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Maxwell 2018 season summary: And that’s why they play the games . . .

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 422 teams throughout the 2018 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the player roster or coaching staff.

Interesting results:

- What an interesting finish to a rather staid season -- After so much stability at the top for the majority of the season, there was little to help us anticipate some significant upsets this past weekend, specifically Milton’s defeat of Colquitt County, Bainbridge’s victory over Warner Robins, Heard County’s surprise over Rockmart, and Clinch County’s downing of Irwin County.  In fact two of those were rematches of lopsided regular season losses.

How big were those upsets?  If all four of those games were to be played again, the computer would still pick the same favorites (albeit to a lesser degree this time!).

- Colquitt County’s loss dropped them below a rating of 100 and removed them not only from consideration of this season’s national champion, but from the discussion of whether this was the best Packer team ever.

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However, four state champions, and 12 other schools, put out their best product ever this season:

Current Previous
Season School Rating Record Playoffs Coach Season Rating Record Playoffs Coach
2018 Blessed Trinity 86.37 15-0-0 Champ Tim McFarlin 2014 79.07 13-1-0 SF Tim McFarlin
2018 Cedar Grove 79.92 14-1-0 Champ Jimmy Smith 1990 79.72 11-1-0 2nd Harry Newberry
2018 Lee County 88.37 15-0-0 Champ Dean Fabrizio 2005 83.41 10-2-0 2nd David Johnson
2018 Milton 85.35 13-2-0 Champ Adam Clack 2014 82.14 11-2-0 QF Howie DeCristofaro

- Bainbridge was not only one of the big surprises this past week, but in the playoffs in general.  However, of the 2,296 games played, the computer found their 23-0 loss to Crisp County to be the most unlikely result of the entire season.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.14%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,130 of 2,296 total games including 0 tie(s) (92.77%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.93 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. 

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.16

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Colquitt County14-195.181Lee County15-088.37
2Milton13-285.352Northside (Warner Robins)9-666.73
3Parkview11-185.163Creekview12-163.64
4Archer11-384.094Dacula11-363.09
5Grayson10-381.355Valdosta8-563.01
6North Gwinnett10-379.396Allatoona8-457.51
7Lowndes10-479.287Sequoyah10-355.57
8Hillgrove12-178.888Coffee9-454.57
9Tift County8-576.599Lanier10-454.52
10Walton10-275.2610Harrison9-354.45
11McEachern8-473.2811Glynn Academy7-551.76
12Camden County7-471.8512Johns Creek9-250.63
13Roswell9-269.9613Habersham Central7-546.85
14Mill Creek8-469.2314Creekside8-446.33
15Marietta5-667.5615Centennial7-443.89
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Warner Robins13-277.861Blessed Trinity15-086.37
2Rome13-176.702Cartersville14-178.70
3Dutchtown12-170.523Mary Persons12-177.26
4Buford10-368.934Marist11-376.88
5Bainbridge10-567.495St. Pius X10-273.40
6Stockbridge12-265.406Troup12-270.95
7Jones County8-362.347Pickens11-156.58
8Veterans8-359.858North Oconee9-356.39
9Wayne County11-159.109Cairo10-356.20
10Kell9-356.5910Eastside12-155.54
11Ware County8-454.9111Flowery Branch8-355.10
12Carrollton10-354.4512Ridgeland8-454.23
13Clarke Central8-552.4413Baldwin7-654.23
14Cedar Shoals8-451.2314Sandy Creek7-453.75
15Locust Grove5-648.9815Cedartown5-653.62
AAA AA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Cedar Grove14-179.921Rockmart14-170.00
2Peach County12-372.562Heard County13-268.10
3Monroe Area12-165.683Callaway11-364.90
4Pierce County13-164.964Dublin11-263.37
5Calhoun13-163.725Brooks County9-359.39
6Westminster (Atlanta)8-561.456Fitzgerald10-458.31
7Benedictine11-258.847Washington County10-358.03
8Greater Atlanta Christian9-358.818Hapeville Charter10-257.77
9Pace Academy6-556.039Bremen9-357.69
10Dawson County10-254.4910Dodge County10-256.16
11Lovett6-653.7111Rabun County11-253.97
12North Hall9-350.6512Thomasville7-552.44
13Westside (Macon)8-449.5013Jefferson County10-350.23
14Jefferson8-348.6714Swainsboro9-349.46
15Crisp County7-448.3915Vidalia9-246.75
AAA AA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Irwin County13-165.341Eagle's Landing Christian13-165.59
2Clinch County13-165.262Athens Academy13-155.49
3Pelham12-151.663Prince Avenue Christian11-251.01
4Marion County12-150.694Savannah Christian11-247.36
5Commerce10-344.785Calvary Day10-241.48
6Mount Zion (Carroll)10-242.546George Walton Academy8-339.80
7Charlton County8-439.807Hebron Christian Academy6-637.18
8Schley County9-339.598North Cobb Christian10-236.58
9Mitchell County8-338.019Wesleyan7-535.01
10Emanuel County Institute7-533.8810Fellowship Christian10-234.10
11Greene County9-329.4411Mount Vernon Presbyterian8-433.42
12Dooly County7-528.7712Darlington9-333.36
13Turner County6-527.8113Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)8-432.87
14Trion8-427.7814Riverside Military Academy6-629.63
15Wilcox County5-626.7915Mount Paran Christian7-427.15

