Maxwell Week 6 projections

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Sep 22

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
59.85AAAAAFlowery Branch59.4%21-183EastsideAAAAA
57.90AAACarver (Columbus)50.1%20-200Hapeville CharterAAAA
30.68AAAARiverdale89.1%28-622Fayette CountyAAAA
30.47AAAAAAADuluth91.7%28-028DiscoveryAAAAAAA
14.44AAAAADrew75.9%21-714Stone MountainAAAA
-8.77AAB.E.S.T. Academy90.1%24-024KIPP Atlanta CollegiateAA
-32.30AAAAAMidtown99.4%38-038Cross KeysAAAAA

Sep 23

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
95.19AAAAAAAColquitt County76.9%31-2011Cedar GroveAAA
86.82AAAAAAAMill Creek90.3%40-2119ParkviewAAAAAAA
82.53AAAAAAAMilton71.1%20-812North CobbAAAAAAA
80.66AAAAAAALambert62.9%27-216East CowetaAAAAAAA
78.42AAAAAAHouston County82.9%32-1814Warner RobinsAAAAA
75.34AAAAAWare County81.9%21-615BainbridgeAAAA
74.87AAAAAAAGrayson81.3%31-1813LowndesAAAAAAA
74.05AAAAAAABuford85.4%27-720MariettaAAAAAAA
73.89AAAAAAAWestlake66.6%22-166Collins HillAAAAAAA
72.57AAAAAAAValdosta96.5%35-035McEachernAAAAAAA
72.33AAAAAAASouth Forsyth53.3%19-172BrookwoodAAAAAAA
70.11AAAAACoffee63.3%21-174Richmond HillAAAAAAA
69.73AAAAAAHughes90.1%31-823Douglas CountyAAAAAA
69.37AAAAAAASouth Gwinnett77.9%27-1413NorcrossAAAAAAA
68.28AAAAStarr's Mill80.8%26-1214TroupAAAA
67.23AAAAAAAPebblebrook63.4%27-216HarrisonAAAAAAA
65.35AAAAAAADenmark58.4%14-122DaculaAAAAAAA
65.35AAAAAJefferson57.2%24-213Clarke CentralAAAAA
64.96AAAAAANorthside (Warner Robins)85.2%25-619Crisp CountyAAA
64.12AAAALaGrange58.0%28-244WhitewaterAAAA
63.13AAAAAAAMeadowcreek50.1%21-210Peachtree RidgeAAAAAAA
62.95AAAAAARome87.6%27-621AllatoonaAAAAAA
61.55A Division IIrwin County85.0%22-022MetterA Division I
61.30AAACalvary Day65.0%26-206Savannah ChristianAAA
61.23A Division IRabun County88.0%32-1418Whitefield AcademyA Division I
58.33AAAAAASouth Paulding84.8%33-1716NewnanAAAAAA
57.99AAAAAANorth Forsyth61.8%20-146ShilohAAAAAA
56.95AAASandy Creek89.8%29-722JacksonAAA
56.13AAAAAAACarrollton97.9%35-035HillgroveAAAAAAA
55.87AAAAATucker53.8%20-191StephensonAAAA
55.56AAAAAABlessed Trinity92.8%34-727SprayberryAAAAAA
55.35AAAALovett64.0%21-165Fellowship ChristianAA
54.79AAAAAABrunswick86.6%28-1018Glynn AcademyAAAAAA
54.39AAAACedartown98.0%35-035DaltonAAAAA
52.03AAAAWayne County83.5%26-719JenkinsAAAAA
51.41AAAAAKell88.9%33-1320CentennialAAAAA
51.34AAAAdairsville81.0%30-1713RinggoldAAA
51.34AAAAAAHabersham Central61.5%20-146LanierAAAAAA
51.29AAAASpalding54.9%24-213BaldwinAAAA
50.66A Division IBleckley County87.8%25-025PelhamA Division I
50.30GIAA AAAA-AAAStratford Academy61.6%21-183BrookstoneGIAA AAAA-AAA
49.90AAAABurke County95.8%39-930StatesboroAAAAA
49.28AAAAAAVeterans66.9%21-147NorthgateAAAAA
48.21AAAAAAEvans58.5%22-202GrovetownAAAAAA
47.49AAAAANorthside (Columbus)79.4%30-1812WestoverAAAA
47.45AAAAAAEffingham County88.4%26-026South EffinghamAAAAAA
47.40AAAAALithia Springs73.0%21-129Maynard JacksonAAAAA
47.36AAAAAARoswell98.3%37-037Johns CreekAAAAAA
46.88AAWorth County75.3%24-1410BerrienAA
46.70AACook97.1%38-038Jeff DavisAA
46.46AAFitzgerald97.3%37-037Dodge CountyAA
46.36AAAAEast Forsyth66.8%21-147Walnut GroveAAAA
45.81A Division ISt. Francis67.7%21-147Christian HeritageA Division II
45.80A Division IElbert County86.5%35-1916Jefferson CountyA Division I
45.75AAAAAAAWheeler64.9%17-107CampbellAAAAAAA
45.52AAAAAAJackson County66.8%16-79ApalacheeAAAAAA
45.47A Division IIBowdon74.1%28-1810TempleA Division I
