Maxwell Week 1 projections

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Aug 19

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
86.23AAAAAAAArcher66.5%24-186WestlakeAAAAAA
75.12AAAAAADacula81.1%28-1414TuckerAAAAAA
59.62AAAAHoward53.2%21-201Central (Macon)AAA
59.40AAAUpson-Lee68.1%23-176LaGrangeAAAA
37.30AAAAAChamblee68.8%25-196North SpringsAAAAA
36.81A PrivateSt. Anne-Pacelli81.3%28-1414JordanAAAA

Aug 20

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
91.51AAAAAABuford74.3%27-189North CobbAAAAAAA
85.47AAAAAAAllatoona60.8%20-155HarrisonAAAAAAA
85.13AAAAAAAColquitt County92.1%33-1221MariettaAAAAAAA
85.13AAAAAAANorcross70.0%25-178HillgroveAAAAAAA
81.76AAAAAAATift County53.3%20-182Crisp CountyAAA
79.93AAAAAAARoswell71.7%27-207South ForsythAAAAAAA
79.79AAAAJefferson70.2%27-207Rabun CountyAA
79.22AAAAAARome68.6%26-206RockmartAAA
78.40A PublicBrooks County58.8%23-212ThomasvilleAA
78.13AAAAAANorthside (Warner Robins)55.8%20-173VeteransAAAAA
77.30A PrivateEagle's Landing Christian71.0%26-188Woodward AcademyAAAAA
76.74AAAPierce County69.9%26-188BrunswickAAAAAA
76.26AAAAAAANewton60.1%21-183HughesAAAAAA
75.96AAAAAAANorth Paulding57.5%21-201South GwinnettAAAAAAA
75.88AAAAASt. Pius X56.7%21-201Flowery BranchAAAA
75.33AAFitzgerald73.0%24-1410CairoAAAA
74.93AAAAAAAMilton90.5%28-721Hapeville CharterAAAA
74.59AAAAADutchtown63.0%20-146LanierAAAAAA
73.87AAAACedartown56.0%20-173DenmarkAAAAAAA
72.92AAAAAAAGainesville55.3%21-201Johns CreekAAAAAA
72.61AAAAAAAGrayson98.3%37-037CreeksideAAAAA
72.19AAAAACalhoun78.3%26-1412DaltonAAAAAA
72.19AAAWestminster (Atlanta)64.5%21-147LovettAA
71.75AAAAAACreekview69.3%21-147EtowahAAAAAAA
71.55AAAAAAHouston County72.6%24-1410PerryAAAA
71.43AAAOconee County84.0%28-1414North OconeeAAAA
70.06AAAThomson51.2%22-211Jefferson CountyAA
69.95AAAAAAAWoodstock54.2%21-210SequoyahAAAAAA
69.76AAAABenedictine78.0%30-2010Burke CountyAAA
69.53AAAAAAAMountain View67.7%26-206ShilohAAAAAA
68.57AAAAAASprayberry65.9%23-185RiverwoodAAAAAA
67.85A PrivateAthens Academy81.1%27-1413Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)A Private
67.80AAAAWest Laurens63.2%22-193Bleckley CountyAA
67.09AAAAAStockbridge64.8%21-156Southwest DeKalbAAAAA
66.99AAAMonroe Area61.2%21-174LoganvilleAAAAA
66.92AAAAAAAPebblebrook56.3%21-201Peachtree RidgeAAAAAAA
66.83AAAATroup58.6%21-201Harris CountyAAAAA
66.64A PrivateFellowship Christian72.8%27-207Christian HeritageA Private
66.30A PrivatePrince Avenue Christian85.7%30-1416Calvary DayA Private
66.12AAAWhite County60.8%25-214Stephens CountyAAA
66.00AAAAAAAlexander76.8%28-1711Chapel HillAAAAA
65.17AAAAAClarke Central81.9%27-1413Cedar ShoalsAAAA
65.16AAAAAJones County91.4%32-1319NortheastAA
64.60AAAAAOla74.3%27-1710JacksonAAA
63.95AAAAAASouth Paulding68.9%25-196HiramAAAAA
63.73AADodge County73.7%27-1710Toombs CountyAA
63.55AAAAAWare County94.7%34-727CookAA
63.31A PublicMetter65.3%21-147SwainsboroAA
62.80AAAAAAEast Paulding71.8%24-168Kennesaw MountainAAAAAA
62.14AAADawson County71.0%26-179CassAAAAA
62.09A PublicPelham55.2%24-213Mitchell CountyA Public
61.41AAPepperell53.2%21-210Haralson CountyAA
61.09AAANorth Hall62.1%24-213Paulding CountyAAAAAA
60.73AAAAAAHabersham Central69.1%26-197Madison CountyAAAA
60.60AAAAAANorth Atlanta53.7%21-201WheelerAAAAAA
60.52AAAHart County75.7%27-1710Elbert CountyAA
60.18AAAAAACarrollton96.2%35-629New ManchesterAAAAA
60.17AAAABaldwin77.7%26-1412Liberty CountyAAA
