Sports

Maxwell Opening Round Summary: Archer-McEachern, Roswell-Camden highlight great playoff pairings

By Loren Maxwell
Nov 16, 2015

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2015 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results from this past week:

- Grayson and Colquitt County continue their see-saw battle over the top spot in AAAAAA and the state overall.  Meanwhile Archer, Mill Creek, and Roswell all continue to be strong contenders while Peachtree Ridge, McEachern, and Camden County all maintain their legitimate dark horse status.  However, at least two of the above will fall this weekend as Archer takes on McEachern and Roswell hosts Camden County in contests that are coming a round too early for this year's playoffs.

- Significant underdog Rome shocked Stephenson 7-6 to knock the Jaguars out of the playoffs and the top spot in AAAAA and also take more than a little luster off previously number two Mays.  Mays has only lost once, 10-9 to Stephenson to close the regular season.  Stockbridge takes over AAAAA while Northgate is close behind.  Stockbridge topped Northgate 20-2 in in a battle of two highly rated and undefeated teams also in the last week of the regular season.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.12%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,963 of 2,136 total games including 2 tie(s) (91.95%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.09 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 1.83

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Grayson 11-0 97.44 1 Stockbridge 11-0 73.29
2 Colquitt County 11-0 93.88 2 Northgate 10-1 72.03
3 Archer 10-1 92.53 3 Coffee 10-1 68.41
4 Mill Creek 11-0 90.55 4 Ware County 9-2 67.86
5 Roswell 11-0 88.20 5 Houston County 10-1 67.42
6 Peachtree Ridge 8-3 84.47 6 Glynn Academy 9-2 67.23
7 McEachern 10-1 81.01 7 Mays 10-1 67.06
8 Camden County 10-1 78.90 8 Starr's Mill 10-1 66.51
9 Lowndes 6-5 70.03 9 Stephenson 9-2 64.61
10 Valdosta 8-3 68.77 10 Allatoona 10-1 64.38
11 Central Gwinnett 7-4 68.29 11 Lanier 11-0 63.81
12 Walton 9-2 66.59 12 Drew 8-3 60.95
13 South Forsyth 10-1 65.71 13 Northside (Warner Robins) 9-2 60.92
14 Norcross 7-4 64.70 14 Jones County 9-2 60.86
15 Lee County 6-4 64.68 15 Dalton 9-2 59.88
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Woodward Academy 11-0 71.22 1 Calhoun 11-0 68.74
2 Cartersville 11-0 66.34 2 Blessed Trinity 10-0-1 62.03
3 Bainbridge 11-0 66.14 3 Cedar Grove 9-1-1 56.36
4 Buford 10-1 63.73 4 Jefferson 10-1 54.33
5 Sandy Creek 9-2 61.93 5 Peach County 9-2 50.32
6 Thomson 10-1 59.80 6 Jackson 9-2 49.52
7 Mary Persons 11-0 59.42 7 Dodge County 11-0 46.95
8 Worth County 8-3 56.99 8 Spencer 8-3 46.50
9 Jonesboro 10-1 56.86 9 Westside (Macon) 8-3 46.33
10 Spalding 10-1 55.18 10 Elbert County 9-2 45.81
11 Liberty County 8-3 53.23 11 Callaway 10-1 45.42
12 St. Pius X 9-2 52.87 12 Oconee County 9-2 43.32
13 West Laurens 8-3 50.97 13 Central (Macon) 6-4 41.05
14 Marist 9-2 50.23 14 Hart County 7-4 40.45
15 Burke County 7-4 49.57 15 Adairsville 10-1 40.27
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Benedictine 11-0 67.52 1 Prince Avenue Christian 10-0 63.14
2 Greater Atlanta Christian 10-1 61.69 2 Eagle's Landing Christian 7-3 52.96
3 Fitzgerald 10-1 57.39 3 Clinch County 9-1 50.24
4 Brooks County 9-2 53.67 4 Aquinas 9-1 47.37
5 Jefferson County 9-2 47.09 5 Irwin County 7-2-1 44.67
6 Rabun County 10-1 46.63 6 Turner County 8-2 42.32
7 Wesleyan 9-2 45.65 7 Charlton County 7-2 41.75
8 Pace Academy 9-2 44.44 8 Emanuel County Institute 9-1 38.55
9 Early County 7-3-1 43.59 9 Mount Paran Christian 9-1 38.40
10 Macon County 9-2 42.57 10 Marion County 9-1 37.72
11 Lovett 6-5 41.36 11 Athens Academy 9-1 34.22
12 Screven County 10-1 41.13 12 Pinecrest Academy 9-1 34.00
13 Vidalia 8-3 36.66 13 Stratford Academy 7-3 33.05
14 Darlington 10-1 36.14 14 Lincoln County 9-1 32.40
15 Heard County 8-3 35.38 15 Commerce 7-3 31.93

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

