Sports

Maxwell Class A Preseason Projections

By Loren Maxwell
Aug 18, 2015

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2015 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class A GHSA teams were treated as an average Class A team).

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) classification record, and 4) random tie breaker.

Class A - Public

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rating Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Marion County 4 - A 53.99 904,048 723,478 532,717 372,717 1.68
Hawkinsville 4 - A 49.64 818,177 563,868 331,256 183,171 4.46
Irwin County 2 - A 48.93 813,399 555,993 344,712 173,264 4.77
Charlton County 2 - A 46.79 734,156 441,710 247,399 109,088 8.17
Dooly County 4 - A 44.43 710,613 401,039 177,201 71,035 13.08
Clinch County 2 - A 40.47 511,514 228,726 87,145 26,077 37.35
Emanuel County Institute 3 - A 38.91 545,256 231,453 74,980 20,368 48.10
Lincoln County 7 - A 39.39 426,159 182,484 60,622 17,132 57.37
Commerce 8 - A 37.06 552,144 211,101 62,239 14,508 67.93
Johnson County 3 - A 33.49 236,967 72,995 16,166 2,984 334.12
Claxton 3 - A 33.51 215,446 65,343 14,665 2,701 369.23
Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 - A 32.44 187,365 53,176 10,823 1,853 538.67
Wilcox County 2 - A 31.54 179,575 46,732 9,287 1,501 665.22
Greenville 4 - A 30.61 144,805 36,073 6,602 951 1,050.52
Mitchell County 1 - A 26.91 312,923 65,230 8,686 938 1,065.10
Turner County 2 - A 28.26 154,628 32,858 5,067 633 1,578.78
Trion 6 - A 28.32 140,090 30,229 4,526 568 1,759.56
Telfair County 2 - A 25.63 84,922 14,970 1,796 172 5,812.95
Schley County 4 - A 25.55 76,378 13,330 1,636 149 6,710.41
Wilkinson County 7 - A 26.93 28,414 5,523 710 86 11,626.91
Taylor County 4 - A 23.87 21,887 3,475 370 37 27,026.03
Calhoun County 1 - A 18.85 83,177 9,026 632 30 33,332.33
Jenkins County 3 - A 20.68 29,860 3,442 268 18 55,554.56
Atkinson County 2 - A 21.04 15,366 1,921 165 8 124,999.00
Hancock Central 7 - A 20.38 13,663 1,635 125 6 166,665.67
Terrell County 1 - A 14.65 28,517 2,124 120 3 333,332.33
Portal 3 - A 17.67 3,836 348 22 1 999,999.00
Randolph-Clay 1 - A 9.40 5,642 263 5 1 999,999.00
Miller County 1 - A 13.91 17,688 1,289 47 - -
Lanier County 2 - A 11.18 1,011 45 4 - -
Montgomery County 3 - A 8.61 1,434 69 3 - -
Georgia Military College 7 - A 13.20 196 17 3 - -
Treutlen 3 - A 10.59 498 29 1 - -
Towns County 8 - A -2.78 179 4 - - -
Central (Talbotton) 4 - A 3.34 18 2 - - -
Wheeler County 3 - A 2.31 38 - - - -
Twiggs County 7 - A 3.13 8 - - - -
Warren County 7 - A 1.66 3 - - - -

Class A - Private

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rating Qtr Semi Finals Champion Odds
Mount Paran Christian 6 - A 57.59 873,162 648,420 460,882 298,203 2.35
Eagle's Landing Christian 5 - A 57.95 787,493 582,179 416,314 270,509 2.70
Aquinas 7 - A 52.79 829,695 561,506 322,219 156,432 5.39
Calvary Day 3 - A 51.10 812,836 498,605 255,024 114,144 7.76
Savannah Christian 3 - A 48.21 677,998 350,378 151,929 56,308 16.76
Landmark Christian 5 - A 45.57 610,129 273,708 101,945 32,311 29.95
Mount Pisgah Christian 6 - A 44.72 546,581 230,089 80,763 24,109 40.48
Prince Avenue Christian 8 - A 42.51 677,845 291,878 86,732 22,392 43.66
Tattnall Square 7 - A 42.45 545,807 202,688 60,353 15,373 64.05
Stratford Academy 7 - A 39.51 254,968 81,119 20,221 4,218 236.08
Our Lady of Mercy 5 - A 36.74 301,202 79,519 15,647 2,648 376.64
Pacelli 4 - A 35.02 139,720 33,504 5,861 827 1,208.19
Athens Christian 8 - A 32.07 263,840 51,801 7,356 825 1,211.12
First Presbyterian 7 - A 34.19 142,262 32,506 5,267 708 1,411.43
Brookstone 4 - A 33.60 153,905 33,400 5,192 668 1,496.01
George Walton Academy 8 - A 26.79 135,414 17,960 1,625 124 8,063.52
Pinecrest Academy 6 - A 29.65 45,446 7,785 862 80 12,499.00
Christian Heritage 6 - A 29.82 41,908 7,223 820 76 13,156.89
Athens Academy 8 - A 22.51 101,345 9,486 564 25 39,999.00
St. Francis 6 - A 24.81 26,738 3,141 229 12 83,332.33
Mount de Sales 7 - A 24.47 8,645 1,002 75 4 249,999.00
Whitefield Academy 6 - A 24.16 11,230 1,334 81 2 499,999.00
Fellowship Christian 6 - A 19.69 5,842 457 25 1 999,999.00
King's Ridge Christian 6 - A 18.85 1,156 81 4 1 999,999.00
Savannah Country Day 3 - A 21.83 608 53 6 - -
Walker 6 - A 19.86 1,652 122 4 - -
Hebron Christian Academy 8 - A 6.21 1,956 43 - - -
Lakeview Academy 8 - A 5.57 506 10 - - -
Strong Rock Christian 5 - A 10.26 98 3 - - -
Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 - A -5.29 12 - - - -
Baconton 1 - A -12.26 1 - - - -
Providence Christian 8 - A -24.92 - - - - -

