 48.63 89
80 39 Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 1-0 60.17 27.86 146
81 21 Dalton 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 60.16 - -
82 22 Mays 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-1 60.00 76.59 14
83 14 Cairo 1-Div A-AAAA 0-0 59.46 - -
84 15 Thomson 3-AAAA 1-0 59.27 48.97 88
85 6 Cedar Grove 4-Div A-AAA 0-0 58.80 - -
86 23 Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 0-0 58.58 - -
87 4 Benedictine 2-AA 0-1 58.49 65.97 36
88 7 Ringgold 6-AAA 1-0 58.24 49.04 86
89 40 Roswell 5-AAAAAA 0-1 58.15 81.00 10
90 16 Mary Persons 2-AAAA 0-0 58.14 - -
91 5 Lamar County 4-AA 0-0-1 57.99 27.04 150
92 41 South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 0-1 57.52 75.04 23
93 42 Westlake 3-AAAAAA 0-0 57.35 - -
94 43 Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 0-0 56.72 - -
95 17 North Oconee 8-AAAA 0-1 56.63 73.02 26
96 8 Westminster (Atlanta) 4-Div B-AAA 0-0 56.59 - -
97 24 Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 56.58 36.95 126
98 9 Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 0-0 56.43 - -
99 6 Fitzgerald 1-AA 1-0 56.17 39.28 116
100 18 Troup 5-AAAA 0-0 55.84 - -
101 25 Houston County 2-AAAAA 0-0 55.55 - -
102 10 Peach County 2-AAA 0-0 55.46 - -
103 19 Bainbridge 1-Div B-AAAA 0-0 55.40 - -
104 44 North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 0-0 55.06 - -
105 26 Lanier 8-AAAAA 1-0 55.02 51.38 77
106 27 Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 1-0 54.72 51.82 76
107 28 New Manchester 5-AAAAA 1-0 54.62 47.14 99
108 11 Hart County 8-AAA 0-0 54.56 - -
109 12 Elbert County 8-AAA 0-0 54.45 - -
110 7 Washington-Wilkes 8-AA 0-0 54.37 - -
111 20 Wayne County 3-AAAA 0-1 54.27 60.77 46
112 21 Grady 6-AAAA 1-0 54.26 45.61 102
113 29 Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-0 54.16 - -
116 13 Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 1-0 54.07 43.08 110
115 8 Vidalia 2-AA 1-0 54.07 29.81 140
114 30 Mundy's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-0 54.07 - -
117 31 Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 0-0 54.05 - -
118 14 Laney 3-AAA 1-0 53.94 38.57 119
119 32 Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 53.81 56.71 58
120 33 Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 0-1 53.80 - -
121 45 Lambert 6-AAAAAA 0-1 53.37 57.01 57
122 9 Heard County 5-AA 0-0 53.16 - -
123 22 White County 8-AAAA 0-0 53.14 - -
124 34 Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 52.96 42.52 111
125 35 Carver (Atlanta) 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-1 52.82 66.34 34
126 46 Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 0-1 52.74 63.30 39
127 23 Veterans 2-AAAA 0-0 52.68 - -
128 36 Sequoyah 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-0 52.17 - -
129 37 Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 52.02 46.91 100
130 38 Creekview 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 52.00 70.73 28
131 15 Cook 1-Div A-AAA 0-0 51.95 - -
132 24 Chestatee 8-AAAA 0-0 51.94 - -
133 39 Jones County 2-AAAAA 0-0 51.78 - -
134 47 Centennial 6-AAAAAA 0-0 51.71 - -
135 25 Gilmer 7-AAAA 0-0 51.56 - -
136 1 Aquinas 7-Div B-A 1-0 51.51 25.62 152