59.40A PrivateMount Vernon Presbyterian50.6%21-210Whitefield AcademyA Private
58.87AAAAAAGlynn Academy91.5%28-721McIntosh County AcademyA Public
58.54AAAAWestover56.3%20-182Sumter CountyAAA
58.25AAFannin County65.2%24-204Union CountyAA
58.10AAAAABlessed Trinity98.7%40-040Woodland (Stockbridge)AAAAA
58.05AAAANew Hampstead66.0%21-156Windsor ForestAAA
57.81AAAAAARiver Ridge81.8%26-1313LassiterAAAAAA
57.41A PrivateSavannah Christian79.5%28-1414Emanuel County InstituteA Public
57.24AAAAAAAAlpharetta91.0%31-1219ChattahoocheeAAAAAA
56.98AAAAAACentral Gwinnett70.5%26-188DiscoveryAAAAAAA
56.78AAAAAALovejoy89.7%30-1218Mundy's MillAAAAA
56.38AAAAAAPope71.5%26-188Villa RicaAAAAA
55.95AAAAAAAMeadowcreek57.9%23-212Eagle's LandingAAAAA
55.90A PrivateSavannah Country Day55.6%22-211Bulloch AcademyGISA AAA
55.77A PublicTurner County72.4%26-179Worth CountyAA
55.71AAAAStephenson86.7%27-819LithoniaAAAAA
55.53AAAAAAWinder-Barrow85.6%28-1414ApalacheeAAAAA
55.49AAAAAAANorth Forsyth91.5%31-922AlcovyAAAAAA
55.12AAHeard County83.3%27-1314South AtlantaAA
55.05AATemple56.8%21-201BowdonA Public
54.74AAAAAAALambert81.6%29-1712CentennialAAAAAA
54.73AAAAWestside (Macon)75.8%27-1710Bradwell InstituteAAAAAA
54.22AAAAAAAForsyth Central86.9%29-1415NorthviewAAAAA
53.54A PrivateWesleyan91.7%30-723Mount Pisgah ChristianA Private
53.39AAADouglass74.8%25-1411WashingtonAA
53.03AAARichmond Academy77.1%24-1410Hancock CentralA Public
52.35AAAAppling County94.7%33-627MonroeAAAA
52.24AAAAArabia Mountain65.7%22-184Rockdale CountyAAAAAA
51.95AAAAdairsville63.8%21-174ChattoogaAA
51.87AAAAAADouglas County94.1%31-625Lithia SpringsAAAAA
51.82AAAAAAACampbell60.3%21-174GrovetownAAAAAA
51.81AAAAAJonesboro80.4%23-1013Mount Zion (Jonesboro)AAAA
51.76AAAAAAACamden County98.4%36-036ColumbiaAA
51.76AAAAALocust Grove74.1%27-198South CobbAAAAAA
51.59AAModel54.4%20-200SonoravilleAAA
51.47A PrivateAquinas75.8%27-1710HarlemAAA
51.36AAAAAGriffin93.8%33-726SpaldingAAAA
51.30AAAAACartersville99.5%41-041MorrowAAAAAA
51.28AAASoutheast Bulloch58.6%22-202Screven CountyA Public
50.98A PublicAtkinson County64.4%24-204Bacon CountyAA
50.44A PublicMarion County82.2%27-1413Dooly CountyA Public
49.75AALamar County54.3%21-201Pike CountyAAA
49.51A PublicSchley County67.5%21-147Deerfield-WindsorA Private
49.47AAAAANorthside (Columbus)59.0%26-215ColumbusAAAA
49.44AAAAAWalnut Grove53.5%16-142Miller GroveAAAA
48.83AAAAACoffee99.1%38-038DrewAAAAA
48.57A PublicWarren County67.8%21-147Jenkins CountyA Public
48.13GISA AAASouthland Academy64.4%21-156Terrell AcademyGISA AA
47.94AAAALuella61.2%21-192McIntoshAAAAA
47.85AAAAAAHeritage (Conyers)81.7%27-1413SalemAAA
47.58AAAAFayette County72.0%21-147MidtownAAAAA
47.30AAAAAUnion Grove92.3%30-723HamptonAAAA
47.05AAAAADecatur87.9%27-720DunwoodyAAAAAAA
46.97AAAAHeritage (Ringgold)81.8%28-1414Lakeview-Ft. OglethorpeAAA
46.92A PrivateMount de Sales73.0%25-169Jasper CountyAA
46.29A PublicCharlton County76.1%26-1412Brantley CountyAAA
44.73A PublicChattahoochee County81.9%24-1212Miller CountyA Public
44.44A PublicClaxton75.5%26-1412Tattnall CountyAAA
43.98A PublicWashington-Wilkes89.9%27-621LaneyAA
43.68AAAAPickens83.1%27-1314GilmerAAA
43.03A PrivateNorth Cobb Christian92.2%31-922St. FrancisA Private
42.94AAAAAM.L. King88.6%28-919McDonoughAAAA
42.83A PrivateMount Paran Christian85.5%27-1215Lakeview AcademyA Private
42.31A PublicB.E.S.T. Academy68.4%21-147SpencerAAAA
