Maxwell playoff projections after Week 6
Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.
The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2015 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons and teams with 100 or more championship wins in the simulation are shown.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAA team).
Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by using recursive head-to-head records with all ties being broken randomly.
Class AAAAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colquitt County | 1-AAAAAA | 99.74 | 849,352 | 791,181 | 607,117 | 457,795 | 1.18 |
| Grayson | 8-AAAAAA | 93.75 | 788,042 | 609,716 | 456,808 | 220,601 | 3.53 |
| Mill Creek | 7-AAAAAA | 89.95 | 880,512 | 485,715 | 238,486 | 109,156 | 8.16 |
| Archer | 8-AAAAAA | 89.44 | 478,302 | 296,401 | 127,457 | 58,731 | 16.03 |
| McEachern | 4-AAAAAA | 88.74 | 453,949 | 273,637 | 114,019 | 50,920 | 18.64 |
| Peachtree Ridge | 7-AAAAAA | 83.40 | 705,138 | 295,280 | 113,893 | 31,266 | 30.98 |
| Norcross | 7-AAAAAA | 81.75 | 677,434 | 255,300 | 90,176 | 21,762 | 44.95 |
| Roswell | 5-AAAAAA | 82.79 | 346,855 | 216,072 | 75,362 | 19,803 | 49.50 |
| Walton | 5-AAAAAA | 80.28 | 272,413 | 159,190 | 47,371 | 10,465 | 94.56 |
| Tucker | 2-AAAAAA | 78.00 | 452,340 | 163,632 | 42,009 | 7,796 | 127.27 |
| Lowndes | 1-AAAAAA | 77.22 | 147,270 | 67,468 | 17,808 | 2,900 | 343.83 |
| Valdosta | 1-AAAAAA | 76.44 | 109,495 | 48,069 | 11,821 | 1,805 | 553.02 |
| Dacula | 8-AAAAAA | 75.82 | 99,595 | 42,493 | 9,322 | 1,534 | 650.89 |
| Camden County | 1-AAAAAA | 75.63 | 92,139 | 38,042 | 8,747 | 1,297 | 770.01 |
| Tift County | 1-AAAAAA | 74.32 | 80,316 | 31,108 | 6,804 | 932 | 1,071.96 |
| Lee County | 1-AAAAAA | 73.50 | 57,054 | 20,727 | 4,118 | 502 | 1,991.03 |
| East Coweta | 3-AAAAAA | 69.56 | 193,815 | 26,935 | 5,047 | 483 | 2,069.39 |
| North Gwinnett | 7-AAAAAA | 72.44 | 117,633 | 19,713 | 3,625 | 460 | 2,172.91 |
| North Cobb | 4-AAAAAA | 70.66 | 57,076 | 17,498 | 3,327 | 331 | 3,020.15 |
| Parkview | 8-AAAAAA | 71.43 | 45,638 | 16,223 | 2,467 | 281 | 3,557.72 |
| Newton | 2-AAAAAA | 67.47 | 211,586 | 26,671 | 3,059 | 266 | 3,758.40 |
| Collins Hill | 7-AAAAAA | 66.92 | 223,020 | 23,225 | 2,645 | 253 | 3,951.57 |
| Etowah | 5-AAAAAA | 71.68 | 38,824 | 11,594 | 2,008 | 244 | 4,097.36 |
Class AAAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ware County | 3-AAAAA | 78.63 | 631,304 | 481,131 | 293,788 | 186,856 | 4.35 |