137 48 Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 0-0 51.37 - -
138 40 McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 51.32 36.32 129
139 26 Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 0-1 51.03 60.23 48
140 41 Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 0-1 50.98 52.58 72
141 42 Alexander 5-AAAAA 0-0 50.95 - -
142 27 Westover 1-Div B-AAAA 0-1 50.70 60.07 50
143 28 Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 0-0 50.61 - -
144 49 Rockdale County 2-AAAAAA 1-0 50.59 48.98 87
145 43 LaGrange 1-AAAAA 0-1 50.53 62.10 42
146 50 Duluth 7-AAAAAA 0-1 50.07 62.90 40
147 2 Eagle's Landing Christian 5-A 0-1 50.00 50.76 81
148 16 Appling County 1-Div A-AAA 0-0 49.86 - -
149 29 Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 0-1 49.82 74.10 25
150 51 Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 1-0 49.63 48.56 90
151 52 Campbell 3-AAAAAA 1-0 49.20 13.96 169
152 30 Perry 2-AAAA 1-0 49.17 44.47 107
153 31 Eastside 4-Div A-AAAA 0-0 49.13 - -
154 44 Starr's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-0 49.10 - -
155 45 Effingham County 3-AAAAA 1-0 49.00 39.48 115
156 32 Columbia 6-AAAA 0-1 48.90 54.01 66
157 3 Mount Paran Christian 6-Div A-A 1-0 48.77 48.00 93
158 33 Baldwin 2-AAAA 0-0 48.36 - -
159 17 Cedartown 5-AAA 0-0 48.25 - -
160 46 Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 48.10 25.36 153
161 53 Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 0-0 48.06 - -
162 34 Stephens County 8-AAAA 0-0 47.91 - -
163 47 Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 47.88 28.62 144
164 18 Pierce County 1-Div A-AAA 0-0 47.76 - -
165 48 Loganville 8-AAAAA 0-0 47.55 - -
166 4 Calvary Day 3-Div A-A 1-0 47.51 12.64 170
167 35 West Laurens 2-AAAA 1-0 47.45 45.25 105
168 49 Evans 2-AAAAA 1-0 47.35 25.79 151
169 10 Thomasville 1-AA 0-1 47.24 49.44 85
170 5 Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 0-0 47.11 - -
171 11 Jefferson County 3-AA 0-1 46.98 57.28 56
172 50 Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-0 46.91 - -
173 54 Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-1 46.63 58.32 54
174 55 South Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 0-1 46.57 47.64 96
175 36 Eagle's Landing 4-Div A-AAAA 0-0 46.55 - -
176 37 Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 0-1 46.46 51.16 78
177 56 Pope 5-AAAAAA 0-1 46.27 61.21 45
178 57 Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 0-0 46.23 - -
179 6 Marion County 4-A 0-0 46.22 - -
180 19 Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 0-0 46.19 - -
181 51 Drew 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-0 45.90 - -
182 20 Dodge County 1-Div A-AAA 1-0 45.67 39.57 114
183 21 Adairsville 6-AAA 1-0 45.57 38.12 122
184 38 Chamblee 6-AAAA 0-0 45.48 - -
185 52 Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 0-0 45.31 - -
186 53 Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 45.29 28.69 143
187 12 Early County 1-AA 0-0-1 45.28 41.24 113
188 58 Douglas County 3-AAAAAA 0-1 45.15 52.63 71
189 7 Lincoln County 7-Div B-A 1-0 45.10 - -
190 8 Landmark Christian 5-A 1-0 44.87 22.40 156
191 59 Northview 6-AAAAAA 0-0 44.62 - -
