Mark Bradley: This NCAA Tournament really could be a fiasco

A college basketball season without form and often without function generated a 48-hour refresher course in Chaos Theory this week. Beginning Tuesday and carrying into Thursday, we saw:

Indiana, which could have clinched its first outright Big Ten title since 1993, lose at home to an Ohio State team it had thumped on the road.

Georgetown, which had won 11 games in succession and which could have clinched a share of the Big East title, lose at Villanova by 10 points.

Miami, which could have clinched its first outright ACC title ever, lose at home to a Georgia Tech team it had thumped on the road.

UCLA, which was tied for first place in the Pac-12, lose by 12 points to last-place Washington State, which hadn't beaten the Bruins in Pullman since 1993.

Kentucky, which won it all last season but has nearly played its way into the NIT, lose to a sub-.500 Georgia team by 10 points.

It was no accident that, at the start of this careening week, Gonzaga became the fifth different team to be ranked No. 1 this season. The Bulldogs, as ever, are a polished and potent squad, but when a team that hasn’t beaten anyone any better than Saint Mary’s since New Year’s ascends to the nation’s top spot – FYI, Georgia Tech beat Saint Mary’s three days after Thanksgiving – it tells us all we need to know about the state of the nation.

A week from Selection Sunday, clarity and consensus remain in hibernation. The 2012 NCAA tournament began with five teams having stamped themselves as a cut above – Kentucky, North Carolina, Syracuse, Michigan State and Kansas. Any one of those five teams had more going for it than anybody on this year's board. This might well be the year that a 16th seed unhorses a No. 1, for the simple reason that these projected No. 1's look like No. 3's.

Indiana entered the season ranked No. 1, but the Hoosiers don’t guard very well – where have you gone, Quinn Buckner? – and don’t rebound, either. Michigan doesn’t defend much, either. Florida has had issues closing out games. Kansas looked great up until the moment when it forgot how to win. Miami seemed to have separated itself from the ACC pack, only to lose three of its next four games.

It would be a stretch to say any team in the nation looks good enough to win six (if not seven) NCAA tournament games, but some team will. Maybe it’ll be Duke: In a field where nobody stands out, coaching might well be the determinant. Maybe it’ll be Michigan State, where the same applies. Maybe it’ll be Louisville, which looked awful in mid-January but hasn’t lost in regulation since.

Or maybe it’ll be a team from a lesser league. Maybe Gonzaga, which has lost only twice, or Butler, which beat Gonzaga, or VCU, which has distinguished itself in Year 1 in the Atlantic 10. In a season so turbulent, you’d have to figure at least one mid-major (or high mid-major, depending on your definition) would crash the Final Four, wouldn’t you?

Maybe not. That’s the contrary charm of the Big Dance: When you think you’ve got it figured out, your wadded-up bracket will stand as proof that you didn’t. Those five cut-above teams from last season? Only two made the Final Four, and one of the two was a No. 2 seed.

The proliferation of one-and-done players has diluted the collegiate product, but it has also served to make the NCAA tournament a place where absolutely anything can happen. Over the past three tournaments, only two No. 1 seeds (Duke in 2010, Kentucky last season) have made the Final Four. That’s two of 12, or 16.7 percent. Even Dan Uggla hits better than .167.

The Kentucky team that won it all last April might well have been the last truly great NCAA champion we’ll see. Those Wildcats had a mesh that will elude most young aggregation, and more and more college basketball boils down to this: If you’re a talented team, you’re too young, and if you’re a seasoned team, you’re not very talented.

The 26th installment of Bradley's Bracket Fiasco – yes, our little contest heads into its second quarter-century – will crank up the evening of Selection Sunday, and in years past I've tried to give you folks a sneak peak as to which teams I'm apt to pick. (So you can be smart and pick against me, har har.) This year ... well, as of now you're on your own.

I can’t tell you I like this or that team because I don’t really like anybody. I know full well that somebody will claim the nets at the Georgia Dome on April 8, but I’d be lying if I told you I knew which team it’ll be.