NFL playoff scenarios: Watch Week 14 like an expert

AFC East

New England Patriots (10-2) — A win this week guarantees the Patriots a spot in the postseason, but a postseason berth was already basically assured. Instead, Patriots fans should be thinking about how to secure a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That means a Bengals loss and a Broncos loss, in that order.

Best outcome: Patriots beat Texans, Steelers beat Bengals, Raiders beat Broncos.

New York Jets (7-5) — Don’t worry about the doomsday scenario that could keep an 11-5 Jets team out of the postseason — it’s so unlikely that it’s not worth your time. This week, the Jets should root against the two other 7-5 teams in the AFC — the Steelers and the Chiefs — and keep their distance from the Bills in the AFC East.

Best outcome: Jets beat Titans, Eagles beat Bills, Bengals beat Steelers, Chargers beat Chiefs.

Buffalo Bills (6-6) — The Bills don’t control their chances, and the help they’ll need starts Sunday. Without a real chance to win the division, they should instead focus on bad things happening to other potential AFC wild-card teams.

Best outcome: Bills beat Eagles, Bengals beat Steelers, Titans beat Jets, Chargers beat Chiefs.

Miami Dolphins (5-7) — A loss would effectively eliminate the Dolphins. Then again, part of the joy of our simulator is that it enables some indulgence — like showing how an 8-8 season could technically put them in the postseason. This week, two games push their chances away from zero (to one percent).

Best outcome: Dolphins beat Giants, Titans beat Jets.

AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals (10-2) — The Bengals are on top of the division and will probably be in the playoffs even if they lose out. A win clinches the division, but this week is for plotting a first-round bye, which is simple enough not to require a fancy simulator. The Bengals share the AFC’s best record with two other teams — the Patriots and the Broncos. Root against those two teams.

Best outcome: Bengals beat Steelers, Texans beat Patriots, Raiders beat Broncos.

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) — The Steelers technically control their chances, but it’s unlikely they’ll end their season with four consecutive wins. The Steelers will probably need help. That starts this week.

Best outcome: Steelers beat Bengals, Titans beat Jets, Eagles beat Bills, Patriots beat Texans

Baltimore Ravens (4-8) — In an average year, an 8-8 team — the Ravens’ best possible record this season — can expect to make the postseason just 10 percent of the time. It’s a long shot, but technically, it could happen.

Best outcome: Ravens beat Seahawks, but don’t get your hopes up.

Cleveland Browns — (2-10) The Browns are out.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts (6-6) — Someone has to win the AFC South, and at the moment the Colts are on top. Their game against the Texans in Week 15 matters more than any game this week, but a Texans loss on Sunday would help the Colts, too. Other than that, not many games matter in Week 14.

Best outcome: Colts beat Jaguars, Patriots beat Texans.

Houston Texans (6-6) — Everything that’s true for the Colts is true for the Texans in reverse. Week 15 at Indianapolis is their most important game, but any Colts loss is welcome to the Texans.

Best outcome: Texans beat Patriots, Jaguars beat Colts

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) — The Jaguars’ best chance at a postseason berth is to win their division with an 8-8 record, which is indeed something that can happen in the AFC South. This week is simple: Cheer against the Texans and try not to worry about most other games.

Best outcome: Jaguars beat Colts, Patriots beat Texans.

Tennessee Titans (3-9) — It’s possible for the Titans to become division champions with a 7-9 record, but end-of-season meltdowns for the Colts and the Texans would need to start happening as soon as possible.

Best outcome: Titans beat Jets, Jaguars beat Colts, Patriots beat Texans

AFC West

Denver Broncos (10-2) — With the AFC’s top record, the Broncos are in a strong position for a bye week. Two other teams — the Patriots and the Bengals — share that record, but a Patriots loss is worth far more than a Bengals one.

Best outcome: Broncos beat Raiders, Texans beat Patriots, Bengals beat Steelers.

Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) — The Chiefs are on strong footing for a wild-card spot. A win this week gets them very close; a Steelers or Jets loss would nearly seal the deal.

Best outcome: Chiefs beat Chargers, Titans beat Jets, Bengals beat Steelers

Oakland Raiders (5-7) — The combination of games that ends with the Raiders in the playoffs is unlikely but not impossible, and many good things could happen to them this week. If five games go their way this week, their chances go from less than one percent to about six percent.

Best outcome: Raiders beat Broncos, Chargers beat Chiefs, Titans beat Jets, Bengals beat Steelers, Eagles beat Bills

San Diego Chargers (3-9) — The Chargers are alive, in a technical sense. (37 quintillion possibilities is a large number, and one or two of them do end with the Chargers as a wild-card team in the 2015 season.) They must beat Kansas City on Sunday to even indulge that fantasy.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles (5-7) — The top three teams in the NFC East are 5-7; at the moment, the Eagles are in the best position to make it out and into the postseason, as someone must. The only games that matter this week to these teams are the ones that separate them from the divisional pack — it’s unlikely any has a real chance of a wild-card berth.