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank Team Region Rec Rating SchStr Rank
1 [1]Colquitt County1 - AAAAAAA14-195.1871.561 [1]
2 [1]Lee County1 - AAAAAA15-088.3747.8967 [6]
3 [1]Blessed Trinity7 - AAAA15-086.3751.3946 [6]
4 [2]Milton5 - AAAAAAA13-285.3562.119 [9]
5 [3]Parkview7 - AAAAAAA11-185.1657.8417 [13]
6 [4]Archer8 - AAAAAAA11-384.0963.624 [4]
7 [5]Grayson8 - AAAAAAA10-381.3556.0021 [15]
8 [1]Cedar Grove5 - AAA14-179.9246.6380 [5]
9 [6]North Gwinnett6 - AAAAAAA10-379.3955.2827 [20]
10 [7]Lowndes1 - AAAAAAA10-479.2865.813 [3]
11 [8]Hillgrove3 - AAAAAAA12-178.8856.0420 [14]
12 [2]Cartersville5 - AAAA14-178.7049.6556 [10]
13 [1]Warner Robins1 - AAAAA13-277.8658.6215 [2]
14 [3]Mary Persons2 - AAAA12-177.2645.9787 [18]
15 [4]Marist7 - AAAA11-376.8855.3425 [1]
16 [2]Rome7 - AAAAA13-176.7041.71118 [20]
17 [9]Tift County1 - AAAAAAA8-576.5968.192 [2]
18 [10]Walton4 - AAAAAAA10-275.2655.9122 [16]
19 [5]St. Pius X8 - AAAA10-273.4051.2251 [8]
20 [11]McEachern3 - AAAAAAA8-473.2862.486 [6]
21 [2]Peach County4 - AAA12-372.5647.6271 [4]
22 [12]Camden County1 - AAAAAAA7-471.8562.148 [8]
23 [6]Troup5 - AAAA12-270.9552.5237 [4]
24 [3]Dutchtown4 - AAAAA12-170.5244.26104 [17]
25 [1]Rockmart7 - AA14-170.0032.49207 [19]
26 [13]Roswell4 - AAAAAAA9-269.9652.3140 [28]
27 [14]Mill Creek6 - AAAAAAA8-469.2360.2210 [10]
28 [4]Buford8 - AAAAA10-368.9342.88112 [18]
29 [2]Heard County5 - AA13-268.1040.93127 [8]
30 [15]Marietta3 - AAAAAAA5-667.5663.425 [5]
31 [5]Bainbridge1 - AAAAA10-567.4959.8211 [1]
32 [2]Northside (Warner Robins)1 - AAAAAA9-666.7357.5719 [3]
33 [16]Westlake2 - AAAAAAA9-365.9952.4638 [26]
34 [3]Monroe Area8 - AAA12-165.6838.91144 [7]
35 [1]Eagle's Landing Christian5 - A13-165.5929.36236 [5]
36 [6]Stockbridge4 - AAAAA12-265.4041.01125 [23]
37 [1]Irwin County2 - A13-165.3434.96190 [2]
38 [2]Clinch County2 - A13-165.2637.51158 [1]
39 [4]Pierce County2 - AAA13-164.9624.34294 [46]
40 [3]Callaway5 - AA11-364.9038.91145 [13]
41 [17]Norcross7 - AAAAAAA7-564.0157.9716 [12]
42 [5]Calhoun6 - AAA13-163.7226.16273 [38]
43 [3]Creekview6 - AAAAAA12-163.6439.77137 [22]
44 [4]Dublin3 - AA11-263.3740.36133 [9]
45 [4]Dacula8 - AAAAAA11-363.0946.7079 [10]
46 [5]Valdosta1 - AAAAAA8-563.0159.0914 [2]
47 [7]Jones County4 - AAAAA8-362.3449.9255 [6]
48 [6]Westminster (Atlanta)5 - AAA8-561.4554.2331 [1]
49 [18]West Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA6-660.9953.7933 [24]
50 [19]Brookwood7 - AAAAAAA7-460.1648.2564 [37]
51 [20]North Paulding3 - AAAAAAA7-459.9051.3447 [33]
52 [8]Veterans1 - AAAAA8-359.8551.0752 [5]
53 [5]Brooks County1 - AA9-359.3947.7270 [2]
54 [9]Wayne County2 - AAAAA11-159.1040.54131 [26]
55 [7]Benedictine3 - AAA11-258.8428.24247 [32]
56 [8]Greater Atlanta Christian7 - AAA9-358.8136.67170 [18]
57 [6]Fitzgerald1 - AA10-458.3145.8288 [4]
58 [21]Mountain View6 - AAAAAAA7-458.2351.7743 [30]
59 [7]Washington County3 - AA10-358.0346.0086 [3]
60 [22]North Cobb3 - AAAAAAA6-458.0054.5229 [22]
61 [8]Hapeville Charter6 - AA10-257.7722.20323 [37]
62 [9]Bremen5 - AA9-357.6931.14218 [20]
63 [6]Allatoona6 - AAAAAA8-457.5147.1574 [8]
64 [10]Kell7 - AAAAA9-356.5939.22141 [29]
65 [7]Pickens6 - AAAA11-156.5821.18334 [50]
66 [8]North Oconee8 - AAAA9-356.3941.47122 [26]
67 [9]Cairo1 - AAAA10-356.2035.67183 [33]
68 [10]Dodge County3 - AA10-256.1641.75117 [7]
69 [9]Pace Academy5 - AAA6-556.0348.2365 [3]
70 [7]Sequoyah6 - AAAAAA10-355.5742.18116 [20]
71 [10]Eastside4 - AAAA12-155.5427.15259 [46]
72 [2]Athens Academy8 - A13-155.4935.99178 [1]
73 [11]Flowery Branch7 - AAAA8-355.1041.19123 [27]
74 [11]Ware County2 - AAAAA8-454.9147.5072 [8]
75 [8]Coffee1 - AAAAAA9-454.5744.7299 [14]
76 [9]Lanier8 - AAAAAA10-454.5245.3293 [12]
77 [10]Dawson County7 - AAA10-254.4928.99239 [30]
78 [10]Harrison6 - AAAAAA9-354.4540.58130 [21]
79 [12]Carrollton7 - AAAAA10-354.4540.40132 [27]
80 [12]Ridgeland6 - AAAA8-454.2337.70155 [30]
81 [13]Baldwin3 - AAAA7-654.2352.0342 [5]
82 [11]Rabun County8 - AA11-253.9727.04261 [24]
83 [14]Sandy Creek5 - AAAA7-453.7544.9697 [21]
84 [23]East Coweta2 - AAAAAAA4-853.7459.3313 [11]
85 [11]Lovett5 - AAA6-653.7149.2059 [2]
86 [15]Cedartown5 - AAAA5-653.6251.3348 [7]