Rank Team Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Grayson 8-AAAAAA 11-0 97.44 56.42 18
2 [2] Colquitt County 1-AAAAAA 11-0 93.88 57.12 17
3 [3] Archer 8-AAAAAA 10-1 92.53 60.19 12
4 [4] Mill Creek 7-AAAAAA 11-0 90.55 55.01 20
5 [5] Roswell 5-AAAAAA 11-0 88.20 51.86 32
6 [6] Peachtree Ridge 7-AAAAAA 8-3 84.47 61.28 9
7 [7] McEachern 4-AAAAAA 10-1 81.01 53.05 26
8 [8] Camden County 1-AAAAAA 10-1 78.90 60.37 11
9 [1] Stockbridge 4-Div B-AAAAA 11-0 73.29 38.09 130
10 [2] Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 10-1 72.03 39.34 119
11 [1] Woodward Academy 5-AAAA 11-0 71.22 34.66 174
12 [9] Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 6-5 70.03 68.94 1
13 [10] Valdosta 1-AAAAAA 8-3 68.77 56.41 19
14 [1] Calhoun 6-AAA 11-0 68.74 13.57 349
15 [3] Coffee 3-AAAAA 10-1 68.41 42.13 88
16 [11] Central Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 7-4 68.29 60.81 10
17 [4] Ware County 3-AAAAA 9-2 67.86 47.63 53
18 [1] Benedictine 2-AA 11-0 67.52 26.02 244
19 [5] Houston County 2-AAAAA 10-1 67.42 36.00 153
20 [6] Glynn Academy 3-AAAAA 9-2 67.23 51.41 36
21 [7] Mays 6-Div B-AAAAA 10-1 67.06 40.34 108
22 [12] Walton 5-AAAAAA 9-2 66.59 50.17 42
23 [8] Starr's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 10-1 66.51 36.75 141
24 [2] Cartersville 7-AAAA 11-0 66.34 26.49 238
25 [3] Bainbridge 1-Div B-AAAA 11-0 66.14 40.54 105
26 [13] South Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 10-1 65.71 42.72 85
27 [14] Norcross 7-AAAAAA 7-4 64.70 58.42 15
28 [15] Lee County 1-AAAAAA 6-4 64.68 54.56 23
29 [9] Stephenson 6-Div A-AAAAA 9-2 64.61 32.92 185
30 [10] Allatoona 5-AAAAA 10-1 64.38 40.75 99
31 [16] Dacula 8-AAAAAA 5-5 64.37 66.26 2
32 [17] Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 6-5 64.07 58.01 16
33 [11] Lanier 8-AAAAA 11-0 63.81 37.91 132
34 [18] Etowah 5-AAAAAA 8-3 63.81 50.59 40
35 [4] Buford 8-AAAA 10-1 63.73 22.07 279
36 [1] Prince Avenue Christian 8-A 10-0 63.14 9.29 395
37 [19] Parkview 8-AAAAAA 6-5 62.68 64.19 6
38 [20] Newton 2-AAAAAA 9-2 62.22 40.67 103
39 [2] Blessed Trinity 4-Div B-AAA 10-0-1 62.03 33.40 183
40 [5] Sandy Creek 5-AAAA 9-2 61.93 38.43 124
41 [2] Greater Atlanta Christian 6-AA 10-1 61.69 33.33 184
42 [12] Drew 4-Div A-AAAAA 8-3 60.95 41.75 92
43 [13] Northside (Warner Robins) 2-AAAAA 9-2 60.92 39.79 115
44 [14] Jones County 2-AAAAA 9-2 60.86 35.32 165
45 [15] Dalton 7-Div A-AAAAA 9-2 59.88 43.66 74
46 [6] Thomson 3-AAAA 10-1 59.80 36.20 147
47 [7] Mary Persons 2-AAAA 11-0 59.42 40.05 110
48 [21] Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 4-6 58.98 66.22 3
49 [16] Effingham County 3-AAAAA 7-3 58.35 49.16 47
50 [17] Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 8-3 57.57 45.53 62
51 [22] North Gwinnett 7-AAAAAA 5-5 57.42 61.48 8
52 [3] Fitzgerald 1-AA 10-1 57.39 34.10 179
53 [8] Worth County 1-Div B-AAAA 8-3 56.99 45.17 65
54 [23] Westlake 3-AAAAAA 9-2 56.97 36.23 146
55 [9] Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 10-1 56.86 38.61 123
56 [24] Tift County 1-AAAAAA 5-5 56.45 50.41 41
57 [25] Tucker 2-AAAAAA 8-3 56.43 33.51 182
58 [3] Cedar Grove 4-Div A-AAA 9-1-1 56.36 21.16 288
59 [18] South Paulding 5-AAAAA 9-2 56.09 40.66 104
60 [19] Creekside 6-Div B-AAAAA 8-3 55.96 41.71 93
61 [26] Newnan 3-AAAAAA 9-2 55.50 41.94 90
62 [27] West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 7-4 55.30 46.28 59
63 [10] Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 10-1 55.18 31.17 202
64 [28] Hillgrove 4-AAAAAA 6-5 54.56 52.14 31
65 [4] Jefferson 8-AAA 10-1 54.33 34.00 180
66 [20] Creekview 7-Div A-AAAAA 7-4 54.32 49.74 44
67 [29] North Cobb 4-AAAAAA 5-6 53.97 52.24 30
68 [21] East Paulding 5-AAAAA 8-3 53.93 43.41 77
69 [30] Lambert 6-AAAAAA 8-3 53.88 44.79 66
70 [4] Brooks County 1-AA 9-2 53.67 32.04 194
71 [22] South Effingham 3-AAAAA 7-4 53.56 46.92 55
72 [23] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 53.38 35.46 163
73 [11] Liberty County 3-AAAA 8-3 53.23 41.82 91
74 [24] Kell 7-Div B-AAAAA 8-3 53.12 42.21 87
