Sports
Maxwell Class AAAA Preseason Projections
Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.
The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2015 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAA team).
Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) classification record, and 4) random tie breaker.
Class AAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the quarterfinals, semifinals, and finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buford | 8 - AAAA | 97.59 | 948,712 | 922,060 | 825,938 | 759,180 | 0.32 |
| Sandy Creek | 5 - AAAA | 80.91 | 852,785 | 640,731 | 226,358 | 99,768 | 9.02 |
| Marist | 6 - AAAA | 75.95 | 837,952 | 500,393 | 248,060 | 51,552 | 18.40 |
| St. Pius X | 6 - AAAA | 72.49 | 769,991 | 384,942 | 151,680 | 25,997 | 37.47 |
| Cartersville | 7 - AAAA | 71.57 | 725,641 | 385,524 | 186,270 | 23,488 | 41.57 |
| Griffin | 4 - AAAA | 71.26 | 535,725 | 319,528 | 148,350 | 18,155 | 54.08 |
| Woodward Academy | 5 - AAAA | 69.43 | 403,301 | 194,293 | 65,908 | 8,780 | 112.90 |
| Carrollton | 5 - AAAA | 66.47 | 285,679 | 119,925 | 36,498 | 3,716 | 268.11 |
| Whitewater | 5 - AAAA | 66.05 | 276,177 | 114,028 | 33,167 | 3,389 | 294.07 |
| Burke County | 3 - AAAA | 62.03 | 397,498 | 52,598 | 13,071 | 1,445 | 691.04 |
| Mary Persons | 2 - AAAA | 62.19 | 270,597 | 75,098 | 11,002 | 1,207 | 827.50 |
| North Oconee | 8 - AAAA | 62.49 | 158,338 | 57,584 | 14,968 | 950 | 1,051.63 |
| Thomas County Central | 1 - AAAA | 61.44 | 171,082 | 53,425 | 13,080 | 937 | 1,066.24 |
| Cairo | 1 - AAAA | 60.55 | 126,384 | 38,545 | 8,764 | 604 | 1,654.63 |
| Wayne County | 3 - AAAA | 58.25 | 262,641 | 36,357 | 6,912 | 427 | 2,340.92 |
| Columbia | 6 - AAAA | 55.81 | 192,370 | 19,198 | 2,280 | 152 | 6,577.95 |
| Baldwin | 2 - AAAA | 52.77 | 86,179 | 11,334 | 1,264 | 41 | 24,389.24 |
| West Laurens | 2 - AAAA | 51.96 | 78,852 | 9,660 | 975 | 33 | 30,302.03 |
| Bainbridge | 1 - AAAA | 52.28 | 48,230 | 8,611 | 754 | 30 | 33,332.33 |
| Stephens County | 8 - AAAA | 53.41 | 43,096 | 7,946 | 925 | 28 | 35,713.29 |
| Westover | 1 - AAAA | 51.94 | 40,481 | 7,172 | 605 | 26 | 38,460.54 |
| Veterans | 2 - AAAA | 50.42 | 58,337 | 5,771 | 527 | 18 | 55,554.56 |
| Gilmer | 7 - AAAA | 50.32 | 85,186 | 5,679 | 495 | 14 | 71,427.57 |
| White County | 8 - AAAA | 50.66 | 25,730 | 3,889 | 352 | 13 | 76,922.08 |
| Troup | 5 - AAAA | 53.95 | 12,912 | 2,836 | 366 | 11 | 90,908.09 |
| Thomson | 3 - AAAA | 45.65 | 32,500 | 2,619 | 163 | 8 | 124,999.00 |
| Arabia Mountain | 6 - AAAA | 47.36 | 28,530 | 1,563 | 97 | 7 | 142,856.14 |
| Grady | 6 - AAAA | 50.05 | 57,459 | 3,931 | 330 | 6 | 166,665.67 |
| Worth County | 1 - AAAA | 48.02 | 14,986 | 2,048 | 131 | 5 | 199,999.00 |
| Pickens | 7 - AAAA | 46.31 | 31,835 | 1,937 | 137 | 3 | 333,332.33 |
| Northwest Whitfield | 7 - AAAA | 46.17 | 35,093 | 1,918 | 105 | 2 | 499,999.00 |
| Upson-Lee | 2 - AAAA | 45.97 | 24,211 | 1,512 | 102 | 2 | 499,999.00 |
| Eagle's Landing | 4 - AAAA | 46.33 | 11,828 | 1,452 | 96 | 2 | 499,999.00 |
| Eastside | 4 - AAAA | 46.97 | 12,775 | 1,659 | 88 | 2 | 499,999.00 |
| Locust Grove | 4 - AAAA | 42.83 | 5,919 | 526 | 22 | 1 | 999,999.00 |
| Fayette County | 5 - AAAA | 46.55 | 1,326 | 158 | 14 | 1 | 999,999.00 |
| Monroe | 1 - AAAA | 47.70 | 7,327 | 1,013 | 71 | - | - |
| Liberty County | 3 - AAAA | 41.21 | 15,380 | 856 | 30 | - | - |
| Jonesboro | 4 - AAAA | 43.92 | 7,716 | 689 | 15 | - | - |
| North Hall | 8 - AAAA | 43.93 | 3,424 | 285 | 12 | - | - |
| Lithonia | 6 - AAAA | 40.92 | 3,774 | 126 | 8 | - | - |
| Monroe Area | 8 - AAAA | 42.50 | 2,633 | 211 | 2 | - | - |
| Ridgeland | 7 - AAAA | 37.29 | 2,325 | 88 | 2 | - | - |
| Perry | 2 - AAAA | 38.83 | 2,869 | 64 | 2 | - | - |
| Southeast Whitfield | 7 - AAAA | 33.15 | 585 | 11 | 2 | - | - |