87 [16]Upson-Lee2 - AAAA7-453.3749.1260 [12]
88 [13]Clarke Central8 - AAAAA8-552.4446.8676 [10]
89 [12]Thomasville1 - AA7-552.4449.9454 [1]
90 [24]Newnan2 - AAAAAAA6-552.3449.0061 [36]
91 [17]Burke County3 - AAAA8-452.2943.21111 [24]
92 [11]Glynn Academy2 - AAAAAA7-551.7643.57108 [18]
93 [3]Pelham1 - A12-151.6614.99381 [31]
94 [25]South Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA5-651.3555.8723 [17]
95 [14]Cedar Shoals8 - AAAAA8-451.2341.09124 [22]
96 [3]Prince Avenue Christian8 - A11-251.0129.90227 [4]
97 [4]Marion County4 - A12-150.6924.69292 [12]
98 [12]North Hall7 - AAA9-350.6526.72264 [37]
99 [12]Johns Creek7 - AAAAAA9-250.6328.50245 [50]
100 [13]Jefferson County4 - AA10-350.2330.46225 [21]
101 [18]Oconee County8 - AAAA6-550.0047.8768 [14]
102 [13]Westside (Macon)4 - AAA8-449.5037.65157 [12]
103 [14]Swainsboro2 - AA9-349.4635.81180 [17]
104 [26]Cherokee4 - AAAAAAA5-649.2955.3426 [19]
105 [15]Locust Grove4 - AAAAA5-648.9854.4030 [4]
106 [27]Collins Hill6 - AAAAAAA3-848.9262.377 [7]
107 [19]Howard2 - AAAA6-548.7446.3683 [16]
108 [14]Jefferson8 - AAA8-348.6735.70182 [20]
109 [15]Crisp County1 - AAA7-448.3941.50120 [6]
110 [16]East Paulding7 - AAAAA7-547.8644.67100 [16]
111 [28]Etowah4 - AAAAAAA4-747.5655.6424 [18]
112 [29]Central Gwinnett7 - AAAAAAA4-747.4353.9132 [23]
113 [17]Thomas County Central1 - AAAAA5-547.4047.3373 [9]
114 [4]Savannah Christian3 - A11-247.3626.25268 [9]
115 [13]Habersham Central8 - AAAAAA7-546.8543.59107 [17]
116 [30]Wheeler2 - AAAAAAA6-446.8344.33103 [41]
117 [31]Pebblebrook2 - AAAAAAA4-746.7651.5345 [32]
118 [15]Vidalia2 - AA9-246.7527.03262 [25]
119 [20]Chapel Hill5 - AAAA6-446.5843.38109 [23]
120 [21]Stephens County8 - AAAA5-646.4950.0253 [9]
121 [14]Creekside5 - AAAAAA8-446.3337.83152 [26]
122 [22]Perry2 - AAAA6-546.2146.0684 [17]
123 [23]Thomson3 - AAAA5-745.6549.2158 [11]
124 [24]West Laurens2 - AAAA5-545.1843.98105 [22]
125 [32]Kennesaw Mountain3 - AAAAAAA4-645.0652.1741 [29]
126 [33]Forsyth Central5 - AAAAAAA7-444.8236.28174 [46]
127 [5]Commerce8 - A10-344.7825.94278 [10]
128 [18]Banneker6 - AAAAA9-244.4522.84316 [48]
129 [25]Carver (Columbus)1 - AAAA9-244.4331.25217 [38]
130 [16]Liberty County2 - AAA8-444.4035.41185 [22]
131 [17]Jackson4 - AAA7-543.9938.76147 [8]
132 [15]Centennial7 - AAAAAA7-443.8935.29186 [36]
133 [19]Harris County1 - AAAAA3-843.8657.6418 [3]
134 [18]Appling County2 - AAA6-543.8337.70156 [11]
135 [34]Woodstock4 - AAAAAAA3-743.4152.4239 [27]
136 [20]Griffin3 - AAAAA8-443.3432.78205 [35]
137 [16]Dalton6 - AAAAAA6-443.3035.99177 [34]
138 [35]Newton8 - AAAAAAA4-742.8751.2250 [35]
139 [17]Richmond Hill2 - AAAAAA5-642.6346.0185 [11]
140 [26]Woodward Academy4 - AAAA7-542.5931.09219 [39]
141 [6]Mount Zion (Carroll)6 - A10-242.5423.06310 [16]
142 [18]Effingham County2 - AAAAAA7-542.4638.83146 [24]
143 [19]Douglas County5 - AAAAAA8-342.3834.26196 [40]
144 [27]Richmond Academy3 - AAAA7-442.2538.04150 [29]
145 [20]Bradwell Institute2 - AAAAAA5-742.1044.52102 [15]
146 [21]Mays5 - AAAAAA6-542.0836.12175 [32]
147 [21]Loganville8 - AAAAA5-742.0849.4457 [7]
148 [5]Calvary Day3 - A10-241.4814.47385 [30]
149 [36]South Gwinnett8 - AAAAAAA4-741.3451.6044 [31]
150 [16]Early County1 - AA6-541.3344.62101 [5]
151 [17]Douglass6 - AA10-241.0311.81402 [58]
152 [22]Stephenson4 - AAAAAA9-240.6123.29308 [57]
153 [22]Statesboro2 - AAAAA4-740.3245.6289 [13]
154 [37]North Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA3-740.1946.4182 [38]
155 [38]Meadowcreek7 - AAAAAAA6-439.9435.28187 [47]
156 [19]Jenkins3 - AAA9-439.9027.00263 [36]
157 [6]George Walton Academy8 - A8-339.8023.80300 [13]
158 [7]Charlton County2 - A8-439.8029.72231 [5]
159 [23]New Hampstead2 - AAAAA5-639.6741.51119 [21]
160 [8]Schley County4 - A9-339.5920.68339 [19]
161 [18]Union County8 - AA9-239.1912.76398 [57]
162 [24]Southwest DeKalb5 - AAAAA10-139.0920.57340 [52]
163 [25]Union Grove4 - AAAAA6-439.0633.50203 [34]
164 [26]Riverwood6 - AAAAA8-338.5621.37330 [49]
165 [19]Elbert County8 - AA7-438.4721.96326 [39]
166 [28]Columbus1 - AAAA7-538.4234.49193 [35]
167 [23]Houston County1 - AAAAAA2-838.2259.4312 [1]
168 [24]Alpharetta7 - AAAAAA6-538.0936.00176 [33]
169 [9]Mitchell County1 - A8-338.0113.16395 [36]