192 9 Savannah Christian 3-Div A-A 1-0 44.11 33.50 132
193 54 Hiram 5-AAAAA 0-0 43.81 - -
194 39 Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 0-0 43.74 - -
195 13 Seminole County 1-AA 0-0 43.71 - -
196 22 Washington 4-Div B-AAA 0-1 43.62 52.27 74
197 40 Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 0-0 43.46 - -
198 60 Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 0-0 43.28 - -
199 10 Irwin County 2-A 0-0-1 43.23 47.27 97
200 11 Charlton County 2-A 0-0 43.21 - -
201 55 Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-0 43.13 - -
202 14 Bowdon 5-AA 0-1 43.08 54.07 65
203 56 Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 0-1 42.92 59.48 53
204 12 Dooly County 4-A 0-0 42.52 - -
205 41 Locust Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 0-0 42.24 - -
206 15 Bleckley County 4-AA 0-1 41.56 47.66 95
207 42 Liberty County 3-AAAA 0-1 41.47 50.99 79
208 13 Stratford Academy 7-Div A-A 0-0 41.39 - -
209 57 Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 0-0 41.36 - -
210 43 Worth County 1-Div B-AAAA 0-1 41.27 58.16 55
211 44 Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 0-0 41.14 - -
212 45 Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 0-1 40.90 - -
213 58 South Effingham 3-AAAAA 0-0 40.80 - -
214 16 Dublin 3-AA 0-1 40.56 55.93 63
215 59 Shaw 1-AAAAA 0-1 40.53 50.97 80
216 23 Morgan County 8-AAA 0-0 40.35 - -
217 17 McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 0-1 40.33 66.46 33
218 14 Clinch County 2-A 1-0 40.30 8.27 177
219 60 Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-0 40.12 - -
220 61 Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 39.97 33.94 131
221 62 Salem 8-AAAAA 0-0 39.73 - -
222 15 Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 0-0 39.52 - -
223 16 Tattnall Square 7-Div A-A 0-0 39.36 - -
224 24 Dawson County 7-AAA 0-0 39.31 - -
225 17 Brookstone 4-A 1-0 39.30 34.06 130
226 18 Northeast 4-AA 0-0 39.21 - -
227 46 Pickens 7-AAAA 0-0 39.13 - -
228 18 Wilcox County 2-A 0-0 39.12 - -
229 63 Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 1-0 38.99 11.93 171
230 19 Bremen 5-AA 0-0 38.94 - -
231 47 Lithonia 6-AAAA 0-0 38.88 - -
232 64 Paulding County 5-AAAAA 0-0 38.57 - -
233 20 Manchester 5-AA 0-0 38.54 - -
234 21 Metter 3-AA 1-0 38.50 30.70 137
235 19 George Walton Academy 8-A 0-0 38.34 - -
236 48 Fayette County 5-AAAA 0-1 38.31 53.31 68
237 65 Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 0-0 37.79 - -
238 25 Rutland 2-AAA 0-0 37.68 - -
239 22 Wesleyan 6-AA 1-0 37.29 18.88 162
240 49 Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 0-0 37.17 - -
241 23 Darlington 7-AA 0-1 36.91 - -
242 26 West Hall 7-AAA 0-0 36.84 - -
243 66 Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-0 36.62 10.21 174
244 20 Johnson County 3-Div B-A 0-0 36.45 - -
245 21 Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 0-0 36.38 - -
246 67 Apalachee 8-AAAAA 0-0 36.29 - -
247 50 Ridgeland 7-AAAA 0-1 36.13 43.57 108
248 68 Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 0-0 35.93 - -
249 22 Hawkinsville 4-A 0-0 35.74 - -
250 51 Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-0 35.50 - -
