College basketball fans can rejoice. It's March. Except the madness feels like it's already begun in this volatile season in which the current top five teams in the Coaches Poll have lost a combined 23 games compared with nine losses at this time a year ago.
The bracketology seeds have shifted drastically, and all signs point to an unpredictable NCAA tournament. Here are some bold projections ahead of conference championship week and Selection Sunday:
Zero No. 1 seeds in power conferences will win their tournaments
The regular-season champion in a power conference always has a strong chance of winning the league tournament. Last season, for example, five of the six power conference No. 1 seeds won both championships. But this isn't a usual season. There is a strong chance North Carolina (ACC), Kansas (Big 12), Indiana (Big Ten), Villanova (Big East), Texas A&M (SEC) and Oregon (Pac-12) won't secure automatic NCAA bids next week. Expect these teams to pull off upsets, even though won't really be upsets.
► ACC: Virginia
► Big 12: Iowa State
► Big Ten: Michigan State
► Big East: Xavier
► SEC: Vanderbilt
► Pac-12: Utah
Denzel Valentine wins National Player of the Year
With no disrespect to the front-runner, Buddy Hield of Oklahoma, Michigan State guard Denzel Valentine is deserving. Though Hield is having a huge season — shooting 48 percent from 3-point range and recording nine games with 30-or-more points — Valentine's overall numbers are off the charts. He averages 19.6 points, 7.6 rebounds and 7.2 assists a game.
No player in the last two decades has recorded those kinds of numbers in all of those categories. The 6-5 senior has delivered in the clutch, as well. He steered Michigan State to a victory against Kansas in November and has been Tom Izzo's go-to guy down the stretch all season.
Hield makes his team better by scoring in high volume. Valentine, however, does it in a variety of ways, including some that don't show up on the stat sheet.
Greg Gard will win coach of the year
There's been so much talk about Gard securing the permanent job as head coach at Wisconsin, that Bo Ryan's replacement hasn't been considered in the discussion for the country's best coach. But why not? He's helped the Badgers (19-10, 11-5) grow and weather the storm while keeping Ryan's winning philosophy alive.
A fantastic season is often based on talent just as much as it is coaching. And that's what made Ryan so special — he won without the top-tier talent that John Calipari or Bill Self haul in. It's also what makes Gard special; the Badgers have two veterans and then a whole new cast. Plus he's driven the team to success in a transitioning year when adversity came in large doses.
Established coaches don't have those particular challenges. Self, Xavier's Chris Mack, or even Indiana's Tom Crean and Texas' Shaka Smart might be the front-runners for this award. But Gard is completely deserving.
Saturday will be Rick Pitino's last at Louisville
The hall of fame coach is taking time to decide whether this will be his last season. It would be a shocker simply because Pitino has been the face of the program — and a signature figure in the sports — for the past 15 years. He hasn't completely shot down the idea of stepping away and if he did it certainly wouldn't be on a high note.
Louisville will end its season Saturday because of a self-imposed postseason ban by the university in the wake of an alleged pay-for-sex scandal under Pitino's watch.
"This team rejuvenated me in a great way, because I have awesome guys who are playing for nothing still giving me incredible effort each night," Pitino said Monday. "I'll step away from the game after the season and say, 'Are you having fun?' I'll look at it and do some thinking and then let the chips fall where they may."
Monmouth will be the only mid-major to get an at-large and won't disappoint as a Cinderella
The Hawks getting into the NCAA tournament and staging a storybook run would be almost too good to be true. Often when a Cinderella is born, the national audience doesn't know about the team. Yet, Monmouth established itself as a lovable team way before March thanks to the bench players' hilarious celebrations. And 5-8 point guard Justin Robinson (20.2 ppg, 3.7 apg, 2.2 spg) is a star.
The Hawks very well could be the only mid-major to get an at-large bid. Gonzaga's profile isn't good enough to get in if it loses in the West Coast Conference tournament. Wichita State has a solid chance, but all signs point to the Shockers running away with another Missouri Valley Tournament title in St. Louis.
That leaves Monmouth, which boasts a surprisingly legit résumé that includes wins against UCLA, Notre Dame, Southern California and Georgetown. The Hawks will be a No. 1 seed in the MAAC tournament, but Iona has a good chance of winning; the Gaels beat Monmouth by 16 points two weeks ago. If that scenario does unfold and the NCAA committee grants the Hawks an at-large bid, the red carpet for another Florida Gulf Coast will be rolled out.
These under-the-radar stars will shine
► Alec Peters, Valparaiso: Junior big man averages 17.5 points and 8.3 rebounds a game on a veteran-laden team that should win the Horizon League. He had 18 points in a near-upset of Maryland last year.
► Dallas Moore, North Florida: Junior guard averages 19.7 points and 6.1 assists a game for the Ospreys' high-octane offense.
► Craig Bradshaw, Belmont: Senior guard can explode for 30-point games, averaging 16.3 points a game for Rick Byrd-coached squad.
► Justin Sears, Yale: Senior forward averages 16.7 points and 7.4 rebounds for the Ivy League's best team right now.
► Stefan Jankovic, Hawaii: Junior big man averages 16.3 points and 6.7 rebounds a game. He had 28 points in the Rainbow Warriors' last win against Cal State Northridge.
► Jameel Warney, Stony Brook: Senior big man plays with a high motor, averaging 18.7 points and 10.2 rebounds a game.
► Joel Bolomboy, Weber State: Senior forward has NBA potential and averages 17.6 points and 13.0 rebounds a game for the Big Sky favorite. If he's healthy, he'll be a force.
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