Maxwell GHSA playoff projections heading into quarterfinals
Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class in the GHSA.
The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2023 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 iterations.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
Class AAAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrollton | #1 (2-AAAAAA) | 12-0 | 101.93 | 91.05 | 3.91 | 1,000,000.00 | 980,856.90 | 517,114.04 | 414,913.79 | 1.41 |
| Buford | #1 (8-AAAAAA) | 11-1 | 102.71 | 94.02 | 3.71 | 1,000,000.00 | 867,203.39 | 461,317.36 | 376,705.69 | 1.65 |
| Douglas County | #2 (2-AAAAAA) | 10-2 | 91.40 | 91.81 | 3.60 | 1,000,000.00 | 948,389.28 | 529,114.23 | 117,773.28 | 7.49 |
| Grayson | #1 (4-AAAAAA) | 11-1 | 89.60 | 93.90 | 2.97 | 1,000,000.00 | 603,309.57 | 305,374.47 | 57,465.40 | 16.40 |
| Collins Hill | #2 (8-AAAAAA) | 11-1 | 87.33 | 95.33 | 2.58 | 1,000,000.00 | 396,690.43 | 161,873.26 | 24,425.75 | 39.94 |
| North Gwinnett | #1 (7-AAAAAA) | 12-0 | 87.04 | 99.11 | 2.16 | 1,000,000.00 | 132,796.61 | 21,013.89 | 8,599.53 | 115.29 |
| West Forsyth | #3 (6-AAAAAA) | 9-3 | 68.33 | 95.63 | 2.06 | 1,000,000.00 | 51,610.72 | 3,638.03 | 68.15 | 14,673.00 |
| Hillgrove | #2 (3-AAAAAA) | 11-1 | 70.29 | 99.46 | 2.02 | 1,000,000.00 | 19,143.10 | 554.71 | 48.41 | 20,656.44 |
Class AAAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee County | #1 (2-AAAAA) | 12-0 | 104.39 | 92.79 | 3.99 | 1,000,000.00 | 970,571.71 | 573,135.31 | 448,241.41 | 1.23 |
| Milton | #1 (7-AAAAA) | 12-0 | 102.11 | 94.79 | 3.67 | 1,000,000.00 | 941,422.19 | 421,508.84 | 309,769.27 | 2.23 |
| Thomas County Central | #2 (2-AAAAA) | 11-1 | 96.92 | 93.79 | 3.55 | 1,000,000.00 | 742,241.00 | 615,286.98 | 195,813.84 | 4.11 |
| Coffee | #3 (2-AAAAA) | 10-2 | 86.68 | 95.48 | 2.97 | 1,000,000.00 | 746,027.71 | 200,082.67 | 24,539.19 | 39.75 |
| Hughes | #1 (3-AAAAA) | 11-1 | 86.86 | 96.11 | 2.43 | 1,000,000.00 | 257,759.00 | 156,625.59 | 19,552.88 | 50.14 |
| Sequoyah | #2 (6-AAAAA) | 11-1 | 76.46 | 96.08 | 2.28 | 1,000,000.00 | 253,972.29 | 28,004.76 | 1,134.86 | 880.17 |
| Houston County | #4 (2-AAAAA) | 8-4 | 80.15 | 101.40 | 2.06 | 1,000,000.00 | 58,577.81 | 3,621.46 | 728.42 | 1,371.83 |
| Sprayberry | #1 (6-AAAAA) | 11-1 | 75.20 | 100.30 | 2.03 | 1,000,000.00 | 29,428.29 | 1,734.40 | 220.13 | 4,541.75 |
Class AAAA
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Oconee | #1 (8-AAAA) | 12-0 | 90.89 | 81.21 | 3.83 | 1,000,000.00 | 819,496.49 | 584,924.13 | 430,008.22 | 1.33 |
| Blessed Trinity | #1 (6-AAAA) | 10-1 | 85.07 | 82.68 | 3.27 | 1,000,000.00 | 777,935.61 | 309,280.56 | 179,999.23 | 4.56 |
| Marist | #1 (5-AAAA) | 12-0 | 83.35 | 81.99 | 3.31 | 1,000,000.00 | 743,701.70 | 410,204.61 | 155,206.69 | 5.44 |
| Eastside | #2 (8-AAAA) | 11-1 | 83.24 | 84.24 | 2.91 | 1,000,000.00 | 524,625.04 | 279,140.12 | 104,807.46 | 8.54 |