251 23 Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 0-0 35.40 - -
252 69 Hardaway 1-AAAAA 0-1 34.96 54.59 64
253 24 Athens Academy 8-A 1-0 34.68 -7.97 188
254 25 First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 0-0 34.65 - -
255 27 North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 0-0 34.25 - -
256 24 Macon County 4-AA 0-0 34.22 - -
257 70 Grovetown 2-AAAAA 0-0 34.19 - -
258 28 Pepperell 5-AAA 0-0 34.00 - -
260 30 Jackson County 8-AAA 0-0 33.82 - -
259 29 Rockmart 5-AAA 0-0 33.82 - -
261 25 Screven County 3-AA 1-0 33.60 - -
262 26 Model 7-AA 1-0 33.20 27.46 147
263 61 Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 1-0 33.20 22.18 157
264 31 East Hall 7-AAA 0-0 32.79 - -
265 26 Commerce 8-A 0-0 32.35 - -
266 32 Kendrick 2-AAA 1-0 32.13 -18.70 191
267 27 Mount Pisgah Christian 6-Div B-A 0-1 32.07 37.31 124
268 33 Jackson 2-AAA 0-0 32.03 - -
269 52 Madison County 8-AAAA 1-0 32.02 17.06 164
270 27 Holy Innocents 6-AA 0-1 31.95 37.98 123
271 53 Maynard Jackson 4-Div A-AAA 0-0 31.91 - -
272 34 Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 0-0 31.89 - -
273 28 Swainsboro 3-AA 0-1 31.80 56.06 61
274 29 Bacon County 2-AA 0-0 31.73 - -
275 71 Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 0-0 31.63 - -
276 30 B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 0-0 31.55 - -
277 35 Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 0-1 31.51 42.12 112
279 29 Trion 6-Div A-A 1-0 31.50 20.29 160
278 28 Taylor County 4-A 0-0 31.50 - -
280 72 Winder-Barrow 8-AAAAA 0-0 31.47 - -
281 73 Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-0 31.46 - -
282 74 Northside (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 0-0 31.39 - -
283 75 Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 0-0 31.24 - -
284 31 Pace Academy 6-AA 0-1 31.06 71.83 27
285 32 Rabun County 8-AA 0-1 30.81 61.70 44
286 30 Turner County 2-A 1-0 30.77 16.93 165
287 36 Towers 4-Div A-AAA 0-1 30.61 49.87 84
288 37 Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 0-0 30.15 - -
289 31 Mitchell County 1-A 0-0 30.03 - -
290 76 River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-1 29.85 62.16 41
291 38 Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 0-0 29.81 - -
292 32 Claxton 3-Div A-A 0-0 29.62 - -
293 77 Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 0-0 29.44 - -
294 33 Dade County 7-AA 0-0 29.43 - -
295 54 Southeast Whitfield 7-AAAA 1-0 29.16 4.10 182
296 34 Bryan County 2-AA 0-1 28.71 36.51 128
297 55 Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 0-0 28.70 - -
298 39 Glenn Hills 3-AAA 0-1 27.61 53.50 67
299 35 Coosa 7-AA 0-1 27.35 50.09 83
300 56 Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 0-0 27.24 - -
301 33 Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 0-0 26.78 - -
302 62 Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 0-1 26.70 43.30 109
303 57 Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 0-1 26.12 64.10 38
304 40 Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 0-0 25.94 - -
305 41 Oconee County 8-AAA 0-0 25.83 - -
306 34 Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 0-0 25.54 - -
307 42 Lumpkin County 7-AAA 0-1 25.47 31.21 135
