Maxwell Second Round summary: All 1-AAAAAA semifinal? The computer thinks so

By Loren Maxwell

Nov 19, 2018

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 422 teams throughout the 2018 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the player roster or coaching staff.

Interesting results:

- Well, well, well . . . just as I said Region 1 has made Class AAAAAA uninteresting this season, they’ve offered up something for us pay to attention to.

Following its impressive sweep of Region 4 in the first round, all four Region 1 teams bumped off all of Region 2 in the second.

Can all of Region 1 advance again? Possibly. Each Region 1 team is the favorite for their upcoming quarterfinal game, but of course that doesn’t they are a lock. Lee County leads the group with a 95.0% chance of topping Creekview while Coffee, Northside (Warner Robins), and Valdosta are favorites by roughly a touchdown, giving each about a 65-70% chance of winning this weekend.

The chances of all four winning and thus an all Region 1 semifinal is 27.8%. As it is, the expected number of Region 1 teams in the semifinals is 2.9 teams.

- Overall Class AAAAAA had an uncommon pattern of sweeps on the playoffs this season. In the first round, Region 1 swept Region 4, Region 2 swept Region 3, and Region 6 swept Region 7. Region 8 almost pulled it off with a 3-1 showing against Region 5, with Creekside downing Gainesville being the only exception. This set up the unusual scenario in the Second Round where Region 1 faced off against Region 2.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.07%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,083 of 2,240 total games including 0 tie(s) (92.99%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.77 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.14

By Class

AAAAAAA				AAAAAA
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Colquitt County	12-0	103.35	1	Lee County	12-0	90.41
2	Grayson	10-2	87.47	2	Valdosta	8-4	66.66
3	Archer	10-2	81.80	3	Northside (Warner Robins)	7-5	63.77
4	Parkview	11-1	81.62	4	Creekview	12-0	62.14
5	Hillgrove	12-0	79.74	5	Dacula	10-2	58.89
6	North Gwinnett	10-2	79.05	6	Coffee	9-3	57.97
7	Lowndes	9-3	77.76	7	Sequoyah	10-2	55.45
8	Tift County	8-4	76.22	8	Allatoona	8-4	55.21
9	Walton	10-2	74.36	9	Harrison	9-3	52.71
10	McEachern	8-4	73.48	10	Glynn Academy	7-5	51.43
11	Milton	10-2	73.47	11	Lanier	9-3	50.23
12	Camden County	7-4	71.23	12	Johns Creek	9-2	49.22
13	Marietta	5-6	68.54	13	Creekside	8-4	45.23
14	Roswell	9-2	67.73	14	Habersham Central	7-5	45.09
15	Westlake	9-3	66.16	15	Centennial	7-4	42.32

AAAAA				AAAA
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Warner Robins	11-1	80.51	1	Mary Persons	12-0	83.19
2	Rome	12-0	80.37	2	Blessed Trinity	12-0	79.12
3	Dutchtown	12-0	72.88	3	Cartersville	12-0	76.81
4	Buford	10-2	72.74	4	Marist	10-2	72.62
5	Stockbridge	11-1	64.71	5	St. Pius X	10-2	70.21
6	Jones County	8-3	60.49	6	Troup	11-1	69.52
7	Bainbridge	7-5	60.06	7	Pickens	11-1	55.74
8	Veterans	8-3	58.05	8	North Oconee	9-3	54.93
9	Kell	9-3	57.95	9	Eastside	12-0	54.35
10	Wayne County	11-1	57.16	10	Ridgeland	8-4	53.96
11	Carrollton	10-2	56.62	11	Flowery Branch	8-3	53.79
12	Ware County	8-4	54.68	12	Cairo	10-2	53.42
13	Clarke Central	8-4	50.85	13	Baldwin	7-5	53.26
14	Cedar Shoals	8-4	50.74	14	Upson-Lee	7-4	52.51
15	Locust Grove	5-6	48.19	15	Sandy Creek	7-4	52.40

AAA				AA
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Cedar Grove	11-1	75.74	1	Rockmart	12-0	68.87
2	Monroe Area	12-0	71.54	2	Dublin	11-1	65.98
3	Calhoun	12-0	71.15	3	Washington County	10-2	59.07
4	Peach County	10-2	69.12	4	Callaway	10-2	58.35
5	Westminster (Atlanta)	8-4	61.05	5	Brooks County	9-3	57.70
6	Benedictine	11-1	58.71	6	Fitzgerald	9-3	56.76
7	Greater Atlanta Christian	9-3	58.63	7	Dodge County	10-2	56.18
8	Pace Academy	6-5	55.78	8	Rabun County	11-1	55.75
9	Pierce County	12-0	55.36	9	Heard County	10-2	54.39
10	Dawson County	10-2	54.79	10	Bremen	9-3	53.22
11	Lovett	6-6	54.58	11	Hapeville Charter	10-2	52.21
12	North Hall	9-3	50.20	12	Thomasville	7-5	51.32
13	Jefferson	8-3	48.36	13	Jefferson County	10-2	50.83
14	Westside (Macon)	8-4	48.20	14	Swainsboro	9-3	49.30
15	Crisp County	7-4	47.43	15	Vidalia	9-2	46.21

A - Public				A - Private
Rank	Team	Rec	Rating	Rank	Team	Rec	Rating
1	Irwin County	11-0	71.50	1	Eagle's Landing Christian	10-1	56.16
2	Clinch County	10-1	60.21	2	Athens Academy	11-0	55.72
3	Pelham	11-0	51.78	3	Prince Avenue Christian	10-1	50.96
4	Marion County	11-0	50.03	4	Savannah Christian	10-1	47.07
5	Mount Zion (Carroll)	10-1	43.13	5	Calvary Day	10-1	39.95
6	Commerce	10-2	42.88	6	George Walton Academy	8-3	39.37
7	Schley County	9-2	39.14	7	North Cobb Christian	10-1	37.33
8	Charlton County	8-4	37.62	8	Hebron Christian Academy	6-6	36.51
9	Mitchell County	8-3	36.93	9	Fellowship Christian	10-1	34.79
10	Emanuel County Institute	7-5	33.37	10	Wesleyan	7-5	33.67
11	Greene County	9-2	29.00	11	Darlington	9-2	33.23
12	Dooly County	7-5	28.26	12	Mount Vernon Presbyterian	8-4	32.21
13	Trion	8-4	27.51	13	Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)	8-4	31.47
14	Turner County	6-5	26.65	14	Riverside Military Academy	6-6	29.29
15	Wilcox County	5-6	25.76	15	Mount Paran Christian	7-4	27.12