| Creekside | #1 (4-AAAA) | 9-2 | 81.18 | 83.83 | 2.79 | 1,000,000.00 | 475,374.96 | 238,248.28 | 77,040.60 | 11.98 |
| Cartersville | #1 (7-AAAA) | 12-0 | 78.26 | 85.87 | 2.27 | 1,000,000.00 | 180,503.51 | 67,425.78 | 25,879.54 | 37.64 |
| Cambridge | #3 (6-AAAA) | 10-2 | 75.68 | 85.32 | 2.34 | 1,000,000.00 | 256,298.30 | 72,406.99 | 14,831.22 | 66.43 |
| Benedictine | #3 (1-AAAA) | 7-4 | 75.83 | 86.41 | 2.27 | 1,000,000.00 | 222,064.39 | 38,369.53 | 12,227.05 | 80.79 |
Class AAA Public
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson | #1 (8-AAA) | 9-3 | 75.28 | 63.57 | 4.01 | 1,000,000.00 | 814,118.99 | 702,407.43 | 492,372.36 | 1.03 |
| Peach County | #3 (1-AAA) | 11-1 | 71.27 | 64.63 | 3.66 | 1,000,000.00 | 737,540.23 | 617,351.46 | 300,209.62 | 2.33 |
| LaGrange | #20 (2-AAA) | 9-3 | 63.04 | 67.44 | 2.94 | 1,000,000.00 | 724,444.02 | 155,781.83 | 58,676.39 | 16.04 |
| Calhoun | #6 (7-AAA) | 9-3 | 63.87 | 68.53 | 2.50 | 1,000,000.00 | 262,459.77 | 179,211.02 | 54,040.23 | 17.50 |
| Cherokee Bluff | #8 (8-AAA) | 11-1 | 64.18 | 69.49 | 2.35 | 1,000,000.00 | 185,881.01 | 115,283.23 | 46,851.42 | 20.34 |
| Stephenson | #7 (5-AAA) | 9-3 | 60.36 | 66.88 | 2.93 | 1,000,000.00 | 724,134.21 | 169,927.00 | 38,951.65 | 24.67 |
| North Hall | #5 (6-AAA) | 10-2 | 53.74 | 68.45 | 2.31 | 1,000,000.00 | 275,555.98 | 26,527.52 | 4,729.33 | 210.45 |
| Southeast Bulloch | #18 (3-AAA) | 10-2 | 53.53 | 68.43 | 2.31 | 1,000,000.00 | 275,865.79 | 33,510.52 | 4,168.99 | 238.87 |
Class AA Public
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierce County | #10 (3-AA) | 11-1 | 67.05 | 60.32 | 3.37 | 1,000,000.00 | 620,136.98 | 423,531.36 | 324,407.79 | 2.08 |
| Appling County | #6 (3-AA) | 9-3 | 61.50 | 59.61 | 3.11 | 1,000,000.00 | 669,024.05 | 270,983.15 | 170,446.32 | 4.87 |
| Carver (Columbus) | #2 (1-AA) | 11-1 | 61.73 | 60.99 | 2.74 | 1,000,000.00 | 379,863.02 | 222,975.69 | 141,641.70 | 6.06 |
| Burke County | #4 (4-AA) | 11-1 | 58.95 | 58.28 | 3.15 | 1,000,000.00 | 632,937.83 | 377,065.31 | 139,796.15 | 6.15 |
| Morgan County | #8 (2-AA) | 11-1 | 57.38 | 59.21 | 2.93 | 1,000,000.00 | 567,022.89 | 272,109.56 | 89,658.29 | 10.15 |
| Thomson | #12 (4-AA) | 9-3 | 55.62 | 60.44 | 2.58 | 1,000,000.00 | 367,062.17 | 167,532.21 | 47,961.56 | 19.85 |
| Rockmart | #1 (7-AA) | 10-2 | 53.90 | 59.01 | 2.66 | 1,000,000.00 | 432,977.11 | 183,292.91 | 45,288.73 | 21.08 |
| Stephens County | #14 (8-AA) | 8-4 | 56.85 | 62.42 | 2.45 | 1,000,000.00 | 330,975.95 | 82,509.80 | 40,799.47 | 23.51 |
Class A Division I Public
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toombs County | #6 (3-A Division I) | 10-1 | 74.42 | 58.90 | 4.29 | 1,000,000.00 | 950,287.82 | 712,066.00 | 623,910.81 | 0.60 |
| Thomasville | #7 (1-A Division I) | 10-2 | 67.01 | 67.02 | 2.86 | 1,000,000.00 | 571,980.15 | 167,691.76 | 124,830.78 | 7.01 |
| Dublin | #2 (2-A Division I) | 12-0 | 63.36 | 66.30 | 2.62 | 1,000,000.00 | 428,019.85 | 113,535.97 | 74,133.58 | 12.49 |