| Northside (Warner Robins) | 2-AAAAA | 79.11 | 574,339 | 441,399 | 287,362 | 185,924 | 4.38 |
| Stephenson | 6-Div A-AAAAA | 77.47 | 551,834 | 414,164 | 269,852 | 154,583 | 5.47 |
| Mays | 6-Div B-AAAAA | 75.80 | 464,178 | 326,785 | 190,225 | 99,971 | 9.00 |
| Allatoona | 5-AAAAA | 73.36 | 592,795 | 279,990 | 146,296 | 68,914 | 13.51 |
| Coffee | 3-AAAAA | 72.03 | 481,475 | 283,647 | 131,492 | 54,171 | 17.46 |
| Stockbridge | 4-Div B-AAAAA | 71.44 | 544,998 | 275,792 | 124,564 | 51,605 | 18.38 |
| Houston County | 2-AAAAA | 71.81 | 346,639 | 214,517 | 107,830 | 43,602 | 21.93 |
| Creekside | 6-Div B-AAAAA | 72.48 | 341,160 | 209,766 | 96,983 | 43,584 | 21.94 |
| South Paulding | 5-AAAAA | 69.13 | 467,713 | 173,315 | 71,842 | 26,311 | 37.01 |
| Gainesville | 8-AAAAA | 69.39 | 376,094 | 151,228 | 59,636 | 22,507 | 43.43 |
| East Paulding | 5-AAAAA | 68.42 | 447,530 | 161,444 | 62,807 | 22,053 | 44.35 |
| Northgate | 4-Div A-AAAAA | 67.22 | 411,478 | 153,044 | 52,835 | 17,326 | 56.72 |
| Lanier | 8-AAAAA | 64.84 | 238,840 | 80,040 | 23,962 | 6,562 | 151.39 |
| Carver (Columbus) | 1-AAAAA | 62.12 | 241,597 | 56,121 | 17,182 | 3,689 | 270.08 |
| Alexander | 5-AAAAA | 62.19 | 171,628 | 42,597 | 11,001 | 2,481 | 402.06 |
| Creekview | 7-Div A-AAAAA | 61.28 | 126,555 | 42,716 | 10,329 | 2,146 | 464.98 |
| Jones County | 2-AAAAA | 61.73 | 90,219 | 30,833 | 7,557 | 1,601 | 623.61 |
| Warner Robins | 2-AAAAA | 61.95 | 87,218 | 29,743 | 7,009 | 1,507 | 662.57 |
| Glynn Academy | 3-AAAAA | 62.28 | 66,725 | 25,485 | 6,755 | 1,466 | 681.13 |
| Carver (Atlanta) | 6-Div B-AAAAA | 59.72 | 71,076 | 20,511 | 3,910 | 756 | 1,321.75 |
| Mundy's Mill | 4-Div A-AAAAA | 58.53 | 82,440 | 13,330 | 2,572 | 468 | 2,135.75 |
| Drew | 4-Div A-AAAAA | 57.61 | 76,895 | 12,705 | 2,227 | 370 | 2,701.70 |
| Starr's Mill | 4-Div A-AAAAA | 56.95 | 75,434 | 11,394 | 1,934 | 279 | 3,583.23 |
| Kell | 7-Div B-AAAAA | 58.04 | 25,553 | 7,206 | 1,341 | 215 | 4,650.16 |
| Loganville | 8-AAAAA | 55.47 | 72,602 | 9,957 | 1,675 | 189 | 5,290.01 |
| South Effingham | 3-AAAAA | 56.05 | 32,647 | 8,135 | 1,349 | 182 | 5,493.51 |
| Dalton | 7-Div A-AAAAA | 57.16 | 20,590 | 5,433 | 983 | 153 | 6,534.95 |
| LaGrange | 1-AAAAA | 53.40 | 69,617 | 8,085 | 1,090 | 120 | 8,332.33 |
Class AAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buford | 8-AAAA | 86.01 | 912,985 | 850,253 | 691,036 | 533,378 | 0.87 |
| Cartersville | 7-AAAA | 77.09 | 852,508 | 684,739 | 458,745 | 182,356 | 4.48 |
