AAAA: Maxwell predicts region standings, WL records
The Maxwell Ratings have predicted the region standings and the won-lost records of Georgia’s Class AAAA teams. The computer ratings are the work of Loren Maxwell, founder of the Georgia High School Football Historical Association. He has been involved with sports ratings since 1986.
His region-by-region breakdowns are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2014 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 trials at the rate of approximately 51 seasons per second.
All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAA team).
Although some regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all region standings were deciding by recursive head-to-head comparisons with all remaining ties being broken randomly.
Region Strength and Parity
Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Parity Index”, which is the probability of the region champion being a different team in two consecutive simulations adjusted for the number of teams in the region. The Parity Index takes into account each team’s schedule and game site. A higher Parity Index indicates a region whose championship is more open than a region with a lower Parity Index.
| Region | Competitive Rating | Average Rating | Parity Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 - AAAA | 86.30 | 66.40 | 0.521 |
| 8 - AAAA | 74.75 | 56.55 | 0.151 |
| 1 - Div A - AAAA | 70.23 | 51.15 | 0.587 |
| 3 - AAAA | 69.24 | 53.08 | 0.467 |
| 6 - AAAA | 67.12 | 48.98 | 0.549 |
| 4 - Div B - AAAA | 66.27 | 40.72 | 0.115 |
| 2 - AAAA | 60.74 | 44.34 | 0.756 |
| 7 - AAAA | 60.39 | 40.30 | 0.587 |
| 1 - Div B - AAAA | 60.20 | 43.14 | 0.720 |
| 4 - Div A - AAAA | 51.89 | 32.29 | 0.756 |
Region by Region Breakdown
Each team is shown with its rating, schedule strength, projected overall and region records, average finish in the region, and the number of times winning the region along with its associated odds.
1 - Div A - AAAA
| Projected Record | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Rank | Rating | Sch Str | Overall | Region | Avg Fin | First | Odds |
| Thomas County Central | 7 | 71.46 | 47.67 | 8.50-1.50 | 3.56-0.44 | 1.40 | 695,247 | 0.44 |
| Cairo | 15 | 59.62 | 49.74 | 7.14-2.86 | 2.73-1.27 | 2.30 | 202,786 | 3.93 |
| Monroe | 28 | 51.34 | 48.00 | 5.67-4.33 | 1.99-2.01 | 2.92 | 73,688 | 12.57 |
| Crisp County | 39 | 43.90 | 52.30 | 3.94-6.06 | 1.44-2.56 | 3.58 | 28,135 | 34.54 |
| Albany | 56 | 27.40 | 44.16 | 2.85-7.15 | 0.29-3.71 | 4.79 | 144 | 6,943.44 |
1 - Div B - AAAA
| Projected Record | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Rank | Rating | Sch Str | Overall | Region | Avg Fin | First | Odds |
| Bainbridge | 19 | 55.56 | 48.13 | 6.16-3.84 | 3.15-0.85 | 1.64 | 545,104 | 0.83 |
| Westover | 21 | 53.88 | 46.64 | 6.15-3.85 | 2.98-1.02 | 2.05 | 347,829 | 1.87 |
| Americus-Sumter | 45 | 41.06 | 42.93 | 4.38-5.62 | 1.79-2.21 | 3.23 | 59,757 | 15.73 |
| Worth County | 46 | 39.94 | 52.21 | 2.88-7.12 | 1.75-2.25 | 3.40 | 46,193 | 20.65 |
| Dougherty | 59 | 22.24 | 36.99 | 2.58-6.42 | 0.34-3.67 | 4.68 | 1,117 | 894.26 |
2 - AAAA