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank	Team	Region	Rec	Rating	SchStr	Rank
1 [1]	Colquitt County	1 - AAAAAAA	12-0	103.35	68.44	1 [1]
2 [1]	Lee County	1 - AAAAAA	12-0	90.41	42.33	103 [15]
3 [2]	Grayson	8 - AAAAAAA	10-2	87.47	52.32	28 [21]
4 [1]	Mary Persons	2 - AAAA	12-0	83.19	43.06	96 [21]
5 [3]	Archer	8 - AAAAAAA	10-2	81.80	56.66	12 [10]
6 [4]	Parkview	7 - AAAAAAA	11-1	81.62	55.40	15 [12]
7 [1]	Warner Robins	1 - AAAAA	11-1	80.51	55.09	16 [2]
8 [2]	Rome	7 - AAAAA	12-0	80.37	36.77	146 [29]
9 [5]	Hillgrove	3 - AAAAAAA	12-0	79.74	53.70	26 [19]
10 [2]	Blessed Trinity	7 - AAAA	12-0	79.12	45.07	79 [16]
11 [6]	North Gwinnett	6 - AAAAAAA	10-2	79.05	50.49	40 [32]
12 [7]	Lowndes	1 - AAAAAAA	9-3	77.76	61.39	5 [5]
13 [3]	Cartersville	5 - AAAA	12-0	76.81	43.02	98 [22]
14 [8]	Tift County	1 - AAAAAAA	8-4	76.22	65.27	2 [2]
15 [1]	Cedar Grove	5 - AAA	11-1	75.74	34.40	180 [21]
16 [9]	Walton	4 - AAAAAAA	10-2	74.36	54.75	18 [14]
17 [10]	McEachern	3 - AAAAAAA	8-4	73.48	62.32	4 [4]
18 [11]	Milton	5 - AAAAAAA	10-2	73.47	52.84	27 [20]
19 [3]	Dutchtown	4 - AAAAA	12-0	72.88	41.06	112 [18]
20 [4]	Buford	8 - AAAAA	10-2	72.74	39.98	120 [23]
21 [4]	Marist	7 - AAAA	10-2	72.62	48.30	56 [7]
22 [2]	Monroe Area	8 - AAA	12-0	71.54	36.15	157 [13]
23 [1]	Irwin County	2 - A	11-0	71.50	28.49	230 [4]
24 [12]	Camden County	1 - AAAAAAA	7-4	71.23	61.24	6 [6]
25 [3]	Calhoun	6 - AAA	12-0	71.15	21.53	316 [49]
26 [5]	St. Pius X	8 - AAAA	10-2	70.21	49.72	44 [2]
27 [6]	Troup	5 - AAAA	11-1	69.52	48.11	59 [10]
28 [4]	Peach County	4 - AAA	10-2	69.12	39.57	125 [5]
29 [1]	Rockmart	7 - AA	12-0	68.87	22.40	307 [32]
30 [13]	Marietta	3 - AAAAAAA	5-6	68.54	64.24	3 [3]
31 [14]	Roswell	4 - AAAAAAA	9-2	67.73	50.96	37 [29]
32 [2]	Valdosta	1 - AAAAAA	8-4	66.66	58.04	10 [2]
33 [15]	Westlake	2 - AAAAAAA	9-3	66.16	52.17	29 [22]
34 [16]	Mill Creek	6 - AAAAAAA	8-4	66.10	57.56	11 [9]
35 [2]	Dublin	3 - AA	11-1	65.98	37.53	140 [11]
36 [5]	Stockbridge	4 - AAAAA	11-1	64.71	36.30	155 [30]
37 [3]	Northside (Warner Robins)	1 - AAAAAA	7-5	63.77	54.35	23 [3]
38 [17]	Norcross	7 - AAAAAAA	7-5	62.35	56.22	13 [11]
39 [4]	Creekview	6 - AAAAAA	12-0	62.14	35.97	160 [29]
40 [5]	Westminster (Atlanta)	5 - AAA	8-4	61.05	51.15	36 [1]
41 [6]	Jones County	4 - AAAAA	8-3	60.49	48.50	54 [7]
42 [2]	Clinch County	2 - A	10-1	60.21	31.38	203 [2]
43 [7]	Bainbridge	1 - AAAAA	7-5	60.06	54.39	21 [3]
44 [18]	North Paulding	3 - AAAAAAA	7-4	60.01	51.25	35 [28]
45 [3]	Washington County	3 - AA	10-2	59.07	43.81	86 [3]
46 [5]	Dacula	8 - AAAAAA	10-2	58.89	41.42	109 [18]
47 [6]	Benedictine	3 - AAA	11-1	58.71	23.45	291 [44]
48 [7]	Greater Atlanta Christian	7 - AAA	9-3	58.63	36.45	150 [9]
49 [19]	West Forsyth	5 - AAAAAAA	6-6	58.56	51.84	31 [24]
50 [4]	Callaway	5 - AA	10-2	58.35	28.71	228 [19]
51 [20]	Brookwood	7 - AAAAAAA	7-4	58.10	46.40	68 [37]
52 [8]	Veterans	1 - AAAAA	8-3	58.05	49.61	46 [5]
53 [21]	North Cobb	3 - AAAAAAA	6-4	58.00	54.40	20 [16]
54 [6]	Coffee	1 - AAAAAA	9-3	57.97	42.75	100 [13]
55 [9]	Kell	7 - AAAAA	9-3	57.95	39.50	126 [24]
56 [5]	Brooks County	1 - AA	9-3	57.70	46.17	69 [2]
57 [10]	Wayne County	2 - AAAAA	11-1	57.16	39.31	128 [26]
58 [6]	Fitzgerald	1 - AA	9-3	56.76	41.92	107 [6]
59 [11]	Carrollton	7 - AAAAA	10-2	56.62	38.43	132 [27]
60 [7]	Dodge County	3 - AA	10-2	56.18	41.19	111 [7]
61 [1]	Eagle's Landing Christian	5 - A	10-1	56.16	23.65	282 [9]
62 [22]	Mountain View	6 - AAAAAAA	7-4	55.93	49.52	47 [35]
63 [8]	Pace Academy	5 - AAA	6-5	55.78	47.33	60 [3]
64 [8]	Rabun County	8 - AA	11-1	55.75	23.57	286 [29]
65 [7]	Pickens	6 - AAAA	11-1	55.74	20.54	328 [50]
66 [2]	Athens Academy	8 - A	11-0	55.72	29.56	218 [3]
67 [7]	Sequoyah	6 - AAAAAA	10-2	55.45	38.92	131 [21]
68 [9]	Pierce County	2 - AAA	12-0	55.36	17.50	357 [55]
69 [8]	Allatoona	6 - AAAAAA	8-4	55.21	45.16	78 [9]
70 [8]	North Oconee	8 - AAAA	9-3	54.93	40.41	116 [26]
71 [10]	Dawson County	7 - AAA	10-2	54.79	28.40	234 [29]
72 [12]	Ware County	2 - AAAAA	8-4	54.68	47.16	61 [8]
73 [11]	Lovett	5 - AAA	6-6	54.58	49.69	45 [2]
74 [9]	Heard County	5 - AA	10-2	54.39	29.69	217 [17]
75 [9]	Eastside	4 - AAAA	12-0	54.35	23.53	289 [48]
76 [10]	Ridgeland	6 - AAAA	8-4	53.96	37.28	142 [29]
77 [23]	East Coweta	2 - AAAAAAA	4-8	53.94	59.64	8 [8]
78 [11]	Flowery Branch	7 - AAAA	8-3	53.79	39.89	121 [27]
79 [12]	Cairo	1 - AAAA	10-2	53.42	31.92	199 [35]
80 [13]	Baldwin	3 - AAAA	7-5	53.26	49.00	51 [5]
81 [10]	Bremen	5 - AA	9-3	53.22	29.45	220 [18]
82 [9]	Harrison	6 - AAAAAA	9-3	52.71	39.27	129 [20]
83 [14]	Upson-Lee	2 - AAAA	7-4	52.51	48.23	57 [8]
84 [15]	Sandy Creek	5 - AAAA	7-4	52.40	43.60	89 [19]
85 [11]	Hapeville Charter	6 - AA	10-2	52.21	20.31	333 [42]
86 [24]	Newnan	2 - AAAAAAA	6-5	51.89	48.41	55 [36]
87 [3]	Pelham	1 - A	11-0	51.78	8.84	407 [42]
88 [16]	Cedartown	5 - AAAA	5-6	51.57	49.24	50 [4]
89 [17]	Burke County	3 - AAAA	8-4	51.44	42.36	101 [23]
90 [10]	Glynn Academy	2 - AAAAAA	7-5	51.43	42.94	99 [12]
91 [12]	Thomasville	1 - AA	7-5	51.32	48.74	53 [1]
92 [3]	Prince Avenue Christian	8 - A	10-1	50.96	26.14	258 [6]
93 [13]	Clarke Central	8 - AAAAA	8-4	50.85	43.83	85 [16]
94 [13]	Jefferson County	4 - AA	10-2	50.83	26.97	248 [21]
95 [14]	Cedar Shoals	8 - AAAAA	8-4	50.74	40.25	118 [22]
96 [11]	Lanier	8 - AAAAAA	9-3	50.23	40.73	114 [19]
97 [12]	North Hall	7 - AAA	9-3	50.20	26.15	257 [35]
98 [4]	Marion County	4 - A	11-0	50.03	19.70	340 [18]
99 [25]	South Forsyth	5 - AAAAAAA	5-6	49.63	53.84	25 [18]
100 [14]	Swainsboro	2 - AA	9-3	49.30	35.34	168 [14]
101 [12]	Johns Creek	7 - AAAAAA	9-2	49.22	27.20	246 [50]
102 [18]	Oconee County	8 - AAAA	6-5	48.86	46.78	64 [12]
103 [26]	Cherokee	4 - AAAAAAA	5-6	48.44	54.43	19 [15]
104 [13]	Jefferson	8 - AAA	8-3	48.36	34.93	173 [19]
105 [14]	Westside (Macon)	4 - AAA	8-4	48.20	36.39	151 [10]
106 [15]	Locust Grove	4 - AAAAA	5-6	48.19	53.97	24 [4]
107 [16]	East Paulding	7 - AAAAA	7-5	47.98	44.84	81 [13]