75 [31] Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 3-7 53.03 62.34 7
76 [2] Eagle's Landing Christian 5-A 7-3 52.96 24.41 260
77 [12] St. Pius X 6-AAAA 9-2 52.87 30.65 204
78 [25] Carver (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 9-2 51.46 40.39 107
79 [26] Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 5-5 51.42 50.94 38
80 [32] Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 5-5 51.40 52.94 27
81 [33] Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 5-6 51.21 51.78 33
82 [13] West Laurens 2-AAAA 8-3 50.97 38.42 125
83 [27] Gainesville 8-AAAAA 8-3 50.90 39.50 118
84 [5] Peach County 2-AAA 9-2 50.32 31.23 201
85 [3] Clinch County 2-A 9-1 50.24 21.37 285
86 [14] Marist 6-AAAA 9-2 50.23 28.44 221
87 [28] Alexander 5-AAAAA 8-3 50.22 40.78 98
88 [34] South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 2-8 50.11 64.96 5
89 [15] Burke County 3-AAAA 7-4 49.57 44.69 67
90 [6] Jackson 2-AAA 9-2 49.52 29.16 215
91 [35] East Coweta 3-AAAAAA 8-3 49.19 37.26 136
92 [16] Carrollton 5-AAAA 6-5 48.88 42.09 89
93 [29] Carver (Atlanta) 6-Div B-AAAAA 7-4 48.82 37.28 134
94 [30] Warner Robins 2-AAAAA 7-4 48.33 40.70 100
95 [17] Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 8-3 48.31 36.34 145
96 [36] Milton 5-AAAAAA 4-6 48.15 52.56 29
97 [37] Hughes 3-AAAAAA 5-6 48.02 49.21 46
98 [38] Lovejoy 2-AAAAAA 5-6 47.82 49.87 43
99 [39] Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 3-7 47.76 59.19 14
100 [31] Loganville 8-AAAAA 8-3 47.70 34.39 176
101 [18] Locust Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 9-2 47.63 29.50 210
102 [4] Aquinas 7-Div B-A 9-1 47.37 13.37 353
103 [5] Jefferson County 3-AA 9-2 47.09 24.20 262
104 [32] Riverwood 7-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 47.08 32.56 189
105 [7] Dodge County 1-Div A-AAA 11-0 46.95 18.92 308
106 [40] North Paulding 4-AAAAAA 3-8 46.91 59.93 13
107 [6] Rabun County 8-AA 10-1 46.63 16.89 324
108 [41] Harrison 4-AAAAAA 5-5 46.61 44.64 70
109 [33] Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 46.59 35.54 162
110 [8] Spencer 2-AAA 8-3 46.50 35.84 156
111 [34] Paulding County 5-AAAAA 7-3 46.37 39.93 114
112 [9] Westside (Macon) 2-AAA 8-3 46.33 35.37 164
113 [10] Elbert County 8-AAA 9-2 45.81 34.16 178
114 [7] Wesleyan 6-AA 9-2 45.65 27.74 230
115 [19] Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 6-5 45.64 43.24 79
116 [35] Mundy's Mill 4-Div A-AAAAA 5-5 45.56 42.67 86
117 [11] Callaway 5-AAA 10-1 45.42 25.31 251
118 [5] Irwin County 2-A 7-2-1 44.67 28.58 219
119 [20] Cairo 1-Div A-AAAA 4-6 44.60 47.00 54
120 [8] Pace Academy 6-AA 9-2 44.44 27.52 232
121 [36] Sequoyah 7-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 44.24 48.58 48
122 [42] Northview 6-AAAAAA 6-5 43.97 42.73 84
123 [21] Wayne County 3-AAAA 3-8 43.97 53.42 24
124 [9] Early County 1-AA 7-3-1 43.59 28.01 226
125 [37] Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 6-4 43.57 36.94 139
126 [43] Centennial 6-AAAAAA 5-5 43.54 45.40 64
127 [12] Oconee County 8-AAA 9-2 43.32 24.91 255
128 [44] Cherokee 5-AAAAAA 4-6 43.31 48.53 50
129 [22] Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 6-4 43.16 37.92 131
130 [10] Macon County 4-AA 9-2 42.57 28.09 222
131 [38] Northside (Columbus) 1-AAAAA 6-4 42.35 39.13 120
132 [23] Veterans 2-AAAA 4-7 42.33 48.25 52
133 [6] Turner County 2-A 8-2 42.32 19.56 302
134 [39] LaGrange 1-AAAAA 5-5 42.04 39.96 113
135 [7] Charlton County 2-A 7-2 41.75 23.73 265
136 [45] Alpharetta 6-AAAAAA 5-5 41.68 42.77 82
137 [24] Eagle's Landing 4-Div A-AAAA 6-4 41.67 36.02 150
138 [46] Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 4-6 41.67 48.57 49
139 [47] Marietta 4-AAAAAA 3-7 41.41 53.06 25
140 [11] Lovett 6-AA 6-5 41.36 36.61 143
141 [25] Griffin 4-Div B-AAAA 6-5 41.14 35.67 161
142 [12] Screven County 3-AA 10-1 41.13 16.91 323
143 [26] Howard 2-AAAA 6-4 41.08 37.41 133
144 [27] Eastside 4-Div A-AAAA 7-3 41.06 29.12 216
145 [13] Central (Macon) 2-AAA 6-4 41.05 32.18 192
146 [40] Brunswick 3-AAAAA 3-7 40.87 52.56 28