42.27AAAAAWoodland (Cartersville)83.2%26-1214Gordon CentralAA
41.66AAAWest Hall73.6%27-198East JacksonAAA
41.42A PrivateAthens Christian73.3%26-179WalkerA Private
41.33AAAAABanneker89.4%28-721KIPP Atlanta CollegiateAA
40.97A PrivateBrookstone82.6%27-1413Calvary ChristianGAPPS AA
40.34AABremen97.0%34-034Landmark ChristianA Private
40.08A PublicGordon Lee82.1%28-1414Dade CountyAA
39.99A PublicCommerce97.1%34-034Banks CountyAA
39.24AAJeff Davis94.8%34-727RutlandAAAA
38.54A PrivateGeorge Walton Academy95.9%35-728Social CircleA Public
38.21AAEarly County96.2%34-034Seminole CountyA Public
37.76AAAMurray County61.3%23-203Southeast WhitfieldAAAA
37.43AAAANorthwest Whitfield95.0%34-628Coahulla CreekAAA
37.15AAWestside (Augusta)76.3%24-1410Greene CountyA Public
37.00A PrivateHeritage (Newnan)84.7%28-1414GreenvilleA Public
36.41A PublicTelfair County88.4%29-1316Wheeler CountyA Public
36.18AAACherokee Bluff90.7%30-1020Johnson (Gainesville)AAAAA
35.88A PublicLanier County84.0%28-1414TreutlenA Public
35.75GISA AABriarwood Academy79.3%28-1513Piedmont AcademyGISA AA
34.83A PrivateLoganville Christian70.2%24-177Providence ChristianA Private
34.17AAAARiverdale97.6%34-034North ClaytonAAAA
34.09GISA AAACreekside Christian67.5%22-166Georgia Military CollegeA Public
32.88AAAAAAABerkmar60.7%21-183Lakeside (Atlanta)AAAAAA
32.53AAAAAAEvans98.3%35-035Cross CreekAAA
32.23GISA AAAPinewood Christian94.3%35-1025Robert Toombs AcademyGISA AA
32.14AABerrien89.9%31-1318Long CountyAAA
32.14AATherrell76.3%26-1412Glenn HillsAA
32.06AAAAAStone Mountain81.3%28-1414Druid HillsAAAA
31.94GISA AAMemorial Day74.6%24-1410SavannahAAA
31.89A PrivateStrong Rock Christian87.5%30-1416Bethlehem Christian AcademyGISA AAA
31.33A PublicTowns County58.8%21-201Pinecrest AcademyGAPPS AA
30.56AAAMary Persons98.9%37-037TowersAA
29.89A PublicTerrell County89.0%28-1018KendrickAAAA
29.43AAButler78.3%26-1412Bryan CountyA Public
29.36AAAFranklin County96.8%35-035Lumpkin CountyAAA
28.98GAPPS AAKing's Academy59.5%21-183ArmucheeA Public
24.45AAAAAForest Park77.9%27-1413McNairAA
23.46AAAADougherty95.7%34-628Randolph-ClayA Public
22.42AAEast Laurens91.8%31-1021Twiggs CountyA Public
22.03GISA AASouthwest Georgia Academy95.0%34-727Baconton CharterA Public
21.01A PublicTaylor County98.1%40-238Crawford CountyA Public
19.67A PublicMount Zion (Carroll)97.7%35-035Central (Talbotton)A Public
19.24AAAAJenkins99.5%41-041GrovesAAA
18.41AAAARidgeland99.0%40-040East ForsythAAA
17.31GAPPS AFlint River Academy87.0%28-1216Pataula CharterA Public
14.43GAPPS AASkipstone Academy65.4%21-165Cherokee ChristianGAPPS AA
11.60GAPPS ALafayette Christian72.8%26-1610Griffin ChristianGAPPS A
0.10AAAAACross Keys65.1%24-204Rock Springs ChristianGAPPS A
-0.80A PublicGlascock County88.7%29-1316GSICA Public

Aug 21

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
92.22AAAAAWarner Robins59.4%25-214ValdostaAAAAAA
89.97AAAAAAAParkview57.3%22-211Mill CreekAAAAAAA
84.05AAAAAAALowndes89.6%30-1218WaltonAAAAAAA
82.90AAAAAAACollins Hill65.1%24-204BrookwoodAAAAAAA
78.23AAAAAAAMcEachern72.9%27-198KellAAAAAA
76.10AAAAAStarr's Mill51.4%21-201NewnanAAAAAAA
73.97AAAAAALee County94.0%34-826Carver (Columbus)AAAA
64.89AAAAAWayne County83.2%27-1413StatesboroAAAAAA
63.65AAASandy Creek82.9%27-1314NorthgateAAAAA
60.71A PublicClinch County85.6%28-1414Macon CountyA Public
59.86AAAAAAAEast Coweta93.7%33-726WhitewaterAAAAA
22.25A PrivateFirst Presbyterian98.3%38-038ACE CharterA Public