Maxwell Class A Preseason Projections
Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.
The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2015 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class A GHSA teams were treated as an average Class A team).
Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) classification record, and 4) random tie breaker.
Class A - Public
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion County | 4 - A | 53.99 | 904,048 | 723,478 | 532,717 | 372,717 | 1.68 |
| Hawkinsville | 4 - A | 49.64 | 818,177 | 563,868 | 331,256 | 183,171 | 4.46 |
| Irwin County | 2 - A | 48.93 | 813,399 | 555,993 | 344,712 | 173,264 | 4.77 |
| Charlton County | 2 - A | 46.79 | 734,156 | 441,710 | 247,399 | 109,088 | 8.17 |
| Dooly County | 4 - A | 44.43 | 710,613 | 401,039 | 177,201 | 71,035 | 13.08 |
| Clinch County | 2 - A | 40.47 | 511,514 | 228,726 | 87,145 | 26,077 | 37.35 |
| Emanuel County Institute | 3 - A | 38.91 | 545,256 | 231,453 | 74,980 | 20,368 | 48.10 |
| Lincoln County | 7 - A | 39.39 | 426,159 | 182,484 | 60,622 | 17,132 | 57.37 |
| Commerce | 8 - A | 37.06 | 552,144 | 211,101 | 62,239 | 14,508 | 67.93 |
| Johnson County | 3 - A | 33.49 | 236,967 | 72,995 | 16,166 | 2,984 | 334.12 |
| Claxton | 3 - A | 33.51 | 215,446 | 65,343 | 14,665 | 2,701 | 369.23 |
| Mount Zion (Carroll) | 6 - A | 32.44 | 187,365 | 53,176 | 10,823 | 1,853 | 538.67 |
| Wilcox County | 2 - A | 31.54 | 179,575 | 46,732 | 9,287 | 1,501 | 665.22 |
| Greenville | 4 - A | 30.61 | 144,805 | 36,073 | 6,602 | 951 | 1,050.52 |
| Mitchell County | 1 - A | 26.91 | 312,923 | 65,230 | 8,686 | 938 | 1,065.10 |
| Turner County | 2 - A | 28.26 | 154,628 | 32,858 | 5,067 | 633 | 1,578.78 |
| Trion | 6 - A | 28.32 | 140,090 | 30,229 | 4,526 | 568 | 1,759.56 |
| Telfair County | 2 - A | 25.63 | 84,922 | 14,970 | 1,796 | 172 | 5,812.95 |
| Schley County | 4 - A | 25.55 | 76,378 | 13,330 | 1,636 | 149 | 6,710.41 |
| Wilkinson County | 7 - A | 26.93 | 28,414 | 5,523 | 710 | 86 | 11,626.91 |
| Taylor County | 4 - A | 23.87 | 21,887 | 3,475 | 370 | 37 | 27,026.03 |
| Calhoun County | 1 - A | 18.85 | 83,177 | 9,026 | 632 | 30 | 33,332.33 |
| Jenkins County | 3 - A | 20.68 | 29,860 | 3,442 | 268 | 18 | 55,554.56 |
| Atkinson County | 2 - A | 21.04 | 15,366 | 1,921 | 165 | 8 | 124,999.00 |
| Hancock Central | 7 - A | 20.38 | 13,663 | 1,635 | 125 | 6 | 166,665.67 |
| Terrell County | 1 - A | 14.65 | 28,517 | 2,124 | 120 | 3 | 333,332.33 |
| Portal | 3 - A | 17.67 | 3,836 | 348 | 22 | 1 | 999,999.00 |
| Randolph-Clay | 1 - A | 9.40 | 5,642 | 263 | 5 | 1 | 999,999.00 |
| Miller County | 1 - A | 13.91 | 17,688 | 1,289 | 47 | - | - |
| Lanier County | 2 - A | 11.18 | 1,011 | 45 | 4 | - | - |
| Montgomery County | 3 - A | 8.61 | 1,434 | 69 | 3 | - | - |
| Georgia Military College | 7 - A | 13.20 | 196 | 17 | 3 | - | - |
| Treutlen | 3 - A | 10.59 | 498 | 29 | 1 | - | - |