| Crisp County | 1 - AAAA | 40.69 | 844 | 81 | 1 | - | - |
| Spalding | 4 - AAAA | 37.06 | 1,200 | 56 | 1 | - | - |
| Americus-Sumter | 1 - AAAA | 36.27 | 523 | 23 | - | - | - |
| Riverdale | 4 - AAAA | 33.76 | 417 | 17 | - | - | - |
| Madison County | 8 - AAAA | 36.06 | 191 | 10 | - | - | - |
| Henry County | 4 - AAAA | 30.55 | 122 | 7 | - | - | - |
| Pike County | 4 - AAAA | 28.21 | 41 | 5 | - | - | - |
| Chamblee | 6 - AAAA | 31.27 | 74 | 4 | - | - | - |
| Chestatee | 8 - AAAA | 32.79 | 77 | 2 | - | - | - |
| Howard | 2 - AAAA | 29.40 | 68 | 1 | - | - | - |
| Walnut Grove | 4 - AAAA | 26.92 | 17 | 1 | - | - | - |
| Heritage (Ringgold) | 7 - AAAA | 27.49 | 52 | - | - | - | - |
| Mount Zion (Jonesboro) | 4 - AAAA | 22.11 | 2 | - | - | - | - |
| LaFayette | 7 - AAAA | 17.98 | 1 | - | - | - | - |
| Redan | 6 - AAAA | 22.28 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Albany | 1 - AAAA | 21.27 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Dougherty | 1 - AAAA | 19.27 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Johnson (Gainesville) | 8 - AAAA | 19.23 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Stone Mountain | 6 - AAAA | 14.13 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Hampton | 4 - AAAA | 5.37 | - | - | - | - | - |
| New Hampstead | 3 - AAAA | -1.35 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Windsor Forest | 3 - AAAA | -3.56 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Cross Keys | 6 - AAAA | -20.34 | - | - | - | - | - |
Most Likely Region Seeding
Each region is shown with the most likely region seeding orders and odds of each team making the playoffs.
| 1-AAAA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed Orders | ||||
| Pct | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| 3.2% | Thomas County Central | Bainbridge | Cairo | Westover |
| 2.7% | Thomas County Central | Westover | Cairo | Bainbridge |
| 2.7% | Cairo | Bainbridge | Thomas County Central | Westover |
| 2.7% | Thomas County Central | Bainbridge | Cairo | Monroe |
| Each Team's Odds | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Avg Fin | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | In | Odds |
| Div A | |||||||
| Thomas County Central | 1.60 | 53.8% | 35.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 87.5% | 0.14 |
| Cairo | 1.80 | 39.5% | 44.4% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 82.8% | 0.21 |
| Monroe | 3.08 | 5.1% | 15.0% | 49.6% | 27.0% | 33.1% | 2.03 |
| Crisp County | 3.66 | 1.6% | 5.4% | 27.6% | 56.1% | 10.8% | 8.22 |
| Albany | 4.85 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 11.4% | 0.1% | 1,065.10 |
| Div B | |||||||
| Bainbridge | 1.93 | 42.2% | 30.9% | 19.0% | 7.4% | 68.7% | 0.46 |
| Westover | 2.07 | 34.7% | 33.4% | 22.6% | 8.5% | 63.9% | 0.56 |
| Worth County | 2.55 | 19.6% | 26.8% | 34.2% | 17.3% | 44.2% | 1.26 |
| Americus-Sumter | 3.62 | 3.6% | 8.6% | 22.6% | 52.9% | 8.8% | 10.42 |
| Dougherty | 4.82 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 14.0% | 0.1% | 937.09 |
| 2-AAAA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed Orders | ||||
| Pct | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| 3.9% | Mary Persons | West Laurens | Baldwin | Veterans |
| 3.8% | Mary Persons | Baldwin | West Laurens | Veterans |
| 3.5% | Mary Persons | Baldwin | Veterans | West Laurens |
| 3.0% | Mary Persons | West Laurens | Veterans | Baldwin |
| Each Team's Odds | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Avg Fin | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | In | Odds |
| Mary Persons | 1.69 | 59.4% | 22.6% | 10.8% | 4.9% | 97.7% | 0.02 |
| Baldwin | 3.14 | 13.5% | 24.1% | 23.3% | 19.9% | 80.8% | 0.24 |
| West Laurens | 3.16 | 14.2% | 23.3% | 22.7% | 19.7% | 79.9% | 0.25 |
| Veterans | 3.62 | 8.6% | 17.2% | 21.0% | 23.4% | 70.2% | 0.42 |
