Sports

Maxwell Preseason Summary: Packers start on top, AAAAAAA At-Large odds

By Loren Maxwell
Aug 15, 2016

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 421 teams throughout the 2016 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

- Colquitt County graduated many of last year's starters while Grayson gained a host of highly rated athletes and replaced former head coach Mickey Conn with Jeff Herron, a four-time state champion with a gaudy 273-51 record at six previous schools.

It's worth noting upfront the ratings do not consider any of this information. At this point, they are based purely on the historical performance of the teams, with more recent seasons carrying exponentially more weight. As the season progresses, the weight of each team's historical performance will decrease to eventually become negligible, leaving the on-field results as the primary factor in a team's rating.

Please note this is not an apology for the ratings of Colquitt County, Grayson, or any other team. They have their proper rating based on their historical performance, which is the best indicator of future performance. I am underscoring that I make no attempt to subjectively deduct or add points for any other factors outside of historical performance. While these other considerations are appropriate for subjective polls, they are not appropriate for a quantitative analysis. I can quantitatively demonstrate that Colquitt County and Grayson should be rated where they are. I cannot make a quantitative judgment on whether Mickey Conn leaving and Jeff Herron arriving will make Grayson better or worse. The season will tell us and the ratings will adjust appropriately.

- This year, the slot normally reserved for the fourth place team in Region 1-AAAAAAA will be an At-Large bid, given to the highest rated team between the fourth place Region 1-AAAAAAA team and the fifth placed teams in the remaining regions.

According to the season simulator, here are the regions to most likely receive the At-Large bid:

1 - AAAAAAA 67.8%

4 - AAAAAAA 8.9%

6 - AAAAAAA 7.5%

3 - AAAAAAA 8.0%

8 - AAAAAAA 4.2%

2 - AAAAAAA 1.3%

5 - AAAAAAA 1.9%

7 - AAAAAAA 0.5%

And here are the top teams most likely to receive the At-Large bid:

1 - AAAAAAA 47.4% Tift County

1 - AAAAAAA 11.2% Camden County

1 - AAAAAAA 9.0% Lowndes

4 - AAAAAAA 4.0% Lassiter

6 - AAAAAAA 3.5% Mountain View

3 - AAAAAAA 2.8% North Paulding

3 - AAAAAAA 2.2% Marietta

8 - AAAAAAA 1.9% Newton

6 - AAAAAAA 1.7% Collins Hill

3 - AAAAAAA 1.6% North Cobb

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 100.00%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 0 of 0 total games including 0 tie(s) (--.--%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within --.-- points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 1.50

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Colquitt County 0-0 102.56 1 Allatoona 0-0 76.70
2 Grayson 0-0 88.52 2 Valdosta 0-0 75.58
3 Mill Creek 0-0 87.72 3 Dacula 0-0 72.80
4 Archer 0-0 87.17 4 Tucker 0-0 71.60
5 McEachern 0-0 84.05 5 Northside (Warner Robins) 0-0 71.17
6 Camden County 0-0 82.02 6 Lee County 0-0 69.53
7 Roswell 0-0 81.48 7 Mays 0-0 69.37
8 Peachtree Ridge 0-0 79.65 8 Coffee 0-0 68.30
9 Lowndes 0-0 76.92 9 Stephenson 0-0 67.75
10 Norcross 0-0 74.52 10 Houston County 0-0 66.88
11 North Gwinnett 0-0 72.96 11 Glynn Academy 0-0 66.77
12 Collins Hill 0-0 71.32 12 Lovejoy 0-0 64.17
13 Etowah 0-0 69.95 13 Creekside 0-0 63.83
14 Central Gwinnett 0-0 69.65 14 Dalton 0-0 63.21
15 Walton 0-0 69.56 15 Gainesville 0-0 62.76
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 0-0 87.46 1 Cartersville 0-0 78.48
2 Ware County 0-0 72.33 2 Woodward Academy 0-0 71.93
3 Stockbridge 0-0 69.70 3 Sandy Creek 0-0 71.03
4 Kell 0-0 65.34 4 Blessed Trinity 0-0 69.44
5 Jones County 0-0 61.76 5 Marist 0-0 67.31
6 Bainbridge 0-0 60.17 6 St. Pius X 0-0 65.92
7 East Paulding 0-0 59.91 7 Jefferson 0-0 62.76
8 Starr's Mill 0-0 59.49 8 Mary Persons 0-0 57.86
9 Carrollton 0-0 56.81 9 Carver (Columbus) 0-0 56.78
10 Warner Robins 0-0 56.48 10 Burke County 0-0 54.58
11 Rome 0-0 55.64 11 Thomson 0-0 54.16
12 Carver (Atlanta) 0-0 54.28 12 Cairo 0-0 52.00
13 Griffin 0-0 54.09 13 West Laurens 0-0 49.83
14 Thomas County Central 0-0 52.33 14 Spalding 0-0 47.63
15 Dutchtown 0-0 50.44 15 Central (Carrollton) 0-0 47.32
AAA AA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Calhoun 0-0 71.40 1 Benedictine 0-0 64.42
2 Greater Atlanta Christian 0-0 66.74 2 Fitzgerald 0-0 61.06
3 Westminster (Atlanta) 0-0 61.30 3 Brooks County 0-0 57.91
4 Lovett 0-0 58.68 4 Elbert County 0-0 55.86
5 Cedar Grove 0-0 58.65 5 Callaway 0-0 50.75
6 Worth County 0-0 53.20 6 Vidalia 0-0 48.01
7 Peach County 0-0 53.05 7 Jefferson County 0-0 47.80
8 Hart County 0-0 51.29 8 Dodge County 0-0 47.16
9 Westside (Macon) 0-0 50.66 9 Rabun County 0-0 45.63
10 Pace Academy 0-0 50.44 10 Washington County 0-0 45.61
11 Adairsville 0-0 47.95 11 Laney 0-0 43.88
12 Liberty County 0-0 47.44 12 Lamar County 0-0 43.07
13 Cook 0-0 46.25 13 Early County 0-0 42.12
14 Monroe 0-0 45.40 14 Heard County 0-0 40.44
15 Pierce County 0-0 43.36 15 Screven County 0-0 38.80
A - Public A - Private
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Irwin County 0-0 45.30 1 Eagle's Landing Christian 0-0 60.39
2 Clinch County 0-0 44.80 2 Aquinas 0-0 49.46
3 Macon County 0-0 44.16 3 Prince Avenue Christian 0-0 48.92
4 Marion County 0-0 41.49 4 Mount Paran Christian 0-0 47.50
5 Charlton County 0-0 41.11 5 Wesleyan 0-0 45.30
6 Emanuel County Institute 0-0 38.63 6 Darlington 0-0 42.27
7 Commerce 0-0 37.30 7 Calvary Day 0-0 40.62
8 Bowdon 0-0 34.37 8 Savannah Christian 0-0 39.43
9 Lincoln County 0-0 33.94 9 Landmark Christian 0-0 38.73
10 Trion 0-0 32.13 10 Stratford Academy 0-0 36.63
11 Mount Zion (Carroll) 0-0 31.93 11 Mount Pisgah Christian 0-0 35.37
12 Dooly County 0-0 31.25 12 Pinecrest Academy 0-0 32.85
13 Turner County 0-0 31.09 13 Christian Heritage 0-0 30.49
14 Washington-Wilkes 0-0 28.61 14 Athens Academy 0-0 27.98
15 Manchester 0-0 28.52 15 First Presbyterian 0-0 27.96

