Maxwell semifinal projections: Georgia’s top rated high school football games
These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.
The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.
Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.
The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.
Georgia high school football
Photos from the championship games
Milton in Fulton County to finish No. 2 in six national high school football polls
The playoffs:
- Key details for each of the championship games played Dec. 16-18
- Grayson defense lowers the boom on Carrollton to claim 6A championship
- Calhoun shuts down Jefferson in Class 3A final to win first state title since 2017
- In Class 5A final, champion Milton tested, runner-up Hughes dignified
- Hebron Christian gets redemption over Prince Avenue Christian, claims 1st state title
- Carver-Columbus too much for Burke County in 52-14 rout
- North Oconee flips the script to beat No. 1 Marist for first state title
- Big-play Polke’s TD return sends Toombs to first state title
- ‘Relentless’ Bowdon’s 27-point run against Brooks County leads to three-peat state title
Full high school football coverage
The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.
| Favorite | Projection | Underdog | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Game Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
| Fri, Dec 06 | 103.24 | AAAAAA | Buford | 56.9% | 28 - 27 | 1 | Carrollton | AAAAAA |
| Fri, Dec 06 | 103.19 | AAAAA | Milton | 55.2% | 30 - 28 | 2 | Lee County | AAAAA |
| Fri, Dec 06 | 92.88 | AAAAAA | Grayson | 57.6% | 25 - 21 | 4 | Douglas County | AAAAAA |
| Fri, Dec 06 | 87.52 | AAAA | North Oconee | 58.3% | 20 - 17 | 3 | Blessed Trinity | AAAA |
| Fri, Dec 06 | 87.02 | AAAA | Creekside | 53.8% | 21 - 21 | 0 | Marist | AAAA |
| Fri, Dec 06 | 86.83 | AAAAA | Hughes | 75.9% | 24 - 14 | 10 | Coffee | AAAAA |
| Fri, Dec 06 | 70.00 | A Division I Public | Dublin | 50.3% | 27 - 27 | 0 | Toombs County | A Division I Public |
| Fri, Dec 06 | 67.33 | AAA Public | Jefferson | 79.2% | 29 - 18 | 11 | LaGrange | AAA Public |
| Fri, Dec 06 | 66.50 | Smaller Private | Hebron Christian | 75.4% | 28 - 18 | 10 | Fellowship Christian | Smaller Private |
| Fri, Dec 06 | 64.19 | AAA Public | Calhoun | 67.4% | 24 - 17 | 7 | Stephenson | AAA Public |
| Fri, Dec 06 | 63.82 | AA Public | Carver (Columbus) | 71.0% | 21 - 14 | 7 | Appling County | AA Public |
| Fri, Dec 06 | 60.58 | Smaller Private | Prince Avenue Christian | 92.7% | 40 - 19 | 21 | North Cobb Christian | Smaller Private |
| Fri, Dec 06 | 59.48 | AA Public | Rockmart | 51.3% | 24 - 24 | 0 | Burke County | AA Public |
| Fri, Dec 06 | 59.13 | A Division I Public | Northeast | 60.6% | 21 - 19 | 2 | Fitzgerald | A Division I Public |
| Fri, Dec 06 | 59.07 | A Division II | Bowdon | 64.8% | 30 - 26 | 4 | Irwin County | A Division II |
| Fri, Dec 06 | 58.74 | A Division II | Manchester | 74.9% | 21 - 9 | 12 | Brooks County | A Division II |