108 [19]	Howard	2 - AAAA	6-5	47.73	45.32	76 [14]
109 [15]	Crisp County	1 - AAA	7-4	47.43	40.10	119 [4]
110 [27]	Collins Hill	6 - AAAAAAA	3-8	47.24	61.02	7 [7]
111 [4]	Savannah Christian	3 - A	10-1	47.07	20.82	324 [17]
112 [28]	Etowah	4 - AAAAAAA	4-7	46.66	54.85	17 [13]
113 [29]	Pebblebrook	2 - AAAAAAA	4-7	46.44	51.28	34 [27]
114 [30]	Wheeler	2 - AAAAAAA	6-4	46.27	43.60	90 [39]
115 [15]	Vidalia	2 - AA	9-2	46.21	26.21	254 [22]
116 [20]	Stephens County	8 - AAAA	5-6	45.69	49.31	48 [3]
117 [21]	Perry	2 - AAAA	6-5	45.33	45.24	77 [15]
118 [17]	Thomas County Central	1 - AAAAA	5-5	45.31	45.41	74 [12]
119 [13]	Creekside	5 - AAAAAA	8-4	45.23	36.57	148 [25]
120 [22]	Chapel Hill	5 - AAAA	6-4	45.15	42.02	105 [24]
121 [31]	Central Gwinnett	7 - AAAAAAA	4-7	45.09	51.38	33 [26]
122 [14]	Habersham Central	8 - AAAAAA	7-5	45.09	42.00	106 [17]
123 [32]	Kennesaw Mountain	3 - AAAAAAA	4-6	44.65	51.95	30 [23]
124 [23]	Thomson	3 - AAAA	5-7	44.55	48.13	58 [9]
125 [24]	West Laurens	2 - AAAA	5-5	44.40	43.23	95 [20]
126 [18]	Banneker	6 - AAAAA	9-2	44.19	22.21	312 [48]
127 [5]	Mount Zion (Carroll)	6 - A	10-1	43.13	20.38	332 [17]
128 [33]	Forsyth Central	5 - AAAAAAA	7-4	43.09	34.82	175 [46]
129 [6]	Commerce	8 - A	10-2	42.88	22.46	305 [14]
130 [25]	Carver (Columbus)	1 - AAAA	9-2	42.81	29.77	214 [39]
131 [19]	Griffin	3 - AAAAA	8-4	42.55	31.94	198 [35]
132 [16]	Liberty County	2 - AAA	8-4	42.55	33.95	181 [22]
133 [34]	Woodstock	4 - AAAAAAA	3-7	42.49	51.56	32 [25]
134 [15]	Centennial	7 - AAAAAA	7-4	42.32	33.89	183 [36]
135 [16]	Dalton	6 - AAAAAA	6-4	42.13	34.99	172 [32]
136 [17]	Richmond Hill	2 - AAAAAA	5-6	42.09	45.49	72 [7]
137 [20]	Harris County	1 - AAAAA	3-8	42.05	55.95	14 [1]
138 [17]	Jackson	4 - AAA	7-5	41.98	37.20	144 [7]
139 [35]	Newton	8 - AAAAAAA	4-7	41.84	50.57	39 [31]
140 [18]	Effingham County	2 - AAAAAA	7-5	41.71	38.00	136 [23]
141 [21]	Loganville	8 - AAAAA	5-7	41.66	49.27	49 [6]
142 [18]	Appling County	2 - AAA	6-5	41.65	35.80	162 [15]
143 [26]	Woodward Academy	4 - AAAA	7-5	41.51	29.99	212 [38]
144 [27]	Richmond Academy	3 - AAAA	7-4	41.40	37.20	143 [30]
145 [19]	Bradwell Institute	2 - AAAAAA	5-7	41.31	43.77	87 [10]
146 [20]	Douglas County	5 - AAAAAA	8-3	41.00	32.92	191 [40]
147 [21]	Stephenson	4 - AAAAAA	9-2	40.59	22.79	298 [56]
148 [22]	Mays	5 - AAAAAA	6-5	40.40	34.55	178 [34]
149 [16]	Early County	1 - AA	6-5	40.25	43.47	93 [4]
150 [36]	South Gwinnett	8 - AAAAAAA	4-7	40.08	49.88	43 [34]
151 [5]	Calvary Day	3 - A	10-1	39.95	10.54	403 [36]
152 [6]	George Walton Academy	8 - A	8-3	39.37	23.28	292 [10]
153 [22]	Statesboro	2 - AAAAA	4-7	39.28	44.54	82 [14]
154 [7]	Schley County	4 - A	9-2	39.14	17.03	360 [23]
155 [37]	North Forsyth	5 - AAAAAAA	3-7	38.77	44.85	80 [38]
156 [23]	New Hampstead	2 - AAAAA	5-6	38.59	40.36	117 [21]
157 [24]	Southwest DeKalb	5 - AAAAA	10-1	38.49	19.77	339 [52]
158 [25]	Riverwood	6 - AAAAA	8-3	38.37	20.72	325 [49]
159 [38]	Meadowcreek	7 - AAAAAAA	6-4	38.26	33.72	185 [47]
160 [26]	Union Grove	4 - AAAAA	6-4	38.18	32.64	195 [34]
161 [23]	Houston County	1 - AAAAAA	2-8	38.12	59.52	9 [1]
162 [19]	Jenkins	3 - AAA	9-3	38.05	22.87	296 [46]
163 [17]	Union County	8 - AA	9-2	38.05	12.11	395 [56]
164 [8]	Charlton County	2 - A	8-4	37.62	28.46	231 [5]
165 [18]	Elbert County	8 - AA	7-4	37.51	21.14	321 [38]
166 [19]	Douglass	6 - AA	10-2	37.42	10.12	404 [58]
167 [7]	North Cobb Christian	6 - A	10-1	37.33	20.01	335 [19]
168 [24]	Tucker	4 - AAAAAA	7-4	37.15	29.13	222 [47]
169 [28]	Columbus	1 - AAAA	7-5	36.96	33.05	189 [34]
170 [9]	Mitchell County	1 - A	8-3	36.93	12.27	393 [35]
171 [25]	Alpharetta	7 - AAAAAA	6-5	36.86	34.42	179 [35]
172 [27]	Starr's Mill	3 - AAAAA	7-4	36.75	27.56	240 [41]
173 [8]	Hebron Christian Academy	8 - A	6-6	36.51	32.73	194 [1]
174 [26]	Winder-Barrow	8 - AAAAAA	2-8	36.15	46.79	63 [4]
175 [29]	Denmark	7 - AAAA	5-5	35.72	39.67	123 [28]
176 [28]	Villa Rica	7 - AAAAA	5-5	35.68	36.86	145 [28]
177 [20]	Chattooga	7 - AA	9-3	35.29	20.71	326 [40]
178 [27]	Grovetown	3 - AAAAAA	6-5	35.18	33.52	187 [38]
179 [30]	White County	7 - AAAA	3-8	35.11	46.92	62 [11]
180 [28]	Sprayberry	6 - AAAAAA	3-7	34.96	43.56	91 [11]
181 [9]	Fellowship Christian	6 - A	10-1	34.79	14.89	376 [26]
182 [29]	Northgate	5 - AAAAAA	6-5	34.76	35.44	167 [31]
183 [20]	Pike County	4 - AAA	8-4	34.69	19.03	345 [52]
184 [21]	Southeast Bulloch	3 - AAA	9-2	34.66	18.45	350 [54]
185 [39]	Campbell	2 - AAAAAAA	1-9	34.30	54.38	22 [17]
186 [31]	West Hall	7 - AAAA	3-7	34.18	45.46	73 [13]
187 [21]	Bleckley County	3 - AA	4-6	34.14	39.63	124 [8]
188 [30]	Gainesville	8 - AAAAAA	2-9	34.00	46.63	66 [6]
189 [40]	Lambert	5 - AAAAAAA	3-7	33.89	43.32	94 [41]
190 [29]	Hiram	7 - AAAAA	4-6	33.85	41.24	110 [17]
191 [10]	Wesleyan	5 - A	7-5	33.67	29.71	215 [2]
192 [32]	Salem	4 - AAAA	7-4	33.45	24.43	273 [46]
193 [10]	Emanuel County Institute	3 - A	7-5	33.37	21.35	318 [15]
194 [11]	Darlington	6 - A	9-2	33.23	22.39	308 [14]
195 [31]	Apalachee	8 - AAAAAA	3-7	33.20	42.35	102 [14]
196 [22]	Morgan County	8 - AAA	5-6	33.03	36.31	154 [11]
197 [22]	Hephzibah	4 - AA	8-3	32.81	19.80	338 [44]
198 [32]	Brunswick	2 - AAAAAA	3-7	32.70	42.05	104 [16]
199 [12]	Mount Vernon Presbyterian	5 - A	8-4	32.21	22.59	300 [13]
200 [23]	Berrien	1 - AA	5-5	32.20	36.35	153 [12]
201 [23]	Haralson County	6 - AAA	8-3	31.60	18.91	346 [53]
202 [13]	Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)	5 - A	8-4	31.47	22.90	295 [11]
203 [30]	Walnut Grove	8 - AAAAA	2-8	31.43	46.42	67 [9]
204 [24]	Northeast	3 - AA	4-7	31.34	39.08	130 [9]
205 [24]	Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe	6 - AAA	7-4	30.99	22.41	306 [48]
206 [33]	Spalding	2 - AAAA	3-7	30.98	41.60	108 [25]
207 [33]	Hughes	5 - AAAAAA	4-6	30.96	36.37	152 [27]
208 [34]	Westover	1 - AAAA	4-5	30.72	30.41	210 [37]
209 [35]	LaGrange	5 - AAAA	2-8	30.69	48.85	52 [6]
210 [25]	Hart County	8 - AAA	4-7	30.63	37.80	137 [6]
211 [41]	Lassiter	4 - AAAAAAA	1-9	30.63	50.57	38 [31]