147 [41] Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 6-4 40.79 32.28 191
148 [14] Hart County 8-AAA 7-4 40.45 34.18 177
149 [15] Adairsville 6-AAA 10-1 40.27 10.54 384
150 [42] Winder-Barrow 8-AAAAA 6-5 40.17 40.22 109
151 [43] New Manchester 5-AAAAA 5-5 40.00 40.50 106
152 [28] Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 3-7 38.95 50.78 39
153 [44] Columbus 1-AAAAA 7-4 38.79 34.50 175
154 [8] Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 9-1 38.55 8.47 399
155 [9] Mount Paran Christian 6-Div A-A 9-1 38.40 18.65 309
156 [16] Westminster (Atlanta) 4-Div B-AAA 7-4 38.23 27.97 227
157 [10] Marion County 4-A 9-1 37.72 10.35 388
158 [17] Central (Carrollton) 5-AAA 9-2 37.46 22.78 273
159 [45] Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 5-5 37.22 36.14 148
160 [18] Cook 1-Div A-AAA 7-4 37.21 29.30 211
161 [13] Vidalia 2-AA 8-3 36.66 20.98 290
162 [29] Stephens County 8-AAAA 8-3 36.60 25.81 247
163 [30] Westover 1-Div B-AAAA 2-7 36.43 48.50 51
164 [14] Darlington 7-AA 10-1 36.14 17.55 319
165 [46] Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 5-5 36.11 35.95 154
166 [31] Grady 6-AAAA 7-4 36.09 28.45 220
167 [47] Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 35.73 39.05 121
168 [48] Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 3-7 35.65 49.52 45
169 [48] Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 4-6 35.65 42.75 83
170 [49] Shaw 1-AAAAA 5-6 35.59 38.31 126
171 [15] Heard County 5-AA 8-3 35.38 20.51 293
172 [50] Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 4-6 35.14 37.12 137
173 [51] Salem 8-AAAAA 5-5 34.75 33.57 181
174 [19] Laney 3-AAA 8-3 34.35 13.28 355
175 [16] Lamar County 4-AA 7-4 34.22 26.12 243
176 [11] Athens Academy 8-A 9-1 34.22 2.45 411
177 [12] Pinecrest Academy 6-Div B-A 9-1 34.00 14.14 343
178 [52] Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 6-4 33.94 29.07 217
179 [53] Statesboro 3-AAAAA 2-8 33.84 51.73 34
180 [17] Hapeville 6-AA 6-4 33.78 23.23 270
181 [32] North Hall 8-AAAA 6-5 33.29 29.83 208
182 [20] Pierce County 1-Div A-AAA 7-4 33.24 27.95 229
183 [33] Perry 2-AAAA 2-8 33.06 46.29 58
184 [13] Stratford Academy 7-Div A-A 7-3 33.05 16.85 325
185 [49] Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 3-7 32.94 54.72 22
186 [54] Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 6-4 32.89 27.57 231
187 [55] Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 32.66 36.85 140
188 [14] Lincoln County 7-Div B-A 9-1 32.40 11.10 373
189 [56] Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 32.39 40.01 112
190 [18] Model 7-AA 9-2 32.14 19.85 299
191 [15] Commerce 8-A 7-3 31.93 13.80 346
192 [57] Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 2-8 31.82 45.49 63
193 [58] M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 31.79 38.83 122
194 [34] Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 3-7 31.79 40.05 111
195 [35] Baldwin 2-AAAA 4-6 31.71 38.19 128
196 [16] Landmark Christian 5-A 7-3 31.50 16.03 330
197 [50] South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 3-7 31.50 40.68 101
198 [21] Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 7-4 31.40 21.87 282
199 [59] Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 2-8 31.12 43.99 72
200 [17] Calvary Day 3-Div A-A 9-1 31.00 5.92 404
201 [51] North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 2-8 30.63 43.37 78
202 [60] Grovetown 2-AAAAA 5-5 30.55 34.90 171
203 [18] Savannah Christian 3-Div A-A 8-2 30.33 10.84 377
204 [36] Columbia 6-AAAA 5-6 30.06 32.17 193
205 [37] Pickens 7-AAAA 8-3 30.05 20.20 295
206 [38] Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 4-6 29.90 34.95 170
207 [22] Sonoraville 6-AAA 8-3 29.90 10.69 381
208 [23] Appling County 1-Div A-AAA 5-5 29.51 29.24 212
209 [61] Evans 2-AAAAA 4-6 29.50 32.76 187
210 [52] Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 4-6 29.40 34.73 173
211 [19] Putnam County 4-AA 7-4 29.28 21.23 287
212 [62] Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 29.17 31.56 198