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Colquitt County 1 - AAAAAAA 0-0 102.56 - -
2 [2] Grayson 8 - AAAAAAA 0-0 88.52 - -
3 [3] Mill Creek 6 - AAAAAAA 0-0 87.72 - -
4 [1] Buford 8 - AAAAA 0-0 87.46 - -
5 [4] Archer 8 - AAAAAAA 0-0 87.17 - -
6 [5] McEachern 3 - AAAAAAA 0-0 84.05 - -
7 [6] Camden County 1 - AAAAAAA 0-0 82.02 - -
8 [7] Roswell 4 - AAAAAAA 0-0 81.48 - -
9 [8] Peachtree Ridge 6 - AAAAAAA 0-0 79.65 - -
10 [1] Cartersville 5 - AAAA 0-0 78.48 - -
11 [9] Lowndes 1 - AAAAAAA 0-0 76.92 - -
12 [1] Allatoona 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 76.70 - -
13 [2] Valdosta 1 - AAAAAA 0-0 75.58 - -
14 [10] Norcross 7 - AAAAAAA 0-0 74.52 - -
15 [11] North Gwinnett 6 - AAAAAAA 0-0 72.96 - -
16 [3] Dacula 8 - AAAAAA 0-0 72.80 - -
17 [2] Ware County 2 - AAAAA 0-0 72.33 - -
18 [2] Woodward Academy 4 - AAAA 0-0 71.93 - -
19 [4] Tucker 4 - AAAAAA 0-0 71.60 - -
20 [1] Calhoun 6 - AAA 0-0 71.40 - -
21 [12] Collins Hill 6 - AAAAAAA 0-0 71.32 - -
22 [5] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 - AAAAAA 0-0 71.17 - -
23 [3] Sandy Creek 5 - AAAA 0-0 71.03 - -
24 [13] Etowah 4 - AAAAAAA 0-0 69.95 - -
25 [3] Stockbridge 4 - AAAAA 0-0 69.70 - -
26 [14] Central Gwinnett 7 - AAAAAAA 0-0 69.65 - -
27 [15] Walton 4 - AAAAAAA 0-0 69.56 - -
28 [6] Lee County 1 - AAAAAA 0-0 69.53 - -
29 [4] Blessed Trinity 7 - AAAA 0-0 69.44 - -
30 [7] Mays 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 69.37 - -
31 [8] Coffee 1 - AAAAAA 0-0 68.30 - -
32 [16] Hillgrove 3 - AAAAAAA 0-0 68.27 - -
33 [9] Stephenson 4 - AAAAAA 0-0 67.75 - -
34 [17] Westlake 2 - AAAAAAA 0-0 67.70 - -
35 [5] Marist 7 - AAAA 0-0 67.31 - -
36 [10] Houston County 1 - AAAAAA 0-0 66.88 - -
37 [11] Glynn Academy 2 - AAAAAA 0-0 66.77 - -
38 [2] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 - AAA 0-0 66.74 - -
39 [18] North Cobb 3 - AAAAAAA 0-0 66.71 - -
40 [19] Parkview 7 - AAAAAAA 0-0 66.30 - -
41 [6] St. Pius X 8 - AAAA 0-0 65.92 - -
42 [20] Newton 8 - AAAAAAA 0-0 65.36 - -
43 [4] Kell 7 - AAAAA 0-0 65.34 - -
44 [21] Tift County 1 - AAAAAAA 0-0 65.13 - -
45 [1] Benedictine 2 - AA 0-0 64.42 - -
46 [12] Lovejoy 4 - AAAAAA 0-0 64.17 - -
47 [13] Creekside 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 63.83 - -
48 [22] Brookwood 7 - AAAAAAA 0-0 63.79 - -
49 [14] Dalton 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 63.21 - -
50 [23] Milton 5 - AAAAAAA 0-0 63.18 - -
51 [15] Gainesville 8 - AAAAAA 0-0 62.76 - -
52 [7] Jefferson 8 - AAAA 0-0 62.76 - -
53 [16] Northgate 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 62.73 - -
54 [17] Hughes 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 62.70 - -
55 [18] South Paulding 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 61.78 - -
56 [5] Jones County 4 - AAAAA 0-0 61.76 - -
57 [3] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 - AAA 0-0 61.30 - -
58 [2] Fitzgerald 1 - AA 0-0 61.06 - -
59 [24] South Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 0-0 61.00 - -
60 [19] Lanier 8 - AAAAAA 0-0 60.74 - -
61 [1] Eagle's Landing Christian 5 - A 0-0 60.39 - -
62 [6] Bainbridge 1 - AAAAA 0-0 60.17 - -
63 [25] East Coweta 2 - AAAAAAA 0-0 59.98 - -
64 [7] East Paulding 7 - AAAAA 0-0 59.91 - -