212 [25]	Jeff Davis	2 - AA	7-4	30.42	23.22	293 [31]
213 [34]	Greenbrier	3 - AAAAAA	3-8	30.34	38.19	135 [22]
214 [35]	Evans	3 - AAAAAA	3-8	30.26	37.40	141 [24]
215 [36]	Pope	7 - AAAAAA	5-6	30.09	33.05	190 [39]
216 [36]	Hardaway	1 - AAAA	5-5	30.04	29.11	223 [41]
217 [26]	Washington	6 - AA	7-4	29.54	13.91	383 [54]
218 [26]	North Murray	6 - AAA	6-5	29.31	26.13	259 [36]
219 [14]	Riverside Military Academy	8 - A	6-6	29.29	27.29	243 [4]
220 [31]	Arabia Mountain	5 - AAAAA	6-5	29.26	25.37	266 [44]
221 [11]	Greene County	7 - A	9-2	29.00	13.02	389 [32]
222 [27]	Harlem	4 - AA	7-4	28.94	19.81	336 [43]
223 [27]	Central (Macon)	4 - AAA	3-7	28.71	35.72	165 [16]
224 [37]	Lakeside (Evans)	3 - AAAAAA	5-5	28.60	29.80	213 [45]
225 [28]	Southwest	3 - AA	3-7	28.58	43.04	97 [5]
226 [38]	Lovejoy	4 - AAAAAA	6-5	28.51	28.13	236 [49]
227 [39]	Alexander	5 - AAAAAA	3-7	28.40	35.75	164 [30]
228 [37]	Madison County	8 - AAAA	2-8	28.39	43.68	88 [18]
229 [12]	Dooly County	4 - A	7-5	28.26	23.56	288 [12]
230 [28]	Windsor Forest	3 - AAA	6-5	28.09	21.50	317 [50]
231 [32]	Eagle's Landing	4 - AAAAA	2-8	27.95	44.01	84 [15]
232 [33]	Woodland (Stockbridge)	4 - AAAAA	3-7	27.81	39.49	127 [25]
233 [34]	Riverdale	3 - AAAAA	7-4	27.54	22.78	299 [46]
234 [13]	Trion	6 - A	8-4	27.51	19.69	341 [19]
235 [42]	Duluth	6 - AAAAAAA	4-6	27.39	37.61	138 [45]
236 [29]	Ringgold	6 - AAA	5-6	27.30	28.03	237 [31]
237 [40]	South Cobb	6 - AAAAAA	2-8	27.18	46.67	65 [5]
238 [15]	Mount Paran Christian	6 - A	7-4	27.12	17.00	361 [22]
239 [43]	Peachtree Ridge	6 - AAAAAAA	1-9	27.03	50.34	41 [33]
240 [38]	Central (Carrollton)	5 - AAAA	2-8	26.93	50.10	42 [1]
241 [44]	Rockdale County	8 - AAAAAAA	3-7	26.78	38.33	133 [43]
242 [35]	Jonesboro	3 - AAAAA	5-6	26.67	31.84	201 [36]
243 [14]	Turner County	2 - A	6-5	26.65	25.24	267 [9]
244 [16]	Christian Heritage	6 - A	7-4	26.19	21.15	320 [16]
245 [36]	Woodland (Cartersville)	7 - AAAAA	4-6	26.07	35.64	166 [31]
246 [39]	Northside (Columbus)	1 - AAAA	4-6	26.05	31.29	204 [36]
247 [37]	Maynard Jackson	6 - AAAAA	6-5	26.02	20.43	331 [51]
248 [41]	Heritage (Conyers)	3 - AAAAAA	3-7	25.99	32.47	196 [42]
249 [30]	Franklin County	8 - AAA	3-7	25.93	36.21	156 [12]
250 [15]	Wilcox County	2 - A	5-6	25.76	24.44	272 [10]
251 [42]	Northview	7 - AAAAAA	5-5	25.57	26.22	253 [51]
252 [29]	Metter	2 - AA	6-4	25.51	22.11	313 [34]
253 [31]	Cook	1 - AAA	3-8	25.35	36.60	147 [8]
254 [40]	Americus-Sumter	1 - AAAA	3-7	25.32	35.80	163 [31]
255 [17]	Brookstone	4 - A	7-5	25.25	13.36	386 [31]
256 [38]	Carver (Atlanta)	6 - AAAAA	5-6	25.15	28.61	229 [38]
257 [30]	Pepperell	7 - AA	6-5	25.10	23.52	290 [30]
258 [18]	Holy Innocents	5 - A	6-6	25.07	22.26	311 [15]
259 [31]	Toombs County	2 - AA	5-6	24.89	27.27	244 [20]
260 [41]	Heritage (Ringgold)	6 - AAAA	5-6	24.72	29.34	221 [40]
261 [16]	Chattahoochee County	1 - A	8-4	24.71	13.37	385 [30]
262 [39]	South Effingham	2 - AAAAA	2-8	24.62	40.72	115 [20]
263 [32]	Screven County	4 - AA	6-5	24.56	23.96	279 [28]
264 [43]	Mundy's Mill	4 - AAAAAA	6-5	24.34	23.58	285 [55]
265 [45]	Shiloh	8 - AAAAAAA	2-8	24.05	38.31	134 [44]
266 [17]	Miller County	1 - A	7-4	23.23	12.62	391 [33]
267 [18]	Telfair County	2 - A	4-6	23.08	26.21	255 [8]
268 [40]	Johnson (Gainesville)	8 - AAAAA	4-6	23.02	31.46	202 [37]
269 [42]	Northwest Whitfield	6 - AAAA	6-5	22.84	18.68	347 [51]
270 [19]	Mount de Sales	7 - A	9-2	22.62	10.63	401 [34]
271 [33]	Spencer	5 - AA	3-8	22.53	37.59	139 [10]
272 [19]	Montgomery County	3 - A	8-4	22.28	13.12	388 [31]
273 [44]	South Paulding	5 - AAAAAA	2-8	22.04	34.61	177 [33]
274 [20]	Aquinas	7 - A	9-3	21.88	11.50	398 [33]
275 [45]	Cambridge	7 - AAAAAA	3-7	21.57	32.77	193 [41]
276 [20]	Manchester	4 - A	6-5	21.28	16.26	367 [25]
277 [41]	Paulding County	7 - AAAAA	1-9	21.27	45.78	70 [10]
278 [46]	Discovery	6 - AAAAAAA	1-9	21.18	43.55	92 [40]
279 [46]	North Atlanta	7 - AAAAAA	5-5	21.17	22.32	309 [57]
280 [43]	Cross Creek	3 - AAAA	3-7	21.02	33.91	182 [33]
281 [42]	Ola	4 - AAAAA	1-9	20.75	45.76	71 [11]
282 [21]	Whitefield Academy	6 - A	6-4	20.62	14.68	378 [28]
283 [34]	Butler	4 - AA	5-5	20.28	19.66	342 [45]
284 [21]	Macon County	4 - A	5-6	20.19	20.49	330 [16]
285 [47]	Alcovy	3 - AAAAAA	2-8	20.01	36.03	158 [28]
286 [32]	Adairsville	6 - AAA	4-6	19.41	25.04	268 [37]
287 [33]	Monroe	1 - AAA	5-6	19.41	26.64	250 [33]
288 [44]	Hampton	4 - AAAA	4-6	19.31	23.88	280 [47]
289 [45]	Henry County	4 - AAAA	4-7	19.20	26.86	249 [44]
290 [43]	Cass	7 - AAAAA	1-9	18.96	40.97	113 [19]
291 [35]	Coosa	7 - AA	4-7	18.70	25.51	262 [23]
292 [22]	Savannah Country Day	3 - A	7-4	18.51	10.57	402 [35]
293 [44]	Lithonia	5 - AAAAA	6-5	18.47	17.65	356 [53]
294 [23]	Tattnall Square	7 - A	6-5	18.36	14.01	382 [30]
295 [22]	Claxton	3 - A	6-5	18.19	18.61	348 [20]
296 [46]	Shaw	1 - AAAA	3-7	18.15	29.00	224 [42]
297 [48]	Tri-Cities	5 - AAAAAA	1-9	17.58	33.67	186 [37]
298 [36]	Bacon County	2 - AA	2-8	17.41	34.65	176 [15]
299 [49]	Morrow	4 - AAAAAA	3-7	17.31	28.93	225 [48]
300 [34]	Jackson County	8 - AAA	3-7	17.28	29.70	216 [26]
301 [23]	Taylor County	4 - A	5-6	17.24	18.45	351 [21]
302 [37]	South Atlanta	6 - AA	6-5	17.13	12.10	396 [57]
303 [50]	New Manchester	5 - AAAAAA	2-8	17.07	32.30	197 [43]
304 [51]	Drew	4 - AAAAAA	3-7	16.63	26.19	256 [52]
305 [45]	Decatur	6 - AAAAA	4-6	16.60	20.50	329 [50]
306 [38]	Monticello	8 - AA	5-6	16.18	22.09	314 [35]
307 [35]	Sonoraville	6 - AAA	4-6	16.12	22.94	294 [45]
308 [47]	LaFayette	6 - AAAA	5-5	15.68	17.25	359 [53]
309 [24]	Hancock Central	7 - A	6-5	15.52	12.06	397 [37]
310 [25]	Jenkins County	3 - A	5-5	15.07	12.31	392 [34]
311 [26]	Atkinson County	2 - A	3-7	14.89	28.44	233 [6]
312 [36]	Islands	3 - AAA	3-7	14.82	23.65	281 [41]
313 [37]	Beach	3 - AAA	4-6	14.82	27.30	242 [32]
314 [46]	McIntosh	3 - AAAAA	3-7	14.34	24.31	276 [45]
315 [38]	Tattnall County	2 - AAA	2-9	14.21	35.08	170 [17]
316 [24]	St. Francis	6 - A	5-5	13.97	12.68	390 [32]