213 [24] Pepperell 5-AAA 7-4 29.15 22.22 278
214 [53] Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 2-8 29.15 44.65 69
215 [25] Morgan County 8-AAA 4-6 29.06 32.88 186
216 [63] Harris County 1-AAAAA 2-8 29.04 38.18 129
217 [64] Hiram 5-AAAAA 3-7 28.93 40.97 96
218 [39] Fayette County 5-AAAA 3-8 28.80 46.31 57
219 [20] Manchester 5-AA 8-3 28.72 16.55 328
220 [54] Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 1-9 28.61 43.80 73
221 [26] Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 6-4 28.51 22.35 277
222 [40] Northwest Whitfield 7-AAAA 7-4 28.34 20.65 292
223 [55] Douglas County 3-AAAAAA 2-8 28.33 40.67 102
224 [19] Trion 6-Div A-A 7-3 27.91 12.01 364
225 [21] Dublin 3-AA 6-4 27.81 21.91 281
226 [27] Washington County 3-AAA 5-6 27.63 25.34 249
227 [65] McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 27.25 36.65 142
228 [28] Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 6-4 27.04 22.41 275
229 [41] Lithonia 6-AAAA 6-4 26.91 22.97 271
230 [22] Swainsboro 3-AA 5-6 26.85 31.40 199
231 [42] North Oconee 8-AAAA 5-6 26.79 31.97 196
232 [29] Jackson County 8-AAA 4-6 26.68 31.34 200
233 [23] Chattooga 7-AA 7-4 26.47 20.44 294
234 [56] Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 1-9 25.98 44.04 71
235 [43] Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 4-6 25.97 29.73 209
236 [57] Duluth 7-AAAAAA 1-9 24.77 54.78 21
237 [24] Pelham 1-AA 6-5 24.60 27.96 228
238 [30] Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 6-4 24.55 15.04 338
239 [25] Union County 8-AA 9-2 24.48 8.00 401
240 [26] Metter 3-AA 6-5 24.47 26.01 245
241 [66] North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 24.45 36.00 152
242 [31] Jordan 2-AAA 3-7 24.30 34.95 169
243 [67] Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 2-8 24.26 39.61 117
244 [27] Dade County 7-AA 6-5 24.01 24.29 261
245 [20] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6-Div A-A 7-3 23.62 11.09 374
246 [21] Christian Heritage 6-Div A-A 5-5 23.39 23.85 264
247 [22] Mount Pisgah Christian 6-Div B-A 6-4 23.36 19.45 303
248 [44] Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 5-5 23.19 26.19 242
249 [45] Troup 5-AAAA 1-9 23.08 46.62 56
250 [68] Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-10 23.05 51.25 37
251 [32] Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 6-4 23.04 18.56 312
252 [28] Bowdon 5-AA 6-5 23.00 21.55 284
253 [33] Dawson County 7-AAA 8-3 22.96 14.46 340
254 [69] Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 1-9 22.83 43.62 75
255 [46] Redan 6-AAAA 4-6 22.80 24.66 256
256 [47] Ridgeland 7-AAAA 4-7 22.54 26.42 240
257 [48] Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 4-6 22.15 26.86 236
258 [23] First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 6-4 21.79 14.30 341
259 [24] Telfair County 2-A 5-5 21.71 19.12 305
260 [34] Southwest 2-AAA 3-7 21.43 35.11 167
261 [29] Bacon County 2-AA 5-5 21.36 22.05 280
262 [30] McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 4-7 21.20 30.06 206
263 [25] Dooly County 4-A 7-3 20.81 10.72 379
264 [26] Brookstone 4-A 6-4 20.72 14.26 342
265 [35] East Hall 7-AAA 6-5 20.60 19.22 304
266 [31] Bryan County 2-AA 5-6 19.51 22.36 276
267 [36] Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 5-5 19.39 18.92 307
268 [70] Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 19.08 25.81 248
269 [49] White County 8-AAAA 3-7 19.06 27.08 234
270 [37] Maynard Jackson 4-Div A-AAA 6-5 18.98 20.18 296
271 [58] Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-10 18.95 65.48 4
272 [38] Franklin County 7-AAA 6-5 18.79 18.19 316
273 [27] Athens Christian 8-A 6-4 18.65 11.67 369
274 [39] Kendrick 2-AAA 3-7 18.48 35.23 166
275 [32] B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 2-8 18.48 35.67 160
276 [28] Pacelli 4-A 7-3 18.23 9.28 396
277 [33] Berrien 1-AA 2-8 18.07 36.03 149
278 [59] Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 4-7 17.72 26.85 237
279 [29] Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 6-4 17.60 13.48 351