| Towns County | 8 - A | -2.78 | 179 | 4 | - | - | - |
| Central (Talbotton) | 4 - A | 3.34 | 18 | 2 | - | - | - |
| Wheeler County | 3 - A | 2.31 | 38 | - | - | - | - |
| Twiggs County | 7 - A | 3.13 | 8 | - | - | - | - |
| Warren County | 7 - A | 1.66 | 3 | - | - | - | - |
Class A - Private
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Paran Christian | 6 - A | 57.59 | 873,162 | 648,420 | 460,882 | 298,203 | 2.35 |
| Eagle's Landing Christian | 5 - A | 57.95 | 787,493 | 582,179 | 416,314 | 270,509 | 2.70 |
| Aquinas | 7 - A | 52.79 | 829,695 | 561,506 | 322,219 | 156,432 | 5.39 |
| Calvary Day | 3 - A | 51.10 | 812,836 | 498,605 | 255,024 | 114,144 | 7.76 |
| Savannah Christian | 3 - A | 48.21 | 677,998 | 350,378 | 151,929 | 56,308 | 16.76 |
| Landmark Christian | 5 - A | 45.57 | 610,129 | 273,708 | 101,945 | 32,311 | 29.95 |
| Mount Pisgah Christian | 6 - A | 44.72 | 546,581 | 230,089 | 80,763 | 24,109 | 40.48 |
| Prince Avenue Christian | 8 - A | 42.51 | 677,845 | 291,878 | 86,732 | 22,392 | 43.66 |
| Tattnall Square | 7 - A | 42.45 | 545,807 | 202,688 | 60,353 | 15,373 | 64.05 |
| Stratford Academy | 7 - A | 39.51 | 254,968 | 81,119 | 20,221 | 4,218 | 236.08 |
| Our Lady of Mercy | 5 - A | 36.74 | 301,202 | 79,519 | 15,647 | 2,648 | 376.64 |
| Pacelli | 4 - A | 35.02 | 139,720 | 33,504 | 5,861 | 827 | 1,208.19 |
| Athens Christian | 8 - A | 32.07 | 263,840 | 51,801 | 7,356 | 825 | 1,211.12 |
| First Presbyterian | 7 - A | 34.19 | 142,262 | 32,506 | 5,267 | 708 | 1,411.43 |
| Brookstone | 4 - A | 33.60 | 153,905 | 33,400 | 5,192 | 668 | 1,496.01 |
| George Walton Academy | 8 - A | 26.79 | 135,414 | 17,960 | 1,625 | 124 | 8,063.52 |
| Pinecrest Academy | 6 - A | 29.65 | 45,446 | 7,785 | 862 | 80 | 12,499.00 |
| Christian Heritage | 6 - A | 29.82 | 41,908 | 7,223 | 820 | 76 | 13,156.89 |
| Athens Academy | 8 - A | 22.51 | 101,345 | 9,486 | 564 | 25 | 39,999.00 |
| St. Francis | 6 - A | 24.81 | 26,738 | 3,141 | 229 | 12 | 83,332.33 |
| Mount de Sales | 7 - A | 24.47 | 8,645 | 1,002 | 75 | 4 | 249,999.00 |
| Whitefield Academy | 6 - A | 24.16 | 11,230 | 1,334 | 81 | 2 | 499,999.00 |
| Fellowship Christian | 6 - A | 19.69 | 5,842 | 457 | 25 | 1 | 999,999.00 |
| King's Ridge Christian | 6 - A | 18.85 | 1,156 | 81 | 4 | 1 | 999,999.00 |
| Savannah Country Day | 3 - A | 21.83 | 608 | 53 | 6 | - | - |
| Walker | 6 - A | 19.86 | 1,652 | 122 | 4 | - | - |
| Hebron Christian Academy | 8 - A | 6.21 | 1,956 | 43 | - | - | - |
| Lakeview Academy | 8 - A | 5.57 | 506 | 10 | - | - | - |
| Strong Rock Christian | 5 - A | 10.26 | 98 | 3 | - | - | - |
| Mount Vernon Presbyterian | 5 - A | -5.29 | 12 | - | - | - | - |
| Baconton | 1 - A | -12.26 | 1 | - | - | - | - |
| Providence Christian | 8 - A | -24.92 | - | - | - | - | - |
Most Likely Region Champions
Each region is shown with the most likely region champions and odds of each team making the playoffs.