65 [26] Newnan 2 - AAAAAAA 0-0 59.55 - -
66 [8] Starr's Mill 3 - AAAAA 0-0 59.49 - -
67 [27] South Gwinnett 8 - AAAAAAA 0-0 59.36 - -
68 [20] Drew 4 - AAAAAA 0-0 59.07 - -
69 [28] West Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 0-0 58.82 - -
70 [4] Lovett 5 - AAA 0-0 58.68 - -
71 [5] Cedar Grove 5 - AAA 0-0 58.65 - -
72 [21] Alpharetta 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 58.23 - -
73 [29] Shiloh 8 - AAAAAAA 0-0 57.97 - -
74 [3] Brooks County 1 - AA 0-0 57.91 - -
75 [8] Mary Persons 2 - AAAA 0-0 57.86 - -
76 [30] Lassiter 4 - AAAAAAA 0-0 57.16 - -
77 [31] North Paulding 3 - AAAAAAA 0-0 57.15 - -
78 [32] Lambert 5 - AAAAAAA 0-0 57.00 - -
79 [9] Carrollton 7 - AAAAA 0-0 56.81 - -
80 [33] Wheeler 2 - AAAAAAA 0-0 56.78 - -
81 [9] Carver (Columbus) 1 - AAAA 0-0 56.78 - -
82 [22] Alexander 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 56.57 - -
83 [10] Warner Robins 1 - AAAAA 0-0 56.48 - -
84 [4] Elbert County 8 - AA 0-0 55.86 - -
85 [23] Harrison 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 55.67 - -
86 [11] Rome 7 - AAAAA 0-0 55.64 - -
87 [24] Creekview 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 55.45 - -
88 [10] Burke County 3 - AAAA 0-0 54.58 - -
89 [12] Carver (Atlanta) 6 - AAAAA 0-0 54.28 - -
90 [34] Marietta 3 - AAAAAAA 0-0 54.26 - -
91 [11] Thomson 3 - AAAA 0-0 54.16 - -
92 [13] Griffin 3 - AAAAA 0-0 54.09 - -
93 [35] Cherokee 4 - AAAAAAA 0-0 53.76 - -
94 [36] Woodstock 4 - AAAAAAA 0-0 53.36 - -
95 [6] Worth County 1 - AAA 0-0 53.20 - -
96 [7] Peach County 4 - AAA 0-0 53.05 - -
97 [25] Effingham County 2 - AAAAAA 0-0 52.59 - -
98 [26] Jonesboro 4 - AAAAAA 0-0 52.42 - -
99 [14] Thomas County Central 1 - AAAAA 0-0 52.33 - -
100 [12] Cairo 1 - AAAA 0-0 52.00 - -
101 [27] Mundy's Mill 4 - AAAAAA 0-0 51.43 - -
102 [28] Sequoyah 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 51.42 - -
103 [8] Hart County 8 - AAA 0-0 51.29 - -
104 [5] Callaway 5 - AA 0-0 50.75 - -
105 [9] Westside (Macon) 4 - AAA 0-0 50.66 - -
106 [10] Pace Academy 5 - AAA 0-0 50.44 - -
107 [15] Dutchtown 4 - AAAAA 0-0 50.44 - -
108 [13] West Laurens 2 - AAAA 0-0 49.83 - -
109 [16] Wayne County 2 - AAAAA 0-0 49.81 - -
110 [37] Mountain View 6 - AAAAAAA 0-0 49.66 - -
111 [2] Aquinas 7 - A 0-0 49.46 - -
112 [17] Paulding County 7 - AAAAA 0-0 49.42 - -
113 [29] Brunswick 2 - AAAAAA 0-0 49.20 - -
114 [18] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 - AAAAA 0-0 49.14 - -
115 [30] New Manchester 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 49.09 - -
116 [3] Prince Avenue Christian 8 - A 0-0 48.92 - -
117 [19] South Effingham 2 - AAAAA 0-0 48.80 - -
118 [20] Riverwood 6 - AAAAA 0-0 48.45 - -
119 [31] Lakeside (Evans) 3 - AAAAAA 0-0 48.36 - -
120 [32] Cambridge 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 48.09 - -
121 [6] Vidalia 2 - AA 0-0 48.01 - -
122 [33] Northview 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 47.96 - -
123 [11] Adairsville 6 - AAA 0-0 47.95 - -
124 [7] Jefferson County 4 - AA 0-0 47.80 - -
125 [14] Spalding 2 - AAAA 0-0 47.63 - -
126 [4] Mount Paran Christian 6 - A 0-0 47.50 - -
127 [12] Liberty County 2 - AAA 0-0 47.44 - -
128 [15] Central (Carrollton) 5 - AAAA 0-0 47.32 - -