170 [25]Winder-Barrow8 - AAAAAA2-837.8248.5662 [4]
171 [27]Starr's Mill3 - AAAAA7-437.7928.53244 [40]
172 [26]Tucker4 - AAAAAA7-437.6029.61234 [47]
173 [7]Hebron Christian Academy8 - A6-637.1833.51202 [2]
174 [29]Denmark7 - AAAA5-536.7640.80128 [28]
175 [8]North Cobb Christian6 - A10-236.5822.46322 [17]
176 [27]Sprayberry6 - AAAAAA3-736.1844.8298 [13]
177 [30]White County7 - AAAA3-836.1748.1766 [13]
178 [20]Pike County4 - AAA8-436.1620.10345 [53]
179 [28]Northgate5 - AAAAAA6-536.1436.79166 [31]
180 [29]Grovetown3 - AAAAAA6-536.1034.42194 [38]
181 [20]Chattooga7 - AA9-336.0821.40329 [42]
182 [21]Southeast Bulloch3 - AAA9-236.0119.71348 [54]
183 [39]Lambert5 - AAAAAAA3-735.7145.3692 [40]
184 [30]Gainesville8 - AAAAAA2-935.6648.4063 [5]
185 [28]Villa Rica7 - AAAAA5-535.3436.50172 [30]
186 [31]West Hall7 - AAAA3-735.1446.5481 [15]
187 [9]Wesleyan5 - A7-535.0130.95220 [3]
188 [31]Apalachee8 - AAAAAA3-734.7243.97106 [16]
189 [21]Bleckley County3 - AA4-634.5939.97135 [10]
190 [40]Campbell2 - AAAAAAA1-934.4354.6328 [21]
191 [32]Salem4 - AAAA7-434.4125.45283 [47]
192 [10]Fellowship Christian6 - A10-234.1017.48364 [22]
193 [10]Emanuel County Institute3 - A7-533.8822.02324 [17]
194 [29]Hiram7 - AAAAA4-633.6740.98126 [24]
195 [22]Morgan County8 - AAA5-633.5636.74168 [16]
196 [22]Hephzibah4 - AA8-333.4420.48342 [45]
197 [11]Mount Vernon Presbyterian5 - A8-433.4223.57305 [14]
198 [32]Brunswick2 - AAAAAA3-733.3642.38115 [19]
199 [12]Darlington6 - A9-333.3625.09285 [11]
200 [23]Berrien1 - AA5-533.2937.32160 [14]
201 [13]Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)5 - A8-432.8723.94299 [12]
202 [33]LaGrange5 - AAAA2-832.4452.6936 [3]
203 [33]Hughes5 - AAAAAA4-632.3237.71154 [28]
204 [34]Westover1 - AAAA4-532.2231.94214 [37]
205 [30]Walnut Grove8 - AAAAA2-832.1746.7677 [11]
206 [24]Northeast3 - AA4-731.9339.53139 [12]
207 [35]Spalding2 - AAAA3-731.8942.40114 [25]
208 [36]Hardaway1 - AAAA5-531.5730.64223 [40]
209 [23]Haralson County6 - AAA8-331.5218.98352 [55]
210 [25]Washington6 - AA7-431.5215.54377 [54]
211 [41]Lassiter4 - AAAAAAA1-931.4751.3149 [34]
212 [24]Hart County8 - AAA4-731.4738.57148 [9]
213 [34]Pope7 - AAAAAA5-631.3334.29195 [39]
214 [35]Evans3 - AAAAAA3-831.2438.38149 [25]
215 [36]Greenbrier3 - AAAAAA3-831.2238.99143 [23]
216 [26]Jeff Davis2 - AA7-431.2124.07298 [32]
217 [25]Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe6 - AAA7-431.0022.48321 [51]
218 [31]Arabia Mountain5 - AAAAA6-530.1126.20272 [44]
219 [37]Alexander5 - AAAAAA3-729.7437.09162 [29]
220 [26]Central (Macon)4 - AAA3-729.6836.76167 [15]
221 [37]Madison County8 - AAAA2-829.6444.9995 [20]
222 [14]Riverside Military Academy8 - A6-629.6327.67254 [7]
223 [38]Lakeside (Evans)3 - AAAAAA5-529.6230.82221 [45]
224 [27]Harlem4 - AA7-429.5820.49341 [44]
225 [27]Windsor Forest3 - AAA6-529.5122.83317 [50]
226 [11]Greene County7 - A9-329.4415.97375 [27]
227 [28]North Murray6 - AAA6-529.2526.04276 [39]
228 [28]Southwest3 - AA3-729.1443.26110 [6]
229 [32]Eagle's Landing4 - AAAAA2-828.9744.9996 [15]
230 [39]Lovejoy4 - AAAAAA6-528.9528.57243 [49]
231 [42]Duluth6 - AAAAAAA4-628.8939.22142 [45]
232 [43]Peachtree Ridge6 - AAAAAAA1-928.8452.7235 [25]
233 [12]Dooly County4 - A7-528.7724.16297 [13]
234 [38]Central (Carrollton)5 - AAAA2-828.6853.2834 [2]
235 [33]Woodland (Stockbridge)4 - AAAAA3-728.6840.31134 [28]
236 [40]South Cobb6 - AAAAAA2-828.3247.7969 [7]
237 [34]Riverdale3 - AAAAA7-428.2923.54306 [46]
238 [44]Rockdale County8 - AAAAAAA3-728.0239.66138 [43]
239 [13]Turner County2 - A6-527.8126.39267 [9]
240 [14]Trion6 - A8-427.7819.96346 [20]
241 [39]Northside (Columbus)1 - AAAA4-627.5732.86204 [36]
242 [35]Jonesboro3 - AAAAA5-627.5032.65206 [36]
243 [29]Ringgold6 - AAA5-627.4028.13248 [33]
244 [15]Mount Paran Christian6 - A7-427.1517.11368 [23]
245 [41]Heritage (Conyers)3 - AAAAAA3-727.0933.72199 [42]
246 [42]Northview7 - AAAAAA5-526.8627.51256 [51]
247 [40]Americus-Sumter1 - AAAA3-726.8537.33159 [31]
248 [15]Wilcox County2 - A5-626.7925.49282 [11]
249 [30]Franklin County8 - AAA3-726.7236.91164 [14]
250 [31]Cook1 - AAA3-826.6637.99151 [10]
251 [36]Maynard Jackson6 - AAAAA6-526.6221.10336 [51]
252 [16]Holy Innocents5 - A6-626.6123.26309 [16]