| 1-A | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Champion | In | Odds | |
| Mitchell County | 59.2% | 80.5% | 0.24 | |
| Calhoun County | 20.5% | 46.7% | 1.14 | |
| Terrell County | 9.8% | 21.4% | 3.67 | |
| Miller County | 7.3% | 12.8% | 6.82 | |
| Randolph-Clay | 3.2% | 6.0% | 15.60 | |
| Baconton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20,832.33 | |
| 2-A | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Champion | In | Odds | |
| Irwin County | 46.7% | 98.7% | 0.01 | |
| Charlton County | 35.3% | 97.2% | 0.03 | |
| Clinch County | 15.4% | 89.2% | 0.12 | |
| Turner County | 0.7% | 59.4% | 0.68 | |
| Wilcox County | 1.5% | 55.6% | 0.80 | |
| Telfair County | 0.3% | 42.6% | 1.35 | |
| Atkinson County | 0.1% | 10.9% | 8.20 | |
| Lanier County | 0.0% | 1.6% | 61.64 | |
| 3-A | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Champion | In | Odds | |
| Calvary Day | 41.8% | 99.9% | 0.00 | |
| Savannah Christian | 31.3% | 98.1% | 0.02 | |
| Emanuel County Institute | 21.4% | 95.5% | 0.05 | |
| Johnson County | 3.3% | 65.4% | 0.53 | |
| Claxton | 2.1% | 62.2% | 0.61 | |
| Jenkins County | 0.1% | 21.9% | 3.56 | |
| Portal | 0.0% | 3.9% | 24.53 | |
| Montgomery County | 0.0% | 3.0% | 32.46 | |
| Treutlen | 0.0% | 1.0% | 102.05 | |
| Savannah Country Day | 0.0% | 0.8% | 123.33 | |
| Wheeler County | 0.0% | 0.2% | 620.89 | |
| 4-A | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Champion | In | Odds | |
| Marion County | 53.3% | 100.0% | 0.00 | |
| Hawkinsville | 30.5% | 99.0% | 0.01 | |
| Dooly County | 13.3% | 98.1% | 0.02 | |
| Brookstone | 0.8% | 62.8% | 0.59 | |
| Pacelli | 1.8% | 53.3% | 0.87 | |
| Greenville | 0.3% | 50.2% | 0.99 | |
| Schley County | 0.0% | 38.3% | 1.61 | |
| Taylor County | 0.0% | 13.6% | 6.37 | |
| Central (Talbotton) | - | 0.1% | 1,057.20 | |
| 5-A | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Champion | In | Odds | |
| Landmark Christian | 19.2% | 97.7% | 0.02 | |
| Eagle's Landing Christian | 77.4% | 89.7% | 0.12 | |
| Our Lady of Mercy | 3.4% | 89.2% | 0.12 | |
| Strong Rock Christian | 0.0% | 0.3% | 303.32 | |
| Mount Vernon Presbyterian | 0.0% | 0.2% | 440.11 | |
| 6-A | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Champion | In | Odds | |
| Mount Paran Christian | 82.0% | 99.5% | 0.00 | |
| Mount Pisgah Christian | 14.7% | 93.3% | 0.07 | |
| Mount Zion (Carroll) | 1.1% | 59.9% | 0.67 | |
| Trion | 0.3% | 56.8% | 0.76 | |
| Pinecrest Academy | 1.0% | 28.4% | 2.52 | |
| Christian Heritage | 0.2% | 25.8% | 2.88 | |
| St. Francis | 0.5% | 25.4% | 2.94 | |
| Whitefield Academy | 0.1% | 11.7% | 7.54 | |
| Fellowship Christian | 0.0% | 9.2% | 9.86 | |
| Walker | 0.0% | 2.4% | 40.22 | |
| King's Ridge Christian | 0.0% | 1.9% | 53.03 | |
| 7-A | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Champion | In | Odds | |
| Aquinas | 50.0% | 99.6% | 0.00 | |
| Tattnall Square | 29.8% | 98.3% | 0.02 | |
| Lincoln County | 8.7% | 85.6% | 0.17 | |
| Stratford Academy | 7.6% | 70.2% | 0.43 | |
| First Presbyterian | 3.2% | 58.3% | 0.72 | |
| Wilkinson County | 0.5% | 13.3% | 6.53 | |
| Hancock Central | 0.1% | 10.5% | 8.52 | |
| Mount de Sales | 0.1% | 8.9% | 10.20 | |
| Georgia Military College | 0.0% | 0.3% | 396.93 | |
| Twiggs County | - | 0.0% | 4,974.12 | |
| Warren County | - | 0.0% | 8,619.69 | |
| 8-A | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Champion | In | Odds | |
| Prince Avenue Christian | 50.6% | 99.9% | 0.00 | |
| Commerce | 31.3% | 97.9% | 0.02 | |
| Athens Christian | 12.7% | 92.2% | 0.08 | |
| Athens Academy | 1.3% | 88.3% | 0.13 | |
| George Walton Academy | 4.1% | 81.0% | 0.24 | |
| Hebron Christian Academy | 0.0% | 10.5% | 8.50 | |
| Lakeview Academy | 0.0% | - | - | |
| Providence Christian | - | - | - | |
| Towns County | 0.0% | - | - | |
Class A - Public
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets. The modal bracket for Class A is seeded from the modal season, which assumes every favorite wins.

Class A - Private
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets. The modal bracket for Class A is seeded from the modal season, which assumes every favorite wins.