Best outcome: Eagles beat Bills, Dolphins beat Giants, Bears beat Redskins, Packers beat Cowboys.

New York Giants (5-7) — Same thing here: Cheer for your team, root against anyone in the division.

Best outcome: Giants beat Dolphins, Bills beat Eagles, Bears beat Redskins, Packers beat Cowboys

Washington Redskins (5-7) — While the official standings have the Redskins in first place on head-to-head records, our estimates have them as least likely to make the postseason. The Redskins’ most important game is in Week 16 at Philadelphia, but this week they have the same goals as everyone else: win and hope everyone else in the division loses.

Best outcome: Redskins beat Bears, Dolphins beat Giants, Bills beat Eagles, Packers beat Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys (4-8) — They need less help than a 4-8 team perhaps deserves to need. If you’re a Cowboys fan and you can pick only one loser, make it the Giants.

Best outcome: Cowboys beat Packers, Dolphins beat Giants, Bills beat Eagles, Bears beat Redskins

NFC North

Green Bay Packers (8-4) — While not a guarantee, the playoffs are a very likely outcome for the Packers. Don’t worry about the division (that is to say, the Vikings) this week. Instead, keep your eyes on the bigger prize — a first-round bye week. This means cheering for the Vikings this week against the Cardinals, especially if you’re confident the Packers can end the season with a win against the Vikings at Lambeau. In January.

Best outcome: Packers beat Cowboys, Vikings beat Cardinals

Minnesota Vikings (8-4) — Having lost to the Packers earlier this season, the Vikings don’t have a real shot at a bye, and a loss Thursday against Arizona would make it all but impossible. If the division championship is your goal, do what fans in Minnesota always do: Root against the Packers. Otherwise, a handful of games help the Vikings’ overall playoff chances.

Best outcome: Vikings beat Cardinals, Saints beat Bucs, Panthers beat Falcons

Chicago Bears (5-7) — A wild-card berth is the Bears’ best bet. Week 15’s game against the Vikings matters most, but a Vikings loss Thursday would help them, too.

Best outcome: Bears beat Redskins, Cardinals beat Vikings, Panthers beat Falcons

Detroit Lions (4-8) — If the Lions win out, and more than a dozen other games go their way, yes, they could make the playoffs as the No. 6 seed. For now, cheer for a win against the Rams on Sunday. If you’re feeling greedy, cheer for the Ravens, too.

Best outcome: Lions beat Rams, Ravens beat Seahawks

NFC South

Carolina Panthers (12-0) — With the league’s best record and as the only undefeated team remaining, the Panthers already have a 90 percent chance at the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Only one other game matters much to the Panthers in Week 14: They should root for the Vikings over the Cardinals on Thursday night.

Best outcome: Panthers beat Falcons, Vikings beat Cardinals.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) — A wild-card berth is the Bucs’ only chance at the postseason. Lots of games could help them in Week 14 — any loss by an NFC team not in first place is great news. If the week goes perfectly for Tampa Bay, the Bucs will enter Week 15 with about a one-in-three chance.

Best outcome: Bucs beat Saints, Ravens beat Seahawks, Cowboys beat Packers, Cardinals beat Vikings, Panthers beat Falcons

Atlanta Falcons (6-6) — Like the Bucs, the Falcons must get a wild-card berth if they want a place in the postseason.

Best outcome: Falcons beat Panthers, Cowboys beat Packers, Ravens beat Seahawks, Cardinals beat Vikings, Saints beat Bucs, Redskins beat Bears

New Orleans Saints (4-8) — They’ll need significant help after Week 14 to have a shot. Beating the Bucs in Tampa is a necessity, but small things help on the fringes, too. The four games shown here represent just the start.

Best outcome: Saints beat Bucs, Cowboys beat Packers, Ravens beat Seahawks, Cardinals beat Vikings

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals (10-2) — The playoffs are essentially a sure thing for the Cardinals; aim for a bye week instead. If the Cardinals beat the Vikings and the Packers lose to the Cowboys, the Cardinals will have a three-game lead on their closest NFC opponent, with three weeks remaining. Easy math.

Best outcome: Cardinals beat Vikings, Cowboys beat Packers

Seattle Seahawks (7-5) — Winning the division is nearly impossible for the Seahawks, but a wild-card berth is very likely. Seahawks fans should root for first-place teams to stay in first place this week.

Best outcome: Seahawks beat Ravens, Cardinals beat Vikings, Saints beat Bucs, Panthers beat Falcons

St. Louis Rams (4-8) — The Rams can’t make the playoffs if they don’t beat the Seahawks in Week 16, but there’s still plenty of help available this week. A Rams miracle would, by definition, coincide with a Seahawks meltdown.

Best outcome: Rams beat Lions, Ravens beat Seahawks, Panthers beat Falcons

San Francisco 49ers (4-8) — Easy prediction: The 49ers will not be in the playoffs. They have not been eliminated yet, and anything’s possible, but we’re not crossing our fingers.

Best outcome: 49ers beat Browns, Saints beat Bucs, Cardinals beat Vikings, Redskins beat Bears