308 36 Putnam County 4-AA 1-0 25.18 -5.08 187
309 78 Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 1-0 25.13 5.32 180
310 58 Howard 2-AAAA 0-0-1 25.05 56.00 62
311 43 Spencer 2-AAA 0-0 24.70 - -
312 63 Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 0-0 24.68 - -
313 35 Christian Heritage 6-Div A-A 0-1 24.39 46.86 101
314 37 Pelham 1-AA 0-0 24.26 - -
315 36 Miller County 1-A 0-0 24.09 - -
316 44 Westside (Augusta) 3-AAA 0-1 23.80 45.36 104
317 38 Berrien 1-AA 0-0 23.67 - -
318 37 King's Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 0-0 23.52 - -
319 45 Beach 1-Div B-AAA 1-0 23.33 15.68 166
320 79 Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-0 23.07 - -
321 46 McNair 4-Div A-AAA 0-0 22.93 - -
322 80 Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-0 22.87 - -
323 47 Sonoraville 6-AAA 0-0 22.75 - -
324 48 Franklin County 7-AAA 0-0 22.45 - -
325 59 Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 0-0 22.08 - -
326 49 Haralson County 5-AAA 0-0 21.71 - -
327 50 North Murray 6-AAA 0-0 21.70 - -
328 38 Walker 6-Div A-A 0-1 20.88 39.28 117
329 39 Union County 8-AA 0-0 20.78 - -
330 39 Pinecrest Academy 6-Div B-A 0-0 20.72 - -
331 51 Central (Macon) 2-AAA 0-0 20.49 - -
332 60 Redan 6-AAAA 0-1 20.19 31.21 136
333 61 LaFayette 7-AAAA 0-0 20.19 - -
334 40 Athens Christian 8-A 0-1 20.00 14.93 167
335 64 Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 0-0 19.93 - -
336 52 Fannin County 7-AAA 0-0 19.66 - -
337 41 Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 0-0 19.41 - -
338 42 Telfair County 2-A 0-0 19.30 - -
339 81 Columbus 1-AAAAA 1-0 19.18 8.19 178
340 43 Pacelli 4-A 0-0 19.11 - -
341 44 Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-Div A-A 1-0 18.75 5.12 181
342 82 North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 0-0 18.44 - -
343 45 Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 0-1 18.41 - -
344 40 Gordon Lee 7-AA 0-1 18.30 29.51 141
345 41 East Laurens 3-AA 0-0 18.10 - -
346 42 Monticello 4-AA 0-0 17.92 - -
347 53 Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 0-1 17.67 25.32 154
348 46 Treutlen 3-Div B-A 0-0 17.43 - -
349 47 Greenville 4-A 0-0 17.22 - -
351 54 Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 0-0 17.13 - -
350 43 Chattooga 7-AA 0-0 17.13 - -
352 48 Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 1-0 16.96 0.91 184
353 44 Long County 2-AA 0-0 16.46 - -
354 49 Randolph-Clay 1-A 1-0 16.10 10.76 172
355 50 Portal 3-Div A-A 0-0 16.07 - -
356 55 Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 0-0 15.53 - -
357 62 Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 0-0 15.44 - -
358 63 Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 0-1 15.07 30.03 139
359 51 Terrell County 1-A 0-1 14.94 28.78 142
360 45 Jeff Davis 2-AA 0-0 14.21 - -
361 64 Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 0-0 13.63 - -
362 46 Greene County 8-AA 0-0 13.61 - -
363 56 Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 0-0 13.50 - -
364 47 Groves 2-AA 0-0 13.39 - -
365 83 Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 0-0 13.13 - -
366 65 Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 0-0 12.97 - -
367 57 Butler 3-AAA 0-0 12.96 - -