| Sandy Creek | 5-AAAA | 76.03 | 790,798 | 571,743 | 257,163 | 117,112 | 7.54 |
| Woodward Academy | 5-AAAA | 73.64 | 747,926 | 504,873 | 208,978 | 78,609 | 11.72 |
| Marist | 6-AAAA | 70.96 | 775,217 | 394,196 | 153,752 | 46,680 | 20.42 |
| St. Pius X | 6-AAAA | 66.10 | 651,365 | 244,292 | 67,830 | 16,090 | 61.15 |
| Bainbridge | 1-Div B-AAAA | 65.22 | 252,943 | 125,712 | 39,730 | 8,184 | 121.19 |
| Jonesboro | 4-Div B-AAAA | 62.51 | 295,316 | 93,795 | 27,049 | 4,458 | 223.32 |
| Mary Persons | 2-AAAA | 62.78 | 288,031 | 93,926 | 20,184 | 4,000 | 249.00 |
| Thomson | 3-AAAA | 60.81 | 344,190 | 69,253 | 18,134 | 3,161 | 315.36 |
| Burke County | 3-AAAA | 58.27 | 239,213 | 47,028 | 9,922 | 1,321 | 756.00 |
| Spalding | 4-Div B-AAAA | 57.40 | 137,762 | 35,022 | 6,607 | 765 | 1,306.19 |
| West Laurens | 2-AAAA | 57.24 | 156,056 | 36,239 | 6,116 | 752 | 1,328.79 |
| Eastside | 4-Div A-AAAA | 56.37 | 120,047 | 28,920 | 5,565 | 668 | 1,496.01 |
| Carrollton | 5-AAAA | 55.45 | 177,091 | 36,315 | 5,716 | 548 | 1,823.82 |
| North Oconee | 8-AAAA | 54.45 | 137,697 | 25,951 | 4,135 | 324 | 3,085.42 |
| Thomas County Central | 1-Div A-AAAA | 55.17 | 78,715 | 19,868 | 2,647 | 302 | 3,310.26 |
| Liberty County | 3-AAAA | 53.50 | 136,795 | 22,912 | 3,628 | 294 | 3,400.36 |
| Worth County | 1-Div B-AAAA | 55.17 | 54,667 | 15,645 | 2,592 | 281 | 3,557.72 |
| Upson-Lee | 2-AAAA | 52.42 | 82,122 | 13,277 | 1,710 | 132 | 7,574.76 |
| Stephens County | 8-AAAA | 51.40 | 81,565 | 12,852 | 1,654 | 113 | 8,848.56 |
Class AAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calhoun | 6-AAA | 76.39 | 899,689 | 828,690 | 556,073 | 415,895 | 1.40 |
| Blessed Trinity | 4-Div B-AAA | 75.62 | 779,415 | 736,039 | 461,878 | 329,154 | 2.04 |
| Jefferson | 8-AAA | 67.37 | 520,756 | 443,103 | 281,621 | 104,191 | 8.60 |
| Cedar Grove | 4-Div A-AAA | 64.05 | 452,904 | 390,195 | 221,455 | 61,328 | 15.31 |
| Westside (Macon) | 2-AAA | 60.65 | 590,895 | 404,220 | 162,948 | 36,797 | 26.18 |
| Elbert County | 8-AAA | 60.80 | 314,166 | 242,561 | 107,914 | 27,390 | 35.51 |
| Peach County | 2-AAA | 54.42 | 401,448 | 167,090 | 45,370 | 7,171 | 138.45 |
| Central (Carrollton) | 5-AAA | 54.18 | 410,885 | 141,371 | 38,224 | 5,523 | 180.06 |
| Callaway | 5-AAA | 52.61 | 349,788 | 102,199 | 24,744 | 3,253 | 306.41 |
| Adairsville | 6-AAA | 50.23 | 286,579 | 138,854 | 28,989 | 2,803 | 355.76 |
| Dodge County | 1-Div A-AAA | 50.81 | 240,273 | 50,557 | 10,549 | 1,323 | 754.86 |
