When the betting line was first announced for this year’s Super Bowl, the Carolina Panthers were favored by 3 1/2 in many places. Quickly that line moved to 4, then to 4 1/2, and it is even listed at 5 1/2 or 6 in some places now.
It is not uncommon for the odds to change in any game in any sport, even a game as analyzed as the Super Bowl. Essentially, bettors liked the Panthers in the game, found the 3 1/2-point spread to be an appealing price, and bet heavily on it. In response, bookmakers have continued to increase it.
You might think that the collective wisdom of gamblers would prove to be correct a great deal of the time. But at least at the Super Bowl in recent years, it has not been.
A look at the past 10 Super Bowls that had point spread movement, using opening and closing lines provided by Bookmaker.eu, show that the teams that bettors supported have a record of 5-5.
Although the sample size is small, you have got to give credit to New York Giants bettors. In both of the team’s recent Super Bowl appearances, New York opened as the underdog, and bettors felt the line was too big. Both times they were right, as the Giants not only covered the spread but won the game outright.
Generally, lines move by only a point or 2, partly because the opening numbers are usually fairly accurate, but also because bookmakers are afraid to be caught in what bettors call a “middle.”
The Super Bowl in 1979 is not fondly remembered by linesmakers. The Pittsburgh Steelers opened as a 4 1/2-point favorite, and money came in heavily on the underdog Dallas Cowboys. The line moved to 3 1/2, and this more attractive price brought in money on the favored Steelers. That meant that many Cowboys bettors were getting 4 1/2 points, while Steelers bettors largely were giving only 3 1/2.
When the game finished as a 4-point win for the Steelers, almost everybody won, except the bookies, who were caught in the middle and found themselves paying off both sides.
A more modern way to adjust the odds without the danger of a middle, is adjusting the extra money, or “vigorish,” that bettors must pay. Pinnacle, for example, is offering a 4 1/2-point spread, but money is still coming in on the Panthers at that price. So Pinnacle requires Panthers bettors to put out a little more money, currently $109 to win $100, while encouraging Denver Broncos bettors by only asking for $101 to win the same $100.
Super Bowls generally match two elite teams, so the spread is usually a touchdown or less. That was not always the case. During a period of NFC dominance in the late 1990s, there were five straight Super Bowls in which the AFC team was a 10-point underdog or more, including a record 18 1/2-point spread for the San Francisco 49ers over the San Diego Chargers in 1995. (The Niners won, and covered, by 23.)
The over-under on this year’s game is 45 and appears likely to wind up the lowest total since 2004. Both this year’s teams’ defenses were in the top six in points allowed. On the other hand, the Panthers’ offense averaged a league-leading 31 points a game in the regular season and 40 in the playoffs, making the over attractive.
On an ordinary NFL game, the point spread and over-under are, for the most part, the only games in town. But for the Super Bowl, casinos and online gambling sites pile on the extra bets, including who will win the Most Valuable Player Award (Cam Newton is the favorite, followed by Peyton Manning) and how the opening coin toss will land (not surprisingly, heads and tails are co-favorites). More, weirder bets should be posted in the coming week as bookmakers look for action and publicity.
More than $100 million is bet legally at Nevada sports books on the game each year, and adding in Internet betting companies and old-fashioned illegal bookies the figure is vastly higher. Plenty of people in Denver and the Carolinas will have a passionate rooting interest. But plenty more will be hoping to be counting their winnings at the final whistle.
About the Author