368 52 Strong Rock Christian 5-A 1-0 12.94 18.01 163
369 58 Banks County 7-AAA 0-0 12.86 - -
370 59 Southwest 2-AAA 0-0 12.75 - -
371 53 Atkinson County 2-A 1-0 12.53 9.22 175
372 60 Hephzibah 3-AAA 0-0 12.37 - -
373 84 North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 0-1 12.20 38.61 118
374 61 South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 0-1 11.97 47.21 98
375 48 Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 0-0 11.92 - -
376 54 Schley County 4-A 0-0 11.64 - -
377 66 Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-0 10.79 - -
378 67 New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 0-1 10.65 45.52 103
379 55 Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 0-0 10.48 - -
380 56 Jenkins County 3-Div A-A 1-0 10.46 1.90 183
381 62 Jordan 2-AAA 0-1 10.18 21.17 158
382 85 Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 0-1 9.94 37.00 125
383 68 Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 0-0 9.20 - -
384 49 Chattahoochee County 5-AA 0-0 9.12 - -
385 57 Lanier County 2-A 0-1 8.77 14.10 168
386 58 Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 0-0 8.65 - -
387 50 Harlem 3-AA 0-1 7.31 27.12 149
388 63 Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 0-1 7.22 10.54 173
389 51 Temple 5-AA 0-1 7.11 20.74 159
390 52 Hapeville 6-AA 0-0 6.91 - -
391 59 Calhoun County 1-A 0-1 6.28 38.31 121
392 60 St. Francis 6-Div B-A 0-0 4.82 - -
393 53 Oglethorpe County 8-AA 0-0 4.64 - -
394 61 Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 1-0 3.80 0.87 185
395 62 Lakeview Academy 8-A 0-0 3.28 - -
396 54 Armuchee 7-AA 0-1 2.90 18.95 161
397 64 East Jackson 8-AAA 0-1 2.86 5.79 179
398 65 Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 0-1 2.11 27.17 148
399 66 Josey 3-AAA 0-0 0.57 - -
400 63 Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 0-1 -0.09 8.47 176
401 64 Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 0-0 -0.45 - -
402 55 Crawford County 4-AA† 1-0 -0.69 -9.56 190
403 67 Islands 1-Div B-AAA 0-0 -1.36 - -
404 65 Towns County 8-A 0-0 -2.54 - -
405 68 Gordon Central 6-AAA 0-0 -5.74 - -
406 66 Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 0-1 -5.98 36.67 127
407 67 Warren County 7-Div B-A 0-1 -7.07 23.19 155
408 56 K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 0-0 -9.25 - -
409 68 Baconton 1-A 1-0 -10.84 -19.09 192
410 69 Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 0-1 -11.55 -2.68 186
411 69 Murray County 6-AAA 0-0 -14.38 - -
412 70 Central (Talbotton) 4-A 0-1 -17.10 -8.85 189
413 57 Social Circle 8-AA 0-0 -17.82 - -
414 71 Stewart County 1-A† 0-1 -20.70 30.14 138
415 69 Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 0-0 -22.82 - -
416 72 North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 0-0 -25.89 - -
417 73 Providence Christian 8-A 0-0 -30.72 - -
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Rating Average Rating
1 1-AAAAAA 95.77 79.17
2 7-AAAAAA 93.12 70.70
3 4-AAAAAA 85.44 70.30
4 8-AAAAAA 84.34 67.93
5 5-AAAA 84.87 65.49
6 5-AAAAAA 80.93 64.85
7 2-AAAAAA 82.69 59.63
8 3-AAAAA 76.78 58.84
9 3-AAAAAA 74.79 57.71
10 8-AAAA 74.59 56.50
11 6-AAAAA 72.10 54.85
6-Div B-AAAAA 75.38 58.06