| Pierce County | 1-Div A-AAA | 50.39 | 250,337 | 47,869 | 9,692 | 1,275 | 783.31 |
| Laney | 3-AAA | 46.91 | 439,035 | 55,594 | 12,355 | 1,012 | 987.14 |
| Washington County | 3-AAA | 46.07 | 420,686 | 49,729 | 10,394 | 828 | 1,206.73 |
| Hart County | 8-AAA | 49.16 | 182,019 | 35,378 | 6,081 | 700 | 1,427.57 |
| Jackson | 2-AAA | 44.45 | 255,212 | 32,293 | 4,776 | 343 | 2,914.45 |
| Decatur | 4-Div B-AAA | 45.12 | 131,602 | 27,287 | 3,832 | 234 | 4,272.50 |
| Central (Macon) | 2-AAA | 43.12 | 236,658 | 22,967 | 3,359 | 226 | 4,423.78 |
| Cook | 1-Div A-AAA | 46.37 | 44,895 | 12,169 | 2,004 | 154 | 6,492.51 |
| Pepperell | 5-AAA | 43.94 | 84,717 | 14,466 | 1,853 | 123 | 8,129.08 |
Class AA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benedictine | 2-AA | 76.18 | 875,978 | 803,798 | 746,884 | 491,153 | 1.04 |
| Greater Atlanta Christian | 6-AA | 73.58 | 881,334 | 625,646 | 572,055 | 307,319 | 2.25 |
| Fitzgerald | 1-AA | 68.57 | 940,115 | 428,818 | 379,104 | 157,944 | 5.33 |
| Brooks County | 1-AA | 53.29 | 621,466 | 163,886 | 55,083 | 9,851 | 100.51 |
| Wesleyan | 6-AA | 54.23 | 270,638 | 144,274 | 50,238 | 8,954 | 110.68 |
| Rabun County | 8-AA | 51.32 | 547,989 | 337,737 | 44,520 | 7,302 | 135.95 |
| Macon County | 4-AA | 49.72 | 441,407 | 249,510 | 31,556 | 4,253 | 234.13 |
| Pace Academy | 6-AA | 50.30 | 394,106 | 204,322 | 27,114 | 4,070 | 244.70 |
| Lamar County | 4-AA | 47.12 | 364,669 | 184,683 | 19,021 | 2,228 | 447.83 |
| Jefferson County | 3-AA | 46.48 | 363,963 | 168,444 | 15,864 | 1,789 | 557.97 |
| Lovett | 6-AA | 47.63 | 260,067 | 131,602 | 14,439 | 1,695 | 588.97 |
| Darlington | 7-AA | 45.37 | 251,192 | 119,104 | 10,550 | 985 | 1,014.23 |
| Early County | 1-AA | 45.01 | 244,155 | 77,241 | 7,898 | 771 | 1,296.02 |
| Thomasville | 1-AA | 43.16 | 210,028 | 59,983 | 5,423 | 444 | 2,251.25 |
| Model | 7-AA | 42.00 | 158,615 | 60,053 | 3,997 | 299 | 3,343.48 |
| Dublin | 3-AA | 42.57 | 112,611 | 39,754 | 3,702 | 268 | 3,730.34 |
| Bacon County | 2-AA | 42.16 | 99,264 | 29,952 | 3,381 | 247 | 4,047.58 |
| Heard County | 5-AA | 39.23 | 157,266 | 20,028 | 2,285 | 134 | 7,461.69 |
Class A-Public
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turner County | 2-A | 49.57 | 880,859 | 627,153 | 392,693 | 230,355 | 3.34 |
| Irwin County | 2-A | 50.26 | 836,054 | 580,912 | 377,467 | 229,604 | 3.36 |
| Clinch County | 2-A | 48.22 | 736,387 | 460,558 | 267,115 | 143,451 | 5.97 |
| Marion County | 4-A | 46.06 | 811,711 | 481,764 | 264,332 | 123,000 | 7.13 |