129 [8] Dodge County 3 - AA 0-0 47.16 - -
130 [21] Flowery Branch 8 - AAAAA 0-0 47.11 - -
131 [22] Loganville 8 - AAAAA 0-0 46.54 - -
132 [34] Centennial 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 46.35 - -
133 [13] Cook 1 - AAA 0-0 46.25 - -
134 [16] Stephens County 8 - AAAA 0-0 46.02 - -
135 [17] Upson-Lee 2 - AAAA 0-0 45.74 - -
136 [23] Locust Grove 4 - AAAAA 0-0 45.69 - -
137 [24] Grady 6 - AAAAA 0-0 45.66 - -
138 [9] Rabun County 8 - AA 0-0 45.63 - -
139 [10] Washington County 3 - AA 0-0 45.61 - -
140 [25] Veterans 1 - AAAAA 0-0 45.43 - -
141 [14] Monroe 1 - AAA 0-0 45.40 - -
142 [5] Wesleyan 5 - A 0-0 45.30 - -
143 [1] Irwin County 2 - A 0-0 45.30 - -
144 [26] Columbia 5 - AAAAA 0-0 45.29 - -
145 [35] South Cobb 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 45.04 - -
146 [18] North Oconee 8 - AAAA 0-0 45.00 - -
147 [27] Clarke Central 8 - AAAAA 0-0 44.99 - -
148 [28] Cass 7 - AAAAA 0-0 44.98 - -
149 [2] Clinch County 2 - A 0-0 44.80 - -
150 [19] LaGrange 5 - AAAA 0-0 44.70 - -
151 [20] Eastside 4 - AAAA 0-0 44.61 - -
152 [36] Sprayberry 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 44.50 - -
153 [21] Westover 1 - AAAA 0-0 44.37 - -
154 [29] Harris County 1 - AAAAA 0-0 44.29 - -
155 [3] Macon County 4 - A 0-0 44.16 - -
156 [30] Eagle's Landing 4 - AAAAA 0-0 43.88 - -
157 [11] Laney 4 - AA 0-0 43.88 - -
158 [31] Villa Rica 7 - AAAAA 0-0 43.86 - -
159 [37] Tri-Cities 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 43.53 - -
160 [15] Pierce County 2 - AAA 0-0 43.36 - -
161 [32] Southwest DeKalb 5 - AAAAA 0-0 43.20 - -
162 [12] Lamar County 5 - AA 0-0 43.07 - -
163 [22] Oconee County 8 - AAAA 0-0 42.96 - -
164 [38] Douglas County 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 42.86 - -
165 [39] M.L. King 4 - AAAAAA 0-0 42.69 - -
166 [40] Winder-Barrow 8 - AAAAAA 0-0 42.39 - -
167 [33] Miller Grove 5 - AAAAA 0-0 42.27 - -
168 [6] Darlington 6 - A 0-0 42.27 - -
169 [13] Early County 1 - AA 0-0 42.12 - -
170 [16] Jackson 4 - AAA 0-0 41.78 - -
171 [4] Marion County 4 - A 0-0 41.49 - -
172 [34] Hiram 7 - AAAAA 0-0 41.42 - -
173 [35] Arabia Mountain 5 - AAAAA 0-0 41.19 - -
174 [5] Charlton County 2 - A 0-0 41.11 - -
175 [38] Kennesaw Mountain 3 - AAAAAAA 0-0 41.00 - -
176 [23] Salem 4 - AAAA 0-0 40.74 - -
177 [7] Calvary Day 3 - A 0-0 40.62 - -
178 [17] Appling County 2 - AAA 0-0 40.61 - -
179 [14] Heard County 5 - AA 0-0 40.44 - -
180 [24] Baldwin 3 - AAAA 0-0 40.23 - -
181 [25] Pickens 6 - AAAA 0-0 39.67 - -
182 [18] Crisp County 1 - AAA 0-0 39.53 - -
183 [36] Whitewater 3 - AAAAA 0-0 39.48 - -
184 [8] Savannah Christian 3 - A 0-0 39.43 - -
185 [41] Richmond Hill 2 - AAAAAA 0-0 39.41 - -
186 [37] Statesboro 2 - AAAAA 0-0 39.36 - -
187 [19] North Hall 7 - AAA 0-0 39.20 - -
188 [42] Evans 3 - AAAAAA 0-0 39.10 - -
189 [15] Screven County 4 - AA 0-0 38.80 - -
190 [26] Luella 4 - AAAA 0-0 38.78 - -
191 [9] Landmark Christian 5 - A 0-0 38.73 - -
192 [6] Emanuel County Institute 3 - A 0-0 38.63 - -
193 [27] Northwest Whitfield 6 - AAAA 0-0 38.43 - -
194 [38] Decatur 6 - AAAAA 0-0 38.39 - -
195 [28] Troup 5 - AAAA 0-0 37.42 - -
196 [7] Commerce 8 - A 0-0 37.30 - -
197 [43] Johns Creek 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 37.29 - -