280 [50] Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 3-5 17.56 31.02 203
281 [34] Greene County 8-AA 5-6 17.33 21.01 289
282 [40] Ringgold 6-AAA 6-5 17.12 13.01 356
283 [41] North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 3-7 17.02 26.94 235
284 [60] Rockdale County 2-AAAAAA 2-8 16.81 43.15 80
285 [42] Cedartown 5-AAA 2-9 16.75 29.24 214
286 [30] Johnson County 3-Div B-A 6-4 16.48 12.95 357
287 [61] Pope 5-AAAAAA 0-10 16.21 51.54 35
288 [31] Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 5-5 15.90 10.78 378
289 [71] Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-9 15.90 41.16 95
290 [35] Thomasville 1-AA 1-8 15.71 41.38 94
291 [36] Washington-Wilkes 8-AA 4-7 15.26 24.04 263
292 [37] Holy Innocents 6-AA 2-8 15.08 36.98 138
293 [51] Whitewater 5-AAAA 2-8 14.72 44.65 68
294 [32] Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 4-6 14.62 19.64 301
295 [38] Jeff Davis 2-AA 5-5 14.60 13.91 345
296 [43] West Hall 7-AAA 5-6 14.54 17.26 322
297 [52] Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 4-6 14.53 18.56 311
298 [44] Washington 4-Div B-AAA 3-7 13.97 25.03 252
299 [39] Gordon Lee 7-AA 4-6 13.91 16.09 329
300 [40] Bremen 5-AA 4-7 13.86 22.70 274
301 [53] Monroe Area 8-AAAA 3-7 13.81 30.04 207
302 [62] Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 3-6 13.51 24.44 258
303 [33] Randolph-Clay 1-A 7-3 13.44 4.53 406
304 [54] Gilmer 7-AAAA 4-6 13.26 20.06 297
305 [55] Southeast Whitfield 7-AAAA 5-5 13.21 12.15 362
306 [45] Banks County 7-AAA 5-5 13.12 12.95 358
307 [72] Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 1-9 13.08 35.82 157
308 [41] Seminole County 1-AA 3-7 13.01 20.88 291
309 [56] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 2-8 12.55 28.80 218
310 [73] Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 2-8 12.50 36.44 144
311 [42] Northeast 4-AA 2-9 12.36 29.24 213
312 [74] Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 0-10 12.31 43.13 81
313 [43] Harlem 3-AA 3-7 12.24 21.35 286
314 [46] Fannin County 7-AAA 4-6 12.14 13.69 348
315 [75] Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 2-8 11.93 35.86 155
316 [63] Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 1-9 11.63 39.75 116
317 [34] Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 4-6 11.52 15.52 333
318 [47] Rutland 2-AAA 1-9 11.44 36.01 151
319 [48] Beach 1-Div B-AAA 5-5 11.38 14.03 344
320 [64] Campbell 3-AAAAAA 2-8 10.81 32.42 190
321 [76] Hardaway 1-AAAAA 1-9 10.72 35.04 168
322 [35] Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 6-4 10.61 7.75 402
323 [44] Long County 2-AA 3-7 10.42 20.00 298
324 [36] Hawkinsville 4-A 5-5 10.35 9.30 394
325 [37] Terrell County 1-A 5-5 10.23 11.69 366
326 [77] River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 1-9 10.07 37.26 135
327 [78] Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-9 10.01 35.81 158
328 [45] Crawford County 4-AA† 8-2 10.00 -5.27 416
329 [49] Towers 4-Div A-AAA 2-8 9.63 24.95 254
330 [57] Chamblee 6-AAAA 2-8 9.54 27.13 233
331 [38] Treutlen 3-Div B-A 5-5 9.35 10.62 383
332 [39] Atkinson County 2-A 3-7 9.21 23.24 268
333 [46] Monticello 4-AA 1-9 8.98 25.34 250
334 [50] Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 2-8 8.45 24.47 257
335 [40] Mitchell County 1-A 4-6 8.12 11.68 367
336 [41] George Walton Academy 8-A 3-7 8.01 17.29 321
337 [47] East Laurens 3-AA 4-6 7.98 18.51 313
338 [51] Josey 3-AAA 6-5 7.56 8.72 398
339 [79] Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-10 7.55 45.74 61
340 [80] North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 1-9 7.50 34.89 172
341 [52] Rockmart 5-AAA 2-8 7.17 21.61 283
342 [42] Miller County 1-A 5-5 7.07 9.91 391
343 [81] Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-7 6.61 23.53 267
344 [43] Walker 6-Div A-A 4-6 6.33 18.45 315
345 [44] Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 4-6 6.29 15.48 334
346 [45] Taylor County 4-A 3-7 6.10 12.88 359
347 [53] Lumpkin County 7-AAA 2-8 5.70 16.74 327
348 [54] Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 3-7 5.60 17.82 318