317 [39]	Glenn Hills	4 - AA	3-7	13.31	21.82	315 [36]
318 [52]	Forest Park	4 - AAAAAA	3-7	13.07	19.81	337 [58]
319 [25]	Stratford Academy	7 - A	5-6	12.93	15.98	369 [23]
320 [40]	Laney	4 - AA	4-6	12.90	21.04	322 [39]
321 [26]	Strong Rock Christian	5 - A	3-7	12.47	27.25	245 [5]
322 [47]	North Springs	6 - AAAAA	3-7	12.27	22.50	302 [47]
323 [48]	Miller Grove	5 - AAAAA	3-8	12.17	27.71	239 [40]
324 [53]	Mount Zion (Jonesboro)	4 - AAAAAA	2-8	12.14	24.94	270 [54]
325 [48]	Luella	4 - AAAA	3-7	12.06	26.50	251 [45]
326 [49]	Columbia	5 - AAAAA	2-8	12.02	27.93	238 [39]
327 [27]	Pinecrest Academy	6 - A	4-6	11.40	14.97	373 [25]
328 [39]	Fannin County	7 - AAA	4-7	11.21	22.50	303 [47]
329 [54]	M.L. King	4 - AAAAAA	1-9	11.02	25.77	260 [53]
330 [55]	Dunwoody	7 - AAAAAA	2-8	10.50	29.47	219 [46]
331 [41]	Lamar County	5 - AA	4-6	10.40	25.38	265 [24]
332 [40]	Worth County	1 - AAA	1-9	10.21	35.98	159 [14]
333 [42]	Banks County	8 - AA	4-6	9.79	15.95	370 [52]
334 [56]	River Ridge	6 - AAAAAA	1-9	9.63	45.34	75 [8]
335 [27]	Seminole County	1 - A	5-6	9.49	16.95	363 [24]
336 [41]	Brantley County	2 - AAA	2-8	9.08	28.22	235 [30]
337 [50]	Whitewater	3 - AAAAA	1-9	8.81	33.09	188 [33]
338 [28]	Johnson County	3 - A	6-4	8.45	3.31	416 [48]
339 [28]	Mount Pisgah Christian	6 - A	3-7	7.95	19.54	343 [20]
340 [49]	Chestatee	7 - AAAA	1-9	7.82	44.39	83 [17]
341 [57]	Chattahoochee	7 - AAAAAA	0-10	7.71	30.99	206 [44]
342 [42]	East Hall	7 - AAA	3-7	6.90	30.97	207 [24]
343 [50]	Southeast Whitfield	6 - AAAA	3-7	6.32	22.46	304 [49]
344 [29]	Washington-Wilkes	7 - A	3-7	6.16	14.92	374 [27]
345 [29]	First Presbyterian	7 - A	3-7	6.03	15.80	372 [24]
346 [30]	Providence Christian	8 - A	4-6	5.38	17.66	355 [21]
347 [30]	Bowdon	6 - A	1-9	5.13	27.31	241 [7]
348 [43]	B.E.S.T. Academy	6 - AA	3-7	5.03	30.48	209 [16]
349 [31]	Warren County	7 - A	5-5	5.00	2.77	417 [49]
350 [44]	Gordon Central	7 - AA	3-7	4.94	16.73	364 [50]
351 [32]	Lincoln County	7 - A	4-6	4.71	8.83	408 [43]
352 [51]	Grady	6 - AAAAA	1-9	4.22	25.39	264 [43]
353 [33]	Gordon Lee	6 - A	2-8	4.16	23.64	283 [11]
354 [51]	Dougherty	1 - AAAA	0-8	3.87	35.26	169 [32]
355 [45]	Putnam County	8 - AA	3-7	3.72	22.32	310 [33]
356 [52]	Fayette County	3 - AAAAA	0-10	3.21	27.00	247 [42]
357 [34]	Terrell County	1 - A	4-6	2.78	11.22	399 [38]
358 [31]	Athens Christian	8 - A	3-7	2.75	22.82	297 [12]
359 [47]	Lakeside (Atlanta)	7 - AAAAAAA	1-9	2.64	39.75	122 [42]
360 [46]	Model	7 - AA	2-8	2.29	18.49	349 [47]
361 [35]	Towns County	8 - A	3-7	1.98	32.78	192 [1]
362 [47]	East Laurens	3 - AA	1-9	1.46	35.97	161 [13]
363 [36]	McIntosh County Academy	3 - A	1-9	0.98	22.53	301 [13]
364 [43]	Coahulla Creek	6 - AAA	1-9	0.69	23.58	284 [42]
365 [37]	Hawkinsville	4 - A	4-6	-0.61	12.24	394 [36]
366 [38]	Calhoun County	1 - A	3-7	-0.82	14.22	379 [29]
367 [48]	Westside (Augusta)	4 - AA	1-9	-0.87	24.34	275 [27]
368 [44]	Lumpkin County	7 - AAA	3-7	-1.02	16.58	366 [56]
369 [52]	North Clayton	4 - AAAA	1-9	-1.05	28.85	226 [43]
370 [45]	Johnson (Savannah)	3 - AAA	2-8	-1.20	24.28	278 [40]
371 [49]	Bryan County	2 - AA	1-8	-1.30	24.88	271 [26]
372 [50]	Therrell	6 - AA	2-8	-1.31	19.42	344 [46]
373 [32]	Landmark Christian	5 - A	2-8	-1.45	20.28	334 [18]
374 [33]	King's Ridge Christian	6 - A	1-9	-1.93	14.78	377 [27]
375 [48]	Berkmar	7 - AAAAAAA	3-7	-2.59	30.55	208 [48]
376 [34]	Lakeview Academy	8 - A	1-9	-2.64	25.61	261 [7]
377 [51]	Social Circle	8 - AA	4-6	-3.26	5.30	415 [59]
378 [52]	Armuchee	7 - AA	2-8	-3.45	18.07	352 [48]
379 [53]	Lithia Springs	6 - AAAAA	2-8	-4.29	17.00	362 [54]
380 [53]	Temple	5 - AA	1-9	-4.66	24.98	269 [25]
381 [54]	McNair	6 - AA	3-7	-5.38	14.15	380 [53]
382 [55]	Jordan	5 - AA	2-8	-5.55	20.70	327 [41]
383 [39]	Greenville	4 - A	3-7	-5.88	6.92	410 [45]
384 [56]	KIPP Atlanta Collegiate	6 - AA	2-8	-6.32	16.60	365 [51]
385 [40]	Lanier County	2 - A	0-10	-6.74	31.21	205 [3]
386 [41]	Portal	3 - A	2-8	-6.86	14.89	375 [28]
387 [35]	Pacelli	4 - A	4-6	-6.93	6.53	413 [37]
388 [46]	Stone Mountain	5 - AAA	2-8	-8.25	35.04	171 [18]
389 [42]	Wilkinson County	7 - A	1-9	-8.53	17.29	358 [22]
390 [47]	Long County	2 - AAA	0-10	-8.76	34.83	174 [20]
391 [36]	Walker	6 - A	1-9	-8.95	14.08	381 [29]
392 [57]	Dade County	7 - AA	1-9	-9.56	17.93	353 [49]
393 [58]	Josey	4 - AA	0-10	-9.58	21.35	319 [37]
394 [48]	Groves	3 - AAA	1-9	-10.57	28.45	232 [28]
395 [53]	Druid Hills	4 - AAAA	2-8	-12.47	16.20	368 [54]
396 [49]	Cherokee Bluff	7 - AAA	0-10	-12.85	31.91	200 [23]
397 [43]	Baconton Charter	1 - A	3-7	-13.52	6.87	411 [46]
398 [50]	Kendrick	4 - AAA	1-9	-14.65	26.44	252 [34]
399 [37]	Georgia Military College	7 - A	3-7	-14.71	-0.59	418 [38]
400 [51]	Murray County	6 - AAA	0-10	-14.90	20.99	323 [51]
401 [54]	Chamblee	5 - AAAAA	0-10	-14.91	33.82	184 [32]
402 [52]	Redan	5 - AAA	1-9	-15.03	28.74	227 [27]
403 [54]	Gilmer	6 - AAAA	0-10	-16.24	17.93	354 [52]
404 [58]	Osborne	6 - AAAAAA	0-10	-16.50	36.47	149 [26]
405 [44]	Treutlen	3 - A	3-7	-16.80	6.62	412 [47]
406 [38]	Our Lady of Mercy	5 - A	0-10	-17.05	25.40	263 [8]
407 [53]	East Jackson	8 - AAA	1-9	-18.10	24.28	277 [40]
408 [54]	Savannah	3 - AAA	0-10	-18.61	23.57	287 [43]
409 [55]	Rutland	4 - AAA	0-10	-19.83	30.15	211 [25]
410 [45]	Crawford County	4 - A	3-7	-19.97	-1.69	419 [50]
411 [46]	Stewart County	1 - A	2-8	-20.84	7.21	409 [44]
412 [59]	Oglethorpe County	8 - AA	0-10	-24.03	13.43	384 [55]
413 [56]	Towers	5 - AAA	0-10	-26.33	24.42	274 [38]
414 [55]	Clarkston	5 - AAAAA†	0-10	-30.78	13.14	387 [55]
415 [47]	Twiggs County	7 - A	0-10	-32.52	9.67	405 [40]
416 [48]	Wheeler County	3 - A	1-9	-34.38	10.69	400 [39]
417 [1]	ACE Charter	7 - A†	4-6	-35.46	-17.91	420 [1]
418 [49]	Central (Talbotton)	4 - A	0-10	-40.37	9.09	406 [41]
419 [50]	Randolph-Clay	1 - A	0-10	-46.29	15.88	371 [26]
420 [2]	Pataula Charter	1 - A†	2-7	-56.71	-38.80	422 [3]
421 [3]	Glascock County	7 - A†	1-8-1	-64.24	-25.53	421 [2]
422 [56]	Cross Keys	5 - AAAAA†	0-10	-86.86	5.52	414 [56]

