Prince Avenue, Philo favored vs. Swainsboro; Bowdon-Manchester replay rated a pick-em

Footballs are shown on the field before the game between Grayson and Parkview at Parkview High School, Friday, November 3, 2023, in Lilburn, Ga. (Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com)a

Credit: Jason.Getz@ajc.com

Credit: Jason.Getz@ajc.com

Footballs are shown on the field before the game between Grayson and Parkview at Parkview High School, Friday, November 3, 2023, in Lilburn, Ga. (Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com)a

It has been said: Prince Avenue quarterback Aaron Philo is chasing Georgia high school football history.

Philo, who has committed to Georgia Tech, needs to pass for 300 yards to tie and 301 yards to surpass Trevor Lawrence (13,902 yards) and set a new GHSA all-time passing record.

And when looking at the Maxwell Projections, the defending-champion Wolverines are favored.

The computer says that Prince Avenue will defeat Swainsboro in the Division I championship game 803,674.41 times out of 1,000,000 simulations.

Prince Avenue (13-1) is outscoring opponents 640-212, led by Philo, who is 297-of-429 passing for 4,276 yards and 53 touchdowns with eight interceptions. Freshman Hudson Hill has 72 receptions for 1,107 yards and 17 touchdowns, and sophomore C.J. Dockery has 47 catches for 815 yards and 11 touchdowns. Conor Causby (14 touchdown runs) and Philo (13) lead the run game.

But Prince Avenue is not facing a slouch.

Swainsboro quarterback Demello Jones, who has committed to the University of Georgia as a safety, does a little bit of everything. And when the Class A season begins Monday in the Division I championship, Jones will have to get crafty and, well, do a little bit of everything.

Jones is 14-of-33 passing for 300 yards and six touchdowns, but has run the ball 129 times for 1,160 yards and 10 touchdowns. Jordon Williams leads the run-heavy team with 133 carries for 1,212 yards and 16 touchdowns, and Qindarius Brown has 132 carries for 992 yards and 14 touchdowns.

In Class A Division II, the state championship game between defending-champion Bowdon and Manchester is a toss-up.

Literally.

The Maxwell Projections narrowly favors Bowdon, stipulating that Bowden won 504,494.14 times in 1,000,000 simulations. That’s not a lot of distance for Manchester, who won in the computer 495,505.86 times. It’s the closest projection of the eight classes rated by the Maxwell Projections.

Bowdon is trying for the program’s fourth title. Manchester will play for the second championship in school history in its first finals appearance since the title victory in 1997. Manchester defeated Bowdon 21-20 in the season-opener on Aug. 18.

Bowdon is outscoring opponents 610-253 and led by senior quarterback Kyler McGrinn, who is 110-of-177 passing for 1,908 yards and 24 touchdowns while rushing for 1,965 yards and 30 touchdowns. Jordan Beasley adds 1,335 rushing yards with 17 touchdowns.

Manchester has outscored opponents 419-107 while attempting just 20 passes all season. The Blue Devils are led by juniors Qua Cooper (10 touchdown runs) and Darius Favors (10 touchdown runs) to account for 20 of the team’s 32 rushing touchdowns. Six other players combine for 12 touchdown runs for Manchester.

Manchester’s four-star junior defensive lineman and Georgia-commit Justus Terry anchors the defense. The 6-foot-5, 275-pounder has 74 solo tackles and six tackles for loss with 13 sacks.

Monday

4 p.m. - A Division 1 (Swainsboro vs. Prince Avenue)

7:00 p.m. - A Division 2 (Bowdon vs. Manchester)