198 [29] Shaw 1 - AAAA 0-0 37.17 - -
199 [39] Fayette County 3 - AAAAA 0-0 37.14 - -
200 [30] Northside (Columbus) 1 - AAAA 0-0 37.06 - -
201 [40] Ola 4 - AAAAA 0-0 37.00 - -
202 [44] Chattahoochee 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 36.87 - -
203 [41] Lithonia 5 - AAAAA 0-0 36.82 - -
204 [10] Stratford Academy 7 - A 0-0 36.63 - -
205 [31] Howard 2 - AAAA 0-0 36.54 - -
206 [16] Model 7 - AA 0-0 36.26 - -
207 [39] Forsyth Central 5 - AAAAAAA 0-0 36.14 - -
208 [20] Jenkins 3 - AAA 0-0 35.70 - -
209 [11] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 - A 0-0 35.37 - -
210 [32] White County 7 - AAAA 0-0 35.28 - -
211 [40] Duluth 6 - AAAAAAA 0-0 35.23 - -
212 [21] Morgan County 8 - AAA 0-0 34.82 - -
213 [33] Perry 2 - AAAA 0-0 34.77 - -
214 [41] Pebblebrook 2 - AAAAAAA 0-0 34.72 - -
215 [42] North Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 0-0 34.70 - -
216 [42] McIntosh 3 - AAAAA 0-0 34.55 - -
217 [22] Central (Macon) 4 - AAA 0-0 34.39 - -
218 [8] Bowdon 6 - A 0-0 34.37 - -
219 [45] Grovetown 3 - AAAAAA 0-0 34.30 - -
220 [23] Ringgold 6 - AAA 0-0 34.28 - -
221 [43] Union Grove 4 - AAAAA 0-0 34.17 - -
222 [34] Chapel Hill 5 - AAAA 0-0 34.05 - -
223 [43] Berkmar 7 - AAAAAAA 0-0 34.04 - -
224 [9] Lincoln County 7 - A 0-0 33.94 - -
225 [35] Americus-Sumter 1 - AAAA 0-0 33.23 - -
226 [24] Southeast Bulloch 3 - AAA 0-0 33.11 - -
227 [46] Pope 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 33.00 - -
228 [12] Pinecrest Academy 6 - A 0-0 32.85 - -
229 [17] Thomasville 1 - AA 0-0 32.81 - -
230 [36] Gilmer 6 - AAAA 0-0 32.80 - -
231 [18] Dublin 3 - AA 0-0 32.38 - -
232 [44] Rockdale County 8 - AAAAAAA 0-0 32.28 - -
233 [10] Trion 6 - A 0-0 32.13 - -
234 [11] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 - A 0-0 31.93 - -
235 [19] Washington 6 - AA 0-0 31.80 - -
236 [44] Maynard Jackson 6 - AAAAA 0-0 31.77 - -
237 [25] Jackson County 8 - AAA 0-0 31.74 - -
238 [20] Spencer 5 - AA 0-0 31.70 - -
239 [12] Dooly County 4 - A 0-0 31.25 - -
240 [13] Turner County 2 - A 0-0 31.09 - -
241 [21] Hapeville Charter 6 - AA 0-0 30.94 - -
242 [26] Dawson County 7 - AAA 0-0 30.90 - -
243 [37] Ridgeland 6 - AAAA 0-0 30.87 - -
244 [13] Christian Heritage 6 - A 0-0 30.49 - -
245 [45] Cedar Shoals 8 - AAAAA 0-0 30.49 - -
246 [27] Sonoraville 6 - AAA 0-0 30.26 - -
247 [38] Columbus 1 - AAAA 0-0 30.26 - -
248 [22] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 - AA 0-0 30.18 - -
249 [23] Swainsboro 2 - AA 0-0 30.15 - -
250 [24] Pepperell 7 - AA 0-0 30.11 - -
251 [46] Riverdale 3 - AAAAA 0-0 29.33 - -
252 [28] East Hall 7 - AAA 0-0 29.19 - -
253 [39] Druid Hills 4 - AAAA 0-0 29.18 - -
254 [40] West Hall 7 - AAAA 0-0 29.01 - -
255 [25] Bacon County 2 - AA 0-0 29.00 - -
256 [47] Heritage (Conyers) 3 - AAAAAA 0-0 28.80 - -
257 [14] Washington-Wilkes 7 - A 0-0 28.61 - -
258 [41] Henry County 4 - AAAA 0-0 28.52 - -
259 [15] Manchester 4 - A 0-0 28.52 - -
260 [29] Union County 7 - AAA 0-0 28.23 - -
261 [14] Athens Academy 8 - A 0-0 27.98 - -
262 [15] First Presbyterian 7 - A 0-0 27.96 - -
263 [42] Cedartown 5 - AAAA 0-0 27.88 - -
264 [43] Richmond Academy 3 - AAAA 0-0 27.23 - -
265 [26] Metter 2 - AA 0-0 27.21 - -
266 [48] Habersham Central 8 - AAAAAA 0-0 26.88 - -