45.41AAAthens Academy83.9%32-1616Mount VernonA Division I
45.21A Division IIJohnson County66.0%26-206Emanuel County InstituteA Division II
45.12AAAAAAAlpharetta93.1%38-1424PopeAAAAAA
45.06A Division IIEarly County67.9%21-147Mitchell CountyA Division II
45.05A Division IISchley County62.2%22-193Macon CountyA Division II
44.50AAAWesleyan50.8%20-200GilmerAAA
44.49AAALiberty County59.0%26-215Johnson (Savannah)AAA
43.94AAAAPerry99.1%38-038HowardAAAA
43.38AANorth Murray62.3%25-214Haralson CountyAA
42.76AABanks County58.6%20-164CommerceA Division I
42.27AAAAWest Laurens68.9%26-197GriffinAAAA
41.86AAAAAVilla Rica84.0%28-1414BannekerAAAAA
41.60A Division IMount Pisgah Christian75.0%27-1512First PresbyterianGIAA AAAA-AAA
40.81A Division IIManchester66.8%25-196Chattahoochee CountyA Division II
40.36AAASavannah Country Day65.0%20-146Long CountyAAA
40.34AAALumpkin County85.1%28-1315PickensAAA
40.21AAAACherokee Bluff81.6%28-1414North HallAAAA
40.06A Division IIWilcox County59.5%21-192Terrell CountyA Division II
39.73AAAAACreekside97.1%33-033Chapel HillAAAAA
39.19A Division IIDooly County81.3%27-1314Turner CountyA Division II
37.98AAARichmond Academy70.5%21-138Lincoln CountyA Division II
37.92A Division IDarlington95.6%40-1327Dade CountyA Division I
37.65GIAA AAAA-AAAPinewood Christian55.3%21-201Mount de SalesGIAA AAAA-AAA
37.60A Division ILamar County94.7%35-629Social CircleA Division I
37.47AAThomson97.4%37-037Washington CountyAA
37.28AAAPeach County98.0%37-037HardawayAAAA
36.89AAToombs County75.1%20-713Tattnall CountyAA
36.33AAPierce County99.3%41-041Brantley CountyAA
36.33A Division IBryan County67.8%28-217Telfair CountyA Division II
36.28AAAASoutheast Bulloch53.2%20-200HephzibahAAA
36.23AAAAAAWoodward Academy99.4%42-042AlcovyAAAAAA
35.10AAEagle's Landing Christian94.1%28-028Landmark ChristianAA
34.98AAAAAAAlexander83.6%24-618New ManchesterAAAAAA
34.43AAAMary Persons95.8%37-730ColumbusAAA
33.36AAAANorth Oconee99.3%40-040ChestateeAAAA
33.36A Division IIAquinas88.7%27-324GreenbrierAAAAA
33.34GIAA AAAA-AAAJohn Milledge Academy95.8%35-629Brookwood SchoolGIAA AAAA-AAA
32.31GIAA AAAA-AAADeerfield-Windsor75.4%27-1413Terrell AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
32.30AAAAWestminster (Atlanta)96.6%34-034RiverwoodAAAAAA
31.86AAAHebron Christian94.3%38-1325Athens ChristianA Division I
31.70AAAAAAAOsborne90.6%28-622Woodland (Cartersville)AAAAA
30.98A Division IScreven County79.7%25-1213Warren CountyA Division II
30.92AAAAAAAKennesaw Mountain99.4%42-042South CobbAAAAAA
30.58AAABremen80.0%21-714RidgelandAAA
30.29AANorth Cobb Christian92.0%28-028WashingtonAA
29.42AAAAALoganville99.4%42-042Heritage (Conyers)AAAAA
29.30AASpencer51.7%20-200RutlandAA
28.81AAAAACambridge98.8%42-042ChattahoocheeAAAAA
28.79AAACoahulla Creek87.5%30-1317Lakeview-Ft. OglethorpeAAA
28.61A Division IIMount Zion (Carroll)70.7%22-148Jasper CountyA Division I
28.51AAAAACass92.2%28-028M.L. KingAAAAA
28.22AAALaFayette61.9%21-183Gordon LeeAAA
27.47AAAAAADunwoody83.9%28-1216Lakeside (Atlanta)AAAAAA
27.30AAVidalia98.1%35-035Windsor ForestAA
27.26AASouth Atlanta97.1%35-035TherrellAA
27.18A Division IIMcIntosh County Academy92.2%27-027Bradwell InstituteAAAAA
26.88GIAA AThomas Jefferson77.3%22-1012Edmund Burke AcademyGIAA AA
25.94GIAA AABrentwood School61.9%21-165George Walton AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
25.74AACallaway97.8%37-037RedanAA