† - Plays a non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank	Region	Comp Rating	Avg Rating
1	1 - AAAAAAA	94.82	80.73
2	1 - AAAAAA	80.70	63.03
3	8 - AAAAAAA	80.19	45.15
4	3 - AAAAAAA	77.83	64.37
5	1 - AAAAA	72.14	56.29
6	7 - AAAA	71.87	44.41
7	7 - AAAAAAA	70.89	44.69
8	5 - AAAA	70.65	50.08
9	2 - AAAA	70.41	48.66
10	6 - AAAAAAA	70.24	45.43
11	4 - AAAAAAA	68.96	50.98
12	7 - AAAAA	68.06	40.42
13	5 - AAA	67.79	40.40
14	4 - AAAAA	67.51	44.52
15	5 - AAAAAAA	65.67	48.63
16	8 - AAAA	63.80	49.70
17	8 - AAAAA	63.28	44.46
18	2 - AAAAAAA	62.62	49.76
19	3 - AA	61.84	40.55
20	2 - A	60.95	29.75
21	6 - AAAAAA	60.79	40.18
22	1 - AA	59.11	48.00
23	8 - AAA	58.21	30.62
24	4 - AAA	57.74	32.48
25	8 - AAAAAA	55.79	42.62
26	5 - AA	55.78	26.30
27	2 - AAAAA	55.75	43.04
28	7 - AAA	55.01	20.91
29	3 - AAAA	54.37	43.34
30	6 - AAA	53.86	23.05
31	8 - A	52.25	27.47
	8-Div A - A	52.10	33.45
	8-Div B - A	39.38	23.10
32	7 - AA	51.59	14.15
33	2 - AAAAAA	51.48	41.83
34	6 - AAAA	50.27	22.60
35	2 - AAA	48.86	26.56
36	1 - AAAA	48.19	29.83
37	3 - AAA	46.79	17.89
38	5 - AAAAAA	46.60	30.89
39	2 - AA	45.92	27.86
40	5 - A	45.86	23.27
41	7 - AAAAAA	45.71	27.05
42	8 - AA	45.48	16.04
43	4 - AAAA	45.47	20.69
44	6 - A	42.54	19.07
	6-Div A - A	41.70	26.25
	6-Div B - A	30.84	13.20
45	6 - AA	42.06	14.03
46	4 - A	41.48	12.80
	4-Div A - A	37.67	8.25
	4-Div B - A	33.39	16.04
47	4 - AA	41.37	19.30
48	3 - A	40.91	13.69
	3-Div A - A	40.72	19.15
	3-Div B - A	27.18	8.07
49	1 - A	39.84	7.67
50	6 - AAAAA	39.75	20.28
51	3 - AAAAA	39.51	22.91
52	1 - AAA	39.05	24.48
53	4 - AAAAAA	38.96	21.81
54	3 - AAAAAA	38.73	28.43
55	5 - AAAAA	31.58	17.04
56	7 - A	28.37	8.27
	7-Div B - A	25.02	10.02
	7-Div A - A	20.34	5.93