267 [30] Brantley County 2 - AAA 0-0 26.68 - -
268 [27] Bryan County 2 - AA 0-0 26.48 - -
269 [16] Pelham 1 - A 0-0 26.46 - -
270 [44] North Clayton 4 - AAAA 0-0 26.33 - -
271 [28] Chattooga 7 - AA 0-0 26.29 - -
272 [31] Redan 5 - AAA 0-0 26.23 - -
273 [16] Brookstone 4 - A 0-0 25.95 - -
274 [17] Athens Christian 8 - A 0-0 25.86 - -
275 [49] North Atlanta 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 25.78 - -
276 [17] Johnson County 3 - A 0-0 25.75 - -
277 [45] Discovery 6 - AAAAAAA 0-0 25.72 - -
278 [18] Holy Innocents 5 - A 0-0 25.62 - -
279 [46] Campbell 2 - AAAAAAA 0-0 25.54 - -
280 [47] Meadowcreek 7 - AAAAAAA 0-0 25.43 - -
281 [50] Bradwell Institute 2 - AAAAAA 0-0 25.21 - -
282 [29] Putnam County 8 - AA 0-0 25.10 - -
283 [47] Walnut Grove 8 - AAAAA 0-0 24.98 - -
284 [32] Monroe Area 8 - AAA 0-0 24.91 - -
285 [48] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 - AAAAAAA 0-0 24.87 - -
286 [45] Southeast Whitfield 6 - AAAA 0-0 24.66 - -
287 [30] Dade County 7 - AA 0-0 24.61 - -
288 [18] Seminole County 1 - A 0-0 24.23 - -
289 [33] Tattnall County 2 - AAA 0-0 24.20 - -
290 [48] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 - AAAAA 0-0 24.07 - -
291 [49] Lithia Springs 6 - AAAAA 0-0 23.89 - -
292 [34] Franklin County 8 - AAA 0-0 23.70 - -
293 [35] Bremen 6 - AAA 0-0 23.65 - -
294 [19] Hawkinsville 4 - A 0-0 23.58 - -
295 [31] Berrien 1 - AA 0-0 23.54 - -
296 [19] Pacelli 4 - A 0-0 23.51 - -
297 [32] Bleckley County 3 - AA 0-0 23.28 - -
298 [33] Douglass 6 - AA 0-0 23.02 - -
299 [20] Telfair County 2 - A 0-0 22.58 - -
300 [21] McIntosh County Academy 3 - A 0-0 22.54 - -
301 [36] Kendrick 4 - AAA 0-0 22.50 - -
302 [37] Towers 5 - AAA 0-0 22.49 - -
303 [22] Wilkinson County 7 - A 0-0 22.46 - -
304 [46] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 - AAAA 0-0 22.41 - -
305 [51] River Ridge 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 21.94 - -
306 [20] Our Lady of Mercy 5 - A 0-0 21.81 - -
307 [50] Chamblee 5 - AAAAA 0-0 21.10 - -
308 [52] Dunwoody 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 20.85 - -
309 [53] Alcovy 3 - AAAAAA 0-0 20.82 - -
310 [54] Osborne 6 - AAAAAA† 0-0 20.35 - -
311 [21] Fellowship Christian 6 - A 0-0 20.33 - -
312 [34] Northeast 3 - AA 0-0 20.27 - -
313 [51] Banneker 6 - AAAAA 0-0 20.09 - -
314 [23] Greene County 7 - A 0-0 19.73 - -
315 [38] Lumpkin County 7 - AAA 0-0 19.72 - -
316 [39] Rutland 4 - AAA 0-0 19.48 - -
317 [55] Greenbrier 3 - AAAAAA 0-0 19.43 - -
318 [35] Jordan 5 - AA 0-0 19.24 - -
319 [36] Southwest 3 - AA 0-0 19.20 - -
320 [37] Coosa 7 - AA 0-0 19.11 - -
321 [38] Banks County 8 - AA 0-0 18.79 - -
322 [40] Fannin County 7 - AAA 0-0 18.70 - -
323 [39] Rockmart 7 - AA 0-0 18.21 - -
324 [41] Dougherty 1 - AAA 0-0 17.82 - -
325 [56] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 - AAAAAA 0-0 17.65 - -
326 [24] Gordon Lee 6 - A 0-0 17.50 - -
327 [22] George Walton Academy 8 - A 0-0 17.08 - -
328 [40] Jeff Davis 2 - AA 0-0 16.77 - -
329 [41] Monticello 8 - AA 0-0 16.51 - -
330 [47] Madison County 8 - AAAA 0-0 16.32 - -
331 [25] Mitchell County 1 - A 0-0 16.25 - -
332 [26] Hancock Central 7 - A 0-0 15.90 - -
333 [52] North Springs 6 - AAAAA 0-0 15.87 - -