Most Likely Region Champions

Each region is shown with the most likely region champions and odds of each team making the playoffs.

1-A
Team Champion In Odds
Mitchell County 59.2% 80.5% 0.24
Calhoun County 20.5% 46.7% 1.14
Terrell County 9.8% 21.4% 3.67
Miller County 7.3% 12.8% 6.82
Randolph-Clay 3.2% 6.0% 15.60
Baconton 0.0% 0.0% 20,832.33
2-A
Team Champion In Odds
Irwin County 46.7% 98.7% 0.01
Charlton County 35.3% 97.2% 0.03
Clinch County 15.4% 89.2% 0.12
Turner County 0.7% 59.4% 0.68
Wilcox County 1.5% 55.6% 0.80
Telfair County 0.3% 42.6% 1.35
Atkinson County 0.1% 10.9% 8.20
Lanier County 0.0% 1.6% 61.64
3-A
Team Champion In Odds
Calvary Day 41.8% 99.9% 0.00
Savannah Christian 31.3% 98.1% 0.02
Emanuel County Institute 21.4% 95.5% 0.05
Johnson County 3.3% 65.4% 0.53
Claxton 2.1% 62.2% 0.61
Jenkins County 0.1% 21.9% 3.56
Portal 0.0% 3.9% 24.53
Montgomery County 0.0% 3.0% 32.46
Treutlen 0.0% 1.0% 102.05
Savannah Country Day 0.0% 0.8% 123.33
Wheeler County 0.0% 0.2% 620.89
4-A
Team Champion In Odds
Marion County 53.3% 100.0% 0.00
Hawkinsville 30.5% 99.0% 0.01
Dooly County 13.3% 98.1% 0.02
Brookstone 0.8% 62.8% 0.59
Pacelli 1.8% 53.3% 0.87
Greenville 0.3% 50.2% 0.99
Schley County 0.0% 38.3% 1.61
Taylor County 0.0% 13.6% 6.37
Central (Talbotton) - 0.1% 1,057.20
5-A
Team Champion In Odds
Landmark Christian 19.2% 97.7% 0.02
Eagle's Landing Christian 77.4% 89.7% 0.12
Our Lady of Mercy 3.4% 89.2% 0.12
Strong Rock Christian 0.0% 0.3% 303.32
Mount Vernon Presbyterian 0.0% 0.2% 440.11
6-A
Team Champion In Odds
Mount Paran Christian 82.0% 99.5% 0.00
Mount Pisgah Christian 14.7% 93.3% 0.07
Mount Zion (Carroll) 1.1% 59.9% 0.67
Trion 0.3% 56.8% 0.76
Pinecrest Academy 1.0% 28.4% 2.52
Christian Heritage 0.2% 25.8% 2.88
St. Francis 0.5% 25.4% 2.94
Whitefield Academy 0.1% 11.7% 7.54
Fellowship Christian 0.0% 9.2% 9.86
Walker 0.0% 2.4% 40.22
King's Ridge Christian 0.0% 1.9% 53.03
7-A
Team Champion In Odds
Aquinas 50.0% 99.6% 0.00
Tattnall Square 29.8% 98.3% 0.02
Lincoln County 8.7% 85.6% 0.17
Stratford Academy 7.6% 70.2% 0.43
First Presbyterian 3.2% 58.3% 0.72
Wilkinson County 0.5% 13.3% 6.53
Hancock Central 0.1% 10.5% 8.52
Mount de Sales 0.1% 8.9% 10.20
Georgia Military College 0.0% 0.3% 396.93
Twiggs County - 0.0% 4,974.12
Warren County - 0.0% 8,619.69
8-A
Team Champion In Odds
Prince Avenue Christian 50.6% 99.9% 0.00
Commerce 31.3% 97.9% 0.02
Athens Christian 12.7% 92.2% 0.08
Athens Academy 1.3% 88.3% 0.13
George Walton Academy 4.1% 81.0% 0.24
Hebron Christian Academy 0.0% 10.5% 8.50
Lakeview Academy 0.0% - -
Providence Christian - - -
Towns County 0.0% - -

Class A - Public

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets. The modal bracket for Class A is seeded from the modal season, which assumes every favorite wins.

Class A - Private

Modal Bracket

Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets. The modal bracket for Class A is seeded from the modal season, which assumes every favorite wins.

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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