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date	Team	Opponent	Score	Diff	Pct	Likelihood
09/21	Roswell	Wheeler	36 - 37	20.32	88.4%	0.207
09/21	Bainbridge	Crisp County	0 - 23	13.77	79.9%	0.226
09/14	Mount Zion (Carroll)	Christian Heritage	22 - 30	15.80	82.9%	0.235
08/24	Cedar Shoals	Winder-Barrow	7 - 14	15.73	82.8%	0.240
10/26	Mundy's Mill	Forest Park	12 - 36	12.41	77.6%	0.247
09/07	Tattnall Square	Lincoln County	28 - 34	14.79	81.4%	0.258
11/09	Marietta	East Coweta	26 - 28	15.74	82.8%	0.263
08/31	Lanier	Alpharetta	9 - 14	14.51	81.0%	0.267
09/28	Gordon Central	Dade County	12 - 13	15.64	82.7%	0.270
11/09	Crisp County	Pike County	3 - 9	13.87	80.0%	0.272
09/07	Salem	Alcovy	20 - 23	14.58	81.1%	0.275
08/17	Chattooga	Adairsville	20 - 21	14.75	81.4%	0.284
10/26	Commerce	Riverside Military Academy	19 - 20	14.73	81.3%	0.284
10/19	Dooly County	Taylor County	19 - 47	9.89	72.9%	0.288
11/02	Newton	Rockdale County	34 - 35	13.92	80.1%	0.296