349 [48] Bleckley County 4-AA 1-9 5.44 28.08 223
350 [46] Greenville 4-A 4-6 4.80 12.25 361
351 [55] North Murray 6-AAA 4-6 4.49 12.79 360
352 [56] Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 3-7 4.04 23.24 269
353 [58] Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 1-9 3.96 35.77 159
354 [57] Murray County 6-AAA 4-6 3.91 11.16 372
355 [49] Coosa 7-AA 1-9 3.68 26.41 241
356 [47] Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 3-7 3.02 15.23 336
357 [82] Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 1-9 2.88 43.57 76
358 [50] Chattahoochee County 5-AA 3-7 2.85 10.98 376
359 [51] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 1-9 2.85 30.16 205
360 [52] Social Circle 8-AA 4-6 2.17 10.40 387
361 [59] Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 2-8 2.12 13.48 350
362 [48] Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 4-6 1.94 10.48 385
363 [60] Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 0-9 1.76 31.97 195
364 [49] Wilcox County 2-A 2-8 1.57 22.95 272
365 [61] New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 7-3 1.33 -6.32 417
366 [58] McNair 4-Div A-AAA 2-8 1.23 15.83 332
367 [50] North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 6-4 1.12 -4.17 415
368 [53] Temple 5-AA 3-7 0.95 11.97 365
369 [51] St. Francis 6-Div B-A 3-7 -0.02 9.44 392
370 [52] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 4-6 -0.13 3.29 409
371 [53] Jenkins County 3-Div A-A 4-6 -0.34 3.07 410
372 [54] Tattnall Square 7-Div A-A 4-6 -0.37 4.44 407
373 [55] Warren County 7-Div B-A 3-7 -0.49 13.34 354
374 [59] Butler 3-AAA 4-7 -0.65 10.71 380
375 [60] South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 1-9 -0.70 16.77 326
376 [56] Portal 3-Div A-A 2-8 -0.72 12.02 363
377 [61] Haralson County 5-AAA 1-9 -0.88 17.84 317
378 [54] Armuchee 7-AA 2-8 -1.21 19.05 306
379 [62] Madison County 8-AAAA 1-9 -1.22 25.03 253
380 [83] Apalachee 8-AAAAA 0-10 -1.28 40.79 97
381 [57] Claxton 3-Div A-A 2-8 -3.27 15.40 335
382 [62] East Jackson 8-AAA 1-9 -3.54 28.07 224
383 [58] Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 2-8 -3.67 10.47 386
384 [59] Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 3-7 -4.73 8.19 400
385 [60] Central (Talbotton) 4-A 3-7 -4.91 9.42 393
386 [61] Lanier County 2-A 1-9 -6.18 24.42 259
387 [55] Oglethorpe County 8-AA 1-9 -6.33 28.01 225
388 [63] Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-10 -6.44 38.20 127
389 [63] Westside (Augusta) 3-AAA 2-8 -7.27 17.40 320
390 [62] King's Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 1-9 -7.69 18.64 310
391 [64] Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 1-9 -7.75 18.50 314
392 [64] LaFayette 7-AAAA 1-9 -8.16 19.85 300
393 [65] Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 1-9 -8.70 31.65 197
394 [65] Hephzibah 3-AAA 3-7 -8.71 2.43 412
395 [63] Lakeview Academy 8-A 2-8 -8.98 10.05 390
396 [84] Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-10 -9.16 45.86 60
397 [64] Towns County 8-A 2-8 -9.62 15.07 337
398 [85] Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 1-8 -10.07 25.94 246
399 [66] Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-10 -10.57 32.64 188
400 [56] Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 1-9 -11.94 13.40 352
401 [65] Baconton 1-A 3-7 -12.71 0.32 413
402 [66] Islands 1-Div B-AAA 1-9 -13.50 14.90 339
403 [67] Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 2-8 -13.61 10.08 389
404 [67] Chestatee 8-AAAA 0-10 -14.32 26.44 239
405 [66] Strong Rock Christian 5-A 1-9 -14.71 6.75 403
406 [67] Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 1-9 -17.55 11.25 371
407 [57] Groves 2-AA 0-10 -19.12 15.89 331
408 [68] Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 0-10 -19.20 11.00 375
409 [69] Calhoun County 1-A 0-10 -19.47 11.68 368
410 [70] Providence Christian 8-A 0-10 -21.10 11.31 370
411 [68] Glenn Hills 3-AAA 0-10 -23.50 23.59 266
412 [71] Schley County 4-A 0-10 -24.09 10.67 382