| Charlton County | 2-A | 45.80 | 752,911 | 454,748 | 222,773 | 104,096 | 8.61 |
| Lincoln County | 7-Div B-A | 46.03 | 722,434 | 423,214 | 219,420 | 102,540 | 8.75 |
| Emanuel County Institute | 3-Div B-A | 40.73 | 638,956 | 298,993 | 112,953 | 38,289 | 25.12 |
| Commerce | 8-A | 35.92 | 448,669 | 160,346 | 46,000 | 10,871 | 90.99 |
| Wilkinson County | 7-Div A-A | 35.05 | 373,989 | 129,000 | 33,167 | 7,659 | 129.57 |
| Trion | 6-Div A-A | 31.88 | 243,814 | 67,521 | 13,422 | 2,494 | 399.96 |
| Greenville | 4-A | 31.12 | 277,547 | 74,601 | 14,483 | 2,450 | 407.16 |
| Mount Zion (Carroll) | 6-Div A-A | 30.57 | 242,252 | 63,167 | 11,448 | 1,848 | 540.13 |
| Dooly County | 4-A | 30.38 | 164,711 | 41,722 | 7,420 | 1,216 | 821.37 |
| Hawkinsville | 4-A | 29.40 | 159,588 | 36,178 | 6,031 | 863 | 1,157.75 |
| Telfair County | 2-A | 28.42 | 155,459 | 32,054 | 4,952 | 687 | 1,454.60 |
| Miller County | 1-A | 22.68 | 226,984 | 31,565 | 2,996 | 259 | 3,860.00 |
| Johnson County | 3-Div B-A | 27.78 | 55,184 | 10,925 | 1,645 | 211 | 4,738.34 |
Class A-Private
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Qtrfinals | Semifinals | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagle's Landing Christian | 5-A | 61.49 | 913,693 | 767,762 | 592,748 | 447,188 | 1.24 |
| Mount Paran Christian | 6-Div A-A | 55.74 | 885,756 | 638,556 | 427,823 | 225,920 | 3.43 |
| Prince Avenue Christian | 8-A | 52.43 | 890,110 | 643,795 | 315,738 | 149,882 | 5.67 |
| Calvary Day | 3-Div A-A | 49.24 | 833,587 | 518,075 | 258,607 | 89,638 | 10.16 |
| Aquinas | 7-Div B-A | 45.61 | 698,299 | 335,255 | 133,062 | 36,270 | 26.57 |
| Landmark Christian | 5-A | 43.84 | 636,993 | 267,801 | 89,086 | 22,932 | 42.61 |
| Savannah Christian | 3-Div A-A | 41.38 | 490,754 | 173,976 | 54,481 | 11,039 | 89.59 |
| Athens Academy | 8-A | 36.43 | 526,955 | 145,776 | 32,127 | 4,512 | 220.63 |
| Pinecrest Academy | 6-Div B-A | 37.10 | 420,177 | 116,738 | 25,224 | 3,957 | 251.72 |
| Pacelli | 4-A | 35.15 | 431,797 | 107,526 | 20,998 | 2,574 | 387.50 |
| Brookstone | 4-A | 34.49 | 407,546 | 98,395 | 18,140 | 2,257 | 442.07 |
| Stratford Academy | 7-Div A-A | 35.22 | 200,516 | 52,150 | 10,520 | 1,396 | 715.33 |
| Christian Heritage | 6-Div A-A | 33.78 | 195,799 | 46,355 | 8,326 | 968 | 1,032.06 |
| Mount Pisgah Christian | 6-Div B-A | 34.61 | 138,555 | 37,937 | 7,021 | 916 | 1,090.70 |
| First Presbyterian | 7-Div A-A | 32.56 | 111,281 | 25,249 | 4,188 | 452 | 2,211.39 |