6-Div A-AAAAA 69.10 51.49
12 6-AAAAAA 70.11 52.21
13 5-AAAAA 68.99 51.19
14 8-AAAAA 70.31 50.72
15 3-AAAA 68.19 50.71
16 6-AAAA 66.80 48.39
17 2-AAAAA 69.57 47.07
18 2-AAAA 62.30 46.65
19 4-AAAAA 62.64 46.01
4-Div B-AAAAA 64.44 47.89
4-Div A-AAAAA 61.02 44.25
20 1-AAAA 64.45 45.92
1-Div A-AAAA 69.32 49.62
1-Div B-AAAA 59.34 42.73
21 1-AA 62.23 43.91
22 7-AAAAA 62.92 43.23
7-Div A-AAAAA 63.63 47.64
7-Div B-AAAAA 61.51 37.37
23 1-AAAAA 63.64 43.14
24 5-AAA 61.96 42.54
25 8-AAA 61.68 41.07
26 7-AAAA 58.50 38.10
27 4-AAAA 57.83 36.35
4-Div B-AAAA 66.11 40.56
4-Div A-AAAA 51.75 32.19
28 4-AA 51.62 35.69
29 4-AAA 57.62 35.37
4-Div B-AAA 62.76 41.77
4-Div A-AAA 50.45 30.76
30 5-AA 52.80 33.53
31 6-AA 62.47 33.29
32 3-AA 48.97 31.91
33 2-AA 53.36 31.17
34 1-AAA 50.01 30.65
1-Div A-AAA 56.64 39.13
1-Div B-AAA 38.54 22.52
35 2-AAA 51.64 30.46
36 2-A 48.23 30.43
37 5-A 51.59 30.31
38 7-A 47.19 28.87
7-Div A-A 47.78 31.62
7-Div B-A 46.27 23.45
39 4-A 46.52 27.43
40 7-AAA 43.20 27.09
41 3-AAA 57.93 25.09
42 7-AA 40.55 24.14
43 3-A 44.45 24.09
3-Div A-A 47.18 27.07
3-Div B-A 40.87 20.15
44 6-A 39.51 24.01
6-Div A-A 42.95 27.99
6-Div B-A 36.40 20.88
45 6-AAA 55.76 21.80
46 8-A 41.89 18.31
47 8-AA 39.61 16.24
48 1-A 29.40 14.30

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Scored Opponent Allowed Site Diff Pct Likelihood
20140822 Lamar County 19 Howard 19 H 30.94 95.7% 0.204
20140822 Athens Christian 7 Strong Rock Christian 8 H 5.07 62.4% 0.434
20140822 Early County 7 Irwin County 7 A 4.04 60.0% 0.490
20140823 Mount Paran Christian 31 Eagle's Landing Christian 14 A 0.76 51.9% 0.514
20140822 Mountain View 38 South Forsyth 31 H 1.07 52.7% 0.515
20140822 Rockdale County 28 Heritage (Conyers) 26 A 1.60 54.0% 0.517
20140822 Villa Rica 28 Rome 26 A 2.90 57.2% 0.529
20140822 West Laurens 42 Thomasville 35 A 2.20 55.5% 0.529
20140822 Southwest DeKalb 13 Columbia 12 A 5.11 62.5% 0.540
20140822 Allatoona 27 East Paulding 21 H 4.27 60.5% 0.550
20140822 McIntosh 28 Fayette County 25 A 15.00 81.8% 0.555
20140822 Hebron Christian Academy 35 East Jackson 15 A 2.93 57.3% 0.556
20140822 Walton 16 South Gwinnett 13 H 6.96 66.7% 0.557
20140823 Perry 21 Monroe 14 A 4.70 61.5% 0.557
20140822 Columbus 29 Jordan 27 A 10.98 75.0% 0.557

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Scored Opponent Allowed Site Diff Pct
94.29 20141003 Norcross North Gwinnett A 3.90 59.6%
89.66 20141107 Colquitt County Camden County H 0.80 52.0%
87.26 20140905 Buford McEachern H 8.43 69.9%
86.42 20140823 North Gwinnett 52 McEachern 49 N 9.98 73.1%
86.26 20140905 North Gwinnett Hillgrove A 11.20 75.4%
86.13 20141003 Colquitt County Lowndes H 6.08 64.8%
85.64 20140823 Norcross 32 Tucker 29 N 12.76 78.2%
84.38 20141003 Camden County Valdosta H 4.72 61.6%
84.37 20141010 Camden County Lowndes A 7.28 67.4%
84.08 20141107 McEachern Hillgrove A 1.21 53.0%
83.79 20140912 Hillgrove Lovejoy N 1.34 53.3%
83.44 20140919 McEachern Lovejoy N 0.56 51.4%
83.34 20141017 Colquitt County Valdosta A 11.49 75.9%
83.01 20141031 Lovejoy Tucker N 0.31 50.8%
81.99 20141031 Lowndes Valdosta A 3.41 58.5%

About the Author

Todd Holcomb

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