253 [17]Christian Heritage6 - A7-426.3021.30332 [19]
254 [29]Metter2 - AA6-426.2922.92315 [34]
255 [30]Pepperell7 - AA6-525.9924.29295 [31]
256 [37]South Effingham2 - AAAAA2-825.9442.41113 [19]
257 [38]Woodland (Cartersville)7 - AAAAA4-625.8635.19189 [31]
258 [39]Carver (Atlanta)6 - AAAAA5-625.7329.18238 [38]
259 [31]Toombs County2 - AA5-625.6027.93250 [22]
260 [18]Brookstone4 - A7-525.5313.76392 [32]
261 [16]Chattahoochee County1 - A8-425.4314.13388 [32]
262 [32]Screven County4 - AA6-525.2824.68293 [30]
263 [45]Shiloh8 - AAAAAAA2-825.2639.47140 [44]
264 [41]Heritage (Ringgold)6 - AAAA5-625.1629.79230 [43]
265 [43]Mundy's Mill4 - AAAAAA6-525.0024.25296 [55]
266 [17]Telfair County2 - A4-624.1927.31258 [8]
267 [18]Miller County1 - A7-424.1113.49393 [34]
268 [40]Johnson (Gainesville)8 - AAAAA4-623.6932.09213 [37]
269 [33]Spencer5 - AA3-823.5939.83136 [11]
270 [19]Mount de Sales7 - A9-223.3311.25405 [36]
271 [42]Northwest Whitfield6 - AAAA6-523.3019.17351 [51]
272 [44]South Paulding5 - AAAAAA2-823.2635.74181 [35]
273 [19]Montgomery County3 - A8-423.1113.98390 [33]
274 [45]Cambridge7 - AAAAAA3-722.8334.04198 [41]
275 [46]Discovery6 - AAAAAAA1-922.6745.5090 [39]
276 [20]Aquinas7 - A9-322.4812.14400 [34]
277 [46]North Atlanta7 - AAAAAA5-522.4223.58303 [56]
278 [43]Cross Creek3 - AAAA3-721.8534.84191 [34]
279 [20]Manchester4 - A6-521.8116.83369 [25]
280 [41]Ola4 - AAAAA1-921.7346.7378 [12]
281 [42]Paulding County7 - AAAAA1-921.0345.2194 [14]
282 [47]Alcovy3 - AAAAAA2-821.0337.05163 [30]
283 [34]Butler4 - AA5-520.9720.35344 [46]
284 [21]Whitefield Academy6 - A6-420.8614.93383 [28]
285 [21]Macon County4 - A5-620.7521.03337 [18]
286 [32]Monroe1 - AAA5-620.6227.90252 [34]
287 [44]Hampton4 - AAAA4-620.4725.07286 [48]
288 [45]Henry County4 - AAAA4-720.2527.92251 [44]
289 [46]Shaw1 - AAAA3-719.6930.60224 [41]
290 [33]Adairsville6 - AAA4-619.4525.07287 [42]
291 [22]Savannah Country Day3 - A7-419.4311.46404 [35]
292 [43]Lithonia5 - AAAAA6-519.3118.48355 [53]
293 [35]Coosa7 - AA4-719.1926.08275 [27]
294 [36]South Atlanta6 - AA6-519.1213.95391 [56]
295 [23]Tattnall Square7 - A6-519.0814.70384 [29]
296 [22]Claxton3 - A6-519.0719.50349 [21]
297 [48]Tri-Cities5 - AAAAAA1-918.9735.20188 [37]
298 [44]Cass7 - AAAAA1-918.8040.73129 [25]
299 [49]New Manchester5 - AAAAAA2-818.3933.62200 [43]
300 [37]Bacon County2 - AA2-818.3235.81179 [17]
301 [34]Jackson County8 - AAA3-718.0630.41226 [26]
302 [23]Taylor County4 - A5-618.0019.21350 [22]
303 [50]Morrow4 - AAAAAA3-717.8629.60235 [48]
304 [45]Decatur6 - AAAAA4-617.2621.16335 [50]
305 [51]Drew4 - AAAAAA3-717.1826.72265 [52]
306 [38]Monticello8 - AA5-616.8022.77319 [35]
307 [35]Sonoraville6 - AAA4-616.2122.95313 [48]
308 [36]Beach3 - AAA4-616.2028.90240 [31]
309 [24]Hancock Central7 - A6-516.1612.69399 [38]
310 [37]Islands3 - AAA3-716.1124.96290 [44]
311 [47]LaFayette6 - AAAA5-516.0417.61363 [53]
312 [25]Atkinson County2 - A3-715.9629.63233 [6]
313 [26]Jenkins County3 - A5-515.9613.19394 [35]
314 [38]Tattnall County2 - AAA2-915.3636.68169 [17]
315 [46]McIntosh3 - AAAAA3-715.2225.13284 [45]
316 [24]St. Francis6 - A5-514.1212.84397 [33]
317 [39]Glenn Hills4 - AA3-714.0222.49320 [36]
318 [52]Forest Park4 - AAAAAA3-713.6320.36343 [58]
319 [40]Laney4 - AA4-613.5821.67328 [41]
320 [25]Stratford Academy7 - A5-613.5316.57372 [24]
321 [48]Luella4 - AAAA3-713.1427.60255 [45]
322 [47]Miller Grove5 - AAAAA3-812.9828.28246 [41]
323 [48]North Springs6 - AAAAA3-712.8522.95312 [47]
324 [49]Columbia5 - AAAAA2-812.8028.60242 [39]
325 [26]Strong Rock Christian5 - A3-712.7128.81241 [6]
326 [53]Mount Zion (Jonesboro)4 - AAAAAA2-812.7125.52281 [54]
327 [39]Fannin County7 - AAA4-711.7422.94314 [49]
328 [54]Dunwoody7 - AAAAAA2-811.7430.78222 [46]
329 [27]Pinecrest Academy6 - A4-611.6615.21379 [26]
330 [55]M.L. King4 - AAAAAA1-911.5726.24271 [53]
331 [40]Worth County1 - AAA1-911.3537.18161 [13]
332 [41]Lamar County5 - AA4-611.0627.08260 [23]
333 [56]River Ridge6 - AAAAAA1-910.9447.1075 [9]
334 [42]Banks County8 - AA4-610.5316.69371 [52]
335 [27]Seminole County1 - A5-610.3417.90361 [24]
336 [41]Brantley County2 - AAA2-810.2029.88228 [27]
337 [50]Whitewater3 - AAAAA1-99.7334.12197 [33]