| Fannin County | #1 (7-A Division I) | 12-0 | 58.30 | 63.08 | 2.89 | 1,000,000.00 | 538,797.51 | 295,817.22 | 52,829.23 | 17.93 |
| Worth County | #4 (1-A Division I) | 9-3 | 57.78 | 63.46 | 2.83 | 1,000,000.00 | 530,236.51 | 255,965.23 | 43,560.12 | 21.96 |
| Northeast | #8 (2-A Division I) | 10-2 | 58.23 | 64.05 | 2.74 | 1,000,000.00 | 461,202.49 | 234,314.08 | 41,573.11 | 23.05 |
| Fitzgerald | #12 (1-A Division I) | 9-3 | 58.00 | 64.29 | 2.72 | 1,000,000.00 | 469,763.49 | 213,903.47 | 37,148.90 | 25.92 |
| Elbert County | #19 (8-A Division I) | 7-5 | 51.02 | 68.35 | 2.06 | 1,000,000.00 | 49,712.18 | 6,706.26 | 2,013.47 | 495.66 |
Class A Division II
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowdon | #2 (7-A Division II) | 10-2 | 60.22 | 55.90 | 3.50 | 1,000,000.00 | 763,526.42 | 498,786.09 | 237,743.56 | 3.21 |
| Manchester | #1 (7-A Division II) | 9-1 | 63.12 | 59.04 | 3.13 | 1,000,000.00 | 531,725.67 | 363,570.38 | 233,465.44 | 3.28 |
| Lincoln County | #1 (8-A Division II) | 11-0 | 62.06 | 59.48 | 2.96 | 1,000,000.00 | 468,274.33 | 307,603.20 | 188,674.82 | 4.30 |
| Brooks County | #1 (2-A Division II) | 8-4 | 58.07 | 56.53 | 3.34 | 1,000,000.00 | 865,354.72 | 317,669.02 | 158,899.95 | 5.29 |
| Irwin County | #3 (2-A Division II) | 11-1 | 58.05 | 56.84 | 3.30 | 1,000,000.00 | 785,086.56 | 366,137.36 | 151,562.34 | 5.60 |
| Clinch County | #2 (2-A Division II) | 11-1 | 50.44 | 58.91 | 2.35 | 1,000,000.00 | 236,473.58 | 90,980.95 | 20,490.47 | 47.80 |
| Trion | #3 (7-A Division II) | 10-2 | 47.23 | 59.47 | 2.27 | 1,000,000.00 | 214,913.44 | 44,095.61 | 7,347.90 | 135.09 |
| Jenkins County | #2 (3-A Division II) | 10-2 | 43.76 | 60.61 | 2.15 | 1,000,000.00 | 134,645.28 | 11,157.40 | 1,815.52 | 549.81 |
Class AAA to A Private
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rec | Rating | Draw | Depth | Qtr | Semi | Finals | Champ | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Savannah Christian | #1 (3-A Division I) | 10-0 | 83.25 | 68.05 | 4.27 | 1,000,000.00 | 982,670.33 | 716,628.58 | 575,531.54 | 0.74 |
| Hebron Christian | #6 (8-AA) | 9-2 | 73.49 | 69.43 | 3.91 | 1,000,000.00 | 961,655.47 | 735,973.48 | 207,852.35 | 3.81 |
| Prince Avenue Christian | #5 (8-AA) | 8-3 | 78.17 | 75.86 | 3.20 | 1,000,000.00 | 768,613.13 | 254,217.58 | 176,434.75 | 4.67 |
| Fellowship Christian | #2 (5-A Division I) | 9-2 | 64.05 | 72.44 | 3.09 | 1,000,000.00 | 816,179.62 | 241,552.80 | 28,343.48 | 34.28 |
| Calvary Day | #4 (3-AAA) | 10-1 | 66.91 | 78.25 | 2.27 | 1,000,000.00 | 231,386.87 | 28,290.72 | 11,057.92 | 89.43 |
| Wesleyan | #10 (5-A Division I) | 10-2 | 52.83 | 74.86 | 2.20 | 1,000,000.00 | 183,820.38 | 16,770.35 | 584.28 | 1,710.51 |
| Aquinas | #14 (4-AAA) | 8-4 | 47.81 | 74.83 | 2.04 | 1,000,000.00 | 38,344.53 | 5,703.37 | 111.93 | 8,933.10 |
| North Cobb Christian | #8 (7-AA) | 10-1 | 50.77 | 78.49 | 2.02 | 1,000,000.00 | 17,329.67 | 863.13 | 83.75 | 11,939.94 |