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating	Date	Team	Opponent	Score	Diff	Pct
90.54	09/21	Colquitt County	Grayson	26 - 14	14.75	81.4%
83.50	10/11	Grayson	Archer	41 - 14	6.81	66.4%
82.82	09/14	Colquitt County	Warner Robins	41 - 14	21.70	89.8%
81.68	11/16	Parkview	Archer	29 - 36	0.96	52.4%
79.83	11/23	Grayson	Lowndes	-	10.85	74.7%
79.80	11/23	Colquitt County	North Gwinnett	-	25.44	92.7%
79.07	08/31	Parkview	Lowndes	39 - 27	5.00	62.2%
78.47	09/14	Parkview	Tift County	31 - 28	4.25	60.5%
78.37	11/02	Colquitt County	Lowndes	40 - 6	26.73	93.5%
78.05	10/26	Colquitt County	Tift County	45 - 7	25.99	93.1%
77.91	11/23	Archer	Tift County	-	6.71	66.2%
77.64	08/17	Warner Robins	Tift County	40 - 29	5.43	63.2%
76.81	10/19	Lowndes	Tift County	17 - 21	2.67	56.6%
76.40	09/14	North Gwinnett	Walton	24 - 27	3.55	58.8%
76.01	11/16	Hillgrove	Walton	23 - 20	6.51	65.7%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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