| Projected Record | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Rank | Rating | Sch Str | Overall | Region | Avg Fin | First | Odds |
| Mary Persons | 16 | 58.30 | 47.25 | 6.84-3.16 | 4.82-1.18 | 1.88 | 491,604 | 1.03 |
| Veterans | 24 | 52.84 | 49.26 | 5.59-4.41 | 4.15-1.85 | 2.49 | 313,140 | 2.19 |
| Baldwin | 33 | 48.51 | 46.00 | 5.43-4.57 | 3.61-2.39 | 3.44 | 85,430 | 10.71 |
| Perry | 40 | 43.89 | 47.28 | 4.35-5.65 | 2.96-3.04 | 3.99 | 63,387 | 14.78 |
| West Laurens | 43 | 41.75 | 48.75 | 3.56-6.44 | 2.63-3.37 | 4.69 | 27,110 | 35.89 |
| Upson-Lee | 44 | 41.30 | 39.86 | 5.29-4.71 | 2.60-3.40 | 4.60 | 19,326 | 50.74 |
| Howard | 63 | 14.16 | 45.43 | 0.73-9.27 | 0.22-5.78 | 6.91 | 3 | 333,332.33 |
3 - AAAA
| Projected Record | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Rank | Rating | Sch Str | Overall | Region | Avg Fin | First | Odds | |||||||||
| Burke County | 6 | 72.23 | 57.91 | 7.49-2.51 | 4.39-0.61 | 1.30 | 772,545 | 0.29 | |||||||||
| Wayne County | 14 | 62.14 | 58.02 | 5.97-4.03 | 2.78-1.22 | 2.16 | 163,118 | 5.13 | |||||||||
| Thomson | 20 | 54.63 | 54.78 | 4.98-5.02 | 2.28-2.72 | 3.05 | 55,391 | 17.05 | |||||||||
| Liberty County | 35 | 47.55 | 50.68 | 4.46-5.54 | 1.52-2.48 | 3.51 | 8,946 | 110.78 | |||||||||
| Windsor Forest | 68 | 9.36 | 36.38 | 1.46-8.54 | 0.03-3.97 | 4.97 | - | - | New Hampstead† | 67 | 10.95 | 9.35 | 4.76-5.24 | ||||
| † - Plays non-region schedule | |||||||||||||||||
4 - Div A - AAAA
| Projected Record | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Rank | Rating | Sch Str | Overall | Region | Avg Fin | First | Odds |
| Eagle's Landing | 36 | 46.71 | 31.68 | 6.82-3.18 | 3.93-1.07 | 1.93 | 429,471 | 1.33 |
| Eastside | 32 | 49.29 | 38.99 | 6.27-3.73 | 4.04-0.96 | 1.88 | 398,110 | 1.51 |
| Locust Grove | 42 | 42.39 | 32.07 | 6.35-3.65 | 3.45-1.55 | 2.48 | 164,449 | 5.08 |
| Henry County | 57 | 26.01 | 40.00 | 3.30-6.70 | 1.89-3.11 | 4.18 | 7,160 | 138.66 |
| Walnut Grove | 62 | 15.60 | 36.59 | 2.04-7.96 | 1.01-3.99 | 5.03 | 742 | 1,346.71 |
| Hampton | 66 | 10.95 | 46.15 | 1.00-8.00 | 0.68-4.32 | 5.50 | 68 | 14,704.88 |
4 - Div B - AAAA
| Projected Record | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Rank | Rating | Sch Str | Overall | Region | Avg Fin | First | Odds |
| Griffin | 3 | 83.63 | 37.03 | 9.61-0.39 | 4.93-0.07 | 1.06 | 950,048 | 0.05 |
| Jonesboro | 31 | 50.77 | 47.31 | 5.66-4.34 | 3.38-1.62 | 2.59 | 38,473 | 24.99 |
| Riverdale | 41 | 43.62 | 35.43 | 5.98-4.02 | 2.74-2.26 | 3.09 | 7,302 | 135.95 |
| Pike County | 49 | 37.32 | 42.17 | 4.42-5.58 | 2.21-2.79 | 3.92 | 3,877 | 256.93 |
| Spalding | 53 | 28.86 | 39.98 | 3.69-6.31 | 1.42-3.58 | 4.60 | 300 | 3,332.33 |
| Mount Zion (Jonesboro) | 65 | 13.13 | 42.71 | 1.26-8.74 | 0.32-4.68 | 5.74 | - | - |
5 - AAAA
| Projected Record | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Rank | Rating | Sch Str | Overall | Region | Avg Fin | First | Odds |
| Sandy Creek | 2 | 88.67 | 59.62 | 9.10-0.90 | 4.46-0.54 | 1.36 | 721,001 | 0.39 |
| Carrollton | 4 | 80.19 | 64.29 | 7.68-2.32 | 3.84-1.16 | 2.21 | 208,375 | 3.80 |
| Woodward Academy | 10 | 65.43 | 61.90 | 5.51-4.49 | 2.44-2.56 | 3.56 | 43,705 | 21.88 |