| Upson-Lee | 4.23 | 3.8% | 10.8% | 16.9% | 21.0% | 52.5% | 0.90 |
| Perry | 5.56 | 0.4% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 9.4% | 16.6% | 5.02 |
| Howard | 6.60 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 43.80 |
| 3-AAAA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed Orders | ||||
| Pct | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| 25.1% | Burke County | Wayne County | Thomson | Liberty County |
| 15.2% | Burke County | Wayne County | Liberty County | Thomson |
| 14.6% | Wayne County | Burke County | Liberty County | Thomson |
| 13.8% | Wayne County | Burke County | Thomson | Liberty County |
| Each Team's Odds | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Avg Fin | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | In | Odds |
| Burke County | 1.58 | 56.4% | 31.8% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 100.0% | 0.00 |
| Wayne County | 1.89 | 35.2% | 45.7% | 14.0% | 5.1% | 100.0% | 0.00 |
| Thomson | 3.17 | 5.0% | 13.5% | 42.1% | 39.0% | 99.5% | 0.01 |
| Liberty County | 3.38 | 3.4% | 9.0% | 34.7% | 52.0% | 99.1% | 0.01 |
| Windsor Forest | 4.98 | - | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 68.38 |
| New Hampstead | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | - |
| 4-AAAA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed Orders | ||||
| Pct | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| 4.1% | Griffin | Eastside | Eagle's Landing | Locust Grove |
| 3.9% | Griffin | Locust Grove | Eagle's Landing | Eastside |
| 3.8% | Griffin | Eagle's Landing | Eastside | Locust Grove |
| 3.8% | Griffin | Eagle's Landing | Locust Grove | Eastside |
| Each Team's Odds | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Avg Fin | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | In | Odds |
| Div A | |||||||
| Eagle's Landing | 2.12 | 34.6% | 31.8% | 23.1% | 8.2% | 70.8% | 0.41 |
| Eastside | 2.12 | 35.9% | 29.5% | 24.1% | 8.3% | 71.7% | 0.40 |
| Locust Grove | 2.39 | 26.1% | 29.9% | 27.5% | 11.7% | 59.1% | 0.69 |
| Henry County | 4.00 | 2.5% | 6.1% | 17.0% | 41.8% | 8.9% | 10.30 |
| Walnut Grove | 4.50 | 0.9% | 2.7% | 8.2% | 29.1% | 3.2% | 30.48 |
| Hampton | 5.88 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 20,832.33 |
| Div B | |||||||
| Griffin | 1.06 | 93.9% | 5.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 99.7% | 0.00 |
| Jonesboro | 2.71 | 4.2% | 49.8% | 25.1% | 13.5% | 46.3% | 1.16 |
| Spalding | 3.42 | 1.2% | 23.0% | 32.3% | 24.9% | 22.5% | 3.45 |
| Riverdale | 3.80 | 0.5% | 15.0% | 26.6% | 29.6% | 13.6% | 6.37 |
| Pike County | 4.60 | 0.1% | 5.4% | 12.0% | 22.8% | 3.8% | 25.30 |
| Mount Zion (Jonesboro) | 5.40 | 0.0% | 1.0% | 3.6% | 9.1% | 0.6% | 162.56 |
| 5-AAAA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed Orders | ||||
| Pct | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| 9.5% | Sandy Creek | Woodward Academy | Carrollton | Whitewater |
| 7.9% | Sandy Creek | Woodward Academy | Whitewater | Carrollton |
| 7.3% | Sandy Creek | Whitewater | Woodward Academy | Carrollton |
| 7.0% | Sandy Creek | Carrollton | Woodward Academy | Whitewater |
| Each Team's Odds | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Avg Fin | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | In | Odds |
| Sandy Creek | 1.44 | 68.4% | 22.7% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 99.5% | 0.00 |
| Woodward Academy | 2.82 | 15.2% | 28.5% | 26.3% | 20.5% | 90.5% | 0.10 |
| Carrollton | 3.14 | 7.7% | 23.4% | 30.7% | 26.0% | 87.8% | 0.14 |
| Whitewater | 3.16 | 8.3% | 22.7% | 29.5% | 26.9% | 87.4% | 0.14 |
| Troup | 4.93 | 0.4% | 2.2% | 5.7% | 17.4% | 25.6% | 2.91 |
| Fayette County | 5.51 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 9.97 |