413 [69] Gordon Central 6-AAA 1-9 -29.21 9.19 397
414 [72] Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 1-9 -31.27 -0.69 414
415 [68] Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 0-5 -34.87 4.41 408
416 [70] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 0-10 -37.05 13.78 347
417 [73] Stewart County 1-A† 0-10 -43.51 4.84 405
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAA 89.69 71.44
2 8 - AAAAAA 86.98 62.81
3 7 - AAAAAA 82.95 58.60
4 5 - AAAAAA 73.29 52.04
5 3 - AAAAA 70.48 50.44
6 4 - AAAAA 67.73 43.45
4 - Div A - AAAAA 69.33 42.65
4 - Div B - AAAAA 65.66 44.01
7 4 - AAAAAA 66.65 49.35
8 5 - AAAA 66.36 40.57
9 2 - AAAAA 61.58 36.46
10 5 - AAAAA 60.93 42.04
11 3 - AAAA 60.80 46.16
12 2 - AAAAAA 60.44 34.92
13 6 - AAAAAA 60.37 42.09
14 2 - AAAA 60.07 43.73
15 1 - AAAA 58.88 39.50
1 - Div B - AAAA 63.87 41.23
1 - Div A - AAAA 54.31 38.19
16 7 - AAAAA 58.70 39.31
7 - Div A - AAAAA 62.55 43.51
7 - Div B - AAAAA 54.15 35.79
17 3 - AAAAAA 58.50 39.40
18 6 - AAAAA 58.31 36.04
6 - Div B - AAAAA 65.75 44.96
6 - Div A - AAAAA 48.74 30.10
19 8 - AAAAA 55.90 36.24
20 1 - AA 54.65 30.99
21 6 - AA 54.58 33.68
22 8 - AAA 54.17 36.07
23 2 - AAA 53.83 35.02
24 1 - AAAAA 53.10 36.65
25 4 - AAAA 53.07 31.61
4 - Div B - AAAA 56.58 32.31
4 - Div A - AAAA 49.74 31.09
26 2 - A 49.81 27.25
27 6 - AAAA 47.08 28.80
28 3 - AA 45.25 26.65
29 4 - AAA 45.22 20.09
4 - Div B - AAA 49.96 26.46
4 - Div A - AAA 38.05 13.81
30 2 - AA 43.83 20.37
31 8 - AAAA 43.49 22.15
32 5 - AAA 43.44 22.62
33 5 - A 43.29 12.24
34 7 - AAAA 42.79 20.57
35 6 - AAA 41.15 8.24
36 1 - AAA 40.34 20.72
1 - Div A - AAA 45.89 28.63
1 - Div B - AAA 30.52 8.67
37 8 - A 39.86 12.45
38 4 - AA 39.51 21.84
39 7 - AA 37.81 19.87
40 5 - AA 35.83 17.53
41 6 - A 34.91 17.16
6 - Div A - A 38.27 24.26
6 - Div B - A 30.53 9.68
42 7 - A 34.38 14.46
7 - Div B - A 37.50 13.97
7 - Div A - A 32.21 14.72
43 8 - AA 34.25 11.55
44 3 - A 30.66 8.01
3 - Div B - A 31.14 7.58
3 - Div A - A 30.31 8.32
45 7 - AAA 30.13 15.45
46 4 - A 30.03 10.83
47 3 - AAA 27.59 2.69
48 1 - A 16.87 2.16

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
09/25 Westminster (Atlanta) Therrell 23 - 25 30.80 95.6% 0.101
09/04 Central Gwinnett Mundy's Mill 20 - 35 20.90 89.0% 0.146
08/28 Richmond Academy Westside (Augusta) 20 - 27 21.60 89.7% 0.163
09/04 Bryan County Claxton 7 - 13 20.95 89.0% 0.175
10/16 Gainesville Clarke Central 7 - 44 13.93 80.1% 0.208
09/25 Swainsboro Harlem 27 - 34 16.44 83.8% 0.229
09/18 Dalton Cass 8 - 23 14.48 81.0% 0.232
09/18 Pacelli Greenville 12 - 22 15.27 82.1% 0.235
10/09 First Presbyterian Mount de Sales 21 - 22 18.02 85.8% 0.237
10/23 B.E.S.T. Academy K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 26 - 27 17.47 85.2% 0.244
09/04 Collins Hill South Gwinnett 17 - 20 15.80 82.9% 0.257
09/11 Jonesboro Eagle's Landing 7 - 17 13.36 79.2% 0.265
09/11 Northwest Whitfield Southeast Whitfield 12 - 21 13.31 79.1% 0.269
09/18 Mount de Sales Strong Rock Christian 15 - 18 14.81 81.5% 0.272
08/28 Crawford County Central (Talbotton) 21 - 30 13.08 78.7% 0.273

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
93.87 09/11 Grayson Archer 26 - 24 6.74 66.2%
86.17 08/29 Archer Peachtree Ridge 26 - 10 9.89 72.9%
85.99 11/06 Mill Creek Peachtree Ridge 20 - 17 7.91 68.8%
84.52 11/20 Archer McEachern - 9.69 72.5%
82.42 11/06 Colquitt County Camden County 33 - 14 13.16 78.8%
82.05 09/11 Peachtree Ridge McEachern 9 - 6 5.29 62.9%
80.63 11/20 Roswell Camden County - 11.14 75.3%
72.65 10/02 Colquitt County Lowndes 42 - 20 22.02 90.0%
72.42 11/06 Stockbridge Northgate 20 - 2 3.10 57.7%
72.17 10/02 Camden County Valdosta 31 - 10 8.29 69.6%
71.76 10/09 Camden County Lowndes 38 - 19 10.69 74.4%
71.74 11/13 McEachern Lowndes 34 - 11 12.81 78.3%
71.07 08/21 Roswell Lowndes 35 - 8 20.00 88.1%
70.75 09/04 Camden County Glynn Academy 24 - 17 9.83 72.8%
70.34 10/16 Grayson Central Gwinnett 35 - 2 27.31 93.9%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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