338 [28]Johnson County3 - A6-49.254.08416 [48]
339 [57]Chattahoochee7 - AAAAAA0-108.9532.22212 [44]
340 [49]Chestatee7 - AAAA1-98.4345.3991 [19]
341 [28]Mount Pisgah Christian6 - A3-78.2819.92347 [20]
342 [42]East Hall7 - AAA3-77.4231.44215 [24]
343 [29]Washington-Wilkes7 - A3-77.0315.53378 [29]
344 [43]B.E.S.T. Academy6 - AA3-76.7932.49208 [19]
345 [50]Southeast Whitfield6 - AAAA3-76.6322.80318 [49]
346 [29]First Presbyterian7 - A3-76.3916.49373 [25]
347 [30]Providence Christian8 - A4-65.8218.14359 [21]
348 [30]Warren County7 - A5-55.683.46417 [49]
349 [31]Lincoln County7 - A4-65.429.50408 [43]
350 [44]Gordon Central7 - AA3-75.3817.17367 [51]
351 [51]Dougherty1 - AAAA0-85.2836.87165 [32]
352 [32]Bowdon6 - A1-95.2627.48257 [7]
353 [51]Grady6 - AAAAA1-95.0126.24270 [43]
354 [45]Putnam County8 - AA3-74.4122.98311 [33]
355 [33]Gordon Lee6 - A2-84.3223.68301 [14]
356 [52]Fayette County3 - AAAAA0-104.1928.03249 [42]
357 [47]Lakeside (Atlanta)7 - AAAAAAA1-93.7041.47121 [42]
358 [34]Terrell County1 - A4-63.6812.12401 [39]
359 [31]Athens Christian8 - A3-73.1923.39307 [15]
360 [46]Model7 - AA2-82.7218.90353 [47]
361 [35]Towns County8 - A3-72.5633.53201 [3]
362 [47]East Laurens3 - AA1-92.1936.34173 [15]
363 [36]McIntosh County Academy3 - A1-91.8423.57304 [15]
364 [43]Coahulla Creek6 - AAA1-90.9023.63302 [47]
365 [48]Therrell6 - AA2-80.3521.21333 [43]
366 [44]Johnson (Savannah)3 - AAA2-80.0925.62280 [41]
367 [52]North Clayton4 - AAAA1-90.0429.82229 [42]
368 [37]Hawkinsville4 - A4-60.0412.90396 [37]
369 [38]Calhoun County1 - A3-70.0315.04380 [30]
370 [49]Westside (Augusta)4 - AA1-9-0.1625.01289 [29]
371 [50]Bryan County2 - AA1-8-0.4025.66279 [28]
372 [45]Lumpkin County7 - AAA3-7-0.4517.20366 [56]
373 [32]Landmark Christian5 - A2-8-0.8221.37331 [18]
374 [48]Berkmar7 - AAAAAAA3-7-1.5732.41210 [48]
375 [33]King's Ridge Christian6 - A1-9-1.6714.97382 [27]
376 [34]Lakeview Academy8 - A1-9-2.1826.11274 [10]
377 [51]Social Circle8 - AA4-6-2.476.06415 [59]
378 [52]Armuchee7 - AA2-8-3.0118.54354 [48]
379 [53]Lithia Springs6 - AAAAA2-8-3.4817.73362 [54]
380 [53]McNair6 - AA3-7-3.7516.15374 [53]
381 [54]Temple5 - AA1-9-4.1126.24269 [26]
382 [55]KIPP Atlanta Collegiate6 - AA2-8-4.6818.34358 [50]
383 [56]Jordan5 - AA2-8-4.9221.90327 [40]
384 [39]Greenville4 - A3-7-5.257.56411 [46]
385 [40]Lanier County2 - A0-10-5.5632.43209 [4]
386 [41]Portal3 - A2-8-6.1015.73376 [28]
387 [35]Pacelli4 - A4-6-6.317.12413 [37]
388 [46]Stone Mountain5 - AAA2-8-7.1835.44184 [21]
389 [47]Long County2 - AAA0-10-7.7436.57171 [19]
390 [42]Wilkinson County7 - A1-9-7.9217.98360 [23]
391 [36]Walker6 - A1-9-8.6014.23387 [31]
392 [57]Josey4 - AA0-10-8.8722.01325 [38]
393 [58]Dade County7 - AA1-9-9.0818.43356 [49]
394 [48]Groves3 - AAA1-9-9.2829.72232 [28]
395 [53]Druid Hills4 - AAAA2-8-11.3317.45365 [54]
396 [49]Cherokee Bluff7 - AAA0-10-12.3332.38211 [23]
397 [43]Baconton Charter1 - A3-7-12.657.72410 [45]
398 [50]Redan5 - AAA1-9-13.7629.36237 [29]
399 [51]Kendrick4 - AAA1-9-14.0327.85253 [35]
400 [54]Chamblee5 - AAAAA0-10-14.0334.50192 [32]
401 [37]Georgia Military College7 - A3-7-14.170.04418 [38]
402 [52]Murray County6 - AAA0-10-14.5921.03338 [52]
403 [58]Osborne6 - AAAAAA0-10-14.9437.75153 [27]
404 [54]Gilmer6 - AAAA0-10-15.8018.36357 [52]
405 [44]Treutlen3 - A3-7-16.147.45412 [47]
406 [38]Our Lady of Mercy5 - A0-10-16.4526.40266 [8]
407 [53]Savannah3 - AAA0-10-17.3324.84291 [45]
408 [54]East Jackson8 - AAA1-9-17.4325.01288 [43]
409 [55]Rutland4 - AAA0-10-19.1831.37216 [25]
410 [45]Crawford County4 - A3-7-19.34-1.07419 [50]
411 [46]Stewart County1 - A2-8-19.938.06409 [44]
412 [59]Oglethorpe County8 - AA0-10-23.3814.12389 [55]
413 [56]Towers5 - AAA0-10-25.0925.96277 [40]
414 [55]Clarkston5 - AAAAA†0-10-29.8114.27386 [55]
415 [47]Twiggs County7 - A0-10-31.8910.29406 [41]
416 [48]Wheeler County3 - A1-9-33.7911.50403 [40]
417 [1]ACE Charter7 - A†4-6-35.15-17.31420 [1]
418 [49]Central (Talbotton)4 - A0-10-39.759.73407 [42]
419 [50]Randolph-Clay1 - A0-10-45.4516.79370 [26]
420 [2]Pataula Charter1 - A†2-7-56.43-38.35422 [3]
421 [3]Glascock County7 - A†1-8-1-64.31-24.94421 [2]
422 [56]Cross Keys5 - AAAAA†0-10-86.806.32414 [56]