24.68GIAA AAAA-AAAHeritage (Newnan)66.4%28-217Calvary ChristianGAPPS AA
24.54GIAA AAAA-AAASt. Anne-Pacelli91.0%29-623Gatewood SchoolGIAA AA
23.74A Division IPepperell90.9%31-724ChattoogaA Division I
23.68A Division IIAtkinson County65.9%20-146Seminole CountyA Division II
23.44AAAAAAJonesboro97.4%36-036Rockdale CountyAAAAAA
23.06A Division IIClinch County97.1%35-035Frederica AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
23.02AAADouglass85.3%21-021LithoniaAAAAA
22.23A Division IIJenkins County85.9%27-720ClaxtonA Division I
19.90A Division IIPortal83.1%20-020Wilkinson CountyA Division II
18.93A Division IIWashington-Wilkes91.9%27-027Hancock CentralA Division II
17.20A Division IArmuchee55.6%16-142CoosaA Division I
16.80GIAA AAAA-AAAStrong Rock Christian92.4%34-727Lakeview AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
16.46AAAUpson-Lee96.6%33-033Mount Zion (Jonesboro)AAAA
16.33AAAAAAMundy's Mill98.5%36-036Forest ParkAAAAAA
16.27AAAAAArabia Mountain95.1%34-331Locust GroveAAAAA
16.17AAAAAAANorth Gwinnett99.8%42-042BerkmarAAAAAAA
16.01AAAAAAAForsyth Central94.0%38-1325SeckingerAAAA
13.99GIAA AASouthwest Georgia Academy70.6%22-148Fullington AcademyGIAA A
12.41AAAACedar Shoals97.9%37-037East HallAAAA
11.70GIAA AAAugusta Prep76.2%31-2110Glascock CountyA Division II
11.54AANortheast99.7%48-048SouthwestAA
10.87GIAA AACentral Fellowship Christian94.6%37-1027Piedmont AcademyGIAA AA
10.41AAAAAGreater Atlanta Christian99.4%38-038NorthviewAAAAA
9.86GIAA AAAA-AAABethlehem Christian Academy96.9%35-035King's Ridge ChristianA Division I
9.47GIAA AABriarwood Academy86.9%34-1420Trinity Christian (Dublin)GIAA AA
9.25A Division IIGreenville52.7%16-142Marion CountyA Division II
8.85AAADawson County99.5%42-042West HallAAA
8.33AAAASoutheast Whitfield85.9%29-1316Druid HillsAAAA
8.05AAAACairo99.8%45-045SalemAAA
7.61GIAA ARobert Toombs Academy88.0%28-919Georgia ChristianGIAA AA
7.27AAPutnam County99.6%40-040JoseyAA
5.89AAModel98.7%34-034Murray CountyAA
5.67A Division IIMontgomery County94.8%34-034TreutlenA Division II
5.43AAFannin County99.0%41-041Gordon CentralAA
1.26AAABeach92.4%28-028GrovesAAA
0.14AAColumbia99.8%42-042McNairAA
0.08AAEast Jackson96.1%28-028Johnson (Gainesville)AAAA
-0.35GAPPS AALanier Christian85.0%29-1415Pinecrest AcademyGAPPS AA
-0.97AAWestside (Augusta)93.3%32-626Glenn HillsAA
-1.65AACentral (Macon)96.0%36-630KendrickAA
-1.70A Division IHeard County99.4%40-040ClarkstonAAAA
-2.41GIAA AAAA-AAALoganville Christian56.2%18-144Lake Oconee AcademyA Division II
-4.97A Division IITwiggs County53.4%33-312Crawford CountyA Division I
-5.17AAAATrinity Christian (Sharpsburg)99.9%47-047North ClaytonAAAA
-6.22GIAA AAAA-AAASt. Andrew's School92.8%35-926Memorial DayGIAA A
-7.63A Division IOglethorpe County99.2%46-046Riverside Military AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
-11.62AAAHart County100.0%48-048Cross CreekAAA
-15.53GAPPS AASkipstone Academy98.9%41-041WalkerAA
-16.59GAPPS AARock Springs Christian54.3%14-140Grace ChristianGIAA A
-22.80AAAAShaw99.5%38-038JordanAA
-23.31GIAA AAAA-AAABulloch Academy99.3%41-041SavannahA Division I
-26.71A Division IIRandolph-Clay95.5%32-032Baconton CharterA Division II
-32.60GIAA AANotre Dame Academy73.9%20-713St. Mary's AcademyGIAA AA
-34.83A Division IITaylor County99.5%35-035Central (Talbotton)A Division II

Sep 24

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
13.43AALaney99.2%38-038ButlerAA