334 [42] North Murray 6 - AAA 0-0 15.44 - -
335 [42] Therrell 6 - AA 0-0 15.24 - -
336 [23] Walker 6 - A 0-0 15.20 - -
337 [43] McNair 5 - AAA 0-0 15.11 - -
338 [43] Toombs County 2 - AA 0-0 15.06 - -
339 [48] Cross Creek 3 - AAAA 0-0 14.92 - -
340 [53] Morrow 3 - AAAAA 0-0 14.92 - -
341 [44] Pike County 4 - AAA 0-0 14.91 - -
342 [49] Hardaway 1 - AAAA 0-0 14.77 - -
343 [27] Claxton 3 - A 0-0 14.43 - -
344 [45] Long County 2 - AAA 0-0 14.34 - -
345 [57] Apalachee 8 - AAAAAA 0-0 14.14 - -
346 [46] Beach 3 - AAA 0-0 13.87 - -
347 [28] Wilcox County 2 - A 0-0 13.59 - -
348 [29] Greenville 4 - A 0-0 13.25 - -
349 [30] Taylor County 4 - A 0-0 13.09 - -
350 [31] Atkinson County 2 - A 0-0 12.71 - -
351 [24] Savannah Country Day 3 - A 0-0 12.10 - -
352 [54] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 - AAAAA 0-0 12.04 - -
353 [25] St. Francis 6 - A 0-0 11.63 - -
354 [26] Whitefield Academy 6 - A 0-0 11.40 - -
355 [32] Terrell County 1 - A 0-0 11.24 - -
356 [33] Twiggs County 7 - A 0-0 10.65 - -
357 [34] Treutlen 3 - A 0-0 10.37 - -
358 [27] Hebron Christian Academy 8 - A 0-0 10.32 - -
359 [44] East Laurens 3 - AA 0-0 10.27 - -
360 [35] Randolph-Clay 1 - A 0-0 9.99 - -
361 [45] Harlem 4 - AA 0-0 9.93 - -
362 [46] Albany 1 - AA 0-0 9.61 - -
363 [47] South Atlanta 6 - AA 0-0 9.15 - -
364 [48] Westside (Augusta) 4 - AA 0-0 9.12 - -
365 [36] Miller County 1 - A 0-0 9.02 - -
366 [37] Chattahoochee County 1 - A 0-0 8.65 - -
367 [38] Portal 3 - A 0-0 8.42 - -
368 [47] Johnson (Savannah) 3 - AAA 0-0 8.11 - -
369 [48] Savannah 3 - AAA 0-0 8.04 - -
370 [39] Jenkins County 3 - A 0-0 7.97 - -
371 [40] Crawford County 4 - A 0-0 6.93 - -
372 [28] King's Ridge Christian 6 - A 0-0 6.92 - -
373 [49] Josey 4 - AA 0-0 6.92 - -
374 [49] Haralson County 6 - AAA 0-0 6.15 - -
375 [50] Butler 4 - AA 0-0 6.14 - -
376 [50] LaFayette 6 - AAAA 0-0 6.07 - -
377 [29] Mount de Sales 7 - A 0-0 5.96 - -
378 [51] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6 - AA 0-0 5.42 - -
379 [58] Forest Park 4 - AAAAAA† 0-0 5.17 - -
380 [30] Tattnall Square 7 - A 0-0 4.95 - -
381 [51] Chestatee 7 - AAAA 0-0 4.51 - -
382 [50] East Jackson 8 - AAA 0-0 3.72 - -
383 [51] Murray County 6 - AAA 0-0 2.81 - -
384 [55] New Hampstead 2 - AAAAA 0-0 2.50 - -
385 [52] Hephzibah 3 - AAAA 0-0 2.49 - -
386 [52] Temple 5 - AA 0-0 2.44 - -
387 [53] Armuchee 7 - AA 0-0 1.87 - -
388 [31] Riverside Military Academy 8 - A 0-0 1.42 - -
389 [41] Lanier County 2 - A 0-0 1.37 - -
390 [42] Warren County 7 - A 0-0 0.87 - -
391 [52] Stone Mountain 5 - AAA 0-0 0.34 - -
392 [56] Hampton 4 - AAAAA 0-0 -0.18 - -
393 [32] Lakeview Academy 8 - A 0-0 -0.91 - -
394 [43] Wheeler County 3 - A 0-0 -1.26 - -
395 [53] Groves 3 - AAA 0-0 -2.00 - -
396 [54] Oglethorpe County 8 - AA 0-0 -2.16 - -
397 [33] Strong Rock Christian 5 - A 0-0 -2.32 - -
398 [34] North Cobb Christian 6 - A 0-0 -2.36 - -
399 [1] Georgia Military College 7 - A† 0-0 -2.37 - -
400 [44] Central (Talbotton) 4 - A 0-0 -2.55 - -
401 [35] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 - A 0-0 -2.83 - -
402 [55] Social Circle 8 - AA 0-0 -3.50 - -
403 [54] Windsor Forest 3 - AAA 0-0 -4.68 - -
404 [45] Towns County 8 - A 0-0 -5.52 - -
405 [57] Clarkston 5 - AAAAA† 0-0 -5.62 - -