† - Plays a non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Comp Rating Avg Rating
11 - AAAAAAA90.4480.29
21 - AAAAAA79.1461.78
38 - AAAAAAA78.3046.16
43 - AAAAAAA77.2964.04
57 - AAAA77.2445.81
67 - AAAAAAA73.6946.69
75 - AAAAAAA73.2850.90
81 - AAAAA72.9559.10
95 - AAAA72.3451.72
106 - AAAAAAA71.7847.32
114 - AAAAAAA70.3152.03
125 - AAA69.8840.50
134 - AAAAA67.3445.33
142 - AAAA67.1349.30
158 - AAAA66.0451.06
167 - AAAAA65.6139.83
175 - AA64.2028.58
182 - AAAAAAA62.7049.98
196 - AAAAAA62.1941.47
208 - AAAAA61.7844.96
213 - AA60.6140.56
221 - AA60.5549.30
234 - AAA60.3633.95
242 - A60.2031.04
258 - AAAAAA59.1145.00
262 - AAAAA56.8944.12
273 - AAAA55.3044.28
287 - AAA55.1121.38
298 - AAA54.9631.16
302 - AAA54.8228.56
318 - A52.6328.06
 8-Div A - A52.0933.68
 8-Div B - A40.5423.81
327 - AA52.6314.71
332 - AAAAAA52.0442.45
345 - A51.5724.59
356 - AAAA50.8223.01
361 - AAAA50.1731.41
376 - AAA49.1823.03
385 - AAAAAA47.9632.25
393 - AAA47.6419.27
407 - AAAAAA47.0828.33
414 - AAAA46.5921.77
422 - AA46.3928.58
436 - AA46.3016.04
448 - AA45.1416.75
456 - A42.2719.14
 6-Div A - A41.4126.19
 6-Div B - A30.7113.36
464 - A42.0213.37
 4-Div A - A38.258.78
 4-Div B - A33.9116.65
473 - A41.6914.53
 3-Div A - A41.5520.07
 3-Div B - A27.868.86
484 - AA41.4919.95
493 - AAAAA40.3723.78
501 - A40.298.53
516 - AAAAA40.1220.86
521 - AAA40.1225.68
533 - AAAAAA39.7129.42
544 - AAAAAA39.3322.33
555 - AAAAA32.3217.84
567 - A28.978.91
 7-Div B - A25.6010.69
 7-Div A - A20.986.50

