The SEC, as we know because the SEC is constantly reminding us, is really good at football. The SEC, as we’ve seen yet again, is also really lucky. If Auburn beats Florida State in Pasadena on Jan. 6, the SEC’s string of consecutive BCS titles will reach eight. In three of those seasons, the SEC needed its champion to jump someone in the final BCS standings to reach No. 2.
It happened in 2006, when UCLA upset Southern Cal and Urban Meyer, then of Florida, talked his Gators above idle Michigan. It happened in 2007, when No. 7 LSU bounded to No. 2 – passing two teams (Missouri and West Virginia) that lost, one team (Virginia Tech) that won and two more (Georgia and Kansas) that didn’t play. Bang on cue, it just happened again.
Ohio State’s jittery loss to Michigan State spared Auburn much Sunday angst and the BCS much seasonal grief. The SEC’s lobbying for its yet-to-be-crowned champ had already begun: Commissioner Mike Slive happened to drop by the Georgia Dome press box at halftime and mention “strength of schedule,” and afterward Auburn athletic director Jay Jacobs dropped those three words to reporters and, just in case anyone missed the point, repeated the phrase three times.
In the BCS’ first 15 seasons of existence, never had a one-loss team been invited to play for the national championship at the expense of an unbeaten team from a major league. Had Ohio State gotten to 13-0, the back-and-forth’ing would have raged into the next century. From SEC zealots: “No way Ohio State would have been even 9-3 in this conference.” From Big 10 backers: “Oh, yeah? When’s the last time your newest champion actually tackled somebody?”
By midnight Saturday, the debate was rendered moot. The much-reviled BCS was left to pass into memory, to be replaced by the College Football Playoff next season, in relative peace. And here Auburn can feel grateful that its bounceback season arrived in 2013 and not 2014: With a four-team playoff in place, the Tigers’ next assignment would have been – you guessed it – Alabama again, this time on a neutral field. (The other semifinal would have pitted No. 1 Florida State against No. 4 Michigan State, which would have been an intriguing contrast of styles.)
As it is, we get FSU-Auburn at the feet of the San Gabriel Mountains, FSU-Auburn in the famous stadium just east of the Arroyo Seco, which is Spanish for “dry stream.” On the face of it, the SEC’s run of BCS titles looks due to run dry. Florida State ranks third nationally in total defense; Auburn ranks 88th nationally and 12th-best in the 14-team SEC. (The 2010 Tigers won it all with the 60th-ranked defense, which seems steadfast by way of comparison.) At some point defense – or the utter lack thereof – has to matter, doesn’t it?
So you’d think, especially since Florida State also has the better offense, at least on paper. The Seminoles rank No. 6 nationally in yardage to Auburn’s No. 11, and FSU’s strength (14th in yards passing) would seem to dovetail with Auburn’s weakness (104th in passing yards allowed).
But Auburn has proved, somehow, that it can win games without stopping anybody. It yielded 602 yards and 41 points to Texas A&M and trumped that with 615 and 45. It yielded 532 yards and 38 points to Georgia and won with 566 and 43. It yielded 534 yards and 42 points to Missouri but mustered 667 and 59.
The only knock on Florida State is the worth of its opponents. When your competitive benchmarks are Clemson (No. 12 in the final BCS standings) and Duke (No. 24), you haven’t been swimming in the deep end. And FSU, with an average margin of victory of 42.3 points, hasn’t yet entered a fourth quarter with anything less than a double-figure lead.
This could mean that these ’Noles are among the greatest teams in collegiate history. It could also mean that they’re ripe to be exposed. Game No. 14 will be the test. To win the BCS title, Florida State must beat the champion of the league that has cornered the market on BCS titles. Only once in nine tries during the BCS era has an SEC champ lost in the championship game, and that failure — wouldn’t you know it? — came against another SEC team.
Maybe having a month to prepare for Gus Malzahn’s offense will make a difference. Maybe the BCS title game will follow the example of the Nov. 7 revelation administered to Oregon, which seemed unstoppable until Stanford D’d up the Ducks and stopped them flat.
At some point defense has to matter, doesn’t it? Well, doesn’t it?
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