406 [46] Calhoun County 1 - A 0-0 -6.27 - -
407 [47] Montgomery County 3 - A 0-0 -6.78 - -
408 [56] Glenn Hills 4 - AA 0-0 -7.53 - -
409 [48] Schley County 4 - A 0-0 -7.88 - -
410 [55] Islands 3 - AAA 0-0 -8.95 - -
411 [56] Coahulla Creek 6 - AAA 0-0 -9.48 - -
412 [49] Baconton Charter 1 - A 0-0 -11.59 - -
413 [57] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 - AAA 0-0 -15.63 - -
414 [50] Fulton Leadership Academy 5 - A 0-0 -16.07 - -
415 [57] Gordon Central 7 - AA 0-0 -16.46 - -
416 [36] Providence Christian 8 - A 0-0 -20.68 - -
417 [2] Glascock County 7 - A† 0-0 -21.69 - -
418 [58] Cross Keys 5 - AAAAA† 0-0 -28.80 - -
419 [3] Pataula Charter 1 - A† 0-0 -29.92 - -
420 [51] Stewart County 1 - A 0-0 -31.68 - -
421 [4] Webster County 1 - A† 0-0 -36.72 - -
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAAA 100.55 80.87
2 8 - AAAAAAA 87.88 65.60
3 6 - AAAAAAA 85.10 62.77
4 1 - AAAAAA 84.42 70.28
5 4 - AAAAAAA 81.09 63.90
6 3 - AAAAAAA 80.38 61.76
7 7 - AAAAAAA 75.32 53.26
8 5 - AAAAAA 73.08 57.20
9 4 - AAAAAA 71.20 55.23
10 5 - AAAA 71.05 46.52
11 8 - AAAAAA 70.77 48.29
12 2 - AAAAAAA 70.26 52.32
13 7 - AAAA 69.39 40.92
14 5 - AAAAAAA 69.38 52.64
15 6 - AAAAAA 68.84 52.26
16 1 - AAAAA 66.72 51.73
17 2 - AAAAA 66.68 45.35
18 8 - AAAA 66.56 47.66
19 7 - AAAAA 66.35 49.63
20 2 - AAAAAA 65.46 46.89
21 4 - AAAAA 64.37 45.39
22 8 - AAAAA 64.12 39.64
23 5 - AAA 62.15 37.86
24 2 - AAAA 61.03 45.39
25 1 - AA 60.16 38.11
26 4 - AAAA 58.44 38.18
27 1 - AAA 57.91 41.63
28 3 - AAAAA 57.32 38.36
29 7 - AAAAAA 56.65 39.46
30 1 - AAAA 56.01 38.44
31 3 - AAAA 55.50 33.10
32 6 - AAAAA 53.48 34.81
33 4 - AAA 53.27 33.70
34 7 - AAA 51.84 31.16
35 2 - AA 51.65 30.30
36 5 - AA 51.47 32.79
37 2 - AAA 50.52 33.03
38 5 - AAAAA 49.98 38.85
39 5 - A 48.90 21.96
40 3 - AAAAAA 48.57 31.61
41 8 - AAA 47.18 28.60
42 3 - AA 46.89 27.77
43 2 - A 46.85 26.89
44 8 - AA 46.84 20.97
45 6 - AAA 46.78 19.10
  6 - South - AAA 61.55 34.09
  6 - North - AAA 27.68 4.16
46 6 - AAAA 44.66 28.51
47 4 - AA 43.73 17.30
48 6 - A 43.20 24.86
  6 - Div A - A 44.77 28.20
  6 - Div B - A 41.43 21.73
49 4 - A 39.87 20.62
  4 - Div A - A 40.18 22.37
  4 - Div B - A 39.51 18.59
50 7 - A 37.78 21.07
  7 - Div B - A 39.41 24.61
  7 - Div A - A 35.92 17.77
51 3 - A 37.73 17.11
  3 - Div A - A 41.57 22.23
  3 - Div B - A 32.74 11.35
52 6 - AA 37.60 21.07
53 8 - A 37.60 13.96
54 7 - AA 37.05 19.54
55 3 - AAA 30.83 9.16
56 1 - A 22.91 7.43

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
90.22 Colquitt County Mill Creek - 14.84 81.5%
87.65 Grayson Archer - 2.85 57.1%
87.42 Archer Mill Creek - 0.95 52.4%
86.07 Grayson McEachern - 2.97 57.4%
85.37 Archer McEachern - 3.12 57.7%
84.23 Colquitt County Roswell - 19.58 87.6%
83.59 Buford Roswell - 5.97 64.5%
83.07 Archer Roswell - 7.18 67.2%
83.03 McEachern Camden County - 0.54 51.3%
82.97 Colquitt County Camden County - 22.04 90.1%
82.52 Archer Peachtree Ridge - 6.02 64.6%
81.49 Mill Creek Peachtree Ridge - 9.56 72.2%
79.15 Camden County Lowndes - 3.60 58.9%
77.92 Archer Norcross - 11.15 75.3%
77.64 Colquitt County Valdosta - 25.49 92.7%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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