| 6-AAAA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed Orders | ||||
| Pct | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| 10.9% | Marist | St. Pius X | Columbia | Grady |
| 8.9% | St. Pius X | Marist | Columbia | Grady |
| 8.0% | Marist | St. Pius X | Columbia | Arabia Mountain |
| 6.8% | Marist | St. Pius X | Grady | Columbia |
| Each Team's Odds | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Avg Fin | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | In | Odds |
| Marist | 1.55 | 54.5% | 37.4% | 6.7% | 1.2% | 99.8% | 0.00 |
| St. Pius X | 1.74 | 42.1% | 45.3% | 10.0% | 2.1% | 99.5% | 0.00 |
| Columbia | 3.53 | 2.5% | 11.1% | 42.8% | 25.1% | 81.6% | 0.23 |
| Grady | 4.34 | 0.5% | 3.6% | 21.5% | 31.8% | 57.4% | 0.74 |
| Arabia Mountain | 4.73 | 0.3% | 2.1% | 14.3% | 25.9% | 42.5% | 1.35 |
| Lithonia | 5.67 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 4.4% | 11.7% | 16.5% | 5.06 |
| Chamblee | 6.95 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 40.50 |
| Redan | 7.92 | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 510.25 |
| Stone Mountain | 8.57 | - | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7,193.24 |
| Cross Keys | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0.00 |
| 7-AAAA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed Orders | ||||
| Pct | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| 9.9% | Cartersville | Gilmer | Northwest Whitfield | Pickens |
| 8.7% | Cartersville | Gilmer | Pickens | Northwest Whitfield |
| 7.8% | Cartersville | Northwest Whitfield | Gilmer | Pickens |
| 5.9% | Cartersville | Pickens | Gilmer | Northwest Whitfield |
| Each Team's Odds | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Avg Fin | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | In | Odds |
| Cartersville | 1.15 | 87.9% | 10.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 100.0% | 0.00 |
| Gilmer | 2.86 | 6.1% | 40.4% | 28.0% | 16.2% | 90.6% | 0.10 |
| Northwest Whitfield | 3.45 | 2.8% | 24.1% | 28.6% | 24.0% | 79.5% | 0.26 |
| Pickens | 3.63 | 2.9% | 19.9% | 25.9% | 26.1% | 74.8% | 0.34 |
| Ridgeland | 5.06 | 0.3% | 3.8% | 9.6% | 18.5% | 32.3% | 2.10 |
| Southeast Whitfield | 5.73 | 0.1% | 1.5% | 4.9% | 10.7% | 17.2% | 4.83 |
| Heritage (Ringgold) | 6.61 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 18.27 |
| LaFayette | 7.50 | - | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 175.55 |
| 8-AAAA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed Orders | ||||
| Pct | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| 14.8% | Buford | North Oconee | Stephens County | White County |
| 12.8% | Buford | North Oconee | White County | Stephens County |
| 6.3% | Buford | Stephens County | North Oconee | White County |
| 5.6% | Buford | North Oconee | Stephens County | Monroe Area |
| Each Team's Odds | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Avg Fin | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | In | Odds |
| Buford | 1.03 | 97.4% | 2.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.00 |
| North Oconee | 2.49 | 2.0% | 64.1% | 22.1% | 8.1% | 96.3% | 0.04 |
| Stephens County | 3.68 | 0.3% | 16.8% | 33.4% | 25.9% | 76.5% | 0.31 |
| White County | 4.04 | 0.2% | 12.0% | 26.6% | 28.4% | 67.2% | 0.49 |
| North Hall | 5.48 | 0.0% | 2.2% | 8.1% | 15.0% | 25.3% | 2.96 |
| Monroe Area | 5.51 | 0.0% | 2.1% | 7.4% | 15.4% | 24.9% | 3.02 |
| Madison County | 6.73 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 14.65 |
| Chestatee | 7.05 | - | 0.1% | 0.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 28.52 |
| Johnson (Gainesville) | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0.00 |
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets. The modal bracket is seeded from the most likely region seeds and assumes every favorite wins.