| Whitewater | 9 | 66.92 | 57.58 | 6.48-3.52 | 2.54-2.46 | 3.30 | 25,528 | 38.17 |
| Troup | 18 | 56.00 | 63.91 | 3.54-6.46 | 1.49-3.51 | 4.71 | 1,387 | 719.98 |
| Fayette County | 50 | 36.58 | 58.83 | 1.36-8.64 | 0.23-4.77 | 5.85 | 4 | 249,999.00 |
6 - AAAA
| Projected Record | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Rank | Rating | Sch Str | Overall | Region | Avg Fin | First | Odds | |||||||||
| Marist | 5 | 74.12 | 48.37 | 8.74-1.26 | 7.24-0.76 | 1.45 | 629,009 | 0.59 | |||||||||
| St. Pius X | 8 | 70.74 | 49.92 | 8.18-1.82 | 6.87-1.13 | 1.82 | 340,491 | 1.94 | |||||||||
| Grady | 25 | 52.55 | 48.54 | 5.76-4.24 | 4.56-3.44 | 4.13 | 16,218 | 60.66 | |||||||||
| Columbia | 29 | 51.26 | 49.77 | 5.27-4.73 | 4.33-3.67 | 4.40 | 7,018 | 141.49 | |||||||||
| Arabia Mountain | 30 | 50.94 | 53.58 | 4.59-5.41 | 4.30-3.70 | 4.78 | 6,250 | 159.00 | |||||||||
| Chamblee | 38 | 45.63 | 45.97 | 4.95-5.05 | 3.46-4.54 | 5.82 | 923 | 1,082.42 | |||||||||
| Lithonia | 48 | 39.04 | 45.33 | 4.03-5.97 | 2.45-5.55 | 6.69 | 81 | 12,344.68 | |||||||||
| Stone Mountain | 51 | 35.65 | 53.76 | 2.13-7.87 | 1.98-6.03 | 7.34 | 10 | 99,999.00 | |||||||||
| Redan | 58 | 25.44 | 46.68 | 1.75-8.25 | 0.81-7.19 | 8.56 | - | - | Cross Keys† | 69 | -22.67 | 7.26 | 0.72-4.28 | ||||
| † - Plays non-region schedule | |||||||||||||||||
7 - AAAA
| Projected Record | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Rank | Rating | Sch Str | Overall | Region | Avg Fin | First | Odds |
| Cartersville | 12 | 64.43 | 43.31 | 7.75-2.25 | 6.25-0.75 | 1.51 | 669,037 | 0.49 |
| Northwest Whitfield | 22 | 53.54 | 40.37 | 7.18-2.82 | 5.10-1.90 | 2.62 | 134,369 | 6.44 |
| Gilmer | 27 | 51.72 | 36.15 | 7.34-2.66 | 4.93-2.07 | 2.93 | 131,832 | 6.59 |
| Ridgeland | 37 | 46.22 | 35.48 | 6.66-3.34 | 4.26-2.74 | 3.72 | 52,500 | 18.05 |
| Pickens | 47 | 39.29 | 38.10 | 5.17-4.83 | 3.44-3.56 | 4.61 | 12,026 | 82.15 |
| Southeast Whitfield | 55 | 28.19 | 28.67 | 4.95-5.05 | 2.07-4.93 | 6.14 | 231 | 4,328.00 |
| LaFayette | 60 | 20.35 | 35.48 | 2.89-7.11 | 1.21-5.79 | 6.92 | 5 | 199,999.00 |
| Heritage (Ringgold) | 64 | 13.79 | 42.05 | 1.19-8.81 | 0.75-6.25 | 7.54 | - | - |
8 - AAAA
| Projected Record | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Rank | Rating | Sch Str | Overall | Region | Avg Fin | First | Odds |
| Buford | 1 | 94.31 | 55.67 | 9.59-0.41 | 6.84-0.16 | 1.08 | 930,524 | 0.07 |
| Monroe Area | 11 | 65.31 | 53.25 | 6.81-3.19 | 4.74-2.26 | 2.84 | 41,348 | 23.18 |
| North Hall | 13 | 62.17 | 57.49 | 5.77-4.23 | 4.25-2.75 | 3.53 | 23,597 | 41.38 |
| North Oconee | 17 | 57.03 | 57.68 | 4.90-5.10 | 3.58-3.42 | 4.26 | 2,060 | 484.44 |
| White County | 23 | 53.30 | 49.18 | 5.65-4.35 | 3.04-3.96 | 5.14 | 1,666 | 599.24 |
| Chestatee | 26 | 52.10 | 54.14 | 4.65-5.35 | 2.82-4.18 | 5.32 | 753 | 1,327.02 |
| Stephens County | 34 | 48.07 | 54.09 | 4.09-5.91 | 2.31-4.69 | 5.95 | 52 | 19,229.77 |
| Madison County | 54 | 28.67 | 52.94 | 1.62-8.38 | 0.42-6.58 | 7.87 | - | - |
| Johnson (Gainesville)† | 61 | 18.39 | 28.56 | 2.99-7.01 | ||||
| † - Plays non-region schedule | ||||||||
