- As expected, Lee County rolled over Mitchell County last Friday to extend Region 1-AAAAAA’s record to 29-0. Although the region has faced some criticism over their outside schedule, to put this accomplishment into perspective, a weighted coin that comes up heads 98.6% of the time would still only have a 50% chance of getting 29 heads in a row.

- However, Region 1-AAAAAA's heavy lifting begins as region play starts this weekend. The marquee game across the state occurs as Colquitt County hosts Lowndes Friday in Maxwell’s highest rated matchup of the season. Valdosta visits Camden County in another of the region's notable contests. The region schedule ensures only one team, at most, will finish the season undefeated, although Maxwell estimates a 42% chance no one will escape unblemished.

Each Region 1-AAAAAA team’s odds of a perfect regular season record:

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 20.80%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 877 of 954 total games including 4 ties (92.14%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 11.97 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

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Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

Home Advantage: 0.45

By Class

All-Class

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.