The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 422 teams throughout the 2018 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the player roster or coaching staff.
Interesting results:
- Well, well, well . . . just as I said Region 1 has made Class AAAAAA uninteresting this season, they’ve offered up something for us pay to attention to.
Following its impressive sweep of Region 4 in the first round, all four Region 1 teams bumped off all of Region 2 in the second.
Can all of Region 1 advance again? Possibly. Each Region 1 team is the favorite for their upcoming quarterfinal game, but of course that doesn’t they are a lock. Lee County leads the group with a 95.0% chance of topping Creekview while Coffee, Northside (Warner Robins), and Valdosta are favorites by roughly a touchdown, giving each about a 65-70% chance of winning this weekend.
The chances of all four winning and thus an all Region 1 semifinal is 27.8%. As it is, the expected number of Region 1 teams in the semifinals is 2.9 teams.
- Overall Class AAAAAA had an uncommon pattern of sweeps on the playoffs this season. In the first round, Region 1 swept Region 4, Region 2 swept Region 3, and Region 6 swept Region 7. Region 8 almost pulled it off with a 3-1 showing against Region 5, with Creekside downing Gainesville being the only exception. This set up the unusual scenario in the Second Round where Region 1 faced off against Region 2.
Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings
As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.
The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.07%.
For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,083 of 2,240 total games including 0 tie(s) (92.99%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.77 points.
The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.
All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
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Home Advantage: 1.14
By Class
All-Class
Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
Regions
Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.
Least Likely Results
These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.
Highest Rated Matchups
These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.
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