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
09/21BainbridgeCrisp County0 - 2320.2588.3%0.138
09/21RoswellWheeler36 - 3721.9890.0%0.187
08/31LanierAlpharetta9 - 1417.5985.3%0.222
09/14Mount Zion (Carroll)Christian Heritage22 - 3015.0981.9%0.245
10/26Mundy's MillForest Park12 - 3612.5377.8%0.245
09/14MiltonRoswell20 - 2216.5584.0%0.252
08/31Heard CountyHapeville Charter3 - 3311.4975.9%0.256
08/24Cedar ShoalsWinder-Barrow7 - 1414.5781.1%0.257
09/07Tattnall SquareLincoln County28 - 3414.8181.5%0.258
10/26CommerceRiverside Military Academy19 - 2016.3083.6%0.261
09/28Gordon CentralDade County12 - 1315.6282.7%0.271
08/17ChattoogaAdairsville20 - 2115.4882.5%0.273
11/09MariettaEast Coweta26 - 2814.9881.7%0.274
09/07SalemAlcovy20 - 2314.5481.1%0.276
11/09Crisp CountyPike County3 - 913.3979.2%0.280

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
87.9612/12Colquitt CountyMilton13 - 149.8372.8%
87.2811/30Colquitt CountyArcher22 - 219.9473.0%
85.2309/21ParkviewMilton37 - 350.9752.4%
84.6808/17MiltonArcher21 - 191.2653.1%
84.5509/21Colquitt CountyGrayson26 - 1412.6878.0%
84.5011/16ParkviewArcher29 - 362.2255.5%
82.6510/11ArcherGrayson14 - 411.5954.0%
81.4111/23MiltonHillgrove20 - 195.3263.0%
81.1211/23Colquitt CountyNorth Gwinnett45 - 016.9584.5%
81.1012/12Blessed TrinityCartersville23 - 97.6868.3%
81.0411/30MiltonLowndes28 - 177.2267.3%
81.0108/31ParkviewLowndes39 - 277.0366.9%
81.0011/02Colquitt CountyLowndes40 - 617.0584.6%
80.8209/14Colquitt CountyWarner Robins41 - 1416.1783.4%
80.0611/23GraysonLowndes15 - 203.2258.0%

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